I’m not ready to endorse the methodology being used here, but just out interest, let it be noted Morgan has produced an obviously premature SMS exit poll showing Labor on 38.5 per cent, the Coalition on 43 per cent and the Greens on 12 per cent, with Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred. Stay tuned this evening for live blogging and a CoverIt Live chat room featuring myself and other Crikey types.
At 1pm today a special sms Morgan ‘Exit’ Poll shows the primary vote is ALP 38.5% , L-NP 43%, Greens 12% and 6.5% Others and Independents. On a 2 Party Preferred basis this still translates to 51% ALP 49% L-NP as reported in the 7News Morgan Poll last night and this morning on Sunrise.
This 1pm update is based on 1,211 electors from The Roy Morgan Elector Panel who have texted their vote to the Morgan Poll once they had voted.
This is the first time that an sms vote on a controlled panel has been recorded through the election.
Because the original panel is controlled, and their previous voting intention and their vote at the last election is known it is possible to project from the sms ‘exit’ poll to an Australia-wide vote.
Gary Morgan says:
We are pleased with the response to this new sms ‘exit’ poll methodology.
Although this Morgan Poll uses sms technology, it is unlike typical sms voting systems that are open to all and therefore potentially open to interest groups ‘stacking’ the numbers. The sms Morgan ‘Exit’ Poll uses a controlled panel – The Roy Morgan Elector Panel.
UPDATE: Quick and dirty exit poll summary, with thanks to Scorpio in comments.
This all looks good so far. I like Possum’s comment.
KJBar RT @Pollytics Galaxy exit poll – ALP 52/48. All exit polls consistent. #ausvotes
SkyNewsAust Sky News exit poll 2PP LAB 51%, COA 49% – watch online here: http://bit.ly/ojmm3
Pollytics The Auspoll exit poll of 30 marginal seats going to Labor 51/49 simulates out as ~82 seats in Parliament #ausvotes
Pollytics The Auspoll shows only a half a percent swing on those 30 marginals #ausvotes
@Dr Bogan
[Bravo a tu hijo Apeman y viva El Salvador y El ALP]
German joke:
What do you call someone who speaks 3 languages? Trilingual
What do you call someone who speaks 2 languages? Bilingual
What do you call someone who speaks 1 language? English
unfortunately i am that englishman
ruawake, says he doesn’t beleive in exit polls!
Finns
nice duet 🙂 your sister has got some voice there!
If things get too nerve racking tonight I’ll watch the swannies instead.
Fingers crossed Julia will win the election but her Doggies are going down 😉
And just to top of the evening’s entertainment, the SBS series Great Australian Albums have an episode about the Crowded House album, Woodface, at 10 pm.
Just before I go, a big thanks to Crikey and William for this impressive blog and a big thank you to everyone here.
Whatever happens tonight, I have enjoyed being with you all (and I mean of all allegiances too) on this wild, wild ride.
cheers
Puff.
[so where was labors 36% from newspoll?]
Some of the “soft” Green vote will have drifted back to them I think.
Exit polls are nothing more than a marketing exercise for the TV networks. They have no basis.
PTMD
Ditto!
I’m praying that Maxine beats that gigantic tool John Alexander.
A couple of my mother’s work colleagues were bailed up by Alexander one day last week and rather rudely told they had to vote Liberal – the women weren’t impressed.
Morgan exit poll points to ALP just losing (51% TPP not enough in this election)
Sky exit poll points to ALP just winning
(remember the exit polls often overestimate ALP vote due to not including postals)
Betfair $1.31
BUT…. if you look at individual seats:
NSW ALP loses 6 (Bennelong, Gilmore, Lindsay, Macarthur, Macq, Robertson)
QLD ALP loses 7 (Bonn, Dawson, Dickson, Forde, Flynn, Herbert) with Petrie 50:50
Other ALP loses 5 (Melb, Corangamite, Hasluck, Swan and Sol)
but gains 2 (La trobe, McEwen)
That means Betfair is ALP to win $1.31 but has ALP only winning 72 seats by my calculations! Something fishy going on there…
Blues Buffett – I have friends in paris who didnt vote cause they “knew” that Jospin would get into the second round of the presidential poll, but of course the National Front’s Le Pen did. Then they didn’t have anyone to vote for so couldn’t vote for Chirac.
Vote early Vote often
This is my other computer that still has me as Barbara circa 2007, also post as vivi63 on laptop. HTV in Hindmarsh today all good, many only took ALP not Lib, many older ladies snuck one when lib hubby not looking.
can someone tell me why channel 9 just tried to call the election with 74 labor seat wins and 1 green? counting doesn’t start until 6 right? if this is all just exit poll driven wtf would they rally know??? costello basically just said let’s all go home labor will get there….
IAS no longer taking bets
Madcyril, it’s fair enough. Exits have been wrong at least as many times as they’ve been right. Still, 2 giving roughly the same figures should give at least a little confidence.
coalition $3.65 now on betfair
Cossie reckons there is 14 seats the ALP WILL lose.
Is it the ‘spoke too soon award’ or the Stephen Smith memorial “you just made me spit out my beer” award?
Costello saying 6% swing on the exit poll vs ALP in Qld, meaning lots of seats gone.
Gets “but it won’t be uniform” smackdown from the Sphere of Influence
Oscar
Definitely a sickness to the core of the ALP, the most incompetant government in the history of Australia, perhaps the world
ETS – stuffed up
Mining tax – stuffed
Insulation – record house fire in Australia this winter
Insulation – industry ruined
BER – government review shown waste of $2 to $6 billion dollar, hundreds of complains from school principles
Budget – stuffed
Grocery watch – stuffed
Alcopop – stuffed
Copenhagen – stuffed
Fuel watch – stuffed
Just another hired gun these days.
And coming from him. Didn’t he have the saying when in Labor that those “who rat oyou once, will rat on you again”.
@blues buffett/637,
Yes, QLD.
What time are Kerry O’Brien and Antony Green on the ABC?
I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again – there have been way, way, way too many polls in this campaign. It was at a point in 2004/7 when it was about right. Now, it’s going the way of the US, where people ignore the polls almost altogether because so many have a vested interest, the sampling is different etc.
Too many polls.
CentreBet:
1. AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY 1.32
2. COALITION 3.15
gloryconsequence
as I said earlier on. Soon there will be a poll on the polls
Let’s hope this isn’t a repeat of Florida on U.S Election Night in the year 2000 – I couldn’t go through a rerun of that. 😀
Laphroaig “Quarter Cask” Isle of Islay single malt. Marvellous wood a well as the peat. So smooth the pills even let me have a “wee dram”. I prefer aged Talisker’s magnificent peat; but aged, it’s hard to get.
[Definitely a sickness to the core of the ALP, the most incompetant government in the history of Australia, perhaps the world]
Exaggerate much?
Never having left myself in the position as I always like to vote asap after the polling station opens, what happens at 6.00pm when the polls close and there are still people in the queue, ie even outside the building?
DT84 544
I’m of the vintage that remembers ’72 with great affection. I agree that if Julia pulls it off I’ll rate this one right up there with “It’s Time”.
Cheers.
While I don’t believe we’ll win in a landslide or anything, if we do win comfortably, this election will ultimately be an indictment of the media.
A good Labor result will tell them loud and clear: we are not bogans! We are not stupid, nor are we illiterate. Nor are we easily led. We see through YOUR spin.
Next time — behave like a media should instead of trying to make yourselves the focus of the news!
gloryconsequence
You could easily get 15 polls in a day in the US election. It was horrible.
Except they all showed Obama winning. 😀
No, no hanging chads here, fortunately.
Laphroaig for me as well. Lovely stuff!
Last election from memory exit polls were pretty good – for the first time in a month my mood is one of cautious optimism.
evan14
speaking of US elections. I recall in 2004 Bush v Kerry. Exit Polls showed Bush winning, despite all previous polls pointing to Kerry win. Even the commentators from dare I say, Fox, were surprised and not sure whether to trust the exit polling. It turned out to be damn accurate, unfortunately.
In Britain, the BBC and ITV put out a combined exit poll for their election, and it turned out to be almost 100% accurate.
Labor now in to 1.31 on Centrebet. Money just following the exit polls I take it
there is no way there will be a uniform swing in QLD marginals… Flynne, dawson, leichardt will swing massive and they are gone but when each of them swing 10% it will mean another 3 semi marginals are going to be fine….
vic – exit polling on a whole pointed to Kerry winning if I recall?
@mod lib – the individual seats on betfair shouldn’t be taken seriously, simply because they don’t have high liquidity compared to the main poll. Betting agencies like Sportingbet don’t have that problem because they set the price.
[glory@668
Too many polls.]
Surely this is the wrong place to be saying that?
7 morgan exit poll for Lindsay 58% LNP 42% ALP
[I see the Libs have added a fifth point to their action contract – “help families”.]
Good one, scumbags. Hit the women and kids with SERFchoices.
I worked for the AEC at a polling booth in ’72 in a Labor town 🙂
A Huge night.
Lindsay 300 voters Lib 58 Lab 42
[
7 morgan exit poll for Lindsay 58% LNP 42% ALP
]
Yikes!
Just for the record, as a member of Morgan’s ‘controlled’ elector panel I responded to their 9am SMS at after voting this morning. Just needed an ‘A’ for ALP or ‘C’ for coalition etc. They got my mobile number about 2 weeks ago for this type of poll.
gloryconsequence.
I clearly recall exit polling favouring Bush. It is imprinted in my brain. I got so upset about it that I got sick.
OzPol
Unfortunately, I am limited by my budget, (it was on special). But the Glen is pretty nice to my taste. Well above average. Whatever the election result, it will do the job 😀
Also got a couple of shots of Jim Beam Small Batch left for the nightcap.