Analysis and discussion of elections and opinion polls in Australia
Minority report
With the final result still uncertain but increasingly looking like Liberal/National 73, Labor 72, independents four and Greens one, it’s time for a new thread.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
View all posts by William Bowe
Katter said:- They cost us 8000 jobs in this electorate alone.
Thankfully the repeal of the sodomy laws caused at least 102 people to move into the electorate. If Katter really wants more people in his electorate, maybe he could start promoting it as a “homosexuals haven”.
I think we’ll end up with the NBN now.
*abdicates PB position temporarily, without abrogating responsibility for tomorrow*
If St Bob goes to the dark side – LOOK out – I will risk banishment from Pollbludger and really go to town.
[GetUp!’s national director, Simon Sheikh, said his group was not politically aligned but it had raised more than $1 million from six unions during the election campaign.
It would welcome as good for the democratic process any reforms to political donations that would stymie the ability of third parties to raise large sums of money from other organisations like unions and businesses. Mr Sheikh said donations by individuals should not banned.
GetUp! is holding a meeting of constitutional and political experts in Sydney today to work on recommendations for reform of political donations that it can present to Mr Oakeshott, Mr Katter and Mr Windsor before the next round of negotiations with the two main parties.
One of the experts, Graham Orr, from the University of Queensland, said banning or limiting donations to third parties could be unconstitutional. A better way to reduce their influence on politics could be limiting their expenditure on activities like advertising during and before an election campaign.]
I dont think any of the independents would want the Speaker role, because they loose their vote and voting influence. It will be one from the major parties. That’s why you need 76 to govern. If you have 76, the others have 74. Put one of you own in the speaker’s chair, and you still win 75-74. But it only takes 1 to change his/her mind and change the vote. That’s why Windsor (IIRC) insists that 76 is not a big enough majority. If you have 77, the others have 73, so a vote will be 76-73, and you need 2 to change their mind to change an outcome. Getting 77 means you need all 4 indeps on board (includes Wilkies, but assumes Brandt and Crook stay left/right). Easiest, “at least” mathematically, would be a coalition of ALP and Nationals (78 or 79 seats) … I’d love to be a fly on the wall when those two negotiate with each other … alas, it ain’t gonna happen, this is not continental Europe.
[ A better way to reduce their influence on politics could be limiting their expenditure on activities like advertising during and before an election campaign.
]
As a preliminary point that may be the only “constitutional” way of doing it.
#4108
[ I dont think any of the independents would want the Speaker role, because they loose their vote and voting influence.]
Richard Torbay (independent) is the NSW Speaker. He says he achieves far more for his electorate, because he is closer to the Premier and Ministers, than he would if a mere cross-bencher.
Torbay doesn’t have the opportunity to hold the balance of power in a minority government though
One thing and another.
Haven’t even watched Lateline.
Was watching Ben Cousins, though.
His dad, his family, Richmond should be the Indeps.
More heart, soul, understanding than is usually displayed on a comm channel.
Lacked balance, of course.
Well and truly made up for by the talkback crap I heard briefly today.
Shanahan reminds me of one of those country newspaper editors: writing the copy, setting the type and even cranking the printing machine.
The latest of his brilliant observations comes in a jointly written article with Patricia Karvelas (just to make sure she gets the “line” exactly right, I guess):
Steve Fielding may block Labor rule
Oh really? Well, I bet none of us had thought that before political savant Shanahan worked it out.
Steve Fielding is threatening to put a Labor government in gridlock next year and Nick Xenophon is vowing to force a new national crackdown on poker machines.
Victorian Senator Fielding, who can hold the Senate to ransom until July 1 next year by voting with the Coalition, has declared the “voters are not happy with Labor”, and he has to decide whether to block everything it does.
Fielding threatening to block everything with Coalition in Senate if Labor minority installed …
[Fielding threatening to block everything with Coalition in Senate if Labor minority installed … ]
That spiteful little S-O-B! He’s probably just sealed Gillard’s fate. If only this election had been a DD…
[ Steve Fielding is threatening to put a Labor government in gridlock next year ]
As if that didn’t happen to some extent in the last 3 year. BTW, ditto ALP + Greens 2011-2013 to a coalition minority.
F***ing Fielding!
“The Australian people have decided they don’t want Labor returned for a further three years.” That quote is completely inaccurate, but whatever, Newscorp is gonna print what they want.
Fielding’s a deadshit and a worthless cretin. Next July cant come soon enough.
If I were the 3 indies, Id immediately inquire as to whether this means the coalition is going to block everything with Fielding. If so – id tell them to go jump.
Peope who couldnt give a crap about the country should not be pandered to. Call his bluff.
Its his public funeral.
Fielding is a muppet, bills can be defered cant they ?
So that exposes the coalitinos strategy I guess.
Born to rule little shits – and their happy clappy gimp Fielding.
I say F*CK EM!
So that exposes the coalitions strategy I guess.
Born to rule little shits – and their creepy little happy clappy gimp, Fielding.
Could these guys be impressing the public and the indies LESS?
Treasury’s secret assessment of the budget outlook under the Coaltion likely to surprise
A bit late! There is nothing in this that could not have been written before the election.
Are we being softened up for a change of tactics on submission of costings? Maybe Robb and Morris have decided it is going to be too hard for them if abbott hangs tough in a period when there is no other hard news.
Why cant the Tories understand they dont have a mandate?
The public has spoken: there WILL be a minority govt, and NO, there’s no compelling reason why it should be LNP led.
You Tories LOST the popular vote. Where do you get off making threats with menaces?
Typical Tories – the constitution is only there to serve them.
How about this then: Greens promise to block Tones after July. for two years.
Obviously that strategy would be ok with you guys then? Tones? Fielding?
Scumbags.
And more crap from the OO:
aus_politics
Windsor to face backlash: Greg Smith has acknowledged that the independent would hit strong local opposition if he… http://bit.ly/ao6QcF 3 minutes ago via twitterfeed
Fundamentalist First decides to screw this country one last time. Fortunately, the independents are smarter than that and will hopefully realise that the current Senate only exists until July next year.
Either way, the far right are determined to steal power no matter what it takes. Scumbags are this close to forming militias I think.
Australia doesn’t want you pathetic goons. If they did, you would’ve romped it in. I don’t give a shit about the swing, if Australia wanted you dirtbags in power, you would’ve won a majority!
what if all this advoating for another poll backfires on the tories ?
Can’t we setup another mock climate summit to keep Fielding busy for six months? We could even double it with a sex out of marriage summit? A noah’s ark summit? In fact can we BUILD him an ark?
Coupla hoses – pretend it’s raining for 40 days, lick of paint lick of paint – problem solved. 😉
[what if all this advoating for another poll backfires on the tories ?]
In the event of another poll (as unlikely as it is) I would hope that the protest voters, who voted Coalition to “send a message” say “holy crap! We almost got Abbott!” and come back but I fear the opposite will happen and they’ll opt instead to “finish Labor off” – especially with the Murdoch media batting for it and the squillions of dollars the Coalition seem to be able to magically conjure up at their disposal!
[ what if all this advoating for another poll backfires on the tories ? ]
What would another poll bring, anyway? The swing against Labor would probably not continue, it may rather reverse (a little) due to less protest votes. Sure some electorates can be better campaigned, but these exist on both sides. The overall circumstances and policies will not have changed since 21 Aug … hang on, I haven’t heard of any boats arriving recently …
Maybe, some decent visual and audio effects at Fielding’s house “Stephen, this is God. Don’t be a right wing tool or I will banish you to be Satan’s gimp for all eternity!”
I’d be pretty disappointed if Wal Kolla is Bob Katter.
I would hope that he would have better things to do than bludge here.
Bob aint about to allay with climate skeptics, and that is only the start of the compromises that would be made for this tact.
There have been boats, I believe.
Despite the so scary prospect of Abbott. Stop Right There!
Fails to deter.
Will these people never learn? Running from death? Get a life.
Murdoch clearly is otherwise preoccupied.
There have been boats, I believe.
Despite the so scary prospect of Abbott.
Stop! I order you. Right There!
Will these people never learn?
Running from death?
Get a life.
Murdoch clearly is otherwise preoccupied.
So much for self editing.
[ Plenty of donkeys voted, but at least one rhino has been missing since last weekend’s election. The full-sized beast was last spotted next to Narellan Road on Friday night in the seat of Macarthur. It was wearing a ”Honk Your Horn Against Labor’s Taxes” sign, helpfully provided by the Liberal Party’s Russell Matheson. It was on a trailer, around the corner from the Labor Party candidate Nick Bleasdale’s Narellan headquarters. It was not, it should be pointed out, made of real rhino. Owner Garry O’Neill, who lent a menagerie of Royal Easter Show amusement ride props to the campaign at a friend’s request, said the rhino had been taken, along with a Pinocchio figure and the trailer. ”I did ring the Labor guy and said there’s a rumour you may have these things for a joke,” he said. ”He cracked up on me … and told me I cost them the election. He went off his tree.” Though the theft cost the ”not usually political” O’Neill about $10,000, he was otherwise pleased his crocodile, elephant and monkey mates helped Matheson to victory. O’Neill said Bleasdale had told him that Labor had nothing to do with the disappearance, but he would keep an eye out. ”Then he asked if I could lend them to them for their election next time.”] Rhino misses victory party
In multi-party parliaments that require a coalition to form government, political analysts usually
sugest that the smaller number of parties are more manageable and therefore stable even if they are not ideologically the closest.
On this basis Australia could either have a Liberal-Labor grand coalition or a Labor-National Party coalition.
I suspect that Labor and some of the National Party are in discussions out of the public eye….
Not advocating it, but its not unrealistic.
A Labor-green-nationals coalition could command a majority in both houses for the full term, off memory of numbers….
5% donkey was it? This is the mandate the indies can claim are the voters who need to be re-engaged. These guys weren’t on most ballots. None of the above? They qualify! There’s also the 100,000 or so difference in the TPP. Pretty significant. About an electorate or 1%.
I think the outcome will be death by a thousand cuts for the libs. 4 indies block in for ALP. ALP appoints speaker. The green (13% – 1 seat) and national (4%-7-8 seats) proportional representation will be a clear reason for supporting this side for government.
Indies get NBN, a strong online presence over the next three years as well as sweet pork, ensuring re-election.
ALP change tactics and gain seats in 2013 with a more responsible MSM.
For the next 12 months, we all can just postulate, put a hold on divisive policy reform for the time and refine them for when the senate is ready to work for the country!
2 years or more of full mining tax is a fit punishment for such a small bunch of tools wielding such powerful weapons on our country, particularly the myopic.
Perspective – I bet the miners had more anti-mining tax ads than the Greens had campaign ads.
And how many miner supporters does anyone know who are short of a quid?
76/73, worst case 75/74
The less legislation that is passed up to the cranky old senate, the better.
[ A Labor-green-nationals coalition could command a majority in both houses ]
Yes, and if this was continental Europe, it would well be on the table of possibilities. In Australia in 2010 however I doubt it. The mindset here is left versus right, and not “which policies can I get through”. The need to educate the voters alone will make it difficult to implement.
Now that the DLP, having once been considered crucified, dead and buried, have been resurrected in Victoria, it seems they are hopping on the bandwagon of anti-ABCism. According to Peter Kavanagh (DLP Member for Western Victoria)…
the DLP did not get even a mention in either of Melbourne’s major newspapers, commercial TV stations or the ABC……
……..It is an appalling deficiency in our democratic process that what voters know depends so much on the attitudes of a handful of media people. In the case of TV, the situation is especially unfair – those with exclusive custodianship of airwaves that belong to all of us are surely given that extraordinary privilege on the condition that such enormous power is wielded responsibly and justly. In reality, the privilege is seriously abused……..
Those who are denied access to the ABC, such as DLP supporters, should no longer be forced to pay through our taxes for broadcasting the propaganda of our opponents.
[That is a perfectly cromulent post.]
Are you disembiggening me?
Frank
The truce?
Katter said:-
They cost us 8000 jobs in this electorate alone.
Thankfully the repeal of the sodomy laws caused at least 102 people to move into the electorate. If Katter really wants more people in his electorate, maybe he could start promoting it as a “homosexuals haven”.
I think we’ll end up with the NBN now.
*abdicates PB position temporarily, without abrogating responsibility for tomorrow*
Gusface@4102
If St Bob goes to the dark side – LOOK out – I will risk banishment from Pollbludger and really go to town.
[GetUp!’s national director, Simon Sheikh, said his group was not politically aligned but it had raised more than $1 million from six unions during the election campaign.
It would welcome as good for the democratic process any reforms to political donations that would stymie the ability of third parties to raise large sums of money from other organisations like unions and businesses. Mr Sheikh said donations by individuals should not banned.
GetUp! is holding a meeting of constitutional and political experts in Sydney today to work on recommendations for reform of political donations that it can present to Mr Oakeshott, Mr Katter and Mr Windsor before the next round of negotiations with the two main parties.
One of the experts, Graham Orr, from the University of Queensland, said banning or limiting donations to third parties could be unconstitutional. A better way to reduce their influence on politics could be limiting their expenditure on activities like advertising during and before an election campaign.]
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/getup-open-to-limits-on-donations-20100826-13uay.html
the pressure just ramped up
😉
Bob wouldnt want to risk his vote would he ?
I dont think any of the independents would want the Speaker role, because they loose their vote and voting influence. It will be one from the major parties. That’s why you need 76 to govern. If you have 76, the others have 74. Put one of you own in the speaker’s chair, and you still win 75-74. But it only takes 1 to change his/her mind and change the vote. That’s why Windsor (IIRC) insists that 76 is not a big enough majority. If you have 77, the others have 73, so a vote will be 76-73, and you need 2 to change their mind to change an outcome. Getting 77 means you need all 4 indeps on board (includes Wilkies, but assumes Brandt and Crook stay left/right). Easiest, “at least” mathematically, would be a coalition of ALP and Nationals (78 or 79 seats) … I’d love to be a fly on the wall when those two negotiate with each other … alas, it ain’t gonna happen, this is not continental Europe.
[ A better way to reduce their influence on politics could be limiting their expenditure on activities like advertising during and before an election campaign.
]
As a preliminary point that may be the only “constitutional” way of doing it.
St Bob on Lateline:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I9k16yg6b_g
#4108
[ I dont think any of the independents would want the Speaker role, because they loose their vote and voting influence.]
Richard Torbay (independent) is the NSW Speaker. He says he achieves far more for his electorate, because he is closer to the Premier and Ministers, than he would if a mere cross-bencher.
Torbay doesn’t have the opportunity to hold the balance of power in a minority government though
One thing and another.
Haven’t even watched Lateline.
Was watching Ben Cousins, though.
His dad, his family, Richmond should be the Indeps.
More heart, soul, understanding than is usually displayed on a comm channel.
Lacked balance, of course.
Well and truly made up for by the talkback crap I heard briefly today.
Shanahan reminds me of one of those country newspaper editors: writing the copy, setting the type and even cranking the printing machine.
The latest of his brilliant observations comes in a jointly written article with Patricia Karvelas (just to make sure she gets the “line” exactly right, I guess):
Oh really? Well, I bet none of us had thought that before political savant Shanahan worked it out.
Sheesh…
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/steve-fielding-may-block-labor-rule/story-fn59niix-1225910648935
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/steve-fielding-may-block-labor-rule/story-fn59niix-1225910648935
Steve Fielding is threatening to put a Labor government in gridlock next year and Nick Xenophon is vowing to force a new national crackdown on poker machines.
Victorian Senator Fielding, who can hold the Senate to ransom until July 1 next year by voting with the Coalition, has declared the “voters are not happy with Labor”, and he has to decide whether to block everything it does.
Fielding threatening to block everything with Coalition in Senate if Labor minority installed …
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/steve-fielding-may-block-labor-rule/story-fn59niix-1225910648935
Heh snap
[Getting 77 means you need all 4 indeps on board (includes Wilkies, but assumes Brandt and Crook stay left/right). ]
Thats what I was opining earlier: unless Wilkie jumps counter-intuitively to the right, only Gillard can offer 77.
I think for that reason alone she is favoured to win out here. Abbott can only muster 76.
victorian newspoll http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/smooth-sailing-for-john-brumby-after-cutting-free-from-rudd-anchor/story-fn59niix-1225910648597
[Fielding threatening to block everything with Coalition in Senate if Labor minority installed … ]
That spiteful little S-O-B! He’s probably just sealed Gillard’s fate. If only this election had been a DD…
[ Steve Fielding is threatening to put a Labor government in gridlock next year ]
As if that didn’t happen to some extent in the last 3 year. BTW, ditto ALP + Greens 2011-2013 to a coalition minority.
F***ing Fielding!
“The Australian people have decided they don’t want Labor returned for a further three years.” That quote is completely inaccurate, but whatever, Newscorp is gonna print what they want.
Fielding’s a deadshit and a worthless cretin. Next July cant come soon enough.
If I were the 3 indies, Id immediately inquire as to whether this means the coalition is going to block everything with Fielding. If so – id tell them to go jump.
Peope who couldnt give a crap about the country should not be pandered to. Call his bluff.
Its his public funeral.
Fielding is a muppet, bills can be defered cant they ?
So that exposes the coalitinos strategy I guess.
Born to rule little shits – and their happy clappy gimp Fielding.
I say F*CK EM!
So that exposes the coalitions strategy I guess.
Born to rule little shits – and their creepy little happy clappy gimp, Fielding.
Could these guys be impressing the public and the indies LESS?
Treasury’s secret assessment of the budget outlook under the Coaltion likely to surprise
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/treasurys-secret-assessment-of-the-budget-outlook-under-the-coaltion-likely-to-surprise/story-fn59niix-1225910636140
A bit late! There is nothing in this that could not have been written before the election.
Are we being softened up for a change of tactics on submission of costings? Maybe Robb and Morris have decided it is going to be too hard for them if abbott hangs tough in a period when there is no other hard news.
Why cant the Tories understand they dont have a mandate?
The public has spoken: there WILL be a minority govt, and NO, there’s no compelling reason why it should be LNP led.
You Tories LOST the popular vote. Where do you get off making threats with menaces?
Typical Tories – the constitution is only there to serve them.
How about this then: Greens promise to block Tones after July. for two years.
Obviously that strategy would be ok with you guys then? Tones? Fielding?
Scumbags.
And more crap from the OO:
Fundamentalist First decides to screw this country one last time. Fortunately, the independents are smarter than that and will hopefully realise that the current Senate only exists until July next year.
Either way, the far right are determined to steal power no matter what it takes. Scumbags are this close to forming militias I think.
Australia doesn’t want you pathetic goons. If they did, you would’ve romped it in. I don’t give a shit about the swing, if Australia wanted you dirtbags in power, you would’ve won a majority!
what if all this advoating for another poll backfires on the tories ?
Can’t we setup another mock climate summit to keep Fielding busy for six months? We could even double it with a sex out of marriage summit? A noah’s ark summit? In fact can we BUILD him an ark?
Coupla hoses – pretend it’s raining for 40 days, lick of paint lick of paint – problem solved. 😉
[what if all this advoating for another poll backfires on the tories ?]
In the event of another poll (as unlikely as it is) I would hope that the protest voters, who voted Coalition to “send a message” say “holy crap! We almost got Abbott!” and come back but I fear the opposite will happen and they’ll opt instead to “finish Labor off” – especially with the Murdoch media batting for it and the squillions of dollars the Coalition seem to be able to magically conjure up at their disposal!
[ what if all this advoating for another poll backfires on the tories ? ]
What would another poll bring, anyway? The swing against Labor would probably not continue, it may rather reverse (a little) due to less protest votes. Sure some electorates can be better campaigned, but these exist on both sides. The overall circumstances and policies will not have changed since 21 Aug … hang on, I haven’t heard of any boats arriving recently …
Maybe, some decent visual and audio effects at Fielding’s house “Stephen, this is God. Don’t be a right wing tool or I will banish you to be Satan’s gimp for all eternity!”
I’d be pretty disappointed if Wal Kolla is Bob Katter.
I would hope that he would have better things to do than bludge here.
Bob aint about to allay with climate skeptics, and that is only the start of the compromises that would be made for this tact.
There have been boats, I believe.
Despite the so scary prospect of Abbott. Stop Right There!
Fails to deter.
Will these people never learn? Running from death? Get a life.
Murdoch clearly is otherwise preoccupied.
There have been boats, I believe.
Despite the so scary prospect of Abbott.
Stop! I order you. Right There!
Will these people never learn?
Running from death?
Get a life.
Murdoch clearly is otherwise preoccupied.
So much for self editing.
[ Plenty of donkeys voted, but at least one rhino has been missing since last weekend’s election. The full-sized beast was last spotted next to Narellan Road on Friday night in the seat of Macarthur. It was wearing a ”Honk Your Horn Against Labor’s Taxes” sign, helpfully provided by the Liberal Party’s Russell Matheson. It was on a trailer, around the corner from the Labor Party candidate Nick Bleasdale’s Narellan headquarters. It was not, it should be pointed out, made of real rhino. Owner Garry O’Neill, who lent a menagerie of Royal Easter Show amusement ride props to the campaign at a friend’s request, said the rhino had been taken, along with a Pinocchio figure and the trailer. ”I did ring the Labor guy and said there’s a rumour you may have these things for a joke,” he said. ”He cracked up on me … and told me I cost them the election. He went off his tree.” Though the theft cost the ”not usually political” O’Neill about $10,000, he was otherwise pleased his crocodile, elephant and monkey mates helped Matheson to victory. O’Neill said Bleasdale had told him that Labor had nothing to do with the disappearance, but he would keep an eye out. ”Then he asked if I could lend them to them for their election next time.”]
Rhino misses victory party
In multi-party parliaments that require a coalition to form government, political analysts usually
sugest that the smaller number of parties are more manageable and therefore stable even if they are not ideologically the closest.
On this basis Australia could either have a Liberal-Labor grand coalition or a Labor-National Party coalition.
I suspect that Labor and some of the National Party are in discussions out of the public eye….
Not advocating it, but its not unrealistic.
A Labor-green-nationals coalition could command a majority in both houses for the full term, off memory of numbers….
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/i-may-go-it-alone-ponders-wilkie-20100826-13uaz.html
ALP cant assume wilkie’s support.
5% donkey was it? This is the mandate the indies can claim are the voters who need to be re-engaged. These guys weren’t on most ballots. None of the above? They qualify! There’s also the 100,000 or so difference in the TPP. Pretty significant. About an electorate or 1%.
I think the outcome will be death by a thousand cuts for the libs. 4 indies block in for ALP. ALP appoints speaker. The green (13% – 1 seat) and national (4%-7-8 seats) proportional representation will be a clear reason for supporting this side for government.
Indies get NBN, a strong online presence over the next three years as well as sweet pork, ensuring re-election.
ALP change tactics and gain seats in 2013 with a more responsible MSM.
For the next 12 months, we all can just postulate, put a hold on divisive policy reform for the time and refine them for when the senate is ready to work for the country!
2 years or more of full mining tax is a fit punishment for such a small bunch of tools wielding such powerful weapons on our country, particularly the myopic.
Perspective – I bet the miners had more anti-mining tax ads than the Greens had campaign ads.
And how many miner supporters does anyone know who are short of a quid?
76/73, worst case 75/74
The less legislation that is passed up to the cranky old senate, the better.
[ A Labor-green-nationals coalition could command a majority in both houses ]
Yes, and if this was continental Europe, it would well be on the table of possibilities. In Australia in 2010 however I doubt it. The mindset here is left versus right, and not “which policies can I get through”. The need to educate the voters alone will make it difficult to implement.
Now that the DLP, having once been considered crucified, dead and buried, have been resurrected in Victoria, it seems they are hopping on the bandwagon of anti-ABCism. According to Peter Kavanagh (DLP Member for Western Victoria)…
the DLP did not get even a mention in either of Melbourne’s major newspapers, commercial TV stations or the ABC……
……..It is an appalling deficiency in our democratic process that what voters know depends so much on the attitudes of a handful of media people. In the case of TV, the situation is especially unfair – those with exclusive custodianship of airwaves that belong to all of us are surely given that extraordinary privilege on the condition that such enormous power is wielded responsibly and justly. In reality, the privilege is seriously abused……..
Those who are denied access to the ABC, such as DLP supporters, should no longer be forced to pay through our taxes for broadcasting the propaganda of our opponents.
What a lot of paper bull !
New thread.