Morgan: 54.5-45.5 to Labor

Roy Morgan has published a poll encompassing its face-to-face surveys from the past two weekends, hence not accounting for reaction to Labor’s formation of a minority government. It shows Labor opening a 54.5-45.5 lead on two-party preferred, compared with 52.5-47.5 in the last published poll of this kind conducted on the weekend before the election. On the primary vote, Labor is up half a point to 40.5 per cent, the Coalition down 3.5 per cent to 39.5 per cent and the Greens up 1.5 per cent to 15 per cent. The poll has a sample of 1632 and a margin of error of 2.5 per cent – beyond that, the recent election result provides yet more evidence that Morgan’s face-to-face polling has a substantial house bias to Labor.

UPDATE: Further from Gary Morgan:

Analysis of ‘past vote’ — how respondents claimed they voted at the recent Federal election shows, ALP (42.5%, 4.5% higher than actual ALP vote recorded at the 2010 Federal election) cf. L-NP (39%, 4.5% lower than the L-NP vote recorded at the 2010 Federal election). “The difference between the reported ‘past vote’ and the actual election result can be due to either — a Labor biased sample, or by an unwillingness of the part of respondents to admit to voting L-NP. This latter problem has been noted in previous polls over many years. Regardless of the reason for the difference, if the Morgan Poll is weighted correctly for ‘past vote,’ the estimate would be 50:50, exactly the same as the special SMS Morgan Poll conducted on Wednesday/Thursday this week.”

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,197 comments on “Morgan: 54.5-45.5 to Labor”

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  2. Scary? You ain’t seen scary until the establishment starts jailing unionists. I think it was Clarrie O’Shea they tried it on last time and that went well didn’t it.

  3. [He won’t stop the boats, tommorow, next week, next month or next year, he’s just admitted that.]

    Could someone remind me who was Prime Minister when the last unauthorised boat bearing asylum seekers reached the Australian mainland?

  4. Laura Tingle’s take on the new ministry in the AFR:
    [Designing a smart and effective ministry, at a pragmatic level, entails bringing together a group of people whose jobs reflect the government’s priorities and worklad, rewarding good performers, removing the lesser lights and reflecting the internal balances of power within the government.

    So it is a stunning achievement by Prime Minister Julia Gillard to have done none of those things in the ministry she arranged on the weekend…

    All this is not to say there are not some interesting or smart appointments in the new front bench.

    Having solved the question of what to do with Rudd and Stephen Smith, Gillard has put the government’s best (all ex-ACTU) negotiators in to look after the most testing issues here government will face.]

  7. So Rabbottis expected to name his Shadowy Ministry tomorrow, meaning there is no reason why he can’t bring out his coalition agreement today.

  9. [Rod

    John Howard: PM

    Unauthorised boat: Exide Challenger

    Unauthorised arrival: Tony Bullimore

    Cost to Australia: $6 million]

    LOL.

    I seem to remember that Johnny Howard might have been the lad in power when boats were last pulling up in places like Cairns, the Kimberleys and the WA west coast, too. Can’t remember any at all during the Rudd / Gillard period.

    Funny how this seems to have been lost sight of in the hullaboo about “invasions”. I guess the person drawing all those red arrows on the Lib advertisements before the election must have not noticed where they really arrived!

  10. [http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/gillard-crafts-a-suitably-credible-cabinet/story-fn59niix-1225919886274]

    So strange to me that suddenly Shanahan sounds sensible and Tingle scathing.

  11. Neither Grattan nor Fran Kelly think Gillard’s criticism of the media failure to unearth Costingsgate is fair. Journos don’t have access to Treasury modelling says Grattan. You don’t it, you just needed to keep relentless pressure on Tone on costings, instead of simpering at him and allowing him to repeat ad nauseum Boats!, Waste!, Debt!.

  12. [When did you hear Greg Hunt suggesting police investigation not warranted?]

    Why would Greg Hunt want a police investigation? It will take away his right to exist because the police will find that the installer ignored the OH&S rules plus the extra safety regulations put in place by Peter Garrett.

    The real culprits will be revealed and Greg Hunt’s attack on the Govt. will be shown for what it is. Of course, the police could also investigate the deaths that occurred while Howard was in power. That could be very revealing – no safety regulations at all then.

  13. I expect to see Cory Bernardi in the shadow cabinet. Warren Ensch will also come back in. I think there may be some moderate blood letting.

    Joe to be demoted to something like health. Malcolm Turnbull- god knows. Robb to Shadow Treasurer. Abetz to be promoted (despite screwing over the Tas Lib vote).

    Hunt to keep CC and Environment. Maybe even Matthias Cormann promoted. Sharman Stone will be demoted. Simon Birmingham and Jamie Briggs will be the only sensible one promoted to the outer Ministries. They will put someone more strident than McFarlane in the Resources portfolio (maybe Abetz).

    I fully expect Tony to push the party further to the right. And then he can use the phrase ‘unity or death’ to quell the moderate rebels.

  14. [And then he can use the phrase ‘unity or death’ to quell the moderate rebels.]

    With the dirty mood the Liberals are in at present they would vote for death if given that choice.

  15. Tingle’s article is very good. She draws attention to the questoinable decision to include Don Farrell and the fact that she’s given two ministry spots previously held by the left faction to the right faction.

    The fact that Gillard “forgot” to include a minister for the status of women and the surprisingly small number of women on the front bench also speaks volumes.

  16. Steve

    The moderates need to develop a firmer idealogy to unify around. Until then they will be bashed from pillar to post by the conservatives.

    There is no mood for dissent within the Libs ATM. Nats revolt will come later.

  18. [It will take away his right to exist because the police will find that the installer ignored the OH&S rules plus the extra safety regulations put in place by Peter Garrett.]

    Worth remembering possum comitatus’s piece on the insulation issue at http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2010/02/24/did-the-insulation-program-actually-reduce-fire-risk/comment-page-1/ on the probability of insulation related roof fires before and after the program was set up.

  21. [Neither Grattan nor Fran Kelly think Gillard’s criticism of the media failure to unearth Costingsgate is fair.]

    confessions – I listened to Grattan and thought she had finally lost it. Her comment about the Govt. questioning the costings was “a bit of hyperbole”. If that is what she thinks then it’s time to hang up her pencil. She obviously didn’t read Laura Tingle’s article about the liars and clunkheads nor Peter Martin’s dissection of the costings.

    Absolutely loved Crean telling Curtis to “get on with it” and Conroy taking no nonsense from Fran Kelly who couldn’t hold her sarcasm back in the end when Conroy said the Telstra shareholders will like the NBN proposal. She said, sarcastically, ‘let’s hope the shareholders will like it or you’ll be in trouble’.

    I want this minority Govt. to succeed even more than I did the 07 one.

  23. Confessions

    I reckon they will stay put.

    There are now noisier and more ambitious conservatives than those two. I can’t wait to see Dennis Jensen miss out and complain again though.

  24. I haven’t been reading this thread muhc over the weekend, but this is one obvious criticism of the Gillard Cabinet that will at least need explanation: there is no education Minister?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/unis-hit-gillard-cabinet-changes-20100912-15703.html

    As well as funding increases, our university sector badly needs reform, to cut bloated bureaucracies, and get a higher % of funds spent on research and teaching. Large armies of administrators will not voluntarily cut themxelves, so this portfolio needs a minister who will actually do something.

  26. Steve

    I imagine that Banyards power is slightly greater now with more QLD nat mps. I still expect his role (regardless of his formal role) will be “keep regional qlders hating the ALP’

  27. [ Am I right to be cynical that a heavy hitting unionist is put in the climate change role to be protectionist and not to actually reduce emissions ]

    Well you are being a tad cynical I’ll give you that much. I often wonder what some people think should happen to the Coal industry? And in what time frame?

  28. blue-green

    That is why I hope Crean will be able to effectively negotiate the regional development portfolio. This will be the key to Labor’s success

  29. Soc

    Snap (from earlier)

    [blue_green
    Posted Monday, September 13, 2010 at 8:29 am | Permalink
    Having said that about Crean, what a stupid decision to leave out Universities and Research (at least in name) from someones Ministry.

    So we have instead:

    Skillz Rule

    Schoolz Rule

    Yippee]

  30. BH:

    Yes, the ‘hyperbole’ comment was pretty incredible. They all sooked when the PM and Rudd met in private during the campaign, yet on an important public interest issue like whether the alternate govt can fund its campaign promises, they run dead. Grattan’s attitude says it all about the incompetence of our media, and why we get idiotic pieces about ear lobes and handbags.

  31. Geoffrey Barker writes a good piece in today’s AFR on Coalition claims of Labor ‘illegitimacy’.

    [If the opposition believes the government is not legitimate, it can hardly maintain credibly (or logically) that it respects and accepts rules which produced that government. The opposition is not stupid; it is hypocritical and opportunistic.]

    [Julia Gillard has achieved legitimacy by signing up Rob Oakeshott, Tony Windsor, Andre Wilkie and Adam Bandt. In Max Weber’s phrase, she achieved legal-rational authority. It would be dangerous and destabilising for the Coalition to seek to undermine it frivolously.]

    He then throws in some unrelated, but amusing asides:

    [Abbott would be better advised to focus on renewing his own party by developing coherent policies and finding museum space for sacred relics like Bronwyn Bishop, Philip Ruddock and Kevin Andrews.]

  34. confessions @2083

    Let me see, now.
    Reintroduce fault-based divorce, jail suicides, perhaps even consider stoning adulterers. Bring back the death penalty.
    Funnily enough, when Tone gets that “mad” look in his eyes, I can imagine all of these.

  35. blue_green, I think Abbott is too smart a politician to drop all the moderates. He’ll just move them into ‘uninmportant’ portfolios. He already started this off by putting Payne into the silly COAG portfolio.

  37. [If the opposition believes the government is not legitimate, it can hardly maintain credibly (or logically) that it respects and accepts rules which produced that government. The opposition is not stupid; it is hypocritical and opportunistic.]

    Did anyone else see Howard, in his running gear, talking about Govt. changing on the floor of Parliament and not needing an new election. He was leering and saying ‘there’s a precedent for it’. I thought yep, you cunning old devil, you’ll be telling Abbott exactly how to go about using that precedent.

  38. BH

    Yes, I saw it, but I’m afraid I was overcome with such a rush of revulsion at his leering expression that I missed the detail (and it really was ‘leering, wasn’t it).

  40. lizzie: EEK!

    Seriously though, how much further to the right can Abbott feasibly go without losing mainstream appeal, and on what issues?

  41. Confessions
    [Neither Grattan nor Fran Kelly think Gillard’s criticism of the media failure to unearth Costingsgate is fair.]
    Grattan and Fran Kelly should turn in their memberships of the AJU and retire if they couldn’t work out that Abbott’s costings were false. I posted several examples of it here myself over the campaign, but more to the point, several recognised economists expressed concerns. Did they even read them?

    Here is Peter Martin’s comment back on 19 August, before the election. He writes in The Age!
    http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2010/08/costings-is-that-all-there-is.html

  42. [Did anyone else see Howard, in his running gear, talking about Govt. changing on the floor of Parliament and not needing an new election. He was leering and saying ‘there’s a precedent for it’.]

    Somehow, in the event that such a thing transpired, I suspect Abbott, given the absence of a World War quite apart from other things, would have rather greater difficulties than Curtin in maintaining the necessary support of the house for more than about five minutes!

  43. [Oakeshott has never been an outsider, or a political innocent. He grew up on Sydney’s north shore, where his father was a prominent doctor, and he attended Barker College. While still a student he went to work for the federal Liberal MP Philip Ruddock, who told me last week: ”Oakeshott did work experience with me in my electorate office. It was unpaid work. He was a student. It was well before he went to work for Mark Vaile.”]

    The poor kid having to work with Ruddoch! Oh hang on the work was unpaid too.

  44. Did anyone else notice the touching affection between Ruddock and New Boy Roy? Every time he appeared in the camera, Ruddock was hugging his new chum.
    This was an interesting contrast with Chrissie Pyne, who is possibly so sensitive about his Adelaide Chrissie image, that he metaphorically leapt a mile from the “group hug”.

  45. [Yes, I saw it, but I’m afraid I was overcome with such a rush of revulsion at his leering expression that I missed the detail (and it really was ‘leering, wasn’t it).]

    lizzie – yep and also conniving. I could see his mind working it all out but he’s reckoned without the Indies and the Greens. I think they really are determined to make it work and if Labor can keep together then it should work quite well.

    I still think it could be quite exciting.

    [Suddenly Costa is a credible source?]
    Costa, the ugly face of the NSW right – absolutely not credible. What is it about these old Labor pollies that they can’t keep their mouths closed.

  46. Socrates:

    Peter Martin and Laura Tingle were really the only ones who tried to blowtorch the coalition on their costings. Grattan was a member of the travelling press pack present when Tingle tried to ask questions of Tone, including at his NPC speech. The exchange this morning was incredible to say the least.

  47. Confessions @ 296:

    [ Peter Martin and Laura Tingle were really the only ones who tried to blowtorch the coalition on their costings.
    ]

    -Mega George also had a blog titled WTTE: Sorry, Tony Abbott is not fit to govern; which made that call based on the Opposition’s costings errors.

  48. Samantha Maiden has decided to let Hockey walk away with his no care no responsibility for the numbers mantra again.

    [Mr Hockey has said he was responsible for the overall debt-and-deficit strategy but that the individual numbers were a matter for Mr Robb.

    Mr Hockey declined to comment specifically on these claims when contacted yesterday by The Australian, but said he shared responsibility. “I accept my fair share of responsibility for all of our policies,” he said.

    “The process is part of the cut and thrust of election campaigns but our numbers are absolutely right.”

    Mr Hockey criticised Julia Gillard’s suggestion yesterday that the media had failed to prosecute the Coalition over the failure to submit costings to Treasury.

    “She is just playing a political game. We stand by our costings. We stand by our determination to pay off debt and deficit.

    “It’s a bit rich someone who oversaw the Building the Education Revolution to give us a sanctimonious lectures on responsible budgeting.

    “Julia Gillard has been elected PM but it gives her no right to give us a sermon on fiscal responsibility.”]\

  49. Phil Coorey with another interesting piece

    [
    The soft carpet throughout the ministerial wing in Parliament House has its benefits, especially if you are a Labor minister walking behind two Liberal frontbenchers who do not realise you are there as they discuss the various shortcomings of their colleagues.

    On Wednesday, the Liberal Party was abuzz as Andrew Robb sounded out the numbers for a tilt at the deputy leadership. If successful, Robb could then choose his own portfolio, which would involve knocking off Joe Hockey for the shadow treasury. Robb’s push had the support of the two shadow ministers walking along the corridor outside Julia Gillard’s office, reported the minister. ”Don’t get me wrong, I’m a friend of Joe’s but we’ve got to think what’s best for Joe and the party,” one said to the other.

    As events transpired, Robb’s push was aborted when Tony Abbott and other heavy hitters stepped in and stressed the need for stability.

    …..

    The decision to abort the Robb challenge means Abbott will leave Hockey in treasury, Robb in finance and Julie Bishop in foreign affairs.

    Malcolm Turnbull will pretend to be happy with whatever he is given. The tip is either communications or defence
    ]

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/labor-20-a-lumbering-beast-that-might-just-avoid-extinction-20100912-156uv.html?autostart=1

  50. [Costa, the ugly face of the NSW right – absolutely not credible. What is it about these old Labor pollies that they can’t keep their mouths closed.]
    If Iemma was still Premier and Costa was still Treasurer, NSW Labor would have a chance of winning the next state election.

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