I’m not ready to endorse the methodology being used here, but just out interest, let it be noted Morgan has produced an obviously premature SMS exit poll showing Labor on 38.5 per cent, the Coalition on 43 per cent and the Greens on 12 per cent, with Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred. Stay tuned this evening for live blogging and a CoverIt Live chat room featuring myself and other Crikey types.
At 1pm today a special sms Morgan ‘Exit’ Poll shows the primary vote is ALP 38.5% , L-NP 43%, Greens 12% and 6.5% Others and Independents. On a 2 Party Preferred basis this still translates to 51% ALP 49% L-NP as reported in the 7News Morgan Poll last night and this morning on Sunrise.
This 1pm update is based on 1,211 electors from The Roy Morgan Elector Panel who have texted their vote to the Morgan Poll once they had voted.
This is the first time that an sms vote on a controlled panel has been recorded through the election.
Because the original panel is controlled, and their previous voting intention and their vote at the last election is known it is possible to project from the sms ‘exit’ poll to an Australia-wide vote.
Gary Morgan says:
We are pleased with the response to this new sms ‘exit’ poll methodology.
Although this Morgan Poll uses sms technology, it is unlike typical sms voting systems that are open to all and therefore potentially open to interest groups ‘stacking’ the numbers. The sms Morgan ‘Exit’ Poll uses a controlled panel – The Roy Morgan Elector Panel.
UPDATE: Quick and dirty exit poll summary, with thanks to Scorpio in comments.
This all looks good so far. I like Possum’s comment.
KJBar RT @Pollytics Galaxy exit poll – ALP 52/48. All exit polls consistent. #ausvotes
SkyNewsAust Sky News exit poll 2PP LAB 51%, COA 49% – watch online here: http://bit.ly/ojmm3
Pollytics The Auspoll exit poll of 30 marginal seats going to Labor 51/49 simulates out as ~82 seats in Parliament #ausvotes
Pollytics The Auspoll shows only a half a percent swing on those 30 marginals #ausvotes
victoria…me? nope never met him, closest I got was in the gallery watching question time.
This is the level of intelligence of one of those who have been working so hard to determine who governs the people of this country. 😉
[And ABC2 has Iggle Piggle in the Night Garden boarding the Ninky Nonk. Bet he votes Green.]
http://twitter.com/samanthamaiden
getluv- agreed, but just pointing out the betters are betting against themselves
Ozpol- there are actually 5 seats which were “redistributed” from Libs to ALP so if you want you can count them that way but then ALP starts on a shakier 83 rather than the 88 I have them on currently. The final result stays the same: ALP 72 seats on Betfair.
You need to give ALP a 4% swing in rest of country to get 52:48 from 6% Qld and 4.5% NSW and -2.7% in Vic (and this would mean 75-71-4 win to ALP!)
the galaxy exit poll also confirms that boats weren’t a top ranking issue for voters.
David
Someone posted earlier in the day, that when he and wife went to vote, saw K Rudd. Can’t recall who it was.
gus – on 9… essentially said that there would be a fight by the end of the night…. man speak for bring it on in my book.. I would pay to see that…..
ABC talking to Simon Crean promoting Newspoll.
[the galaxy exit poll also confirms that boats weren’t a top ranking issue for voters.]
Was it a marginals poll, or a nationwide one?
al palster
Excellent call on the Rockford -sadly we have none left 🙁 I must get some more.
But I have a 99 Cofield from Rutherglen that should do the job.
Downer is a fat-head. Anything he says should be treated as misinformation.
@754: probably not nationwide but certainly in some seats/areas
[the galaxy exit poll also confirms that boats weren’t a top ranking issue for voters.]
Maybe they forgot to poll Queensland and Lindsay 😀
If Julia and co get back, they’ll need to do something about Western Sydney, particularly the outskirts of Western Sydney, like redeveloping Nepean Hospital or building another train line out there.
False modesty there, dovif. Or just a deep desire to beat Abbott in the Great Big Lie stakes?
The winner – well documented (even by rusted-on hard-line Neocon Tories like John Stone; attested to be international documentation of Oz’s financial woes – as well as the “Bottom of the Harbour scandals in the year leading up to March 1983) – was Fraser-Howard 1980-83 …
Or at least it was until the GFC. Iceland & Greece may now have beaten Fraser-Howard to the bottom of the barrel; though that will take some doing.
[the galaxy exit poll also confirms that boats weren’t a top ranking issue for voters.]
if thats true, and if ALP win, lets hope they knock this pathetic fear of ‘boats’ on the head once and for all
Just tuned into Sky, is that Kristina Keneally on their panel or just someone with her hair cut??
[if lindsay is anywhere near that than Greenway is gone as well. on the flip side it bodes better for regional nsw labor seats and some they are trying to get like Paterson. (if the swing is only 2% across the board in nsw)]
Silly statement Mike, these seats have a very broad demographic. Depends on booths.
Socrates,
I’m off to Beechworth in a few weeks to do a bit of wine tasting. I’ll follow that lead on the Cofield ( which I’ve never heard of)
[if thats true, and if ALP win, lets hope they knock this pathetic fear of ‘boats’ on the head once and for all]
hear, hear!
stop the boatscare!
anyone got the AEC link for their data undates for the seats etc
[the galaxy exit poll also confirms that boats weren’t a top ranking issue for voters.]
Truthy will be feeling gutted and abandoned about that. Lovely thought 🙂
“Yesterday a poster said that the ACT lives like Lindfield but votes like Cessnock.
Can anyone interpret for us foreigners outside NSW? ”
Canberra city, has two federal electorates, and generally both are leafy, middle-class suburban, in terms of average incomes and lifestyles. It also is designed, throughstrict urban planning, such that there are *ghetto* districts, so while it does have its fair share of unemployed, homeless and welfare recipients and workingclass they are not concentrated, but scattered evenly all over the city.
In short, Canberra is predominantly wealthy catholic Labor-right. Secondly, its a major University town with the Australian National University, so has a sizeable young loony-lefty-greeny population. Often laughed at, or satirised as the ‘Inner-City cafe-latte chardonnay sipping ‘roo savers”. Thirdly, its a major urban centre for rural regions in southern NSW and northern Victoria – people looking for work, education, services etc migrating to urban centres – find canberra is better than trying in Sydney or Melbourne… eg canberra’s major public tertiary teaching hospital, services all of south-eastern NSW…
The main reason I see for their strong ALP safety in both seats, is partly 1) history – it was primarily settled in the 1950s and 60s by young under-30s Catholic labor workingclasses from Melbourne, and other capital cities – who stayed, raised families and grandchildren, and became community Elders of the blue-rinse set – and 2) the “knock-on” effect to the micro-economy of having a Liberal govt in federal power.
The city has grown to a point where it does have a sizeable private sector, but the co-located with the national seat of govt,. means a Liberal govt tends to smash the local economy, in favour of outsourcing to the major capitals and mulitnationals …. so local and small businesses go broke etc etc. 1996 almost flattened the small-business sector, and University cut-backs also – restaurants closing, general stores, housing, commercial offices, supermarkets, hardware stores etc all felt the crunch of the “ripple” effect.
Mike
barnyard would tire after about 2 mins
arbib just needs to do an ali and barnyard will just collapse
itsthevibe: not sure.
NO *ghetto* districts I meant…
Briefly, Downer is Oz’s answer to the upper-crust Tory twit! Remember “The things that batter”?
10 mins till close in the east
😉
coalition out to $3.70 on betfair
[anyone got the AEC link for their data undates for the seats etc]
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/
al palster
I have found there are a lot of good sparkling Shiraz’s out of Rutherglen. I wouldn’t say the Coffield would beat the Rockford, but quite a few are very good. Stanton and Killeen are excellent IMO.
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/
Ok guys, I’ll be gone as soon as the coverage start on the ABC. See you on the other side.
May be the force with you, Jedi.
lab $1.20 betfair
cupidstunt
does that mean Labor wins?
Where is Truthy? Is he still banned? Maybe he has finally joined the navy.
Centrebet:
Labor: 1.29
Liberal: 3.25
id say highly likely as late bets going to labor
Dr Wiggins leaving for Indian take away collection. Nigella Choc Cake all made…what’s your party?
William,
Get Truthy unbanned if Labor Win 😀
Mith
Classic
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/pundits-forecast-tight-alp-win-20100821-139nw.html
I doubt Greenway will fall. The demographics are quite different from Lindsay. Lindsay is largely white, with a lot of new housing developments away from the core area of Penrith. The southern part of Greenway, around Blacktown and Seven Hills, is very multicultural. I think “Stop The Boats” will appeal to some bigots in Lindsay, but will not have much impact in Greenway. I think Greenway may swing, certainly, but not enough to fall.
Ch 9. Costello, Kroger and Joyce… plus Arbib… More turds floating there than in a public toilet
Strangely enough I’ve got some Beechworth beer (Bridge Road) that I’ll probably crack out once we get some substantive numbers. That probably won’t be until about 8-9 I reckon.
hahah exactly… but I would back a national in a bare fisted fight over a labor right wing hack without a knife! sorry….
Has the robopoll been unleashed?
BBB
That is the best quote of the day. Hear Hear!!
Socrates,
Thank you for that advice – shades of the late and great Len Evans. I’ll follow it.
[arbib just needs to do an ali and barnyard will just collapse]
After he goes red in the face and froths at the mouth, and covers Arbib in spittle.
Audio interruptions on Channel 7 anyone ?