Morgan SMS exit poll: 51-49 to Labor

I’m not ready to endorse the methodology being used here, but just out interest, let it be noted Morgan has produced an obviously premature SMS exit poll showing Labor on 38.5 per cent, the Coalition on 43 per cent and the Greens on 12 per cent, with Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred. Stay tuned this evening for live blogging and a CoverIt Live chat room featuring myself and other Crikey types.

At 1pm today a special sms Morgan ‘Exit’ Poll shows the primary vote is ALP 38.5% , L-NP 43%, Greens 12% and 6.5% Others and Independents. On a 2 Party Preferred basis this still translates to 51% ALP 49% L-NP as reported in the 7News Morgan Poll last night and this morning on Sunrise.

This 1pm update is based on 1,211 electors from The Roy Morgan Elector Panel who have texted their vote to the Morgan Poll once they had voted.

This is the first time that an sms vote on a controlled panel has been recorded through the election.

Because the original panel is controlled, and their previous voting intention and their vote at the last election is known it is possible to project from the sms ‘exit’ poll to an Australia-wide vote.

Gary Morgan says:

We are pleased with the response to this new sms ‘exit’ poll methodology.

Although this Morgan Poll uses sms technology, it is unlike typical sms voting systems that are open to all and therefore potentially open to interest groups ‘stacking’ the numbers. The sms Morgan ‘Exit’ Poll uses a controlled panel – The Roy Morgan Elector Panel.

UPDATE: Quick and dirty exit poll summary, with thanks to Scorpio in comments.

This all looks good so far. I like Possum’s comment.

KJBar RT @Pollytics Galaxy exit poll – ALP 52/48. All exit polls consistent. #ausvotes

SkyNewsAust Sky News exit poll 2PP LAB 51%, COA 49% – watch online here: http://bit.ly/ojmm3

Pollytics The Auspoll exit poll of 30 marginal seats going to Labor 51/49 simulates out as ~82 seats in Parliament #ausvotes

Pollytics The Auspoll shows only a half a percent swing on those 30 marginals #ausvotes

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

850 comments on “Morgan SMS exit poll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  4. [“All the predictions are that it will be close. In the end nobody knows. We’ll have a better idea later tonight,” he told reporters.]………..

    Dutton must be worried……..:)

  5. Itep@41

    Thanks for the pickup. Can’t think how I could ever forget Nigel!

    It’s still very few though. The Nationals are on the way out as an individual party.

  6. My memory’s that there were still around half a dozen seats in serious doubt on the night last time, and this is normal.

  8. [Wasn’t bet fair up at $4 just days ago?]
    I got some money on the coalition at $4.50 about a week ago. Will pay for my plane ticket to a civilized country if Abbott wins.

  9. If you are undecided today then you aren’t following the media very closely and wouldn’t pick up any signs of momentum either way.

  12. [If you are undecided today then you aren’t following the media very closely and wouldn’t pick up any signs of momentum either way.]

    Most people would be doing real things today, like family activities, sport, working etc, so probably wouldn’t have much access to media.

  13. lefty e#43

    I usually vote early in morning, but today being first time my daughter voted. I had to wait for her. Hence I voted in afternoon.

  20. The thing I got at the ballot was there was no mood at all. I was the most jovial and obnoxious.

    In 2007 when we all wanted change — there was an energy … it was charged.

    What the lack means is anyone’s guess, but it doesn’t say ‘massive swing’ to me.

  21. I’m not interested in Betfair right now, small amounts executed can change the odds.

    At last a breakthrough:

    One of the big agencies has moved it’s odds, now we need others to follow suit or cease betting.

    ALP 1.46 into 1.40 / LNP 2.65 out to 2.80

  22. Musrum:

    You could of corrected my embarrassing slip! *West* Public. Luckily I voted (Greens -> Labor) before the Lib’s subliminal messages of Waste got to me. 🙂

    Your thoughts on the booth? It’s generally a more liberal part of a safe labor seat. We’re kind of at the fringes, – once you cross Como bridge and eventually into the Shire then Cronulla you start going into liberal seats.

  26. Report on Adelaide (electorate) – seems to be heaps more ALP stuff than Lib stuff up around the place, and a strong Greens presence. One Lib handing out where I voted, another lone Lib at the main CBD polling place (where interstaters incidentally have to vote). About 300 of those “Abbott don’t risk it” posters showing him with the sweaty eyes looking like a serial killer.

    Apparently a lot of Melbourne electorate Greens voters are around for some reason, and the Greens didn’t have any Melbourne HTVs in the city but have sorted this. The HTV cards for the Greens in Sturt have their candidate “1” and “?” in every other box – that decision will look very silly if it’s close any Pyne survived by a handful of votes.

  27. Breaking news… The local supermarket in one of the mcewen voting places has completely run out of panadol.
    Whose heads are hurting? Victoria?

  31. gloryconsequence.

    I promised someone else on this blog a few days ago that I would not be ageist!

    But 100+ is stretching it a bit!!

  35. For those in need of inspiration:

    “My brothers! I see in your eyes the same fear that would take the heart of me! A day may come when the courage of men fails, when we forsake our friends and break all bonds of fellowship. But it is not this day. An hour of wolves and shattered shields when the age of Men comes crashing down! But it is not this day! This day we fight! ”

    (ok this is Aragorn in the film not the book but not bad)

    Or:
    “He which hath no stomach to this fight,
    Let him depart; his password shall be unmade,
    And crowns for Murdoch paywall subscriptions put into his purse;
    We would not bludge in that man’s company
    That fears his fellowship to bludge with us.
    This day is call’d the feast of Julia.
    He that outlives this day, and comes safe home,
    Will stand a tip-toe when this day is nam’d,
    And rouse him at the name of Julia.
    He that shall live this day, and see old age,
    Will yearly on the vigil feast his neighbours,
    And say ‘To-morrow is Saint Julia.’
    Then will he open his archive and show his posts ,
    And say ‘These posts I made on Julia’s day.’
    Old men forget; yet all shall be forgot,
    But he’ll remember, with advantages,
    What feats he did that day. Then shall our names,
    Familiar in his mouth as household words-
    BillBowe our host; Boerwar and Bluey,
    Possum and Bushfire, Psephos and the Ghostwhovotes-
    Be in their flowing cups freshly rememb’red.
    This story shall the good man teach his son;
    And Julia PowerFox shall ne’er go by,
    From this day to the ending of the blog,
    But we in it shall be remembered-
    We few, we happy few, we band of brothers/sisters;
    For he to-day that shares this thread with me
    Shall be my brother/sister; be s/he ne’er so vile (like I used to think Glen was!),
    This day shall gentle his condition;
    And bloggers in Australia now-a-bed
    Shall think themselves accurs’d they were not here,
    And hold their passwords cheap whiles any speaks
    That fought with us upon Saint Julia’s day.

  38. Victoria

    Whilst it is really hard to fault the superb argument of David that Mick Wilkinson knows ‘ Jack Sh*t’, actually I think I know a lot more than your average PBer.

    All through this election I have stated, accurately, that the polls are the closest they have been for many elections, that the TPP betting (ALP vs COAL for the win) is consistently less good at predicting results than the individual seat market is and finally, for ten days now have been saying that the most likely outcomes from my simulations (50% on fullest and latest seat polling & 50% from the average of the seats, where available, the marginal seats) have shown a minority coalition government the most likely of 24 outcomes with a 95% confidence interval.

    Now, apparently, for those who will only accept good news for the ALP as ‘Good Analysis’ this passes as ‘Jack Sh*t’, or ‘Poor Psephology’ (From PsephFloss) or ‘wishful thinking’ by most others.

    The funny thing is, the polls, seat polls and betting markets have all converged on the analyses I have been making consistently now for over a week.

    So, Victoria, don’t read a word I write, unless you were blessed with two eyes! 😉

  39. [About 300 of those “Abbott don’t risk it” posters showing him with the sweaty eyes looking like a serial killer.]

    They are the worst photos for election posters ever! He looks so shifty and distrustful in them.

  41. I wish people would understand that betting markets are prices based on movements of money and a lot of those movements are from mugs. That’s why gambling is a multi billion dollar industry in this country.

  44. I voted here in the Inner West Sydney earlier this morning and I can tell you that Labor will indeed have major problems retaining the seats they hold here. I’m going out on a limb here but based on alot of conversations I had and heard around the voting booths, the swing against Labor is going to be alot higher than what has been predicted. On a federal level, it was mainly about Asylum Seekers and the ousting of Kevin Rudd. But most didn’t really care who became prime minister or not, all they cared about was voting against the State Labor government who, as one guy put it quite bluntly,”They have f** ked up this State bigtime.”

  45. G’day Gusface,

    Voted early at Bateau Bay Public School where 4 BER classrooms are under construction, to replace 4 ‘portables’ which have been there for 14 years. School has over 1000 students. Had a chat to Labor HTV blokes. They were very chirpy. Voted Green/Lab in reps and Green in Senate, first time ever not Lab & Lab. Protested to Returning Officer about ‘Labour $100 million a day debt’ and ‘Water and Electricity Up’ posters which have no party ID, and are attached to fence and inside the polling place. He said he’d ring someone for advice. I haven’t been back to see whether they are still there.

    cheers,

    MD

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