Morgan: 54.5-45.5 to Labor

Roy Morgan has published a poll encompassing its face-to-face surveys from the past two weekends, hence not accounting for reaction to Labor’s formation of a minority government. It shows Labor opening a 54.5-45.5 lead on two-party preferred, compared with 52.5-47.5 in the last published poll of this kind conducted on the weekend before the election. On the primary vote, Labor is up half a point to 40.5 per cent, the Coalition down 3.5 per cent to 39.5 per cent and the Greens up 1.5 per cent to 15 per cent. The poll has a sample of 1632 and a margin of error of 2.5 per cent – beyond that, the recent election result provides yet more evidence that Morgan’s face-to-face polling has a substantial house bias to Labor.

UPDATE: Further from Gary Morgan:

Analysis of ‘past vote’ — how respondents claimed they voted at the recent Federal election shows, ALP (42.5%, 4.5% higher than actual ALP vote recorded at the 2010 Federal election) cf. L-NP (39%, 4.5% lower than the L-NP vote recorded at the 2010 Federal election). “The difference between the reported ‘past vote’ and the actual election result can be due to either — a Labor biased sample, or by an unwillingness of the part of respondents to admit to voting L-NP. This latter problem has been noted in previous polls over many years. Regardless of the reason for the difference, if the Morgan Poll is weighted correctly for ‘past vote,’ the estimate would be 50:50, exactly the same as the special SMS Morgan Poll conducted on Wednesday/Thursday this week.”

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,197 comments on “Morgan: 54.5-45.5 to Labor”

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  1. PEDRO
    Posted Monday, September 13, 2010 at 12:58 am | Permalink

    “Ron – Ifind this a very disturbing issue, because on the one hand I have great sympathy with those fleeing barbarism in places like Afghanistan and the coalitiond dog whisling on the issue discusts me.

    But it’s a VOTE winner for them so they are not going to let up anytime soon and anything short of a ‘Naru’ type solution means a drag on the Labor vote, how bigger drag depends on how many boats,…”

    Pedro
    Labor did address issue and DID undo all of Howards unhumane treatment It did not walk away and still hav not (refer details in my #1966) …..not that you’d get that impression from radical left bloggers here nor from MSN/Abbott

    C I is proper set up , its under UNHCR , boat people is proper processed for health , security and complianse to convention , 4% get sent hokme , 86% pass all 3 tests

    what Abbott/MSN did is zap into fact boats is still coming , well yes , but hey did NOT claim any got to our mainland cause none EVER did They got processed in CI as abov

    so last piece of zig saw to neuter Abbot scares is to get boats from travelling on seas hitting out search/rescure area so they dont drown on route Hense E Timor type off -shore soluton It is OUR humane reponsible to solve , and Julia said as much , and voters been so told by her , cann’t be scared of voters on it and Julia was not

    what you seeing Pedro is MSN/Abbott distorion of what i said abov is Labor past actions & future plans , that also get misrepresnt here by j/v types

  2. Yeh I know Ron it is very hard to have a rational discussion about this issue or the ets (which I think is a bigger drag on the labor vote than asylum seekers) on this blog.
    From the little I know about it East Timor seems about as “liberal’ approach as Labor can really afford, what a lot of our fellow bludgers do not appreciate is that we both want to win elections and sometimes politics is about what you can and can’t get away with.
    Enjoy your posts mate always intersting keep em coming.

  6. Ah, the CRACK ………. Boy, has she got a crack:

    [PM’s stepdaughter poses in bra – The daughter of Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s partner has posed in a bikini for a men’s magazine.

    New York-based punk hair stylist Staci Child gives the middle finger in one shot as she tugs at a bra embossed with an Australian flag.

    The 31-year old daughter of Tim Mathieson said her father had seen the Zoo Weekly shots, taken in Sydney, which expose her myriad tattoos.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/pms-stepdaughter-poses-in-bra-20100913-1577x.html

  10. Senorita, “PM’s stepdaughter poses in bra” – this is big news as far as SMH is concerned. they call it the Naked Half Truth.

  13. tokenyank why let the facts spoil a beatup, anything that can smear Julia or Labor in particular will do, the war continues be alert AND alarmed

  14. Someone emailed SkyNews this morning refering to Mesma’s “To the Manor Born” attitude and how she would strut the international stage as FA Minister.

  15. Fran and Michelle telling us how WE will interpret things…again. Tell us what you think, NOT what we might think.
    Conroy very solid this morning…he’s one filter short of a strong minister.

  16. This letter in the SMH is spot:

    [ What Abbott said

    Peter Hartcher should be applauded for noting that the Coalition’s claims that a Gillard minority government is ”illegitimate” are both ”constitutionally wrong and legally baseless”.

    Nevertheless, an unnamed senior Liberal is quoted as saying: ”The attack on legitimacy didn’t come from Tony.” This is incorrect. Mr Abbott’s election night speech itself included the following statement: ”What is clear from tonight is that the Labor Party has definitely lost its majority and what that means is that the government has lost its legitimacy.”

    Even the Liberal Party’s official website, with its transcription of Mr Abbott’s speech that night, makes this plain. ]

  18. ThrTruthHurts
    [NEW Immigration Minister Chris Bowen has warned he won’t stop the flow of refugee boats coming to Australia.

    A day after being handed one of the toughest portfolios in the Government, Mr Bowen told the Herald Sun: “I’m not going to raise any sort of expectations that boats are easy to stop.”

    Failed his portfolio on Day 1.

    Quite an achievement, is this a new record?]
    The truth hurts, doesn’t it.

  19. Ross Gittins has a direct swip at the odd Alan Mitchell article in the AFR last Friday:
    [THE dismay with which economic rationalists have greeted the ascension of Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s ”weak and hopefully short-lived government” is overdone. What we’re getting is different from what we expected, but I’m not convinced it’ll be any worse…

    Let’s get real. Whether the rationalists like it or not, the era of widespread reform is long gone. The notion that, had Abbott won, we might be back to the glory days is delusional. Abbott, a man who’s hitherto shown no great interest in economics, fought an almost completely negative campaign and resorted to blatant populism…

    But here’s what the rationalists have missed: Gillard’s need to win the support of the independents may increase the likelihood of a few reforms going through.]
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/will-to-negotiate-could-be-the-making-of-gillard-20100912-156xz.html

  20. Had to chuckle at this headline in The Australian

    ‘Greg will keep the Greens in check’

    [
    Coalmining is the lifeblood of the region, which takes in the NSW Hunter Valley, so Mr Combet’s new portfolio may seem like an odd appointment, given the make-up of his Charlton constituents. But Mr Heaton takes a different view. He is encouraged by Mr Combet’s elevation to the critical role in applying climate change policy to the national economy and to coalmining in particular.

    He said Mr Combet, a former coalmining engineer with a record of looking after workers’ interests, would keep the more radical views of the Greens in check as he negotiates his way through a new climate change regime.
    ]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/greg-will-keep-the-greens-in-check/story-fn59niix-1225919900355

    Alas, no venting about the Greens from The Australian Editorial today 😀

  21. [Senorita, “PM’s stepdaughter poses in bra” – this is big news as far as SMH is concerned. they call it the Naked Half Truth.]

    Finns, If she’s prancing around in her undies, it’s gotta be StepdaughterGait.

  22. A moderately interesting article on pokies. The part that caught my eye was this bit: there has been a expert process reviewing this industry (notwithstanding the LNP’ Senator Joyce’s penchant for using it as lavatory paper); it is not simply a knee-jerk reaction to some independents.
    [But the prospect itself should not have come as a great shock. The Productivity Commission recommended the pre-commitment system after finding that about 41 per cent of the $11.9 billion Australians spend on poker machines each year came from problem gamblers and it seriously questioned the community benefits that clubs claim to offer. The commission also dismissed concerns about job losses.]
    No doubt the Liberal’s “ferocious opposition” will be based on an appropriate policy analysis
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/number-is-up-at-the-pokie-palaces-20100912-156xt.html

  24. The media is mistaken in assuming that Simon Crean is the Minister for ‘keeping the independents happy’.

    My reading of it is that he is more the Minister for “wining back regional seats i.e. QLD”.

    He gave a very intelligent AM interview where he said he wanted to ensure that everything the govt done is regionally tailored to give a better outcome. He seems like he actually wants some influence over all Departments.

    If he could pull it off it would be excellent. Even when Rudd was riding high in the polls, the centralist tendencies of the Federal Environment Department had already wasted the time and greatly annoyed pterry much every person and organisation working in the field (either volunteering or professionally).

    The “Canberra knows best” attitude infiltrated down to the tiniest detail of policies and grants. If the ALP govt p_ssed off a latte sipping small-l lib greenie like me then then I can imagine how people in central QLD responded.

    —stops to sip latte—

  25. Having said that about Crean, what a stupid decision to leave out Universities and Research (at least in name) from someones Ministry.

    So we have instead:

    Skillz Rule

    Schoolz Rule

    Yippee

  26. Who’s the Minister for ABC Reform? Again this morning I heard opinion as news and the world-view of the Opposition.

    A News Radio story about ceiling insulation inevitably preceded by “the Government’s bungled”, was followed by: “Even before it’s been sworn in, the Federal Opposition has found fault with the new cabinet…”

    Never did an organization so need a complete overhaul to ensure adherence to its Charter – or to a new one.

  27. [A Good Lurk
    Posted Monday, September 13, 2010 at 8:30 am | Permalink
    Who’s the Minister for ABC Reform? Again this morning I heard opinion as news and the world-view of the Opposition.

    A News Radio story about ceiling insulation inevitably preceded by “the Government’s bungled”, was followed by: “Even before it’s been sworn in, the Federal Opposition has found fault with the new cabinet…”

    Never did an organization so need a complete overhaul to ensure adherence to its Charter – or to a new one.]

    I suspect you need a competitor tv network to raise the issue. Maybe Mel and Kochie can blow the lid on it. Or the 7PM report

  28. Conroy was good on RN this morning.

    I’m enjoying seeing the ministers starting to smack down the media. Gillard’s comments about Sky yesterday were gold, but I think the best comment I heard may have been Q and A last week where someone (can’t recall whom) noted that while the Oz has been appalling, worse has been the ABC cutting and pasting the Oz for its news.

  29. [I’m enjoying seeing the ministers starting to smack down the media. Gillard’s comments about Sky yesterday were gold, but I think the best comment I heard may have been Q and A last week where someone (can’t recall whom) noted that while the Oz has been appalling, worse has been the ABC cutting and pasting the Oz for its news.]
    Burgey
    George Mega on Lateline.

  30. BK

    Mega also said this (one of THE best quotes of the year):

    [And obviously they didn’t pick this result between them because they aimed for a disengaged centre that just doesn’t exist anymore.

    There simply aren’t enough people in this – whether it’s a redneck or an outer suburban mortgage belt or whatever it is that they were looking for at the last election, that voter doesn’t exist in large enough numbers to be able to carry one or other over the line. ]

    In other words, you can’t win an election on bogans alone.

  32. I actually heard on Radio during newsbreak, that an insulation company is being investigated as a result of their shoddy work causing four house fires. No mention of the Govt. Did not hear any more than that.

  35. So Hockey has changed his tune on the costings *difference of opinion*. Now he is doing his Sgt Schulz impersonation.

    Infighting in the libs off to a good start, Hockey – robb ??

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/hockey-in-the-dark-on-costings/story-fn59niix-1225919871022

    Hockey ‘in the dark on costings’

    JOE Hockey has revealed to colleagues he didn’t see disputed Coalition campaign costings until the last minute during the election campaign.

    As well as not seeing the costings, prepared by Andrew Robb, he has also conceded to colleagues that policies were being released during the campaign without him being aware of the “full box and dice”.

    Coalition insiders say there were two sides to the debate, with Hockey critics arguing he “went missing” during the process and Robb critics arguing it was his job in the Melbourne headquarters to sort out costings.

    But as Tony Abbott prepares to announce his own frontbench reshuffle this week, Mr Hockey has publicly vowed to continue working with Mr Robb, despite widespread speculation that his colleague’s aborted tilt for the deputy leadership last week was aimed at taking his job as Treasury spokesman.

    The Coalition’s costings flared as an issue during and after the campaign with the Liberals refusing to submit their policies to Treasury, arguing it could not be trusted following campaign leaks. Instead, the Coalition commissioned a Perth accountancy firm to independently verify its policy costings.

    The independents later demanded and won the right to Treasury analysis of the policies as part of the discovery process of deciding which party would form a minority government, uncovering what they argued was a “black hole” of up to $11 billion.

    The Australian understands that Mr Hockey has confirmed to frontbench colleagues that he was only presented with the final draft of costings, released on the Thursday before the election, shortly before a press conference, describing the timing as “uncomfortably close”.

    But he has also argued this was Mr Robb’s job rather than his own because he was on the road during the election campaign.

    He stood by the overall numbers in the costings and claimed Treasury’s criticism represented a “difference of opinion”.

    Mr Hockey has said he was responsible for the overall debt-and-deficit strategy but that the individual numbers were a matter for Mr Robb.

    Mr Hockey declined to comment specifically on these claims when contacted yesterday by The Australian, but said he shared responsibility. “I accept my fair share of responsibility for all of our policies,” he said.

    “The process is part of the cut and thrust of election campaigns but our numbers are absolutely right.”

    Mr Hockey criticised Julia Gillard’s suggestion yesterday that the media had failed to prosecute the Coalition over the failure to submit costings to Treasury.

    “She is just playing a political game. We stand by our costings. We stand by our determination to pay off debt and deficit.

    “It’s a bit rich someone who oversaw the Building the Education Revolution to give us a sanctimonious lectures on responsible budgeting.

    “Julia Gillard has been elected PM but it gives her no right to give us a sermon on fiscal responsibility.”

  37. For all the Michelle Grattan fans out there, I thought you’d like this description of Rudd losing the Prime Ministership

    [
    Bill Shorten, who was a coup leader and is a big winner, becoming Assistant Treasurer and Minister for Finance Services and Superannuation, needs to prove he is as good as the hype that has surrounded much of his career. Various other coup-makers who have been promoted have to demonstrate they can do more than put together a putsch.
    ]

    Was it a beer hall putsch, or a Chinese restaurant putsch 😀

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-election/from-the-boss-down-new-ministry-has-much-to-prove-20100912-1570i.html

  40. Oakeshott character assassination continues afresh.

    [It must seem so to Oakeshott, who has discovered that the media world beyond the adoring Port Macquarie News is a very different place, a place where Oakeshott has become Potshott.

    He has spent nearly 20 years working towards this moment, his time in the national sun. But with the glow comes the heat.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/far-from-an-outsider-or-innocent-20100912-156uu.html

  41. Dave 2025

    I understand that Hockey had his staff numbers reduced and shifted to Abbott’s office after the leadership spill. He hasn’t had the staff numbers to run a shadow treasury.

    Its all part of the sh-t sandwich that many chose to devour when Tony took the reins.

    The only one who opted out was Helen Coonan. It will be interesting to see if she picks up portfolio.

  42. blue-green

    it would be nice if the heat were turned on to the coalition for a change. I doubt things are hunky dory over their in Lib Land. The Nats want a bigger share of the pie and Hockey and Robb are not best buddies. Throw Malcolm in the mix and you have a nice bit of instability.

  44. [THE nation’s new Climate Change Minister, Greg Combet, has vowed to bring “common sense” to the climate change debate. ]

    Its funny how “common sense” has become a euphemism for “not what the scientists say is needed”.

    Am I right to be cynical that a heavy hitting unionist is put in the climate change role to be protectionist and not to actually reduce emissions?

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/coal-industry-is-safe-says-greg-combet/story-fn59niix-1225919936683

  45. Victoria

    The coalition is still on cloud nine really. A year ago about 20 MPs thought they might lose their seats. Its only really the ones on the moderate fringe who are feeling put out (Hockey etc).

    The divisions will take time to show themselves. The ALP just need to govern quietly for a while.

  46. @ Victoria

    The LNP are only 1 negative headline away from a decent internal stoush I believe. If the ALP can keep it’s stuff together until christmas the media will have to look elsehwhere for copy to fill their rags.

  47. Blue_Green, I thought that the Heavy hitting unionists were tied up in Court today.

    Ark Tribe in court 9am (9:30am EST). News and announcements as they come to hand. Signt the ‘Don’t Jail Ark’ petition: http://bit.ly/aklPZ7 25 minutes ago via web

  50. [Steve

    What is that all about?]

    Blue_Green Liberal Party IR laws following the Cole Inquiry still possibly leading to people being jailed.

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