Newspoll: 61-39 to Coalition in NSW

Newspoll has given NSW Labor another thing to think about with its latest bi-monthly poll of state voting intention. The figures on voting intention are almost entirely identical to last time, it being impossible for Labor to go any lower: 25 per cent on the primary vote to 46 per cent for the Coalition and 14 per cent for the Greens (down two), translating into a two-party Coalition lead of 61-39. However, Kristina Keneally’s approval ratings are headed south: down eight points on approval to 39 per cent, and up seven on disapproval to 44 per cent. Barry O’Farrell’s approval is down a point to 43 per cent and his disapproval is steady on 33 per cent, but he has achieved parity with Keneally as preferred premier on 39 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

122 comments on “Newspoll: 61-39 to Coalition in NSW”

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  1. #97

    Some have suggested that Keneally was able to act “secularly” (despite her own religious views) when determining her attitude to this Bill.
    Those suggestions were complete CRAP.
    Keneally has brought her religious views (albeit her own interpretation of “Christian” teachings) into the Parliament.
    Claims she is acting secularly are a complete transparent FRAUD.

  2. How many apologies and how many expressions of sorrow will Keneally and her ministers make before we toss them out on their ass on 26 March 2011 ?
    Paul McLeay apologises

    [ “I would like to apologise to the premier, my parliamentary colleagues, my electorate and the people of NSW.

    “I apologise to my wife and family.

    “I understand that as a minister I accept that I am held to a higher standard and that’s why I have offered the premier my resignation.”

    He said he would not make any further comment and asked that his family’s privacy be respected.
    ]

    Keneally must have a template media release in her office (just insert name of relevant Minister or Labor MP).

  3. #102

    However McLeay’s resignation fits neatly with Keneally’s narrative. Her loss of popularity has nothing to do with her and is due to misbehaviour of her ministers and Labor MPs and…err corruption allegations…and failures of the public service to deliver programs on time and on budget…..and errrr……..

  4. Here we go again……
    [ Four right-wingers are pushing for Mr McLeay’s Cabinet spot. Tanya Gadiel, Leila McMahon and Andrew McDonald were understood to be putting their hands up, sources said, however powerbroker Eddie Obeid was backing Miranda MP Barry Collier.]
    Minister sacked as PC porn audit reveals blue Nile

    As I understand it Keneally has the right to choose her own Minister, and it is NOT necessary for a caucus selection (following reforms to the rules obtained by Nathan Rees with the support of Kevin Rudd – both now lanquishing on their respective backbenches).
    So who will Ms Keneally pick ?
    Barry Collier would have to be the favourite – subject to Keneally playing a game of cat and mouse by selecting someone else, in order to show she is nobody’s puppet. Maybe she can explain to Obeid the reason for her choice.

  5. The fact is that around Parliament, in the pubs and at the football, people are referring to the government as corrupt.
    Not in the sense of any particular minister or public servant, mind you. They are disparaging the whole system, from top to bottom, as riddled with self interest, opportunism and rorting of the public purse.
    The former independent state MP, John Hatton, who announced yesterday he would stand as a independent candidate for the Legislative Council, uses the word with conviction. ”We live in a corrupt state,” his media release stated.
    …….
    ”Open, accountable government, a level playing field for all business, freedom of information, ethical, impartial decision making in key areas simply does not exist in NSW,” Hatton declared. He has come out of retirement to tackle his old enemy. It’s as if he can smell it.
    Dysfunctional, corrupt and rotten, the end is finally nigh for Labor

    The resignation of McLeay has brought to the publics attention another feature of this perceived corrupt NSW Labor government, namely JOBS FOR FAMILY & FRIENDS, with the disclosure that McLeays wife works in the Premier’s office.

    NSW is the most highly populated state in Australia. Yet the talent pool is apparently so limited, relatives and friends of Labor “heavies” are everywhere in government jobs. Is this closed shop approach, cronyism seemingly running rampant – evident in any other state or is it just peculiar to NSW?

    How can anyone seriously argue this regime deserves, let alone should be allowed, another term in government?

  6. THE BIG LIE

    The big lie being perpetrated by supporters of Kristina Keneally (the right wing Premier of NSW who was installed in the post of Premier because NSW right wing factional warlords were frightened that the then left wing Premier Nathan Rees represented a danger to their hegemony) that Keneally acted on a “secular” basis (despite being a true believer in the Pope) in relation to her vote on the Adoption Bill, is exposed by the very words of Keneally herself when she spoke in the NSW Parliament commencing at 6.04pm.

    She said:-
    In forming my position on this bill I have considered my experiences as a mother, my responsibilities as a parliamentarian, and my conscience as a Christian and member of the Catholic faith.
    THE BIG LIE EXPOSED:- Keneally based her decision, in part, on her religious beliefs contrary to the BIG LIE.

    As a Christian and as a Catholic I accept that some may legitimately question how I can hold a position that appears to be in contrast to the teachings of my faith. I understand this and I will address it directly. The Catholic Church upholds the primacy of conscience and teaches that individuals must follow their own—this was reaffirmed at the Second Vatican Council. However, the Catholic Church is also clear that an individual has an obligation to fully form his or her conscience and that they do so by considering both faith and reason—that is, a fully formed conscience considers human experience and examines the revelation of God in the Scriptures, and the teachings of the church. In talking about such things I accept that I do so as a layperson, and not one that can lay claim to particular teaching authority. However, that is to some extent the point for it is precisely this type of examination that the church asks of each individual Catholic.
    THE BIG LIE EXPOSED:- Keneally’s religious views were front and centre of her decision. She did not make her decision without regard to religious propaganda or dogma. She wasted valuable parliamentary time explaining her version of her religious beliefs (which she ought keep to herself).

    Our understanding of the Scriptures is not static, but rather unfolds and deepens as it is interpreted in light of our experience. Before I speak to my experience, let me first examine the Scriptures. For any Christian the most important are the Gospels; the four books that present the life and teachings of Jesus Christ. However, none of the Gospels record Jesus specifically addressing the issue of homosexuality. What then did Jesus teach that might be useful for a Catholic seeking to fully form their conscience on this issue? First, Jesus talked about family. In the Gospel according to Matthew, Jesus is told that his mother and brothers are outside waiting for him to finish preaching. His reply was:

    Here are my mother and my brothers. For whoever does the will of my Father in heaven is my brother, and sister, and mother.

    The lesson I take from this is that family is not necessarily limited to those who are directly related. The bonds of a family can be created in other ways—in this case, spiritually. Here Jesus is characterising family in broad and accepting terms and this challenges me to do the same. Secondly, Jesus talked about children. He valued them, and demanded that others do the same. When some were seeking to keep children from approaching Jesus, he said:

    Let the little children come to me, and do not hinder them, for the kingdom of heaven belongs to such as these.

    But mostly, Jesus talked about love. He talked about it constantly:

    A new command I give you: Love one another. As I have loved you, so you must love one another.

    By this all will know that you are my disciples, if you love one another.

    Greater love hath no one than this, than to lay down his life for another.

    You must love the Lord your God with all your heart, all your soul, and all your mind. This is the first and greatest commandment.

    A second is equally important: Love your neighbour as yourself.

    The entire law and all the demands of the prophets are based on these two commandments.

    For Jesus, the law that is to govern above all else is that we are to love one another. And not just any love, but an unselfish love, a love that seeks to mirror God’s love for us, a love that is shown not just to our relatives, not just to our friends, but to all those around us. We are to love them as much as we love ourselves. This love would be so great that we would give up our lives for another human being. This is the overwhelming message of the Gospels—a message of unselfish, giving, self-sacrificing love.
    THE BIG LIE EXPOSED- Now Keneally wastes further valuable time of the Parliament by engaging in a bible-bashing exercise. I simply don’t want to hear the filth that is contained in “the word of God”. It appears Keneally is using the parliament to publicise the propaganda in that book. Hardly the act of a Premier acting in a “secular” manner.

    As a Catholic, I am also asked by the Church to consider its teachings in forming my conscience. The Church’s teachings are expressed in documents and statements by bishops, the Pope and the ecclesiastical councils. These documents all make clear statements about the positive nature of human beings, the role and importance of the family and the distinction between homosexual orientation and homosexual activity. Time does not permit me to elaborate on each of these points at length but to address them in summary. The Church teaches that: children should be raised in a family that consists of a mother and a father; that all humans are created in the image and likeness of God; that homosexual orientation, in itself, is not sinful or blameworthy but that homosexual activity is; and that homosexual persons should not be the subject of discrimination or vilification.

    THE BIG LIE EXPOSED AGAIN. Keneally has clearly made her decision based on her religious views. Parliament is not the place for a theological lesson, or discuss varying interpretations of the book held by adherrents of “the book” and believers in the biggest fairy tale ever perpetrated on mankind.

    Had it not been for supporters of Keneally trying to spin that she was going to decide the issue in a “secular” way, this lengthy post would not have been necessary. However, when the BIG LIE is made – it has to be carefully exposed.

  7. PY106

    Gosh she did go-on

    PY 105

    This is a very good summary of a key issue:
    [NSW is the most highly populated state in Australia. Yet the talent pool is apparently so limited, relatives and friends of Labor “heavies” are everywhere in government jobs. Is this closed shop approach, cronyism seemingly running rampant]

  8. Just to remedy News Corp’s inability to get facts correct, it is “Lylea McMahon”, member for Shellharbour (and with a 22% margin, the only one of this quartet with a safe seat.

    Barry Collier has the potential distinction of being the first ex-MP come March, as he holds Miranda on 0.8% margin (that ALP holds Miranda at all is an indictment of the NSW Liberals own political competence: it lies within the Scott Morrison’s Federal division of Cook)

    [Four right-wingers are pushing for Mr McLeay’s Cabinet spot. Tanya Gadiel, Leila McMahon and Andrew McDonald were understood to be putting their hands up, sources said, however powerbroker Eddie Obeid was backing Miranda MP Barry Collier.]

  9. [She wasted valuable parliamentary time explaining her version of her religious beliefs (which she ought keep to herself).]

    Exactly why Peter? Isn’t it better for people to be honest about the reasons they’ve reached decisions?

  10. #109

    That is my personal belief. When it comes to the fantasy of religion, which is responsible for so much of the world’s, and personal, misery I have nothing but sheer contempt.
    Society takes the view that it has the right to impose its views on people – because of the harm certain things do. For example some drugs are totally prohibited e.g. heroin. Other drugs are considered dangerous enough, that they should only be available on prescription under medical supervision e.g. Schedule 4 drugs.

    I believe religion is in the same category as heroin.

    Not only should religion be banned completely, but talking about it, participating in it and even expressing a sympathetic attitude to it should be banned. The assests of all religious organisations should be expropriated (they are largely built on tax free incomes).

    Keneallys use of parliament to deliver a “theological” lesson to the citizenry, under cover of acting “secularly” :-
    a. Is repugnant,
    b. Demonstrates how she is trying to bring religion into play via the backdoor.

    Parliament is no place for religious discussion.

    Whatever differences Keneally has with the catholic church should be discussed through the catholic organisation, not in our parliament. We are not interested. She is wasting our valuable time, on discussing something that will in the long run be banned and thankfully banished from the world.

  11. #110

    I should add that anyone who actually believes the Pope has the ability to appoint people and allocate to them the power to actually turn wine into the blood of Christ and bread into the body of Christ – is by definition a fool or mentally deranged.

  12. “I understand that as a minister I accept that I am held to a higher standard and that’s why I have offered the premier my resignation.”

    Held to a higher standard?

    I’d have thought spending work hours looking at porn would be unacceptable under any standard….

  14. #113

    Reading Keneally’s speech you get the impression she is setting up a defence against any moves to ex-communicate her from the Pope’s Church.

    Well f….. her…Parliament is not the place for that. She is using the resources of the state for her own personal reasons.

    IMHO, Keneally HYPOCRISY is thy name.

  15. [ We have no joy in saying this. The Labor Party in this nation and in this state has a long history of representing the values and aspirations of working-class people like those in the Illawarra. Indeed, before the federal election we editorialised that we believed a Gillard government, all things considered, would be best to lead the nation.
    But this state Labor government is simply awful. It has lurched from crisis to crisis. Even putting aside the constant soap opera of sex scandals, lies and affairs of its MPs, the Government can barely manage an envelope opening without controversy.
    ]
    MERCURY SAYS: It’s time to call it a day, Ms Keneally

  17. Poor old Fairfax (Illawarra Mercury) can’t take a trick. Its calls for Keneally to go have been met with abuse. One reader wrote this:-

    So the Mercury has finally joined the wider communities call for a change of Government? Not more than two weeks after ‘hoisting the Labor Party flag’ on a full page spread declaring that Illawarra Voters should back them at a Federal level! A Federal Labor Party that Anna Bligh and others have openly declared is rampant with “NSW Disease”! Meaning that its been corrupted by those same people that have controlled and destroyed Government here in our State, the Arbibs Bitars, Tripodis, and Obeids. Your newspaper has become an embarrassment to us all, and your Editor should go for reducing its proud 150 year history to nothing but tabloid trash!
    MERCURY SAYS: It’s time to call it a day, Ms Keneally

  18. Keneally doesn’t have to bow to the pressure of Eddie Obeid. She has taken the path of not appointing a new minister, instead distributing McLeays responsibilities to existing ministers and creating more parliamentary secretary positions.
    Eric Roozendaal – gets Ports and Waterways, Illawarra
    S. Whan – gets Mineral and Forest Resources.

    Lylea McMahon – gets a parliamentary secretary job, as p.s. for the Illawarra.

    Existing p.s. Penny Sharpe and David Harris take on additional responsibilities.
    Keneally shuffles Cabinet after McLeay resignation

    Having less ministers reduces the risk of more resignations because there is a smaller pool to draw from, so it might be a wise move.

  20. The fake Keneally on Twitter is suggesting that Sophie Cotsis’s elevation to the Upper House is a good career move because:-
    [ KKKeneally – Obviously, Sophie Cotsis’s value as a lobbyist will go down somewhat after March. ]
    based on the fake Keneally’s assertion that:-
    [ KKKeneally – Sophie Cotsis even has ‘real world’ experience. She’s “Manager, Government Relations” for some lobbyists. ]

  22. Laocoon

    If I remember correctly, before the last election, the ALP held Miranda by about 10%, the Liberal had Graham Annasley (League Ref) and that was the only reason they got so close

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