Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

Crikey reports the latest Essential Research survey has Labor moving to a 51-49 lead after three weeks at level pegging. Labor’s primary vote is up two points to 42 per cent while the Coalition’s is down two to 43 per cent – suggesting the two-party shift to Labor has been dampened by rounding – and the Greens are steady are on 9 per cent, weakness for the Greens being an unusual feature of recent Essential polling. We are also informed the national broadband network was supposed by 56 per cent of respondents and opposed by only 18 per cent; 63 per cent think it important the government move “quickly” on an ETS or carbon tax; and 69 per cent support legalising euthanasia for those with incurable disease and severe pain. Tony Abbott is found to be favoured over Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal leader by 26 per cent to 20 per cent, with support for Turnbull evidently being concentrated among non-Coalition voters.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,743 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. ABC radio’s PM knows a bit more than Abbott.

    “first loss in at least 35 years .. or 70 years according to the opposition “

    Cut them a bit of slack. You know they’re not very good with numbers.

  2. [3270 The Finnigans
    Posted Wednesday, September 29, 2010 at 7:35 pm | Permalink
    BTW has anyone wished Julia a happy birthday today?

    Happy Birthday Miss PM – This Is Your Song

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PRZVuos9_I%5D

    finns please send it to her. You can send it to her lalor office, i have th email of her person secretary there if you would like me to do it from you.

  3. Hi Finny
    For dragons, tubes and bludgers are best separate 😉

    Good day in the HoR today, big news is that Julia did not wear the necklace with the two little pearls at her throat, that she wore the day she declared victory over Abbott, or as it was put, it was okay to take them but did she have to wear them?

  4. [may i ask do you Arthritis]

    my say, seronegative inflammatory arthritis. DMARDS of all kinds did nothing, methotrexate did nothing, biologics out of the question because of B-Cell cancer.

    Doctor’s response, masterfull inaction. 🙂

  5. [Finnigans
    Posted Wednesday, September 29, 2010 at 7:58 pm | Permalink
    My say, please be my gues]

    i will say this is from my friend on pb who is also a dolphin and a brilliant song writer.
    how is your sister.

  6. [my say, seronegative inflammatory arthritis. DMARDS of all kinds did nothing, methotrexate did nothing]

    how humble am i methotrexate works for me.

    you are amazing,

  7. Dee@3312

    So who were the indies who voted with the Rabbott?

    According to  http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/government-loses-first-vote-on-floor-of-the-house-since-1941-according-to-sources/story-fn59niix-1225931763187 

    Rob Oakeshott, Tony Windsor and Tony Crook backed a Coalition amendment to the reformed standing orders, giving the Coalition 73 votes, while Bob Katter, Andrew Wilkie and Adam Bandt backed Labor, giving them 72.

  8. Anony

    I get the politics of budgeting.

    My inlaw is a polio survivor. He has maintainned mobility for his enitre life through special crutches; then when his shoulders blew-out a manual wheelchair. His shoulders are all but gone. An electirc wheelchair is likely to add years to his life that would not require quite significant care (at least his partner resigning from her job).

    The economics (at the individual level is stupidly clear. And given that these things have a life beyond their user it makes even less sense.

  9. [Diog,

    how about this suggestion for lowering health costs.

    1. The Aus govt directly accredits medical universities (for doctors and nurses) in various countries – Colombia, India etc.
    2. The top 10% of graduates get instant permanent residencies
    3. The influx of decent medicos will put downward pressure on wages

    The Aus govt and the consumer wins 🙂 ]

    it sounds like a good idea, but the difference in health provision, and education, is vast between some countries and ours, and less so in others. a top graduate from an indian medical school does not a good australian dr make.

    a better solution would be:

    1) reduce the level of control the ama has over specialist training
    2) allow nursing and other allied health staff to train for their quals, in parallel with formal education of course, similar to how it used to be.
    3) congratulate the private health industry for showing that the hidden hand of the market is so good at providing health care that all goverment subsidies for the industry will be reduced to next to nothing over 5 years.
    4) use the money saved from charging people twice for the same service to pay for more uni places, health infrastructure etc.

    that would be a good start.

  10. [I may never work again.
    Did you work for David Jones?]

    No, but I am the Duchess of Bidlington and I was head coach of the England football team and am on the London Olympic committee and the Member for Upfeldstone and I had a mobile phone with message bank…

  11. Evening all, Sky leads news here in the West at 6pm with JG birthday, then about 30 secs of the cut and thrust in QT, more on JG’s birthday, the kissing from Swanee and Albo then few secs on Wyatts maiden speech, nothing on the unhinged one directly and on to Abletts move….a total of just over 2 mins in total on politics…of course there is Helen Dalley to come on late Pm Agenda…no indication who is on yet with her
    Interestingly nothing about the vote.

  12. Thanks ShiftyPhil
    Was this to give the Rabbott a small win & retain the perception of being independant?
    I suspect so. As Windsor is one smart operator.

  13. [Compare and contrast Julia and Kevin v Tony and Julie. And look at Ken!]

    Tone and JBishop appear to be bored! Jools and Kev seem interested.

    And JBishop doing to Wyatt what she did to Twiggy that day of the Millionaire’s Protest. She must be a very tactile person. 😛

  14. Oakshott and Windsor probably liked the amendment – it makes parliament more ‘accountable’. Crook probably thought, ‘Time to show that I can switch my vote, so, wtf, y not?’
    Katter and Bandt are probably already bored witless with useless palaver and thought that opposing the amendment might save them from having to put up with even more of the Man of Action’s tendentious crap.

  15. [it sounds like a good idea, but the difference in health provision, and education, is vast between some countries and ours, and less so in others. a top graduate from an indian medical school does not a good australian dr make.]

    That sounds to simplistic. I fail to see how an overseas uni could not teach to the standard required in Australia. e.g. I have seen first hand excellent treatment in one particular South American country.

    [a better solution would be:

    1) reduce the level of control the ama has over specialist training]

    Absolutely- I hate all cartels

    [2) allow nursing and other allied health staff to train for their quals, in parallel with formal education of course, similar to how it used to be.]

    Ditto

    [3) congratulate the private health industry for showing that the hidden hand of the market is so good at providing health care that all goverment subsidies for the industry will be reduced to next to nothing over 5 years.]

    I don’t yet get the economics of this yet, but i have an inlking of the politics 😉

    [4) use the money saved from charging people twice for the same service to pay for more uni places, health infrastructure etc.]

    As above

    that would be a good start.

  16. Diog.

    We have found that a sacrificial lime mortar is not only cheap, but pliable under certain circumstances. Particularly when processing ladies of a certain age from the North Shore. This concoction tends to pong a bit when first mixed, but the addition of a good-quality Oil of Rosemary seems to satisfy sensitive snouts.

    A trick: Always have a focaccia baking in the background. And don’t be mean with the anchovies.

    A superior sound system is a must, though. Bang in a bit of Bach, some Norwegian wood instruments, maybe a ballad or two. Like dentists.

    Happy to be of service.

  17. Even when I take my politically biased hat off I cannot fathom what the appeal of the Rabbott is.
    We have spent years & lots of money on campaigns to put a stop to this behaviour in schools. Surely, one would think that parents can see a correlation to the Rabbott’s behaviour & that which goes on in the playgrounds??

  18. [Did you have side affects with methotrexate? It’s meant to be pretty harsh.]

    No, liver function tests were fine. Lots of people take it for yonks. MTX is great but in my case it did not work.

    So my bone Doc reckons why bother, plus I get to drink beer again. 🙂

    This is the tale of modern medicine, everyone expects they can take a pill and everything will be fine.

    I have two major chronic diseases, both cannot be “cured” by a pill. I am happy with this fact. Life is what you make of it.

    I do not expect the Govt to pay tens of thousands of bucks on bleedin’ edge therapies just to extend my life by a couple of years.

  19. [I get the politics of budgeting.

    My inlaw is a polio survivor. He has maintainned mobility for his enitre life through special crutches; then when his shoulders blew-out a manual wheelchair. His shoulders are all but gone. An electirc wheelchair is likely to add years to his life that would not require quite significant care (at least his partner resigning from her job).

    The economics (at the individual level is stupidly clear. And given that these things have a life beyond their user it makes even less sense.]

    b_g, like i said, it makes all the sense in the world that the person should get the aid. you’ll get no argument from me. i’m just trying to explain why it’s such a crappy system, believe me, i work in it and i don’t like it any more than they do.

  20. bg

    [1. The Aus govt directly accredits medical universities (for doctors and nurses) in various countries – Colombia, India etc.
    2. The top 10% of graduates get instant permanent residencies
    3. The influx of decent medicos will put downward pressure on wages

    The Aus govt and the consumer wins 🙂 ]

    That is a definite no go for several reasons.

    1. Studies show that having more doctors increases medical costs.

    2. It is grossly unethical for Australia to rape and pillage the best minds of the developing world so we can keep up our lifestyles.

  21. [The Finnigans
    Posted Wednesday, September 29, 2010 at 8:17 pm | Permalink
    My say, Bradfield is Brendan Nelson’s old seat.]

    now thats meant to be quite posh isnt it

  22. Boerwar:

    I;m saying nuttin!

    Seriously, I think it’s great to have an indigenous person in the House. There are plenty of initiatives he can get involved in, and to that end, I agree with your earlier observation that it would be a positive thing for the government to involve him in some way. He is very well qualified, and has ample policy experience under his belt. It would be a shame for that to be lost to ‘closing the gap’ in the name of partisan politics.

  23. Dio
    When I was kid nurses were sometimes called ‘slushos’. Then they got degrees. Do you have a view about whether over-training and over-accreditation has resulted in an imbalance between what people do and what they are paid to do? [could go either way… nurses are now so well-trained and skilled we should be giving them lots more responsibility; or, they are vastly over-trained for what they actually do and we could save by training them a lot less and paying them a lot less]

  24. [On the surface, Julia and Albo play it as they see it, no machinations.]

    albo learnt something in all those years stacking branches and fixing resolutions in Marrickville townhall

    I’d back him any day against the poodle

  25. That is a definite no go for several reasons.

    [1. Studies show that having more doctors increases medical costs.]

    Are you serious that a great supply of employees to choose from pushes up medical costs?

    [2. It is grossly unethical for Australia to rape and pillage the best minds of the developing world so we can keep up our lifestyles.]

    So you don’t believe in a global market for labor. We do it for engineers, why not more widely for doctors.

    I disagree, vehemetly with the rape and pillage comment. Haven’t you ever heard of remittances. The value of remittances to third world country vastly outweights the value of aid by orders of magnitude. Don’t you want third world countries to get hard cash?

  26. [“Steps are being followed at the moment in relation to one of the officers involved at the time in the Department of Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts, but it’s not appropriate for me to go any further than that,” he said.]

    It had better not be Grog! That’s his department!

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