Morgan SMS exit poll: 51-49 to Labor

I’m not ready to endorse the methodology being used here, but just out interest, let it be noted Morgan has produced an obviously premature SMS exit poll showing Labor on 38.5 per cent, the Coalition on 43 per cent and the Greens on 12 per cent, with Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred. Stay tuned this evening for live blogging and a CoverIt Live chat room featuring myself and other Crikey types.

At 1pm today a special sms Morgan ‘Exit’ Poll shows the primary vote is ALP 38.5% , L-NP 43%, Greens 12% and 6.5% Others and Independents. On a 2 Party Preferred basis this still translates to 51% ALP 49% L-NP as reported in the 7News Morgan Poll last night and this morning on Sunrise.

This 1pm update is based on 1,211 electors from The Roy Morgan Elector Panel who have texted their vote to the Morgan Poll once they had voted.

This is the first time that an sms vote on a controlled panel has been recorded through the election.

Because the original panel is controlled, and their previous voting intention and their vote at the last election is known it is possible to project from the sms ‘exit’ poll to an Australia-wide vote.

Gary Morgan says:

We are pleased with the response to this new sms ‘exit’ poll methodology.

Although this Morgan Poll uses sms technology, it is unlike typical sms voting systems that are open to all and therefore potentially open to interest groups ‘stacking’ the numbers. The sms Morgan ‘Exit’ Poll uses a controlled panel – The Roy Morgan Elector Panel.

UPDATE: Quick and dirty exit poll summary, with thanks to Scorpio in comments.

This all looks good so far. I like Possum’s comment.

KJBar RT @Pollytics Galaxy exit poll – ALP 52/48. All exit polls consistent. #ausvotes

SkyNewsAust Sky News exit poll 2PP LAB 51%, COA 49% – watch online here:

Pollytics The Auspoll exit poll of 30 marginal seats going to Labor 51/49 simulates out as ~82 seats in Parliament #ausvotes

Pollytics The Auspoll shows only a half a percent swing on those 30 marginals #ausvotes

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

850 comments on “Morgan SMS exit poll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. getluv- agreed, but just pointing out the betters are betting against themselves

    Ozpol- there are actually 5 seats which were “redistributed” from Libs to ALP so if you want you can count them that way but then ALP starts on a shakier 83 rather than the 88 I have them on currently. The final result stays the same: ALP 72 seats on Betfair.

    You need to give ALP a 4% swing in rest of country to get 52:48 from 6% Qld and 4.5% NSW and -2.7% in Vic (and this would mean 75-71-4 win to ALP!)

  2. gus – on 9… essentially said that there would be a fight by the end of the night…. man speak for bring it on in my book.. I would pay to see that…..

  3. [the galaxy exit poll also confirms that boats weren’t a top ranking issue for voters.]

    Was it a marginals poll, or a nationwide one?

  4. al palster

    Excellent call on the Rockford -sadly we have none left 🙁 I must get some more.
    But I have a 99 Cofield from Rutherglen that should do the job.

  5. [the galaxy exit poll also confirms that boats weren’t a top ranking issue for voters.]

    Maybe they forgot to poll Queensland and Lindsay 😀

  6. If Julia and co get back, they’ll need to do something about Western Sydney, particularly the outskirts of Western Sydney, like redeveloping Nepean Hospital or building another train line out there.

  7. Definitely a sickness to the core of the ALP, the most incompetant government in the history of Australia, perhaps the world

    False modesty there, dovif. Or just a deep desire to beat Abbott in the Great Big Lie stakes?

    The winner – well documented (even by rusted-on hard-line Neocon Tories like John Stone; attested to be international documentation of Oz’s financial woes – as well as the “Bottom of the Harbour scandals in the year leading up to March 1983) – was Fraser-Howard 1980-83 …

    Or at least it was until the GFC. Iceland & Greece may now have beaten Fraser-Howard to the bottom of the barrel; though that will take some doing.

  8. [the galaxy exit poll also confirms that boats weren’t a top ranking issue for voters.]

    if thats true, and if ALP win, lets hope they knock this pathetic fear of ‘boats’ on the head once and for all

  9. [if lindsay is anywhere near that than Greenway is gone as well. on the flip side it bodes better for regional nsw labor seats and some they are trying to get like Paterson. (if the swing is only 2% across the board in nsw)]

    Silly statement Mike, these seats have a very broad demographic. Depends on booths.

  10. Socrates,

    I’m off to Beechworth in a few weeks to do a bit of wine tasting. I’ll follow that lead on the Cofield ( which I’ve never heard of)

  11. [if thats true, and if ALP win, lets hope they knock this pathetic fear of ‘boats’ on the head once and for all]

    hear, hear!

    stop the boatscare!

  12. [the galaxy exit poll also confirms that boats weren’t a top ranking issue for voters.]
    Truthy will be feeling gutted and abandoned about that. Lovely thought 🙂

  13. “Yesterday a poster said that the ACT lives like Lindfield but votes like Cessnock.
    Can anyone interpret for us foreigners outside NSW? ”

    Canberra city, has two federal electorates, and generally both are leafy, middle-class suburban, in terms of average incomes and lifestyles. It also is designed, throughstrict urban planning, such that there are *ghetto* districts, so while it does have its fair share of unemployed, homeless and welfare recipients and workingclass they are not concentrated, but scattered evenly all over the city.

    In short, Canberra is predominantly wealthy catholic Labor-right. Secondly, its a major University town with the Australian National University, so has a sizeable young loony-lefty-greeny population. Often laughed at, or satirised as the ‘Inner-City cafe-latte chardonnay sipping ‘roo savers”. Thirdly, its a major urban centre for rural regions in southern NSW and northern Victoria – people looking for work, education, services etc migrating to urban centres – find canberra is better than trying in Sydney or Melbourne… eg canberra’s major public tertiary teaching hospital, services all of south-eastern NSW…

    The main reason I see for their strong ALP safety in both seats, is partly 1) history – it was primarily settled in the 1950s and 60s by young under-30s Catholic labor workingclasses from Melbourne, and other capital cities – who stayed, raised families and grandchildren, and became community Elders of the blue-rinse set – and 2) the “knock-on” effect to the micro-economy of having a Liberal govt in federal power.

    The city has grown to a point where it does have a sizeable private sector, but the co-located with the national seat of govt,. means a Liberal govt tends to smash the local economy, in favour of outsourcing to the major capitals and mulitnationals …. so local and small businesses go broke etc etc. 1996 almost flattened the small-business sector, and University cut-backs also – restaurants closing, general stores, housing, commercial offices, supermarkets, hardware stores etc all felt the crunch of the “ripple” effect.

  14. al palster

    I have found there are a lot of good sparkling Shiraz’s out of Rutherglen. I wouldn’t say the Coffield would beat the Rockford, but quite a few are very good. Stanton and Killeen are excellent IMO.


    Pundits forecast tight ALP win
    August 21, 2010 – 5:44PM


    Labor strategist Bruce Hawker has forecast an ALP election victory by a margin of about four to five seats, but has admitted anything could happen as the votes are counted.

    Speaking on Sky News less than an hour before east coast polls were to close at 6pm (AEST) on Saturday, Mr Hawker was confident of a federal Labor win.

    “My guess is it will be in the four to five seat range, but it will be an absolute majority,” he said.

    “That’s my guess, and it is a guess, anything can happen as you know.”

  16. I doubt Greenway will fall. The demographics are quite different from Lindsay. Lindsay is largely white, with a lot of new housing developments away from the core area of Penrith. The southern part of Greenway, around Blacktown and Seven Hills, is very multicultural. I think “Stop The Boats” will appeal to some bigots in Lindsay, but will not have much impact in Greenway. I think Greenway may swing, certainly, but not enough to fall.

  17. Strangely enough I’ve got some Beechworth beer (Bridge Road) that I’ll probably crack out once we get some substantive numbers. That probably won’t be until about 8-9 I reckon.

  18. hahah exactly… but I would back a national in a bare fisted fight over a labor right wing hack without a knife! sorry….

  19. [arbib just needs to do an ali and barnyard will just collapse]

    After he goes red in the face and froths at the mouth, and covers Arbib in spittle.

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