Analysis and discussion of elections and opinion polls in Australia
Minority report
With the final result still uncertain but increasingly looking like Liberal/National 73, Labor 72, independents four and Greens one, it’s time for a new thread.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
View all posts by William Bowe
We have a leader and she may yet be PM – what drugs are you people on?
Magic mushrooms it seems.
Wiliam
LOath as I am to argue with the blogger you mean – 72 72 5 1
If ALP can;t count the greenie then fibs can;t count the WA Nat
Sometimes it’s better to get the pain out the way. Bring it on.
[I wouldn’t I want my party to be represented in the Lower House.]
What Frank? You would want to keep your few WA Labor seats even if it cost more seats overall? Says it all.
PS, I’ve thrown you the bone of changing “Coalition” to “Liberal/National”.
This might suggest that an Abbot led minority government
is possible. However it will only be supported in
parliament by a one seat majority (after the speaker
is chosen).
That is just not stable. I don’t see that even getting
off the ground.
I wouldn’t I want my party to be represented in the Lower House.
What Frank? You would want to keep your few WA Labor seats even if it cost more seats overall? Says it all.
No you fool, it’s called having your political views being represented in the lower house.
I will NOT let my state be represented by a bunch of right wing neo crazies just so we can massage the egos of a bunch of vain Quincelanders.
A long liberal rule has punctured by Whitlam which imploded quite spectacularly, handing the conservatives back in to power. It wasn’t until Hawke that a proper long-term labor government was formed.
Perhaps we’ll see the same here? heh….
woof woof
What happened to the 100,000 GetUp provisional votes?
Have they been counted yet?
See you all again in 2013
The Get Uo votes as you call them) will have been counted – new lists were issued so these people could vote as ordinary voters
And the Katter Dirt has begun:
The Herald Sun heraldsun
Katter accused of threat to kill MP: BOB Katter, the maverick Queenslander poised to become an election kingmaker,… http://bit.ly/93MlI3 6 minutes ago via twitterfeed
[That is just not stable. I don’t see that even getting
off the ground.]
Sounds good to me, I love instability in the Tory side.
[What happened to the 100,000 GetUp provisional votes?
Have they been counted yet?]
Yes – they were featured on a supplementary roll and included in the election night count, except in remote locations where the roll could not be physically provided in time.
PS, I’ve thrown you the bone of changing “Coalition” to “Liberal/National”.
Kind, but now the call will be for even more precision:
“Liberals and The Nationals and the Western Australian Nationals Placed Theoretically Together For the Sake of Argument 73; Labor 72”
Katter has been considered batnumb-crazy anyways. So absolutely zero affect at all.
WA did OK in the face of feral rabidness. Leave us alone. What is this nonsense – that we have to sacrifice seats so that QLD lives? Look at it this way – in the face of the onslaught of evil the forces of good now stand at the black gates…what say you?
Okay…sorry – but can we leave this cr*p until later? There are more important issues to concern us. Like the future of our nation – Abbott is but a step away…
[PS, I’ve thrown you the bone of changing “Coalition” to “Liberal/National”.]
Don’t you mean Liberal/National/LNP ?
BTW, is Julie Bishop still safe as deputy leader now that LNP has about 20 MPs? Is Peter Slipper busy doing the numbers?
[4108
lefty e
In WA the ALP would’ve been reduced to 1 or 2 MARGINAL seats.
What, instead of *3* Frank?
See how irrelevant that is compared to QLD?]
WA Labor looks like holding 3 of 15 seats, while in QLD the count will be 8 of 30. The ratios are not so different and are approximately equally dismal. Labor has to figure out how to improve on this.
That’s how I see it Sertse. People don’t have an overly negative view of the Federal Liberals because Howard did a relatively good job of selling the brand. Abbott could trash this brand quite spectacularly… Time will tell!
At this stage my hopes rest on whoever forms government not doing so with enough seats to be able to block real parliamentary reform. Corangamite better not let me down!
I don’t know if Labor should be counting on Wilkie’s support. The more I think about it, the more I think he may just refuse to support either side and abstain in any confidence motion.
Liberals and The Nationals and the Western Australian Nationals Placed Theoretically Together For the Sake of Argument 73;
Labor and the Greens Placed Theoretically Together For the Sake of Argument 73
Independents 4
[Kind, but now the call will be for even more precision:
“Liberals and The Nationals and the Western Australian Nationals]
I just call them all neo-cons. I think that is truth-in-advertising.
[And the Katter Dirt has begun:
The Herald Sun heraldsun
Katter accused of threat to kill MP: BOB Katter, the maverick Queenslander poised to become an election kingmaker,… http://bit.ly/93MlI3 6 minutes ago via twitterfeed ]
This is what happens when you challenge the media. The ultimate power in this country. Hope he sticks it to them real good. What can they do to him????
Just watch what dirt turn up on Bandt.
That’s good enough for Labor vibe. Bandt plus Labor equal the Lib/Nat/CLP/WA Nat/LNP so if they can get 2 independents to abstain and 1 to support…
There wasn’t 100,000 of the new voters though, only 60,000ish. 40,000 of them were changed addresses within the same electorate.
Dr Good at 9: Yes, and add to that some serious Senate problems for a Lib minority government, particularly from next July; a leader who won his own party room by one vote, and Malcolm Turnbull (plus any other moderate Libs aligned with him) who have a few items on their agenda as well. ETS anyone?
Kinda makes you wonder where Abbott gets off with describing the ALP as in a “civil war”.
[if it’s coalition 73, isn’t that game over?]
No.
[I will NOT let my state be represented by a bunch of right wing neo crazies just so we can massage the egos of a bunch of vain Quincelanders.]
Frank, perhaps some of your tough love might have been required on you if it meant keeping the Qld seats at the price of the minimal WA seats.
[At this stage my hopes rest on whoever forms government not doing so with enough seats to be able to block real parliamentary reform. Corangamite better not let me down!]
As I said on the last thread. This election has been death by a thousand cuts.
I hope tomorrow brings something positive for us for a change.
Can’t be all bad – looks like my local member is going to be PM.
Maybe he will honour his promise of $10M to improve Brookvale Oval!!!
On a lighter note:
Oakeshott’s Unity Cabinet
Can anyone clarify for me what the position of the new member for O’Connor is, re either sitting with coalition or on cross benches? I keep hearing different reports.
Do you count Corangamite in that count. The results are looking very much like a liberal win based on the ALP picking up only 40% of the declaration votes.
If there was a new election what happens with the Senate? Is it possible to have a double dissolution? Does not the new Parliament need to sit and a trigger established? Can a Part/Senate that has not yet sat be dissolved in a double dissolution before taking office?
Fargo, his media line is that he won’t be joining the Coalition party room. However he’s declined to comment on whether he’ll join The Nationals party room.
Fargo, last i heard was that he becomes a team player upon receipt of a few costly promises for his electorate.
[WA Labor looks like holding 3 of 15 seats, while in QLD the count will be 8 of 30. The ratios are not so different and are approximately equally dismal. Labor has to figure out how to improve on this.]
By the denial on this thread from some Labor hacks, they don’t vene think there was a problem.
I don’t actually know him but my guess would be – count as a coalition. The WA Nationals talk big but don’t deliver.
DemocracyATWork, there can’t be a DD because there are no triggers. The triggers from the past parliament have all expired. They could have a House only election at any time.
Sorry, my comment @42 was for Fargo61 @ 37
Votes outstanding is available on the Declartions stats.
The parties have nearly the same number of seats – there is not a sufficient margin to make that the only criteria for the independents to decide who to support. That would be like devaluing & restricting the worth of the independents. They can decide to support which either party will deliver the innovation & flexibility sought by the independents & ensure parliamentary stability by working cooperatively with the senate.
The independents aren’t just numbers. The independents are an idea whose time has come!
He is claiming he will sit on the cross benches. The truth is that he will always vote with the Libs so long as they throw him enough cash (I mean essential infrastructure).
His campaign was funded by Clive Palmer. Only the delusional believe the bulldust abut him being independent.
I don’t know Frank from Adam, but he is spot on about what would have happened in WA if Rudd had been retained.
Wouldn’t the Coalition really need 74 to govern effectively? If they have 73 + 3 independents that still leaves a seat needed for the speaker, taking it back to 75.
I suppose Wilkie could support a Coalition government, but I still think that is unlikely, and Bandt supporting them should be totally ruled out, he wouldn’t be able to go anywhere in his own seat without police protection if he did.
Itep. Can there be a triiger before the new Senate takes office.
As to your last question, it’s a matter of constitutional interpretation by the Governor General. She might consider that the better option would be to present the dd trigger bill to the new Senate before granting a DD election.
if it’s coalition 73, isn’t that game over?
Read my mind, William!
Not necessarily anony, but most likely. Any higher and definitely.
From the other thread:
Gweneth@4148 on D-day plus 2 – The Poll Bludger
Magic mushrooms it seems.
Wiliam
LOath as I am to argue with the blogger you mean – 72 72 5 1
If ALP can;t count the greenie then fibs can;t count the WA Nat
Sometimes it’s better to get the pain out the way. Bring it on.
[I wouldn’t I want my party to be represented in the Lower House.]
What Frank? You would want to keep your few WA Labor seats even if it cost more seats overall? Says it all.
PS, I’ve thrown you the bone of changing “Coalition” to “Liberal/National”.
This might suggest that an Abbot led minority government
is possible. However it will only be supported in
parliament by a one seat majority (after the speaker
is chosen).
That is just not stable. I don’t see that even getting
off the ground.
It’s Time@7
No you fool, it’s called having your political views being represented in the lower house.
I will NOT let my state be represented by a bunch of right wing neo crazies just so we can massage the egos of a bunch of vain Quincelanders.
A long liberal rule has punctured by Whitlam which imploded quite spectacularly, handing the conservatives back in to power. It wasn’t until Hawke that a proper long-term labor government was formed.
Perhaps we’ll see the same here? heh….
woof woof
What happened to the 100,000 GetUp provisional votes?
Have they been counted yet?
See you all again in 2013
The Get Uo votes as you call them) will have been counted – new lists were issued so these people could vote as ordinary voters
And the Katter Dirt has begun:
[That is just not stable. I don’t see that even getting
off the ground.]
Sounds good to me, I love instability in the Tory side.
[What happened to the 100,000 GetUp provisional votes?
Have they been counted yet?]
Yes – they were featured on a supplementary roll and included in the election night count, except in remote locations where the roll could not be physically provided in time.
William Bowe@8
Kind, but now the call will be for even more precision:
“Liberals and The Nationals and the Western Australian Nationals Placed Theoretically Together For the Sake of Argument 73; Labor 72”
Katter has been considered batnumb-crazy anyways. So absolutely zero affect at all.
WA did OK in the face of feral rabidness. Leave us alone. What is this nonsense – that we have to sacrifice seats so that QLD lives? Look at it this way – in the face of the onslaught of evil the forces of good now stand at the black gates…what say you?
Okay…sorry – but can we leave this cr*p until later? There are more important issues to concern us. Like the future of our nation – Abbott is but a step away…
[PS, I’ve thrown you the bone of changing “Coalition” to “Liberal/National”.]
Don’t you mean Liberal/National/LNP ?
BTW, is Julie Bishop still safe as deputy leader now that LNP has about 20 MPs? Is Peter Slipper busy doing the numbers?
[4108
lefty e
In WA the ALP would’ve been reduced to 1 or 2 MARGINAL seats.
What, instead of *3* Frank?
See how irrelevant that is compared to QLD?]
WA Labor looks like holding 3 of 15 seats, while in QLD the count will be 8 of 30. The ratios are not so different and are approximately equally dismal. Labor has to figure out how to improve on this.
That’s how I see it Sertse. People don’t have an overly negative view of the Federal Liberals because Howard did a relatively good job of selling the brand. Abbott could trash this brand quite spectacularly… Time will tell!
At this stage my hopes rest on whoever forms government not doing so with enough seats to be able to block real parliamentary reform. Corangamite better not let me down!
I don’t know if Labor should be counting on Wilkie’s support. The more I think about it, the more I think he may just refuse to support either side and abstain in any confidence motion.
Liberals and The Nationals and the Western Australian Nationals Placed Theoretically Together For the Sake of Argument 73;
Labor and the Greens Placed Theoretically Together For the Sake of Argument 73
Independents 4
[Kind, but now the call will be for even more precision:
“Liberals and The Nationals and the Western Australian Nationals]
I just call them all neo-cons. I think that is truth-in-advertising.
[And the Katter Dirt has begun:
The Herald Sun heraldsun
Katter accused of threat to kill MP: BOB Katter, the maverick Queenslander poised to become an election kingmaker,… http://bit.ly/93MlI3 6 minutes ago via twitterfeed ]
This is what happens when you challenge the media. The ultimate power in this country. Hope he sticks it to them real good. What can they do to him????
Just watch what dirt turn up on Bandt.
That’s good enough for Labor vibe. Bandt plus Labor equal the Lib/Nat/CLP/WA Nat/LNP so if they can get 2 independents to abstain and 1 to support…
There wasn’t 100,000 of the new voters though, only 60,000ish. 40,000 of them were changed addresses within the same electorate.
Dr Good at 9: Yes, and add to that some serious Senate problems for a Lib minority government, particularly from next July; a leader who won his own party room by one vote, and Malcolm Turnbull (plus any other moderate Libs aligned with him) who have a few items on their agenda as well. ETS anyone?
Kinda makes you wonder where Abbott gets off with describing the ALP as in a “civil war”.
[if it’s coalition 73, isn’t that game over?]
No.
[I will NOT let my state be represented by a bunch of right wing neo crazies just so we can massage the egos of a bunch of vain Quincelanders.]
Frank, perhaps some of your tough love might have been required on you if it meant keeping the Qld seats at the price of the minimal WA seats.
[At this stage my hopes rest on whoever forms government not doing so with enough seats to be able to block real parliamentary reform. Corangamite better not let me down!]
As I said on the last thread. This election has been death by a thousand cuts.
I hope tomorrow brings something positive for us for a change.
Can’t be all bad – looks like my local member is going to be PM.
Maybe he will honour his promise of $10M to improve Brookvale Oval!!!
On a lighter note:
Oakeshott’s Unity Cabinet
Can anyone clarify for me what the position of the new member for O’Connor is, re either sitting with coalition or on cross benches? I keep hearing different reports.
Do you count Corangamite in that count. The results are looking very much like a liberal win based on the ALP picking up only 40% of the declaration votes.
If there was a new election what happens with the Senate? Is it possible to have a double dissolution? Does not the new Parliament need to sit and a trigger established? Can a Part/Senate that has not yet sat be dissolved in a double dissolution before taking office?
Fargo, his media line is that he won’t be joining the Coalition party room. However he’s declined to comment on whether he’ll join The Nationals party room.
Fargo, last i heard was that he becomes a team player upon receipt of a few costly promises for his electorate.
[WA Labor looks like holding 3 of 15 seats, while in QLD the count will be 8 of 30. The ratios are not so different and are approximately equally dismal. Labor has to figure out how to improve on this.]
By the denial on this thread from some Labor hacks, they don’t vene think there was a problem.
I don’t actually know him but my guess would be – count as a coalition. The WA Nationals talk big but don’t deliver.
DemocracyATWork, there can’t be a DD because there are no triggers. The triggers from the past parliament have all expired. They could have a House only election at any time.
Sorry, my comment @42 was for Fargo61 @ 37
Votes outstanding is available on the Declartions stats.
IE VIC DIVISION – CORANGAMITE
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionDecScrutinyProgress-15508-207.htm
It’s not just numbers.
The parties have nearly the same number of seats – there is not a sufficient margin to make that the only criteria for the independents to decide who to support. That would be like devaluing & restricting the worth of the independents. They can decide to support which either party will deliver the innovation & flexibility sought by the independents & ensure parliamentary stability by working cooperatively with the senate.
The independents aren’t just numbers. The independents are an idea whose time has come!
He is claiming he will sit on the cross benches. The truth is that he will always vote with the Libs so long as they throw him enough cash (I mean essential infrastructure).
His campaign was funded by Clive Palmer. Only the delusional believe the bulldust abut him being independent.
I don’t know Frank from Adam, but he is spot on about what would have happened in WA if Rudd had been retained.
Wouldn’t the Coalition really need 74 to govern effectively? If they have 73 + 3 independents that still leaves a seat needed for the speaker, taking it back to 75.
I suppose Wilkie could support a Coalition government, but I still think that is unlikely, and Bandt supporting them should be totally ruled out, he wouldn’t be able to go anywhere in his own seat without police protection if he did.
Itep. Can there be a triiger before the new Senate takes office.
As to your last question, it’s a matter of constitutional interpretation by the Governor General. She might consider that the better option would be to present the dd trigger bill to the new Senate before granting a DD election.