Minority report

With the final result still uncertain but increasingly looking like Liberal/National 73, Labor 72, independents four and Greens one, it’s time for a new thread.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,146 comments on “Minority report”

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  8. [Wilkie will last only one term, I’m sure the people of Denison will be over him in 3 years.]

    With a primary vote of 21% (and in third place), he is as much an accidental MP as anything else. A lot of things have had to fall his way for him to win.

    Not that I mind of course …

  9. [I nominate Mr Christopher Pyne, Member for Sturt. ]

    The Speaker also has to command the respect of the House, which Jenkins mostly does. It’s a pity Boss Hogg can’t be imported from the Senate. He’s the best presiding officer I’ve seen in a long time – calm, courteous in a very formal way, but firm and authoritative. He only has to raise his voice slightly to produce silence. Admittedly the Senate is easier to run than the Green Zoo.

  14. [Admittedly the Senate is easier to run than the Green Zoo.]

    Not sure about this – the President didn’t have the numbers in the last parliament and so can’t ever throw someone out

  16. You are all dreaming. Jenkins loses the job as Speaker. That’s the sacrifice he makes for the cause.

    Labor has to nominate Oakeshott.

    The coalition will not nominate a Speaker. They don’t need the salary.

  21. Oakeshott would be mad to be Speaker. He’s the obvious intellectual and policy leader of the indy group, if he’s Speaker he becomes a dignified cypher. Plus it’s a full-time job and the indys will have lots of policy work to do, which he will need to do a lot of.

  25. [leave itchy powder strategically placed in the speaker’s chair?]

    Nah, just constantly interjecting with the most pedantic nonsense possible.

  26. Public Notice to Poll Bludgers

    You are hereby advised that you entered a parallel universe in which you
    are treated to an election that never ends. Every day, indefinitely, off into
    the blue yonder, you can refresh your browsers here at PB to learn of
    infinitessimally small changes in vote counts; myriad speculation on how
    the endless permutations and combinations of the 150 seats of the House of Representives might finish up; endless conjecture on how the Constitution
    might be interpreted should a fascinating range of scenarios play out; and
    interminable analyses of the psychological make-ups of independent
    Members of Parliament who may, under countless scenarios, take an entire
    array of decisions that might somehow bear upon the eventual composition
    of a government that will, in fact, never come into being.

    This is your endles reality. Enjoy.

  27. Labor needs to offer Turnbull the treasurer’s and deputy PM job, maybe with a promise to let him have one year as PM in the middle of the three year term to push the republican and ETS agendas. He gets his name in the history books as PM, he gets to push his agendas. I’m joking of course. Labor needs to let abbott and the independents cause another poll so that they get blamed for an unpopular new election – labour needs to be urging very strongly for them to see sense, forms stable government, save the nation millions of dollars, etc, and also call abbott on his dud costings, put forward reasonable electoral reforms that will give more voice to independents and regional areas, and promise a shit load of $ to queensland seats. they also need to say “we have heard you loud and clear and will improve our performance” a lot – a new ministerial line up would be useful here – with Combet, Plibersek and other good and popular ministers promoted and allowed to take on libs.

  32. [ Oakeshott would be mad to be Speaker. He’s the obvious intellectual and policy leader of the indy group, if he’s Speaker he becomes a dignified cypher. Plus it’s a full-time job and the indys will have lots of policy work to do, which he will need to do a lot of.
    ]

    Balderdash. I imagine the NSW right wing nutters are stitching up Oakeshott for the Speakers job right now (btw where are Bitar & Arbib tonight?). Psephos sudden disappearance of course was just coincidental.

  33. Hi

    “Katter wants ban on Nationals veto” on cm Brisbane. Sorry I don’t know how to link this, but does anybody think he trying the break up the Nats and Libs or am i reading this wrong.

  37. [What happens if nobody is willing to accept nomination for the speakership?]

    They’ll make them accept it!

    You know that thing where they drag the new speaker to the chair? That’s no ceremony! They are putting put in that chair against their will! 😉

  41. #4084
    [ What happens if nobody is willing to accept nomination for the speakership?
    ]

    Oakeshott will accept nomination. He is talking about the “supremacy” of parliament and he wants to reform parliamentary procedures.
    If no on accepts Speakership – the house continues to sit and can’t move to the next item of business.
    Thus Oakeshott will accept nomination to enable the work of the house to proceed.

  43. Katter must be a PBer. In Gusface’s linked article he used the word ‘abrogate’- or maybe he picked it up from Oakshott himself. And he used it correctly. These indies are smart – they know more about the language than the new right in Labor, as Psephos has demonstrated. 😆

    Speaking of the Nationals, Katter said:
    “They cost us 8000 jobs in this electorate alone. I pointed out to him that if the Liberals intend to abrogate responsibility (to the Nationals) I will be pointing out I want an assurance the final decision would lie with him.”

  44. So Katter is like someone who hears a big word and then tries to use it as often as he can, so he looks smart… 😆

  47. [ Katter must be a PBer.]

    Masquerades under the name wal kolla. Not always here cos his internet line keeps dropping out. Thats why he wants the NBN.

  48. [So Katter is like someone who hears a big word and then tries to use it as often as he can, so he looks smart… ]

    That is a perfectly cromulent post.

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