Morgan SMS exit poll: 51-49 to Labor

I’m not ready to endorse the methodology being used here, but just out interest, let it be noted Morgan has produced an obviously premature SMS exit poll showing Labor on 38.5 per cent, the Coalition on 43 per cent and the Greens on 12 per cent, with Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred. Stay tuned this evening for live blogging and a CoverIt Live chat room featuring myself and other Crikey types.

At 1pm today a special sms Morgan ‘Exit’ Poll shows the primary vote is ALP 38.5% , L-NP 43%, Greens 12% and 6.5% Others and Independents. On a 2 Party Preferred basis this still translates to 51% ALP 49% L-NP as reported in the 7News Morgan Poll last night and this morning on Sunrise.

This 1pm update is based on 1,211 electors from The Roy Morgan Elector Panel who have texted their vote to the Morgan Poll once they had voted.

This is the first time that an sms vote on a controlled panel has been recorded through the election.

Because the original panel is controlled, and their previous voting intention and their vote at the last election is known it is possible to project from the sms ‘exit’ poll to an Australia-wide vote.

Gary Morgan says:

We are pleased with the response to this new sms ‘exit’ poll methodology.

Although this Morgan Poll uses sms technology, it is unlike typical sms voting systems that are open to all and therefore potentially open to interest groups ‘stacking’ the numbers. The sms Morgan ‘Exit’ Poll uses a controlled panel – The Roy Morgan Elector Panel.

UPDATE: Quick and dirty exit poll summary, with thanks to Scorpio in comments.

This all looks good so far. I like Possum’s comment.

KJBar RT @Pollytics Galaxy exit poll – ALP 52/48. All exit polls consistent. #ausvotes

SkyNewsAust Sky News exit poll 2PP LAB 51%, COA 49% – watch online here: http://bit.ly/ojmm3

Pollytics The Auspoll exit poll of 30 marginal seats going to Labor 51/49 simulates out as ~82 seats in Parliament #ausvotes

Pollytics The Auspoll shows only a half a percent swing on those 30 marginals #ausvotes

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

850 comments on “Morgan SMS exit poll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  4. Just voted at Ithaca Creek State School, Brisbane division. Huge changes since last election, thanks to BER.

    Single storey old classroom block where we used to vote is now double storey, with new classrooms and lots of peripheral development, including an exterior lift. Has also been fully developed underneath.

    Voted today in another new, very large, building that seems to be for undercover sports etc. Also several new well-equipped play areas, complete with shade sails, more drinking fountains etc. and new larger and better placed above-ground vegetable beds for children’s use. And that’s just what I could see as I walked into and out of the school.

    Labor HTVers were proud to confirm BER. Lib HTVer was also impressed. We all had a brief but pleasant conversation, which included a healthy amount of bi-partisan criticism of media, and the long-term value of winning something by merit rather than by manipulation/lies.

    Wonder how long before it is officially recognised that we people over 60 aren’t necessarily conservatives. All the men and women about my age that I came across were either carrying Labor HTVs or talking very positively about Labor’s achievements and I doubt if any of my 50-75yo friends have ever voted Liberal.

    Today was a positive experience, hope tonight is as well!

  6. Don’t now much about them – got a lot of respect for Read he is a sharp customer. I’d like to see him start winding us in because last time I looked he was laying us a fraction.

  7. Have just voted in Lindsay and hung around the Labor mob for a bit. My booth is very Liberal so can’t tell if there’s a big swing.

  8. Mick Wilkinson

    Happy to read informed opinion. It shouldn’t matter who you support. Unless it’s Collingwood.

    You seem to place emphasis on the betting markets in your summary. Do you feel, statistically, that you have weighted a little too much of the close calls to LNP in getting to a minority LNP government? I assume you are saying 74 LNP, 73 Labor (or 72 Labor, 1 Green), a net gain of 14/15 seats.

  9. My exuberant Liberal friends are all looking for Champagne tonight. I must say that they are showing more Hubris than I might have imagined. Have seen some late internals for them, no surprises really, we are in Queensland, after all. Needless to say, they were elated with the results.

    As mentioned earlier, my Labor buddies have had mixed reactions. Yes, I know it doesn’t fit with your paradigm that I have rusted on friends of many political creeds but I do. Deal with it. I know a couple of Greens & Family First candidates too.. but haven’t spoken with them lately.

    It might cheer you to know that my predictions about Brisbane (the only seat I dared to go beyond the numbers for) is a little tighter than I would have thought. It will be interesting to see if it translates today but Arch Bevis may be OK.. we’ll see… they are still only polls with MOEs. Still lots of undecideds..

  12. @ 87 victoria

    yes, mcewen. I posted after I voted in the previous blog but no one noticed me.
    Husband wetn shopping later and – no panadol. He also told me there were claw marks on the shelves around painkillers, but I said I wou;ldn’t post that!

  13. Mad Dog

    i noticed that as well as a few others

    On closer inspection they have in tiny writing the authorisation

    well at least the ones i saw

    the AEc dude was not aware if they were in breach

    i noticed a lot of people sneered back at the abbott poster

  14. An Ian Craig voice “Julia ridden for dear life by K Rudd puts the body in front a hunded to go”

    Another big agency has moved: Julia 1.45 into 1.40 / Monk out to 3.05

  19. [Don’t now much about them – got a lot of respect for Read he is a sharp customer. I’d like to see him start winding us in because last time I looked he was laying us a fraction.]
    Read sold IAS some time ago and are now owned by the same major owners as sportsbet (paddy power, the irish mob) but I suspect the same blokes are doing the odds for both.

  21. I voted in Denison, South Hobart like Kevin earlier although possibly a different booth.

    Two Green and one Wilkie with the HTVs, all quite cheery. Very few takers. The mood in the booth itself seemed more sombrely focussed than any time I can remember.

  23. Just finished four hours of Labor HTV cards and I can’t pick it – really felt like 50/50. My prediction two weeks ago was Labor 76 seats.

    But right now my prediction for tonight is deadlock – we won’t get a result. There are too many seats that will go to PVs and EVs. And the overall result is so close that those deadlocked seats will put the overall result in doubt. My prediction: deadlock tonight, followed by Labor minority government.

  28. @114 victoria

    Well, all three in my family voted Labor. Can’t do much more than that!
    I didn’t sleep last night. This is worse than the last election when we waited weeks for the result.

  30. This is where the late swing to Libs comes from, a “senior Labor source” whatever that means.

    [ senior Labor source said party tracking had shown signs of the beginning of a swing back to Labor at the start of the week. But it had begun to tank again since Wednesday and continued after the official advertising blackout, blunting the impact of Labor’s negative attack ads on Mr Abbott’s economic credibility.

    “The undecided vote has not fallen our way, it’s broken Abbott’s way,” said the source. “It’s come back a bit in Robertson, dipped in Dobell, and it’s very pessimistic in Greenway. But overall, it’s looking pretty bad.”]

  38. Centrebet still has ten QLD seats open for wagering.

    Blair : ALP – ALP hold
    Bonner: ALP – ALP hold
    Brisbane : ALP – ALP hold
    Dawson : LNP – ALP loss
    Flynn : ALP – ALP hold
    Forde : ALP – ALP hold
    Herbert : LNP – ALP loss
    Longman : ALP – ALP loss
    Moreton : ALP – ALP hold
    Petrie : ALP – ALP hold

    ALP lose Dawson, Herbert, Longman.

    Sky news gone berko – talking about tattooed soccer mums (Sarah Palin fans?) tearing up ALP HTV sheets in western Sydney – hope they have some footage for the news.

  39. BTW I was doing a booth in Sturt, but it is in the new area to the north of the former boundary, so I don’t have a good feeling on how that booth normally votes. I got one “Liberal” who said he couldn’t vote for Tony Abbott, but I also got two “Labor” voters who said they couldn’t vote for Labor after Rudd was dumped. I sure hope we lose Pyne, but who knows? At least Rick Sarre gave us a good campaign and a chance. He certainly forced Pyne to spend a lot of $.

  40. GusFace@ 100 good point re Spartans (sorry not to mention you, rua and others in Henry V ripoff but I tried to fit with Shakespeare’s lines): search 40 Inspirational speeches in 2 minutes on youtube for a pretty funny compilation (link looked too messy to post)

  45. [But it had begun to tank again since Wednesday and continued after the official advertising blackout, blunting the impact of Labor’s negative attack ads on Mr Abbott’s economic credibility.]

    Ads which Labor should have been running since the beginning of the campaign. I believe I said at the time they started airing that it was too little too late, and I’m not happy at all to be proven right.

  46. [Barnaby says Labor will win. Now I’m really worried…]
    Barnaby should stick to economics. NO wait! Barnaby should… what do we do with him?

  47. @ 133 victoria

    That’s right. 31 on the *third* count. She wouldn’t give in. And then I believe she was the absent voter when Abbott won leadership.

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