Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

Crikey reports the latest Essential Research survey has Labor moving to a 51-49 lead after three weeks at level pegging. Labor’s primary vote is up two points to 42 per cent while the Coalition’s is down two to 43 per cent – suggesting the two-party shift to Labor has been dampened by rounding – and the Greens are steady are on 9 per cent, weakness for the Greens being an unusual feature of recent Essential polling. We are also informed the national broadband network was supposed by 56 per cent of respondents and opposed by only 18 per cent; 63 per cent think it important the government move “quickly” on an ETS or carbon tax; and 69 per cent support legalising euthanasia for those with incurable disease and severe pain. Tony Abbott is found to be favoured over Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal leader by 26 per cent to 20 per cent, with support for Turnbull evidently being concentrated among non-Coalition voters.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,743 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. [3334 Dee
    Posted Wednesday, September 29, 2010 at 8:17 pm | Permalink
    Even when I take my politically biased hat off I cannot fathom what the appeal of the Rabbott is.]

    its certainly got me stumped cannot fathom it at all. I have met may be three people, when i have bought him up in conversation that go quite, that usually means
    they vote liberal, but i have herad no one sing his praises personally.

  2. o o 7:51PM

    Government loses first vote on floor of the house since 1962

    It was the first time a government had lost a vote on the floor of the lower house since 1962, the office of the Clerk of the House confirmed, although on three occasions since 1941 – in 1942, 1991 and 1992 – the then government had lost votes when the Speaker backed the opposition with a casting vote.

    Rob Oakeshott, Tony Windsor and Tony Crook backed a Coalition amendment to the reformed standing orders, giving the Coalition 73 votes, while Bob Katter, Andrew Wilkie and Adam Bandt backed Labor, giving them 72.

    Zardos

  3. [3347 The Finnigans
    Posted Wednesday, September 29, 2010 at 8:24 pm | Permalink
    now thats meant to be quite posh isnt it

    May say nah, we live in the poor part of Bradfield]

    should of known your to nice to be posh

  4. [ 3) congratulate the private health industry for showing that the hidden hand of the market is so good at providing health care that all goverment subsidies for the industry will be reduced to next to nothing over 5 years.

    I don’t yet get the economics of this yet, but i have an inlking of the politics 😉 ]

    ah, b_g you may think you have found me out, but you are mistaken!

    the fundamental problem with marketing health is the lack of rationality. effectively, without extremely restrictive market controls like we have, someone selling you healthcare insurance is asking you, or will be asking you, ‘how much will you pay to live?’ at it’s core there is no rational response to a purchasing decision like that.

    i can go on, but i suspect i will bore you and attract young liberals.

  5. Anony, I was not trying to catch you out. I was just pointing out that I have never looked in the economics of private health insurance.

    Please bore me and we don’t have enough young libs here 🙂

  6. anony

    [1) reduce the level of control the ama has over specialist training]

    That would be difficult to do as the AMA has absolutely no control over specialist training. They have no input whatsoever.

    [2) allow nursing and other allied health staff to train for their quals, in parallel with formal education of course, similar to how it used to be.]

    Agree

    [3) congratulate the private health industry for showing that the hidden hand of the market is so good at providing health care that all goverment subsidies for the industry will be reduced to next to nothing over 5 years.]

    Can’t see that making any difference economically and it would be political suicide. Care in private and public costs about the same to the taxpayer.

    [4) use the money saved from charging people twice for the same service to pay for more uni places, health infrastructure etc.]

    I’m not sure who is being charged twice.

  7. Gosh we’re a healthy bunch (me included). Is it a side effect of an interest in politics, or is it just that being home more means one has the time to come & play here?

  8. [That is a definite no go for several reasons.

    1. Studies show that having more doctors increases medical costs.

    2. It is grossly unethical for Australia to rape and pillage the best minds of the developing world so we can keep up our lifestyles.]

    dio is right on point 2.

    point 1 is only accurate in specific circumstances. it makes more sense to decide what you want your doctors to do, and in which settings, before you decide how many you should have.

    point 2 is a very real problem. western countries have drawn away so many health professionals from developing countries that they face very real negative health outcomes.

  9. Sky returns to its true form…’it was a great day for Tony Abbott and the Opposition as they made history by defeating the Govt for the first time in a vote in the House of Reps”
    That has been covered well by wise bludgers previously.

  10. [Please bore me and we don’t have enough young libs here]

    I’ll drag some over from Bolt’s for your amusement if you like or do you prefer the one’s from Piers?

  11. [ 1. Studies show that having more doctors increases medical costs.

    Are you serious that a great supply of employees to choose from pushes up medical costs?]

    Absolutely serious. Why do you think Howard cut back medical student places?

    The number of procedures in any field is almost linearly correlated with the number of doctors, eg hysterectomy, caesarian section etc etc.

    Most patients get better by themselves. If we had lots of GPs, they would all get in sooner and cost money rather than waiting a few days and not bothering or getting better by themselves.

  12. Does anyone want to respond to my points rather than breezing past them with generalisations about raping and pillang medical talent from 3rd world countries?

    [One doctor from a third world country working in AUstralia can support his extended family back at home. Do you think it is fair to deny him the opportunity to do this?]

    [So you don’t believe in a global market for labor. We do it for engineers, why not more widely for doctors.

    I disagree, vehemetly with the rape and pillage comment. Haven’t you ever heard of remittances. The value of remittances to third world country vastly outweights the value of aid by orders of magnitude. Don’t you want third world countries to get hard cash?]

  13. blue_green

    The Oz has gone after me before half a dozen times (Shanas, Pearson, Kerr etc)- but it’s always ended better for one of us than the other.

    Now they just leave me alone.

    It’s also worth a laugh when they try to get all serious on page 3 or page 5 or the opinion section against some dude called “Possum”. It makes them look like raving lunatics to their average reader.

  14. [Absolutely serious. Why do you think Howard cut back medical student places?]

    SO Abbott should have worn the ‘ripped billions from the health system’ as a badge of honor for sound policy making!

  15. [Can’t see that making any difference economically and it would be political suicide. Care in private and public costs about the same to the taxpayer.]

    dio, how can that be the case when private hospitals regularly make use of public hospital facilities? if i am taxed to pay for public health care, why should my taxes go to subsidise a private healthcare system with higher operating costs (not just executive salaries) a system that i largely have no input into, as opposed to the one i voted for?

    if i then buy private health insurance, have a stroke, go to a private hospital, see a specialist, take a turn for the worse, get admitted to a public hospital and then see the same specialist there, how am i not paying for the same thing twice?

  16. GG

    I was just quoting an earlier post!

    bg

    [its the colleges not the AMA that controls specialist training isn’t it?]

    Yes, the AMA has no role. The state government, the colleges and the public hospitals control the number of specialist trainee numbers.

  17. b-g

    Why stop at doctors?

    All the best engineers. All the best everything. Raise them. Train them. When they are work-ready, export them. When they are all used up, send them back.

  18. Blue-Green ok so do a trade 1 third world Dr here (& remittances) and 1 Aussie doctor to work in the 3rd wold doctor’s home country for the duration – now that would be real aid

  19. Possum

    Ta. I figured you were up to the challenge. I hope it all goes well for you.

    What I really value from your stuff is not so much the short polling analysis as the policy/economic stuff and the long term demographic/electoral trends.

    I hope you still get to do some of that for us all.

  20. [Yes, the AMA has no role. The state government, the colleges and the public hospitals control the number of specialist trainee numbers.]

    dio, agreed, i was wrong about that one. i mixed the two up.

  21. [if i then buy private health insurance, have a stroke, go to a private hospital, see a specialist, take a turn for the worse, get admitted to a public hospital and then see the same specialist there, how am i not paying for the same thing twice?]
    In my area the public hospital emergency beds are usually full of private health patients because it is not viable for the two private hospitals to operate an emergency dept. over the weekends. They get priority over the beds & on the Monday they are shipped out by ambulance to the private hospital of their choice.
    The private hospitals also pay lower wages to their nurses than the public system.
    Go figure!

  22. [It is grossly unethical for Australia to rape and pillage the best minds of the developing world so we can keep up our lifestyles.]

    I agree with Dio yet again.

  23. [The Oz has gone after me before half a dozen times (Shanas, Pearson, Kerr etc)- but it’s always ended better for one of us than the other.

    Now they just leave me alone. ]

    Good to know. And best wishes for your new job.

    blue-green:

    I submitted my ABC application online with no problems. So they’ve now got 3 of us knocking at their door! 😆

  24. anony

    The operating costs of private and public hospitals are almost the same. There was a big review recently which I’ve got but fallen asleep reading on several occasions.

    [if i then buy private health insurance, have a stroke, go to a private hospital, see a specialist, take a turn for the worse, get admitted to a public hospital and then see the same specialist there, how am i not paying for the same thing twice?]

    That almost never happens. I can’t recall sending a patient from private to public once in seven years.

  25. [Blue-Green ok so do a trade 1 third world Dr here (& remittances) and 1 Aussie doctor to work in the 3rd wold doctor’s home country for the duration – now that would be real aid]

    dr bogan, that was a joke, right? as much as i would enjoy the schadenfruede of a teacher style regional medicine programme that would randomly send doctors to nouakchott, i can’t imagine it would be a sensible use of resources…

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