The Australian reports the latest Newspoll shows the parties still araldited together on 50-50, with Labor’s primary vote on 35 per cent (38.0 per cent at the election, 34 per cent in the Newspoll of September 10-12), the Coalition on 42 per cent (43.6 per cent and 41 per cent) and the Greens on 14 per cent (11.8 per cent and 14 per cent). This is despite a sharp deterioration in Tony Abbott’s personal ratings, which have seen a 9 per cent drop in approval (to 39 per cent) and rise in disapproval (47 per cent). By contrast, Julia Gillard is up four points on approval to 48 per cent and down three on disapproval to 33 per cent, and her lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 50-34 to 52-31. Full tables courtesy of GhostWhoVotes.
Going through the responses in the Grattan peice. I am a little concerned about how people in Australia form their views.
If you had a friend and found out said friend had deliberately set out to decieve you about how shared funds were accounted for; and that friend had also reneged on a written promise; and deliberately caused offense everywhere they went, it wouldn’t take long before you realised that said friend could not be trusted on any level and you would quickly ditch that friend forever.
Yet, their are members of the Australian public who are prepared to accept that the Petulant Catholic Manchild deliberately mislead the Australian taxpaying public about how he was going to spend their hard-earned cash. Just so he could become PM.
He signed written agreements, sealed it with a group hug and then, because he couldn’t become PM, chucked a tanty and reneged on the deal.
He continues to embarrass all Australians by trashing the very office he holds so dear, by using obscenities. Because someone else is PM.
I cannot fathom what standards some of these Liberal supporters live by, because I could never continue to support a friend or a political party, who exhibited this type of behaviour.
[Given the next federal election won’t probably be until sept 2013, who is Abbott pitching too ?]
tjhats not what the betting markets say
I appreciate that PB has its own comedians. I really enjoy a good laugh at GeeWizz contributions, helps me have a good day.
At least I am assuming it is humour, nobody could believe all that could they?
I wouldn’t bother worrying about what Glover or Brent think. They are just making things up because they can’t read the 50/50 message. Once Newspoll starts to show widening they will pretend to be able to analyse that too.
@ GeeWhizz
Why would Gillard call an early election ?
[ tjhats not what the betting markets say ]
These the same betting markets that said Labor was going to win the WA election in 2008? Seems like a good bookie to put your money on the rank outsider with.
GEORGE – Not as good, I know.
There was a pollie called abbott
Who threw off the Catholic habit
And wanted to imbed,
with the soldiers instead,
But ended up looking an idiot.
[Awesome. 🙂 It must be kind of fun being that crazy.]
Good one, pancho.
GeeWizz @ 152
[tjhats not what the betting markets say]
The betting markets don’t set the date for the next election, you fool.
That will be decided by the Prime Minister, or on the floor of the House of Representatives by the holders of the balance of power, the Independents who have already committed to the maintenance of the Gillard Government for a full 3 year term, barring egregious misgovernment, or a by election that alters the numbers.
You’re pitching into the dirt with your ill informed drivel.
Dong, 153:
[ At least I am assuming it is humour, nobody could believe all that could they? ]
I saw an interesting little thing on Facebook last night – a race-hate group with the charming title of ‘lets all go to Asia and see how they like it’ created on Saturday night, managed to get roughly 45,000 members between then and Monday night, before being vanished by Facebook (who generally squash things like that). Assuming a constant rate of people joining it (yeah, I know it’s just clicking a button, but it still means something), that’s one every four seconds or so. Moral of that story: there’s people out there who’ll believe just about anything, and quite a few of them too. Cronulla didn’t come from nowhere, eh.
Poss
[Ultimately, we all live and die by our ethical character. The choices we make on issues like this (and a great, great many others) are the choices *we* make.]
Nice to meet a fellow Existentialist!
Actually Gee Whizz represents many Coalition supporters in that he lives in hope that someone will die and we will have a bi-election and that will save them from doing the hard yards in opposition that their party desperately needs. Or that somehow if they abuse the Indies hard enough they will come to their senses and gift government to them. They use the betting market as a way of deluding themselves that government is close. It explains why Abbott is in attack mode. He actually believes that at any moment the wind will change and the power will be his. If he can just convince someone that Julia is the wrong choice by calling her names.
In reality, every day that passes the opposition moves farther away from government. Their desperate behaviour confirms to the undies that made the right decision. They are not ready to govern. They do not have the talent. They should have stuck with Turnbull and regrouped and rejuvenated but that didn’t suit Murdoch and the mining magnates. They have been dragged to the line to be a puppet government to protect foreign interests – they failed in their task and are in denial.
[Abbott may soon be in dire need of some anti psychotics to tame his dementia.]
TBS. Is that a professional opinion?
@Scringler,
It is not dementia – dementia sufferers simply forget.
Alison Carabine was having a hard time on ABC 702 Sydney this morning trying to defend the coalition – specifically Pyne’s contribution yesterday.
Alison and Deborah Cameron discussed the ‘b’ word at length.
I think a lot of people in the coalition want the Afghan issue to go away and won’t be happy with what Pyne said yesterday.
John Reidy
Did these journos suggest that maybe Abbott and Pyne have overreached?
Good morning from drenched SEQ, Bludgers
Well, what a morning. There really was a newspoll; though why the OO sat on it an extra day is beyond me, unless it was in the hope that Abbott (who, with Julia, was probably told the results Sunday night) might redeem himself yesterday. No such luck, NewsLtd! His hyperboles went stratospheric, giving the Oz public the spectacle of a blokey “alternative PM” trying to cover his own shortcomings by taking it out on “a girl”! Genius?
[confessions
Tone really needs to stop with this Afghanistan thing. Here he is again, front page of the OO online. “Gillard ambushed me!” ]
Then GW aka TTH, came up with this effort from Looking Glass Land
[Geewizz
I think there is a growing concern out there in the community that we don’t actually have a government at the moment.
Now I know that the Labor supporters will say yes we do on paper, but have a look at Gillard lately… withdrawn… out of touch… sitting quietly andout of the way. It’s sort of like the Granny at the christmas party no one talks to, push her wheelchair into the corner and give her a bit of cake and she’s happy.]
And suddenly, from the very dim past – 1950s? 60s? – came these lines from what was one of the era’s most chanted lyrics: Lard’s They’re Coming To Take Me Away (choose the video for the military background – “listen now” is a different song )
[You thought it was joke and so you laughed, you laughed when I had said that losing … would make me flip my lid, right? You know you laughed, I heard you laugh, you laughed, you laughed and laughed and then you left, but now you know I’m utterly mad.
And they’re coming to take me away Ha Ha
They’re coming to take me away ho ho he he ha ha
To the happy home with trees and flowers and chirping birds and basket weavers who sit and smile and twiddle their thumbs and toes
They’re coming to take me away ha ha..]
http://www.metrolyrics.com/theyre-coming-to-take-me-away-lyrics-lard.html
And we thought Mark Latham was nuts!
Just to prove that Anna Bligh knows how to lose votes on more issues than just running the economy, a Cairns couple is about to go on trial for illegalling importing the drug RU486 (one dose for their personal use) that is legal in Queensland??!!
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/abortion-trial-is-not-just-about-women-20101011-16f9x.html
If the Qld Labor Party is reallyt this conservative, then it deserves to lose. It has obviously been taken over by some kind of right wing Catholic mafia within the Labor Party, for this case to even go to trial. Shades of Tony Abbott as health minister.
OPT
I hope all is well in Qld, with all that rain happening?
What is your assessment as to how this whole saga with Abbott will ultimately play out?
Yes they did Victoria, but gently. Deb Cameron is left leaning (called a deep green socialist by the OO) . In these exchanges Cameron typically takes Alisons lead.
Has this Newspoll been mentioned at all on the ABC? It would be so unlike the broadcaster to ignore it….
@OzPolTragic,
Does this mean that we will have to go through the same drivel, that other also-ran, Latham, put us through? You know the battery-acid vitriol, the blaming and shaming in an autobiography that collects dust in the clearance bin, and being pulled out as a lame 60 minutes reporter, during the next elections.
John Reidy
I suppose gently is better than not at all.
Gweneth @ 162
[Their desperate behaviour confirms to the undies that made the right decision. They are not ready to govern.]
Correct – everything that we have seen from Abbott and the Coalition since the deals made by the ALP with the Independents and Greens were agreed must reinforce in the minds of the holders of the balance of power that they did, indeed, make the right decision in backing Julie Gillard to form Government.
By what cryptic measure could the Coalition be deluding themselves that the Independents can be cajoled, or hectored into changing their decision, and backing an Abbott Government into power, given the assaults on the integrity and motives of the Independents by the Coalition, their boosters in the Murdoch Media and their thin echoes in the subverted ABC?
Is this how you ‘persuade’ those in doubt to support your point of view in the Abbott Universe?
If that is the case, and it certainly seems that way by the actions of the Leader of the Opposition and his attack dogs, then 3 more years in the wilderness is the least that Tony Abbott can expect, and most of that will not be as the Leader, if Turnbull and Co. move in for the kill in the wake of the inevitable falling poll approvals.
@The Big Ship,
Turnbull won’t have to move into the kill, the rest of those rats in the Liberal ranks will mutiny and bow at Turnbull’s feet begging him to take the helm.
Space Kidette/TBS
But according to recent polls, Turnbull still very unpopular with the electorate.
Scringler @ 163
[Is that a professional opinion?]
Merely the musings of a semi-informed amateur – it is amazing how one can pretend to authority with the aid of ‘wikapedia!’
Opposition is growing to Rupe trying to take over B-Sky-B in Britain.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2010/oct/11/sky-murdoch-takeover-bid-analysis
Does anyone doubt that Rupert sees Foxtel as the crown-jewel of the media in this country and will do anything to junk the NBN?
george, how’s the progress?
@victoria,
He is an elected member. He can be annointed leader of the opposition regardless of what the electorate think.
And I ask you, in all honesty, who on earth in that rat-infested ship is possible contender for leader of the opposition?
Great response from Craig Emerson to Abbott:
[Trade Minister Craig Emerson told Sky News it was “not as if the Labor party had put into Tony Abbott’s mouth the words that he didn’t want to be jetlagged for his visit to the conservative party convention in the United Kingdom”.
“Tony Abbott is responsible for those words and the Australian people will make a judgment one way or the other about that.]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/tony-abbott-says-hes-a-victim-of-a-political-ambush-over-afghanistan/story-fn59niix-1225937476243
VICTORIA – Is that right? Tone is very popular with rusted-on libs, but he doesn’t attract the swinging voters, whereas Turnbull is the opposite, methinks.
[ROD – Kristina Kenneally has also been considerably more popular than O’Farrell, but it hasn’t made any difference to her party’s fortunes.]
Indeed, rosa, but I was responding to incorrect suggestions that Rudd had always been more popular than Gillard. They were complete nonsense.
We’ll never know what would have happened if Rudd had stayed as PM, and there isn’t much point speculating about it accordingly, but if the level of satisfaction revealed by the polls during his final months had held sway I don’t think we would be looking at a Labor government right now!
In fact – the betting markets simply represent that view. The Coalition supporters who are trying to wish a new election into being are so convinced that this MUST be the outcome they put their money up. So they then convince themselves that that is some kind of magic portent of the future when it really only describes the wishes of the present.
Off to work I go! Catch you at the end of the day.
Space Kidette
Agreed, Turnbull is their only shining light.
rosa
I don’t exactly recall, but recent polls suggested that Turnbull was more unpopular than Abbott.
victoria @ 176
[But according to recent polls, Turnbull still very unpopular with the electorate.]
If Abbott’s personal numbers start to go south in a big way, and the 2PP polling numbers start to diverge in the Government’s favour, then the polling questions about the Liberal leadership will bring the two candidates into sharper contrast, probably pulling Turnbull’s numbers up at Abbott’s expense, as the pollsters have to get it to add to 100%.
The failed and discredited JW Howard’s polling numbers were bad when he was deposed from the Opposition leader’s position in 1989 and sent into political exile for 6 years, and they were not much better when he ultimately came back to the Liberal leadership when no-one else could be found to turn to in 1995, so poor personal polling numbers do not prevent a candidate from winning a leadership ballot if the alternative contender is polling even worse.
[We need real governance and I think this will be Abbott’s key pitch for a new election.]
Given that Abbott is increasingly demonstrating that he can’t even govern his tongue, whizzer, the notion of him having to deal with something the size of a country is farcical.
Don’t take too much notice of the polls, whizzer. Abbott is simply shot, now. The ammunition he has provided to his opponents since the election (the black hole, shooting off his mouth about jetlag, his incompetence when negotiating with the Indis etc) would be devastating in any campaign. The Libs best chance now really would be to hang off for as long as possible while they elect a new leade.
rosa @157 – 😆
[george, how’s the progress?]
centaur – will be finalising some of the hardcopy stuff this week/weekend. Reconstructing the DL as we type 🙂
Carabine and Cameron also discussed the Newspoll Carabine said on the ppm figures
[sometimes it is hard to see why a leaders score changes]
As far a Tony Abbott is concernedI would say this is not one of those times.
TBS/Rod Hagen
You both make very salient points.
maybe Abbott’s behaviour over the past week, reflects that his leadership is “circling the drain”
[Why would Gillard call an early election ?]
She won’t, Oakeshott and Windsor will.
[She won’t, Oakeshott and Windsor will.]
We have now entered the twilight zone…
[Does anyone doubt that Rupert sees Foxtel as the crown-jewel of the media in this country and will do anything to junk the NBN?]
I don’t doubt it for a nanosecond, rosa. The NBN is a threat to Murdoch’s interests and must be destroyed.
GW
I think you say ridiculous things for attention. There can be no other reason
@GeeWizz,
Haven’t they already agreed the election month and year, the only thing to be settled is which weekend.
@Rosa, Scringler
It is a clear cut case of Democracy versus Murdochracy.
[Merely the musings of a semi-informed amateur – it is amazing how one can pretend to authority with the aid of ‘wikapedia!’]
TBS: Sounded good, though. I was impressed.