Newspoll: 50-50

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll shows the parties still araldited together on 50-50, with Labor’s primary vote on 35 per cent (38.0 per cent at the election, 34 per cent in the Newspoll of September 10-12), the Coalition on 42 per cent (43.6 per cent and 41 per cent) and the Greens on 14 per cent (11.8 per cent and 14 per cent). This is despite a sharp deterioration in Tony Abbott’s personal ratings, which have seen a 9 per cent drop in approval (to 39 per cent) and rise in disapproval (47 per cent). By contrast, Julia Gillard is up four points on approval to 48 per cent and down three on disapproval to 33 per cent, and her lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 50-34 to 52-31. Full tables courtesy of GhostWhoVotes.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,580 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  1. george

    On one hand, I am happy for him to continue making a complete fool of himself, but I daresay he thinks some of this will stick against the PM

  3. george @ 79

    [So what do Bludgers think, should the PM hit back with “stop being a child, let’s get on with the business of running the country” or just ignore the fool?]

    Best for PM Gillard to say nothing about this latest maniacal outburst – Abbott’s big mouth is his own worst enemy.

  5. The Big Ship

    I hope you are right. As I just stated in my earlier post. I believe Abbott and the coalition will say anything however inaccurate, hoping some of it will be negative for the PM. Also, it is to fit in with their meme of an unstable govt. I can think of no other reason. Unless, Abbott knows his leadership is becoming tenuous, and he is fighting for survival.

  6. Rosa

    not being from NSW i may not know what i am talking about

    but think this is a different scenerio here with NSW they are coming to the end of a very long time in office, with lots of nasties behind them so i have read.

  7. [So what do Bludgers think, should the PM hit back with “stop being a child, let’s get on with the business of running the country” or just ignore the fool?]

    What the latest opinion polls show is that the electorate had an expectation of a constructive parliament which the old guard of the Liberal party is failing to deliver. A nine per cent shift downwards is a rejection of the Wrecker.

    Who from the Coalition will rise to the challenge?

    Certainly not Tony Abbott or his attack dog Christopher Pyne.

    Not Joe Hockey or Warren Truss, both of whom are more interested in reviving the rejected industrial relations policies of the Howard era.

    Nor is it Jule Bishop, whose sole contribution to politics since the election appears to have been seeking to generate a rift within Labor.

    Who will it be?

  9. Rewi Lyall

    I posed this question last night. Is there any newly elected talented member on the coalition side who we do not know about?

  10. victoria, Abbott really needs to shut up and move on to another issue. He is coming across as a petulent sore loser. His complaints about the Labor party being ‘bastards’ are just pathetic. If I was in politics and some one accused me of ‘machiavellian bastardy’, I’d be taking it as the ultimate compliment

  11. my say

    Abbott is also politicising the Afghan mission by suggesting that perhaps the troops are not being well served by the govt. Even though command has said that the troops are very well equipped and if there were any issues, would not hesitate to let the govt know. Again Abbott is trying to show that the Labor govt is not doing its job properly. Thank goodness we have Stephen Smith in the job right now.

  12. madcyril

    I agree, but the ABC and probably Sk (whom I do not watch much) are giving Abbott oxygen to malign the govt without recourse. That is what is concerning to me.

  13. [get on with the business of running the country” or just ignore the fool?

    Best for PM Gillard to say nothing about this latest maniacal outburst – Abbott’s big mouth is his own worst enemy.]

    yes be dignified and constructive and that is what she is doing.

    we expect just that from Julia if she got involved in a slagging match i would be very dissapointed i think this is what they may be trying to do, and she is not playing their game.

    Come to think of it i dont remember any thing like this type of nonsence since i was old enough to vote does any one else.

  14. Morning, Bludgers 🙂

    The unhinging is well underway. And your everyday person on the street – normally removed from such things – are actually starting to notice.

    Julia’s response needs to be just to smile and say, “I think Mr Rabbot’s words speak for themselves.”

    We’ll all know what she means 😆

  15. [Even though command has said that the troops are very well equipped and if there were any issues, would not hesitate to let the govt know. Again Abbott is trying to show that the Labor govt is not doing its job properly. Thank goodness we have Stephen Smith in the job right now.]

    yes i noticed a letter to the paper yesterday indicating this, so may be they organise what they are going to say for the week,

  16. Just head ABC report. It started with the words “Opposition Leader Tony Abbott is not confident that the govt is serving the soldiers well”. How frustrating.

  18. before i go Julia is a very smart lady and very wise, give her credit for knowing what she is about.

    I dont think most people even realise she has put lots of work in to committee stages already, i think thats very good going,
    can any one remember the date we got the go ahead from the ind. around the second week in September wasn’t it,

    so now its only about a month. early days.

  20. For rosa:

    There once was a petal called Tony,
    Indignant, obnoxious and phoney,
    “Bastardy is a-foot”
    He would yell from his ute,
    ‘Twas all just a load of baloney.

  21. [Just head ABC report. It started with the words “Opposition Leader Tony Abbott is not confident that the govt is serving the soldiers well”. How frustrating.]

    Yes, based on a quick trip, fiddling about with some equipment and with his HUGE insight on how a war is run. Do us all a favour and go kick a football Tone.

  22. Has anyone else posted a link to this article by Dennis Glover. It makes for a quite interesting read.

    [
    Palin and the Tea Party’s potency is their ability to project belief and take people with them. They have the capacity – all too rare today – to interest everyday people in a political program that’s fundamentally based on ideas. Those ideas may be at odds with economic common sense, flaky and at times ugly, but they are put with edge and passion. Therein lies the lesson for progressives in both the US and Australia: the need to fight passion with passion, belief with belief.

    Compare the gutsy if inane rhetoric of the US Right with that we hear from the American and Australian Centre-Left. Progressives are forever appealing to (an often illusory) consensus, always “taking advice on that”, “waiting for the evidence to come in”, “not wanting to pre-judge the findings of a forthcoming independent report”, and “respecting other people’s beliefs”.

    All of which in moderation are fine, but taken to excess, and done without even a semblance of ideological conviction, they can become a substitute for leadership and decision-making. In short, Australian progressives are becoming data and process junkies
    ]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/labor-should-learn-from-the-passionate-ms-palin/story-e6frg6zo-1225937348464

  23. victoria @ 105

    [Unless, Abbott knows his leadership is becoming tenuous, and he is fighting for survival.]

    We should not forget that Tony Abbott only won the Liberal leadership ballot in December 2009 by 42 votes to 41 after one Liberal member (Fran Bailey, who would almost certainly have voted for Malcolm Turnbull) was unable to vote, being absent due to illness. 42 all = Turnbull continues as Leader.

    The Liberal Party is still fractured along the same fratricidal and policy lines as in December 2009, despite Abbott’s near success in the recent Federal Election, and it will only take a couple of months of slipping poll results for the knives to be withdrawn from their scabbards and positioned behind Abbott’s back – that is the nature and the reality of politics in Opposition.

  25. Paul Howes is releasing a book on the election campaign

    [
    PAUL Howes, the union leader who helped end Kevin Rudd’s prime ministership, has written an account of the federal election campaign.

    Melbourne University Publishing is promoting Confessions of a Faceless Man: Inside Campaign 2010 as an “unvarnished” and “brutally honest” partisan account of how federal Labor won the August 21 election.

    Former ALP powerbroker Graham Richardson will launch the diary-style book by Mr Howes, the Australian Workers Union national secretary, in Sydney on November 8. Former Liberal Party Victorian president Michael Kroger, who debated with Mr Howes on television and radio throughout the election campaign, will launch it in Melbourne on November 10.

    MUP describes the book as an “insider’s account of modern campaigning ALP-style”.

    “Strategy meets stuff-ups in this fascinating day-by-day chronicle of the five-week campaign and the 17 days of uncertainty that followed,” it says.

    ]
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/arts/a-faceless-labor-man-gives-the-inside-story/story-e6frg8nf-1225937357231

  26. [All of which in moderation are fine, but taken to excess, and done without even a semblance of ideological conviction, they can become a substitute for leadership and decision-making. In short, Australian progressives are becoming data and process junkies]

    But what would be the alternative madcyril? If we played the right-wingers game and did everything through a “gut feel” and acting on fake “sloganism” where would that lead us? I guess if we could wrap the data and process with a long term vision, and continually reinforced it and revisited it at each opportunity that might at least bring along some of the dolts in our society who couldn’t keep the concentration span of a gnat.

  28. [Yep, I thought, surely this is a repeat from yesterday. But no, the a**hole is still banging on about it.]

    He’s still reeling from the media having dared to criticise him. He’s so accustomed to blanket boosting that when the situation changes, even incrementally, he’s unable to cope. Hence the behaviour even more unhinged that usual. Now with his approval dropping sharply, the media attention might be even more unfavourable, sending him deeper into an aggressive, self-destructive spiral. There’s a good chance he will lash out at the media next, which should be highly entertaining. Time to stock up on popcorn!

  32. George/madcyril

    speaking of Tea Party. Jon Faine will be speaking Greg Sheridan shortly, who has just returned from the US. This will be the topic of discussion.

  35. [“Why do Liberal South Australia pollies have that accent? (Or “Cultivated Australian English” as Wikipedia calls it)

    Please explain with reference to Pyne and Downer.”

    St Peters College]

    St Peters College? He’s another of the Libs Jesuit OBs

    [Pyne was born in Adelaide, South Australia in 1967, and was educated at Saint Ignatius College, South Australia and the University of Adelaide,]

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_Pyne

  36. Australian voters don’t mind their politicians lying and they don’t really care if they are rather odious, but they hate it when their politicians crack under pressure.

    Now julia just has to stay relaxed (as she is doing brilliantly) to point up the contrast.

  37. I think there is a growing concern out there in the community that we don’t actually have a government at the moment.

    Now I know that the Labor supporters will say yes we do on paper, but have a look at Gillard lately… withdrawn… out of touch… sitting quietly andout of the way. It’s sort of like the Granny at the christmas party no one talks to, push her wheelchair into the corner and give her a bit of cake and she’s happy.

    We need real governance and I think this will be Abbott’s key pitch for a new election.

  38. fran kelly had a great interview this morning with bruce guthrie (sacked editor of Herald Sun) on his new book – unloads on New limited and rupert.

  39. confessions

    Jon Faine on ABC radio just read out a SMS. Person said wtte that as Gillard has not defended Abbott’s accusations, it proves that she is guilty!

  40. [I think there is a growing concern out there in the community that we don’t actually have a government at the moment.

    Now I know that the Labor supporters will say yes we do on paper, but have a look at Gillard lately… withdrawn… out of touch… sitting quietly andout of the way. It’s sort of like the Granny at the christmas party no one talks to, push her wheelchair into the corner and give her a bit of cake and she’s happy.

    We need real governance and I think this will be Abbott’s key pitch for a new election.]

    Awesome. 🙂 It must be kind of fun being that crazy.

  41. [I think there is a growing concern out there in the community that we don’t actually have a government at the moment.]

    welcome to the CheezeWheeze polling company

  42. I think there is a growing concern out there in the community that we don’t actually have an opposition leader that is sane at the moment.

    Now I know that the Liberal supporters will say yes we do on paper, but have a look at Abbott lately… paranoid … out of control … complaining about the mean Labor party that is out to get him. It’s sort of like the Mad Uncle at the christmas party no one talks to, give him some booze and hope he doesn’t break anything.

    We need real governance and I think this will be Gillard’s key pitch at the next election.

  43. vik

    I agree that is the right strategy but I found this paragraph a bit dismaying:
    [But there is an awareness in the government that at the end of the process, a carbon price or fixed emissions trading scheme could be agreed on, but the two parties could still differ over what price to put on a tonne of carbon. The Greens are unlikely to accept anything less than $23, which was recommended as an interim measure after the emissions trading scheme collapsed. The government would want a price of about half that to lessen the impact as the scheme began.]

    A carbon price of “about half” of $23/tonne ($12/tonne) would just be a cynical stunt to appease the pro-pollution trogs in the Labor far right. They shouldn’t assume that that price would fool many people concerned about climate change either. I sometimes suspect that many on the Labor far-right don’t actually know much about climate change science. I am reminded of some questions from Psephos about Fielding’s graphs that suggested he had never read the full IPCC reports.

    A $23/tonne price from the Greens is already a compromise – Garnaut’s analysis sugested a price more like $30/tonne. Less than that will have no effect on even the worst polluters.

  44. I actually think that people are waiting for something to happen – and the Commonwealth Games and the GF have filled most people’s heads for the last month. The Government needs to have its Ministers with a new announcement everyday to the local papers- they could take turns.

    “Today another x kms of fibre optic was laid in x community”. “Water minister met with x community today. Farmer John Smith was impressed by the consultation”. “Health minister has approved another $ to x local community.” “Survey engineers are visiting the proposed Epping line site and have taken the first measurements.”

    This has always been a hard working government and that story needs to be told as a constant narrative especially where it connects to local communities.

  45. Gee Whiz
    [I think there is a growing concern out there in the community that we don’t actually have a government at the moment.]
    I think there is a growing concern way out there in the Liberal Party fringe that we don’t actually have a Coalition government at the moment.

    This concern will only increase over the next three years, especially after the Senate numbers change on 1 July 2011.

  46. [GeeWizz
    Posted Tuesday, October 12, 2010 at 9:37 am | Permalink

    We need real governance and I think this will be Abbott’s key pitch for a new election.]

    Given the next federal election won’t probably be until sept 2013, who is Abbott pitching too ?

    cheers

  47. Socrates, Vik,
    I am concerned with the price, but at least if true, the article shows the Govt is seriously thinking about how to manage the politics of it – comparde to last term where the Govt mismanaged climate change.

  48. Cuppa @ 128

    [Now with his approval dropping sharply, the media attention might be even more unfavourable, sending him deeper into an aggressive, self-destructive spiral. There’s a good chance he will lash out at the media next]

    This is exactly what I would expect to happen next, as Abbott’s fear and anxiety about his ultimately tenuous hold on the Liberal leadership boil to the surface if and when his polling numbers begin to falter.

    Paranoid thinking typically includes persecutory beliefs concerning a perceived threat towards oneself, accompanied by irrational acts and outbusts, as we are now seeing from the Opposition Leader.

    Abbott may soon be in dire need of some anti psychotics to tame his dementia.

  49. interesting contrast.

    Dennis Glover, re Tea Party:

    [Palin and the Tea Party’s potency is their ability to project belief and take people with them. They have the capacity – all too rare today – to interest everyday people in a political program that’s fundamentally based on ideas. Those ideas may be at odds with economic common sense, flaky and at times ugly, but they are put with edge and passion. Therein lies the lesson for progressives in both the US and Australia: the need to fight passion with passion, belief with belief.]

    And Peter brent re Gillard;

    [Either way, it’s clear voters are yet to warm to Labor. Some of this may be due to Julia Gillard’s stubborn refusal to behave like a fully-fledged prime minister. It’s as if the ultimate goal of her life-long ambition to get the job was nothing to do with policies but to “connect” with middle Australia.

    She cut her political teeth under John Howard’s prime ministership and ingested the myth that his political longevity was due to “values”, to his connection with middle Australia. She wants to emulate Howard… But actually voters want their prime minister to be prime minister, not continually show that she is just like them. Who cares if he or she likes football and cricket? It’s about what sort of job voters think they’re doing.]

  50. Tony needs to be very careful that he doesn’t over play this. I hate the sexism undertones of many of the Coalition jibes against Julia but it could go the other way too. Abbott ambushed by a girl!

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