I’m not ready to endorse the methodology being used here, but just out interest, let it be noted Morgan has produced an obviously premature SMS exit poll showing Labor on 38.5 per cent, the Coalition on 43 per cent and the Greens on 12 per cent, with Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred. Stay tuned this evening for live blogging and a CoverIt Live chat room featuring myself and other Crikey types.
At 1pm today a special sms Morgan ‘Exit’ Poll shows the primary vote is ALP 38.5% , L-NP 43%, Greens 12% and 6.5% Others and Independents. On a 2 Party Preferred basis this still translates to 51% ALP 49% L-NP as reported in the 7News Morgan Poll last night and this morning on Sunrise.
This 1pm update is based on 1,211 electors from The Roy Morgan Elector Panel who have texted their vote to the Morgan Poll once they had voted.
This is the first time that an sms vote on a controlled panel has been recorded through the election.
Because the original panel is controlled, and their previous voting intention and their vote at the last election is known it is possible to project from the sms ‘exit’ poll to an Australia-wide vote.
Gary Morgan says:
We are pleased with the response to this new sms ‘exit’ poll methodology.
Although this Morgan Poll uses sms technology, it is unlike typical sms voting systems that are open to all and therefore potentially open to interest groups ‘stacking’ the numbers. The sms Morgan ‘Exit’ Poll uses a controlled panel – The Roy Morgan Elector Panel.
UPDATE: Quick and dirty exit poll summary, with thanks to Scorpio in comments.
This all looks good so far. I like Possum’s comment.
KJBar RT @Pollytics Galaxy exit poll – ALP 52/48. All exit polls consistent. #ausvotes
SkyNewsAust Sky News exit poll 2PP LAB 51%, COA 49% – watch online here: http://bit.ly/ojmm3
Pollytics The Auspoll exit poll of 30 marginal seats going to Labor 51/49 simulates out as ~82 seats in Parliament #ausvotes
Pollytics The Auspoll shows only a half a percent swing on those 30 marginals #ausvotes
Text me, Sex me, and Vex me
I’d be interested to see what the Primary vote is in NSW and QLD from this poll
Nothing much can be said about it really. You’d need to have faith in Morgan’s research methodology. No real reason to doubt it I suppose.
[Apeman – I expect us to know one way or the other by about 9pm.]
I hope your right glory, but there always seems to be at least one seat where it drags on for days. That normally doesn’t matter because the overall result is usually clear, but if this comes down to a near dead heat then it will matter.
I would rather be in Julia’s shoes than Abbott’s right now though!
We know that it will be 51-52 for ALP any way, so what is new here.
Yes, questionable methods – but yet again, rather be on 51 than 49.
lefty e @965:
[Fact is: An Abbott win remains the least likely outcome today. ]
Yes, my view in these last couple of days has been that an Abbott government is not likely and the election will probably produce another Gillard government – but whether in minority or majority, and whether it lasts the distance if in minority or bare majority are the real questions.
centre
so would i, i love heels lol
A Morgan SMS Exit poll? Fascinating. It’s still just a poll. They might just as well have added another question: what type of phone are you using? More use.
The real COUNT starts in around 3.5 hours. Looking forward to it. 77 Labor.
does anyone know off hand, if Libs were not joined with the Nationals, what would be Libs primary vote?
[I would rather be in Julia’s shoes]
Always had me doubts about you sunshine
😉
[Nothing much can be said about it really. You’d need to have faith in Morgan’s research methodology. No real reason to doubt it I suppose.]
Have to treat everything Morgan with a touch of salt just because their own comments interpreting their own polling are so often completely harebrained, and because they still don’t realise that their F2Fs are duds and comparing them with phone-polls is ridiculous.
Gee – a lot of roads are pointing to 51-49 and that might not be enough,I’m off to walk the dog.
btw: the voting booth where i voted host both Bradfield and North sydney. first time, i have seen it. so i kicked the sign for Sloppy “accidentally’
Gusface
what is vibe in lovely NSW? Have you been on any more adventures today?
@ Sean from last thread:
I was being facetious with that statement. What I was inferring was that the appearance of unrest in the ranks over Rudd’s demise is pandering the the press’ meme and thus destabilises the party and ordinary types who will buy into the instability message.
Probably should have been a bit more lucid — time for food I think.
Not an academic per se (as in I don’t teach at university — only comm colleges and writer’s centres) but have extensive tertiary study on history, mythology and belief systems.
like to see julia in a pair of budgie smugglers lol
[I hope your right glory, but there always seems to be at least one seat where it drags on for days. That normally doesn’t matter because the overall result is usually clear, but if this comes down to a near dead heat then it will matter.]
That’s probably more likely this time seeing as about 15% of people have pre-polled.
Victoria
That’s tricky – National don’t contest every seat Libs do.
What is interesting is that the NP is becoming irrelevant. They current have only 9 HR seats. With more city folk moving to the country coastal areas, and strong Independents, I see little future for them as a standalone party.
Sertse@848 on Newspoll, Nielsen, Westpoll – The Poll Bludger
That’s my booth! Hope you did the right thing…
I don’t care what the methodology is, an SMS exit poll at 1pm should be taken with a grain of salt.
Aren’t they counting pre polls on the night this year?
Correct me if Im wrong, but pre-polled votes are counted just the same as ordinary votes. ie today.
its postals that cause delays.
cupid, come to think of it, I’d much rather be inside anything of Julia than Abbott eeewww!
Reporting an exit poll before the voting has closed is so shonky. Boo.
I did laugh earlier when the news reader on abc news 24 accidently said “former prime minister Julia Gillard” – she quickly apologised for that one!
Bah, there was a pall over the voting booth I attended this morning … nobody looked happy, no sausages for sale, and one forlorn Rainbow Labor volunteer looking more lost than anyone else!
coalition out to $3.05 on betfair
blues buffett
Based on your thoughts that they will not be a standalone party in future, what will the Libs rely on in future?
There’s always one seat that drags on for days. I think Labor will have enough seats by 9.00pm and it’ll just be waiting on WA to see whether it’s just enough or more comfortable.
[I don’t care what the methodology is, an SMS exit poll at 1pm should be taken with a grain of salt.]
Agreed – but likesay, rather be the 51 than the 49.
I say get the word out: Phoney is falling short.
[I don’t care what the methodology is, an SMS exit poll at 1pm should be taken with a grain of salt.]
Esp when it doesn’t tell us anything we don’t know.
William-
do you have info on how many seats at the last election were unresolved on election night? please
[I don’t care what the methodology is, an SMS exit poll at 1pm should be taken with a grain of salt.]
Yeah, after last night I didn’t get out of bed till 1:30 and … hey … where’s my phone?
No way lefty – keep the neck-and-neck narrative going.
Victoria
I should also add they have only 4 Senators (Libs 32) out of 76 nationally.
I know that the rodent sulkily refused to concede for a few days, although it was fairly obvious he had lost
[what type of phone are you using?] If they are using fixed line phones, they are more likely to be older people, who appear to be pro Liberal?.
While the sample is small — the double polling of the same sample would have some value, especially about the effectiveness of advertising and media commentary.
If everyone, or most, still polled the same way (and I don’t know what the first poll results are) it would imply, I would think, that the advertising and media hype doesn’t do much but perhaps reinforce the opinions of those who have already decided.
If the voting intention HAS changed, where and how it changed could be telling. If the sample was bigger …?
Came across this
“Gillard, a Welsh-born child immigrant with a working-class accent”
from
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100820/ap_on_re_as/as_australia_election
Preferred accent polls next?
[Based on your thoughts that they will not be a standalone party in future, what will the Libs rely on in future?]
Debt, deficit, boats and fear.
Dont think this could be a random sample, there will be some bias built into it.
Blues, it’s 5 including the CLP senator who sits with the Nationals.
Re an early arvo exit poll, riddle me this: who votes latest in the day?
My money’s on youngsters.
Which I am now adding to the “Fevered search for all positives” column of the ledger.
libs out to $3.10 betfair
Victoria
The only way forward for the Nationals is to merge with the Libs, like in Qld in 2008 (although there the Nationals were the major party). Will be uncomfortable at first, but essential.
Sloppy looked very gloomy as he entered to vote
Dutton really adds a lot with this bit of insight.
[“All the predictions are that it will be close. In the end nobody knows. We’ll have a better idea later tonight,” he told reporters.]
[Re an early arvo exit poll, riddle me this: who votes latest in the day?]
People working in retail.
I’m no expert William, and I stand by your judgements and respect them, but very surprised you have made a thread out of this. I don’t really care, just surprised.
[No way lefty – keep the neck-and-neck narrative going.]
You reckon? Well, it is pretty close.
I wouldn’t like undecided folks to think the swing was on – is all.