Morgan SMS exit poll: 51-49 to Labor

I’m not ready to endorse the methodology being used here, but just out interest, let it be noted Morgan has produced an obviously premature SMS exit poll showing Labor on 38.5 per cent, the Coalition on 43 per cent and the Greens on 12 per cent, with Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred. Stay tuned this evening for live blogging and a CoverIt Live chat room featuring myself and other Crikey types.

At 1pm today a special sms Morgan ‘Exit’ Poll shows the primary vote is ALP 38.5% , L-NP 43%, Greens 12% and 6.5% Others and Independents. On a 2 Party Preferred basis this still translates to 51% ALP 49% L-NP as reported in the 7News Morgan Poll last night and this morning on Sunrise.

This 1pm update is based on 1,211 electors from The Roy Morgan Elector Panel who have texted their vote to the Morgan Poll once they had voted.

This is the first time that an sms vote on a controlled panel has been recorded through the election.

Because the original panel is controlled, and their previous voting intention and their vote at the last election is known it is possible to project from the sms ‘exit’ poll to an Australia-wide vote.

Gary Morgan says:

We are pleased with the response to this new sms ‘exit’ poll methodology.

Although this Morgan Poll uses sms technology, it is unlike typical sms voting systems that are open to all and therefore potentially open to interest groups ‘stacking’ the numbers. The sms Morgan ‘Exit’ Poll uses a controlled panel – The Roy Morgan Elector Panel.

UPDATE: Quick and dirty exit poll summary, with thanks to Scorpio in comments.

This all looks good so far. I like Possum’s comment.

KJBar RT @Pollytics Galaxy exit poll – ALP 52/48. All exit polls consistent. #ausvotes

SkyNewsAust Sky News exit poll 2PP LAB 51%, COA 49% – watch online here: http://bit.ly/ojmm3

Pollytics The Auspoll exit poll of 30 marginal seats going to Labor 51/49 simulates out as ~82 seats in Parliament #ausvotes

Pollytics The Auspoll shows only a half a percent swing on those 30 marginals #ausvotes

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

850 comments on “Morgan SMS exit poll: 51-49 to Labor”

  1. Handed out HTV cards in Wannon today.

    The local paper has covered politics well in the campaign, todays headline was “make it marginal”, in 2007 Libs got 52% of primaries iirc.

    A poll of 197 last night by the local paper (warrnambool standard) had
    Libs: 29.4%
    Lab: 23.9%
    Grn: 13.7%

    The rest split between 5 independents.

    The liberal candidate was criticized from within his own party as a “blow in” that doesn’t understand local issues.

    This is Malcolm Fraser’s old seat, it wouldnt surprise me if his dis-endorsement of the liberal party influences some of the older voters down here.

    The seat beside us is Corangamite, which was held by libs for 70 years until 2007, there is a feeling that if we make our seat close then we might get some pork too.

    Handing out HTV cards, it felt like a lot more people had made up their mind this year than in 2007, and it didn’t feel like liberals where getting any extra attention from voters.

    I was handing out card for an Independent, comment of the day for me was when a young bloke approached (probably only knew enough about politics to be a cynic), i said to him “Independent, can make his own decisions”, to which he responded, “well im not bloody voting for him then”.

  2. Better Better Best at 4.14pm. Too damn right. Barbara Bennett the Liberal face of workchoices is still in her job in the Public Service on 400k plus for Christs sake. If Labor should win there needs to be a cleanout in many areas. All this turn the other cheek business is for losers. What the hell is wrong with a bit of revenge. Abbott has said that if he wins that the heads of most departments in the PS will remain in their jobs. No Bloody wonder.

  3. [7 morgan exit poll for Lindsay 58% LNP 42% ALP]
    I don’t understand how they do the exit polls. Do they survey all the booths?
    The booths north of my electorate are strong Labor. The booths in the south are strong Liberal. How do they do it?

  4. [Ch 9. Costello, Kroger and Joyce… plus Arbib… More turds floating there than in a public toilet]
    Public toilets serve a usefull and needed roll in society. Lets call this lot “Team Pants-On-Fire”.

  5. Feeling good all round. Just two tidying up points: Rudd medical issues seriously raised by some medicoes, Victoria, whom I was channelling; someone quoted Bruce Hawker: I’d get another witness as well – Hawker’s website as recently as last week showed an out-of-date pendulum (based on draft redistribution not final). Labor by 10; Scott Morrison to stand against Abbott within 12 months.

  6. This is good 1.2x points is a confident labor govt.

    Betting our way now. Polls our way.

    This is good.

    *pop out again, abc is starting soooon!*

  7. The countdown is on. I will be glued to this chair for several hours. The laptop has several sites open (including PB and the AEC) and ample provisions are at hand.
    Here we go!

  8. I have just come in
    The Betting is really going bananas for ALP
    Sportingbet 1.35 to $3.00
    Betfair $1.20 to 3.70
    Centrebet $1.29 to $3.25
    Isn’t that good?
    5 minut4esw to go in Eastern states

  9. [ Ch 9. Costello, Kroger and Joyce… plus Arbib… More turds floating there than in a public toilet ]

    Perhaps someone can persaude them to go on a mission to colonise the sun 😀

  10. David Stephens

    I believe Rudd was under a great deal of pressue. Autisum? I doubt very much Rudd fits into that category. Okay, maybe some characteristics of Aspergers, but I would say if you analyse anyone long enough, we all have certain offbeat behaviours, socially and physically.

  11. Long time lurker driven to the surface by the tension. Before the election was called I booked to see Kafka’s Trial tonight. Seems apt now but I will not be able to concentrate. Normally I watch the election intently but part of me simply wants to be told the result and not watch the possible horror of Abbott winning.

  12. in 07 my twin brother and I celebrated the labour victory over howard,he died six mouths ago hoping abbott would never be PM, so if we win tonight it will oh so sweet.

  13. Getluv, did the same using sportingbet instead of betfair:
    NSW ALP same 6 losses (Bennelong, Gilmore, Lindsay, Macarthur, Macq, Robertson)
    QLD ALP loses 6 (Bonn, Dawson, Dickson, Leich, Flynn, Herbert) ie not Forde
    Other ALP loses 3 (Melb, Hasluck, Swan) ie not Corangamite and Solomon is50:50
    but gains 2 (La trobe, McEwen)

    That means Sportingbet is ALP to win $1.35 but has ALP only winning 75 seats by my calculations! Something still fishy going on there…

  14. William et al

    Your fame and reputation have spread as it should – a Labor booth worker showed a printout of this thread about an hour ago just before I bid the handing out to vote experience for 2010 goodbye!

    We had a full day at Eastwood Public School – spoke with Maxine who was upbeat, and we put up with the cheers from the libs for JA and Phoney Tone who turned up after the bloodhounds had checked that none of us are terrorists. But in the circus I couldn’t even see the top of Tone’s head! Of course we are used to this sort of mayhem because little Johnnie would turn up regularly for a similar performance. Oh for some sanity!

    Not certain that Maxine will survive but she was very positive and handed out for a considerable time. Lindsay Peters the Greens candidate handed out all day at Eastwood and reported he had a lot of positive comments. He is a really fine candidate.

    And not to forget the school community – they were great – for the first time they offered booth workers cups of tea and coffee and even water – wonderful – they deserve our thanks. And the new school classrooms look fantastic and are almost ready for use!!

    What I have read here gives me hope for tonight and the future – many thanks William for all your work in providing this level of information and also to the bloggers – you are a wonderful resource – for those of us interested in Australia and its fate!

  15. Ch10 exit poll. automated phonepoll 52/48 ALP/Libs but marginals are the other way around. They say between 74 to 81 seats for ALP. They think ALP to lose 9 and retain power.

  16. I posted this earlier but it must have got lost in the pace this thread moves.

    If there are people outside the polling station at 6.00pm are they just turned away? – ie they left it a bit late and ended up at the tail end of a queue. I always vote as early as I can so have never been in this position.

  17. OK team I have cracked the first stubbie, its sleeves up and into the bizzo, and gooooooooooooo Julia and the team…good luck everyone, here’s to a winning night (slurp ahh)

  18. [I’m off to Beechworth in a few weeks to do a bit of wine tasting. I’ll follow that lead on the Cofield ( which I’ve never heard of)]
    Don’t go past the Beechworth bakery. It was the best.

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