The Australian reports the latest Newspoll shows the parties still araldited together on 50-50, with Labor’s primary vote on 35 per cent (38.0 per cent at the election, 34 per cent in the Newspoll of September 10-12), the Coalition on 42 per cent (43.6 per cent and 41 per cent) and the Greens on 14 per cent (11.8 per cent and 14 per cent). This is despite a sharp deterioration in Tony Abbott’s personal ratings, which have seen a 9 per cent drop in approval (to 39 per cent) and rise in disapproval (47 per cent). By contrast, Julia Gillard is up four points on approval to 48 per cent and down three on disapproval to 33 per cent, and her lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 50-34 to 52-31. Full tables courtesy of GhostWhoVotes.
This thread pushes the Victorian tread bellow the point that can be seen on the main page without scrolling down and thus may lower the number of people looking at it and also possibly those posting there.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/10/08/7147/comment-page-1/#comment-656114
Its an odd poll I think. Tony’s decline has not translated into any TPP shift.
It seems the punters that did not want the ALP still feel that way but are starting to tire of Abbott.
It suggests the ALP response of being uber-reasonable is putting a spotlight on Abbott’s weaknesses but not convincing anyone to change sides.
Fair enough I suppose -they haven’t actually done anything – and probably won’t until the new senate is in place.
Psephos,
[My identity is already well-known, including to Mr Massola, and anyway I’m not a public servant.]
Massola made sure of that! He outed you, Possum & Mumble in a piece before he did Grog.
Probably thought that if there was no flak resulting from that, then he should be able to get away with outing Grog.
Maybe I’m wrong but I don’t seem to have seen many Massola pieces in the OZ since it blew up & the damage control didn’t work as well as expected or hoped.
Stupid gits. How can you defend something as low as that!
does not matter what Abbott approval is or that silly beauty contest PPM is , 2 TPP result of 50/50 is not flash , given Libs 11 bilion black hole found and Undys public vote for Labor
to me , MSN anti Labor narative post election has continued success for Lib Party , as it did in last yr of Labors first term in tarnishing Labor brand itself
Labor runs on bord is needed soon , and then VIP clearly sold to public better than last term
Scorps – I “outed” myself in 2008. Had it on the blog since.
Scorpio, neither Mumble nor Psephos were ever “anonymous”.
Though Psephos may or may not have been “faceless” at various times 😛
[does not matter what Abbott approval is or that silly beauty contest PPM is ]
There would definitely be some people for whom their preferred PM is a big factor in which party they vote for, so it’s not totally a beauty contest.
Also, if more people are satisfied with the PM, then it’s proof that she is doing a good job … and eventually this’ll translate into actual achievements for the government & improvement in party vote.
ossum Comitatus
Posted Tuesday, October 12, 2010 at 12:43 am | Permalink
“Though Psephos may or may not have been “faceless” at various times 😛 ”
well tonite , you’ve outed yourself as a “hippy” possum , no less
[Labor runs on bord is needed soon ]
Not sure they will get anything going soon. It’s going to be an ugly period of spin until the new senate allows things to get moving.
With a compliant MSM, there is not a lot the ALP can do to make headway over that period.
I think i’m starting to understand the current ALP strategy of being ultra calm – there’s no upside in picking fights when your hands are tied.
[Scorpio, neither Mumble nor Psephos were ever “anonymous”. ]
Massola sure made sure there was never a chance of that.
[Scorps – I “outed” myself in 2008. Had it on the blog since.]
Yes Scott, I well remember the very time, but the point I was making was that the general readership of the OZ would not have known the identity of you three and probably couldn’t give a stuff either, but “why” did he make a significantly qualified point about identifying you three?
Was it a dry run? Who knows! The thing “I” do know, is that I will “never” bother to read anything produced by Massola again!
The Nationals got less than 4,000 more preferences from the Libs than the Greens at this years election.
Personally, all other things being equal, I would have thought Labor should have lifted a bit with Julia apparently getting the edge over Tony.
However, that might feed my other working theory which is that the state government effects from NSW and QLD are seriously impacting federal Labor figures, now and (quite probably) at the election. I’d be really interested in seeing some reasonable sample sized state breakdowns. I’m thinking that people polled in NSW and QLD are finding it very hard to put a tick next to Labor at the moment.
Ron went:
[well tonite , you’ve outed yourself as a “hippy” possum , no less]
Actually had dreadlocks about 15 years ago. Never got the whole lentil thing though.
New Election NOW
and you regret you didn’t ?
a possum with whole lentil would be a look
To what end, GeeWizz?
I’ll ask you again Geewiz.
What is your problem with boat people, did one beat you up or something?
You got a problem with hippies Ron?
[RadguyPosted Tuesday, October 12, 2010 at 1:16 am | PermalinkI’ll ask you again Geewiz.
What is your problem with boat people, did one beat you up or something
]
They set up a rival business and did a LOT better than him 🙂
[To what end, GeeWizz?]
We need new stable government as soon as possible, not one 50% supported by the populace.
Government seems pretty stable to me geewiz.
It wouldn’t be hard would it Frank? 🙂
You’re so easy to bait into saying dopey things GW. Given this post is all about a newspoll saying that if an election had been held on the weekend it would have been another dead heat 50% all … having another election now would, by all the evidence, not have changed the situation you complain about one whit.
GeeWizz, if a government is “50% supported by the populace” it follows that it is only 50% opposed, and that this new election of yours would be no more likely to provide “stable government” than the last.
Darren@1137 previous thread
[Why do Liberal South Australia pollies have that accent? (Or “Cultivated Australian English” as Wikipedia calls it)
Please explain with reference to Pyne and Downer.]
St Peters College
[Given this post is all about a newspoll saying that if an election had been held on the weekend it would have been another dead heat 50% all … having another election now would, by all the evidence, not have changed the situation you complain about one whit.]
Given Julia’s improved PPM ratings, plus the improving economy, plus Kevin being on-board as Foreign Minister, I think the ALP might even be able to do a bit better than 72 seats & emerge in a slightly stronger position.
[We need new stable government as soon as possible, not one 50% supported by the populace.]
Blimey, but 50% think it is OK! 😉
GeeWhiz ,
when you lose an election as youse did , I’d like to see a better quality loser whinge than you’ve served up
vik
I’d like to agree with you – I want to think the same things – but there is no evidence to back this up. All the polls are basically 50/50 or 51/49, just as before the election. I don’t think you can say anything except another election right now could well end up down to the wire again, and could fall either way. GW of course isn’t moaning about the fact it was/is close, just that it ended up not being close in his party’s favour.
Reading that piece by Peter Martin, I noticed something that the MSM seems to have totally ignored. I wonder why???
Could be a few interesting DD’ers coming up in QT.
[Horwath is the second group to distance itself from Coalition costings. The National Centre for Economic Modelling said it had never worked for the Coalition, but might have indirectly through the Parliamentary Library, despite claims by Mr Robb that policies had been ”carefully modelled by (the centre)”. ]
http://www.smh.com.au/national/hockey-was-economical-with-the-truth-lib-poll-costings-never-audited-20101010-16e31.html
I’m fueling up on pancakes. I am also prone to hypermanic episodes. Post No2 on yesterdays thread is a good example. I also outed myself, although I will not do this again anytime soon. I am sure plenty here looked me up. It was a huge mark of respect to those who did – I didn’t get hassled, despite being scorned by a few in the threads.
I’ll be back shortly…
Blimey! Either Matthew Franklin has had some sort of 24 hour conversion to writing the truth for a change or this piece was written solely by Mark Dodd and just included Franklin’s name so that he gets included in the payroll list.
[TONY Abbott is rethinking the Coalition’s call for more Australian troops to be sent to Afghanistan amid a plunge in his public support after his refusal to visit the war zone with Julia Gillard.
A Newspoll conducted exclusively for The Australian at the weekend has revealed a drop of nine percentage points in approval for the Opposition Leader since the last poll a month ago.
The poll – which also showed support for parties almost identical to the result at the August 21 election, with the major parties locked on two-party-preferred support of 50 per cent – was conducted in the days after Mr Abbott was criticised for rejecting an invitation by the Prime Minister for him to join her on a visit to troops earlier this month.
Mr Abbott instead visited a Conservative Party conference in Britain where, confronted about turning down the invitation and anxious not to break a security blackout over his plans for a visit a week later, he attributed his rejection of Ms Gillard’s invitation to fear of jet lag. ]
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/afghan-flak-hits-tony-abbott-in-the-polls/story-e6frf7l6-1225937406182
The rest of that is not a bad read also.
I wonder what’s up with News Ltd. 😉
Night all!
Running off to hide is no way to address the libs popularity shortfall geewizz.
What a wus!
Ahh, the echoes of Truthy. GW, I think the poll indicates it’s pretty much status quo, with the possibility that people are getting a little annoyed at ‘we will oppose everything’ approach of TA and his rag tag team.
[writing the truth for a change]
Seem to have missed you scorpio, but I read that piece differently. More like a ‘wake up to yourself TA – we’re gunning for you, but you’re making it hard for us’.
At his worst Rudd was not as unpopular in general as Dillard is.
[At his worst Rudd was not as unpopular in general as Dillard is.]
I think the Coalition’s negative approach, which ramped up with TA getting the lead gig, has a lot to do with this. But you are right, Rudd was more popular than the NSW Right (why do we use a capital for that?) gave him credit for. Kevie did need some straightening up, but it was the ALP machine that let him down, and they are only now starting to show a bit of nouse (albiet, it’s still pretty limited).
[At his worst Rudd was not as unpopular in general as Dillard is.]
How do you work that out?
latest anti NBN story from the OO:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/customers-may-be-forced-on-to-nbn-to-keep-phones/story-fn59niix-1225937394605
Good point William.
Rider to#37 – if that’s what the poll figures generally show.
Note to self – go back and check the numbers.
Thanks Frank.
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The Australian’s censorship policy to make readers think what they want. Wusses.
[In my suburb, we recently had the gas line changed to high pressure, and the water pipes were replaced. I didn’t hear anyone complaining.
If the service cost will be the same without internet, why the fuss? It will be more reliable than copper.
To me, these gripes identify saboteurs of our national interest.]
Here is my input. There is no reason to censor this. I look forward to their email to say that my input has been published.
Ahh Redneck WA:
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/8114719/wa-support-for-burqa-ban-poll/
But check this out:
[But a spokesman for Federal Attorney-General Robert McClelland said the Government was committed to protecting the rights of all people to express and practise their religion without intimidation or harassment, so long as they complied with Australian law.
A spokeswoman for Tony Abbott said the Opposition Leader wished the burqa was not widely worn.
But the coalition did not have a policy to ban it and had always respected people’s rights in this area.]
Kidswhizz won’t like Tony’s Response 🙂
Does the latest polling suggest that a lot of people are still uncomfortable with the whole minority govt thing. Maybe one of two things will have to happen before labor starts hoovering up more votes on the back of the Preferred PM gap:
1. The govt proves to the punters that the minority govt will work; or
2 There is another election.
[Scorps – I “outed” myself in 2008.]
STOP THE POSSUM
….. that shit on my veranda every night
Oh dear, the Slynews Hack was trying his best to ‘justify” Abbott crashed in his approval rating. Everything under the sun except Abbott’s own stupidity.
[At his worst Rudd was not as unpopular in general as Dillard is.]
are you sure? At his worst, Rudd’s approval rating was around -20. Gillard’s is +15. Difference of 35.
Indeed ltep,
From the end of April to Julia Gillard’s takeover, Rudd’s “approval rating” as Prime Minister was under 40% according to Newspoll. At the time of the takeover it was 36%.
Gillard’s approval rating as PM was lowest in the poll taken July 23 to 25th, but it has never fallen below that 41%, and has been gradually rising ever since.
Abbott is doing his best to turn it into a one-sided contest. I’m sure if he keeps at it, and the Libs retain him as leader, he can translate those PPM figures into a comfortable 2PP lead for the ALP. But it’ll take time, so you’ll just have to be patient.
I should add to my last post that Rudd’s dissatisfaction rating was 50% or higher from the end of April until his departure, when it had reached 55%. Gillard’s has never approached such a level, peaking at 43% just prior to the election, but sitting below 40% in 5 out of the 8 newspolls reported since Rudd went.
There is simply no question that Gillard has always been more popular than Rudd was during the last few months of his tenure as PM.
Just have a look at Alan Moir’s rendition of Sloppy Joe this morning.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/alan-moir/20090907-fdxk.html