Newspoll: 50-50

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll shows the parties still araldited together on 50-50, with Labor’s primary vote on 35 per cent (38.0 per cent at the election, 34 per cent in the Newspoll of September 10-12), the Coalition on 42 per cent (43.6 per cent and 41 per cent) and the Greens on 14 per cent (11.8 per cent and 14 per cent). This is despite a sharp deterioration in Tony Abbott’s personal ratings, which have seen a 9 per cent drop in approval (to 39 per cent) and rise in disapproval (47 per cent). By contrast, Julia Gillard is up four points on approval to 48 per cent and down three on disapproval to 33 per cent, and her lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 50-34 to 52-31. Full tables courtesy of GhostWhoVotes.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,580 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  1. Morning all.

    Accurate rendition I might add!

    Just heard excerpt of Abbott on ABC Radio. He is a nutjob. He said wtte that Labor set a trap for him regarding Afghanistan!

  2. aquire said

    [comfortable 2PP lead for the ALP. But it’ll take time, so you’ll just have to be patient]

    i am not sure how long its been since the indp, decision.

    but i am told it takes three weeks to think about breaking a habit and another three to actually decide, so may be a lot of people are still thinking about who they voted for. and also i would love to see this poll done ONLY in the the southern states .

    also not every one is like the people here most people are sick and tired of polls and
    the liberals do seem to talk the loudest. Julia is just being sensible not getting involved in any of there arguments soon they will be just talking to themselves.

    and what about the Morgan poll last week, after all they where also spot on at the election.

  3. perhaps the words used were a carefully laid political ambush. He said that the ALP are experts at machavellian bastardry! He is totally unhinged.

  5. Abbott has also again raised questions that somehow our troops are not fully equpped to defend themselves. The only people politicising the troops are the coalition. They are the lowest of lows. In fact Howard, truth be known, Abbott and Co. should be put up for war crimes.

  6. [victoria
    Posted Tuesday, October 12, 2010 at 8:10 am | Permalink
    Morning all.

    Accurate rendition I might add!

    Just heard excerpt of Abbott on ABC Radio. He is a nutjob. He said wtte that Labor set a trap for him regarding Afghanistan!]

    In my living memory i do not ever remember an alternative PM with a gun in his hand, that photo really worried me.

    Then i heard second hand that one of the tv stations are going on about the sports minister did not know what numbers make up a cricket team.

    i know what worries me more. Soon they will be thinking the health minister should know how to perform surgery.

  7. sorry the word Horward should have been before Abbott. Otherwise sentence does not make sense! Sorry, this mob make me so angry I can’t type straight!!

  8. [victoria
    Posted Tuesday, October 12, 2010 at 8:14 am | Permalink
    my say

    the Newspoll which is the latest one now. Was the accurate one.]

    last friday some one posted here that morgan as exactly the same at that point

    50/50

  9. my say

    the media and the coalition are doing their very best to destabilise this govt. It is a disgrace. Considering our economy is moving along nicely. They are happy to trash our country for power!

  11. It is a rather nice follow up to his one from before the election ” rel=”nofollow”>here

    I reckon he needs a slight variant to account for Hockey’s pseudo-dummy spitting bluster look too, though.

  12. GeeWhiz @ 20

    [We need new stable government as soon as possible, not one 50% supported by the populace.]

    We have a new stable Government that reflects the will of the people as expressed at the Election on 21st August, so why on earth would we need another election?

    50% support in terms of the two party preferred vote is meaningless as far as who forms Government in the House of Representatives anyway, and there are plenty of examples of Government’s winning Federal Elections with less than 50% of the TPP vote, so why imply a linkage that does not exist between ‘stability’ and the 50% TPP support figure?

    Get over whatever ails you, and come to terms with Abbott’s loss and subsequent relegation to the Opposition benches for 3 more years.

  18. [We need new stable government as soon as possible, not one 50% supported by the populace.]

    We had one supported by substantially less than that after Howard’s win in the 1998 election, whizzer!

  22. [George

    Did you hear Abbott’s comments on ABC radio regarding this topic? I am sickened by this man.]

    Yep, I thought, surely this is a repeat from yesterday. But no, the a**hole is still banging on about it. He is truly a pathetic soul. I’ll pray for him with my voodoo dolls tonight 😉

  23. @victoria

    Do you see that they laughingly call that diatribe Grattan dished up this morning – ANALYSIS.

    Flawed analysis at that. She conveniently fails to mention that the journalist who broke the story CONFIRMED that his source was not from the Government.

    A pretty crucial fact for any analysis, I would have thought.

  25. victoria @ 51

    [Just heard excerpt of Abbott on ABC Radio. He is a nutjob. He said wtte that Labor set a trap for him regarding Afghanistan!]

    Paranoid delusion – “Boo hoo! Julia Gillard set me up to open my own big mouth and blurt out the nonsense about ‘jetlag!’ It wasn’t my fault, the Socialists somehow lured me into shooting my mouth off!”

    What utter nonsense – Abbott needs to get a grip, or he’ll be in Alexander Downer credibility territory before he knows it.

  26. Interesting article from Coorey. He outlines what’s involved in getting Politicians into Afghanistan

    [
    THE squabble between Tony Abbott and Julia Gillard over Afghanistan misses a key point. It would have been a lot easier on the military had they travelled to Afghanistan together.

    Organising a milk run so a politician can pow-wow with the troops or shoot guns for the cameras requires an enormous pool of resources and manpower that must be removed from the field of operations for 24 hours.

    When a VIP visits the troops, the pick-up point is Dubai or Abu Dhabi. A C-130 transport plane with air crew, senior officers, PR people, and a protective detail of special forces troopers makes the four-hour flight to the United Arab Emirates to pick up their cargo.

    ]

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/spare-those-organising-security-from-more-work-20101011-16g39.html

  27. [the journalist who broke the story..]

    “the journalist, from her own media company, who broke the story”, in fact.

    Still, she is at least being a little more sceptical about Abbott than she was in the lead up to the election itself.

  28. [Where do I buy my Mr. RAbbott voodoo doll? I know what I want for christmas!]

    It’s easy to make your own. You need: a donkey’s tail, a rat’s head and an empty phone for the body.

  29. So what do Bludgers think, should the PM hit back with “stop being a child, let’s get on with the business of running the country” or just ignore the fool?

  31. victoria @ 55

    [In fact Howard, truth be known, Abbott and Co. should be put up for war crimes.]

    I sometimes daydream about a future time when we’ll see Howard, Downer and all the other Coalition chickenhawks from the 2003 Iraq War disaster paraded ignominously before the International War Crimes Tribunal in The Hague in their orange jumpsuits, legs in irons …. sadly, it ain’t gonna happen, but I can still dream.

  33. [63 victoria
    Posted Tuesday, October 12, 2010 at 8:20 am | Permalink
    Michelle Grattan The Age

    http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/bastardry-to-bitchiness-coalition-ratchets-up-heat-20101011-16g04.html?autostart=1%5D

    well its a slow turn around i once watched the queen Mary turn out of the Harbour here in Hobart, so what do they say it like turning the queen Mary around.

    I watched some of the videos very good, i never new the age had these videos, we should support them every day, i think this is the future this is where we can get our news.
    considering the newsltd has to be paid for soon, i would hope that fairfax dont go that way, becasue a lot of will not pay for news on line just because we havent before.
    Can some one tell me in what setting Julia did had that discussion and who was the lady sitting next to her.

    If ARI is around may be we can have those email addresses again to thank Tim Lester.
    of course he is from the island originally, no wonder he is so down to earth.

    also, the financial reporter cannot think of his name, discussed with Julia going back at abbott, and she said as i thought she would say she is not interested in that.

    I seem to see a little misunderstanding here with the male of the species, she is maintaining her lady like personality, males dont understand this what we do, and if she didnt she would be called a fishwife ( what ever that means ) in her composure not policy she is reminding me of Mrs Thatcher more every day.

    with out the handbag lol

  34. The Big Ship

    I too think constantly about this. Honestly, if justice were ever to be served, it should happen. But you are right. It won’t.

  35. [Can I substitute the rats head for a rats arse?]

    Didn’t think of that Space Kidette – that would certainly complete the voodoo doll of Tone.

  36. Space Kidette

    Did you watch video linked to Michelle Grattan’s piece linked at post 63?

    Video shows Julia being asked about this matter.

  37. [Posted Tuesday, October 12, 2010 at 8:33 am | Permalink
    So what do Bludgers think, should the PM hit back with “stop being a child, let’s get on with the business of running the country” ]

    this just sound like me when i spoke to the son when he was being a silly teenager
    in fact i am afraid he is 30 now and i can still be heard saying this.

  38. Lucky Tone wasn’t embedded with the troops – he would have led them straight into an ambush.

    Is there any chance he got the newspoll (about his slide as Preferred PM) before he went on the offensive?

  39. Here’s a comment on that article in The Age by the poster “Cockatoo”:

    [For goodness sake, this is the game of politics. If Abbott’s finding it too tough then perhaps he should hand over to the real man of iron, Christopher Pyne, oopps, sorry, I meant Julie Bishop.]

  40. [86 victoria
    Posted Tuesday, October 12, 2010 at 8:41 am | Permalink
    Space Kidette

    Did you watch video linked to Michelle Grattan’s piece linked at post 63?

    Video shows Julia being asked about this matter.]

    i did and i think we all should watch this is what i was saying we should thank Fairfax for there interviews, better than anything i have seen on tv why watch the news when its here. goon on you fairfax

  42. Tony is now sounding like that bad loser Michelle Grattan talked about in her article. Poor Tony, the Labor machine is so mean to him

    [
    Opposition leader Tony Abbott says he was the victim of a “carefully laid political ambush” over his visit to Afghanistan.

    Mr Abbott restarted the war of words with the prime minister over Afghanistan today, saying the federal Labor Party was expert at “machiavellian bastardy”.

    “The prime minister was under absolutely no misunderstanding about my plans and intention to visit the troops and that’s why this suggestion that I was not interested was just so wrong,” Mr Abbott told Macquarie Radio.

    Advertisement: Story continues below “It was, I think, a carefully laid political ambush, that’s essentially what it was.”

    “There is no doubt about it, when it comes to machiavellian bastardry, the Labor Party are world champions.

    “I do my best to counter it but I think when it comes to that sort of business it’s very hard to beat the Australian Labor Party, because these guys are experts.”

    Mr Abbott made the comments after the latest Newspoll showed Julia Gillard has increased her lead as preferred prime minister.
    ]

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/abbott-the-victim-of-political-ambush-20101012-16gh1.html

  43. What mileage does Abbott hope to garner, by still continuing with this today? Gillard has already confirmed, and the journo has already confirmed that it did not come from her office. Why is he still carrying on about it? He looks like a paranoid delusional fool

  45. madcyril

    yes, I heard his comments on ABC radio this morning. I am still dumbfounded. Is he suggesting that Julia somehow controlled his mind and mouth to utter those ridiculous words?

  49. ROD – Kristina Kenneally has also been considerably more popular than O’Farrell, but it hasn’t made any difference to her party’s fortunes.

  50. [Why is he still carrying on about it? He looks like a paranoid delusional fool]

    Let’s all get the popcorn out, the pom-poms, crack up the “rara” music and egg him on – go Tone!

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