Morgan SMS exit poll: 51-49 to Labor

I’m not ready to endorse the methodology being used here, but just out interest, let it be noted Morgan has produced an obviously premature SMS exit poll showing Labor on 38.5 per cent, the Coalition on 43 per cent and the Greens on 12 per cent, with Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred. Stay tuned this evening for live blogging and a CoverIt Live chat room featuring myself and other Crikey types.

At 1pm today a special sms Morgan ‘Exit’ Poll shows the primary vote is ALP 38.5% , L-NP 43%, Greens 12% and 6.5% Others and Independents. On a 2 Party Preferred basis this still translates to 51% ALP 49% L-NP as reported in the 7News Morgan Poll last night and this morning on Sunrise.

This 1pm update is based on 1,211 electors from The Roy Morgan Elector Panel who have texted their vote to the Morgan Poll once they had voted.

This is the first time that an sms vote on a controlled panel has been recorded through the election.

Because the original panel is controlled, and their previous voting intention and their vote at the last election is known it is possible to project from the sms ‘exit’ poll to an Australia-wide vote.

Gary Morgan says:

We are pleased with the response to this new sms ‘exit’ poll methodology.

Although this Morgan Poll uses sms technology, it is unlike typical sms voting systems that are open to all and therefore potentially open to interest groups ‘stacking’ the numbers. The sms Morgan ‘Exit’ Poll uses a controlled panel – The Roy Morgan Elector Panel.

UPDATE: Quick and dirty exit poll summary, with thanks to Scorpio in comments.

This all looks good so far. I like Possum’s comment.

KJBar RT @Pollytics Galaxy exit poll – ALP 52/48. All exit polls consistent. #ausvotes

SkyNewsAust Sky News exit poll 2PP LAB 51%, COA 49% – watch online here: http://bit.ly/ojmm3

Pollytics The Auspoll exit poll of 30 marginal seats going to Labor 51/49 simulates out as ~82 seats in Parliament #ausvotes

Pollytics The Auspoll shows only a half a percent swing on those 30 marginals #ausvotes

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

850 comments on “Morgan SMS exit poll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Wow my beloved dear wife has announced the ingredients of the snacks to keep us fortified during the battle ahead…red wine, red savs, red onions and red tomatoes, rare red steak bites, red tortilla chips and salsa, strawberries, cherries, more red wine and woops I will be red the riot act if I get too piddly eyed…she says its all red in honor of our esteemed leader and winner Julia of the red hair….how sweet 🙂

  3. Ch 9 have stated that their exit poll states only a 0.6% liberal swing and a 2pp of 52% labor however they say the same poll says a 6% QLD swing and a 4.5% swing NSW to libs and only a 2.7% swing to Lab in Vic.

    Regardless of whether there is any truth in exit polls, how can the above add up? Surely there is not enough population in the other states to offset the QLD/NSW swing to create only a 0.6% swing?

  16. ModLib

    Gawd!! You Libs!

    Last time I looked, Dickson was held by Peter Dutton, a Liberal (Shadow minister for Health). Might be nominally ALP since redistribution, but it’s still Liberals’ to lose. It’s not one of Labor’s current total.

    Wakey wakey!

  26. if lindsay is anywhere near that than Greenway is gone as well. on the flip side it bodes better for regional nsw labor seats and some they are trying to get like Paterson. (if the swing is only 2% across the board in nsw)

  29. 300 is too small a sample for any exit poll to be informative of anything more than how those 300 voted. Unless you also know the demographics, it is without any predictive value.

  42. [with 2 boats having arrived in the past few days it would be a miracle for alp to hold ‘redneck-central’ lindsay]

    Didn’t even amount to a text message on the boat phone.

  44. [Erica Betz is doing a very good impersonation of B A Santamaria.]

    I just switched over to the commercials, only to find both 7 and 9 are hosted by their breakfast hosts!

  47. [I just switched over to the commercials, only to find both 7 and 9 are hosted by their breakfast hosts!]
    Obviously for the deep analytical approach.

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