Morgan SMS exit poll: 51-49 to Labor

I’m not ready to endorse the methodology being used here, but just out interest, let it be noted Morgan has produced an obviously premature SMS exit poll showing Labor on 38.5 per cent, the Coalition on 43 per cent and the Greens on 12 per cent, with Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred. Stay tuned this evening for live blogging and a CoverIt Live chat room featuring myself and other Crikey types.

At 1pm today a special sms Morgan ‘Exit’ Poll shows the primary vote is ALP 38.5% , L-NP 43%, Greens 12% and 6.5% Others and Independents. On a 2 Party Preferred basis this still translates to 51% ALP 49% L-NP as reported in the 7News Morgan Poll last night and this morning on Sunrise.

This 1pm update is based on 1,211 electors from The Roy Morgan Elector Panel who have texted their vote to the Morgan Poll once they had voted.

This is the first time that an sms vote on a controlled panel has been recorded through the election.

Because the original panel is controlled, and their previous voting intention and their vote at the last election is known it is possible to project from the sms ‘exit’ poll to an Australia-wide vote.

Gary Morgan says:

We are pleased with the response to this new sms ‘exit’ poll methodology.

Although this Morgan Poll uses sms technology, it is unlike typical sms voting systems that are open to all and therefore potentially open to interest groups ‘stacking’ the numbers. The sms Morgan ‘Exit’ Poll uses a controlled panel – The Roy Morgan Elector Panel.

UPDATE: Quick and dirty exit poll summary, with thanks to Scorpio in comments.

This all looks good so far. I like Possum’s comment.

KJBar RT @Pollytics Galaxy exit poll – ALP 52/48. All exit polls consistent. #ausvotes

SkyNewsAust Sky News exit poll 2PP LAB 51%, COA 49% – watch online here: http://bit.ly/ojmm3

Pollytics The Auspoll exit poll of 30 marginal seats going to Labor 51/49 simulates out as ~82 seats in Parliament #ausvotes

Pollytics The Auspoll shows only a half a percent swing on those 30 marginals #ausvotes

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

850 comments on “Morgan SMS exit poll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  2. As I said yesterday, shades of 1998.

    Big swings for the challenger in their safe seats, small swings in the marginals for the challenger.

    Incumbent wins.

  4. #320 Patrick

    If Gillard loses I hope she speaks frankly and fearlessly about the sickness in the heart of the ALP.

    I hopes the fixes the problems in the ALP even if she wins.

  6. Pls don’t be so upbeat, everyone. You’re making me more nervous…
    Hi Wiggins, I’m McEwen too.

    I’m not upbeat, but I’m certainly feeling better than the Tory camp would be.

  10. dendy @5.07pm
    Jeez, The Australian gives me the shits. I work with broadband and know the topic well and I just could not believe that they could write such crap. Honestly, this cannot go on. Why should a main stream paper be able to get away with dishing out lies upon lies upon lies?

    Trying to influence WA, do you think?

  19. “the OO … has already started with so called experts saying cost will double, ignoring it came in 10% under budget in Tassie and householders will have to pay $3,000 to connect.”

    Of course they are talking crap, as usual and some people believe it because they keep repeating it.

    Foxtel did the initial cabling installations back in the late 1990’s for nothing. They put backbone cabling into heaps of apartment blocks with only a few initial subscribers .

  22. [Hi Wiggins, I’m McEwen too.]

    ‘Lo.
    I wonder how many people on here deliberately live in marginals? It’s not going to be half as much fun next time ’round.

  23. Hi

    I live in the electorate of Moreton in Qld. I went to Lib HTV man and asked him if he really believed the TA mantra. Boats Debt Bats whatever. He said no and said he didn’t like TA. He didn’t like a lot of the things he stands for. I said why the hell are you standing here for and he said fee enterprise. I talked about Workchoices and believe me if TA gets in it will be back.!!! Had no answer for fearmongring about boats, bats. blah. Also mentioned NBN. He said it was too expensive $3,000 each. I said don’t you realise all the social and economic benefitsit would bring and all he could say was thatit was too expensive. God i give up. At least while I was talking to him a lot of people went past and hopefully decided tovote labor or greens. Also said the copper would have to be worth a lot and he said belonged to Telstra. I thought it would belong to the people of Australia. Can anyone telll me the truth about the copper network. Thanks

  27. Just updated my Crikey subscription. I have moved from trial to inner circle. Is there an initiation ceremony or something?

    Going off to vote now, just before the polling station closes in Makin.

    see ya later all

  28. If those marginals are even remotely close, there are a few seats we do not lose. I know the swings are never uniform, but the Libs losing Dickson would have me on cloud nine for weeks!

    Sturt would be the icing on the proverbial cake (I know we need a big swing to us for that)

  29. [Have they mentioned what the state swings are in the Galaxy? The “swings too big in NSW and Queensland” sounds worrying.]

    Need to have a decent sample size in each state to really know. Ideally one would combine all exit polls state by state.

  31. [Sturt would be the icing on the proverbial cake (I know we need a big swing to us for that)]

    Not such a big swing actually

  32. dendy@586

    I remember when I first mistrusted The Australian. 1975 election, unemployment figures out. All Politics students from then on (including me) were taught this big instance of bias:

    “Unemployment up!” screamed the headline. Raw numbers up yes, seasonally udjusted down. Why let the facts etc…

  34. [Just updated my Crikey subscription. I have moved from trial to inner circle. Is there an initiation ceremony or something?]

    A night with Mr Onthemoon. 🙂

  38. [Slackboy

    That’s a freaking apt description of my home town.

    Accurate down to the minister competency descriptions too. Clearly you’re a fellow dic.]

    Not a DI&C. I’m now across the road crunching numbers. But know plenty in immigration and AG’s who’ve got nothing but scorn for fatty and gush praise for Ruddock despite his asylum seekers stance.

  40. Labor not only have to win at the ballot box, but have to also beat the media, particularly the murdoch reptiles in all their formats. Nowadays they have to also beat the AB f’ing C.

    Tonight Labor will do it again and beat all of the rotten sods. 🙂

  42. Just a sense check…………….

    With poll booths closing in QLD, NSW, ACT, VIC, TAS in just 40 minutes – has everyone on here in those states voted?????

  45. Herbert wouldn’t be such an unlikely pick up for Labor – Mooney has been Mayor of Townsville before, and the Libs don’t have Peter Lindsay’s personal vote to assist them this time.
    Plus – Rudd did a fair amount of campaigning there, so did Julia of course.

  46. [Just updated my Crikey subscription. I have moved from trial to inner circle. Is there an initiation ceremony or something?]

    You must offer Possum a job.

  50. This all looks good so far. I like Possum’s comment.

    [KJBar RT @Pollytics Galaxy exit poll – ALP 52/48. All exit polls consistent. #ausvotes]

    [ SkyNewsAust Sky News exit poll 2PP LAB 51%, COA 49% – watch online here: http://bit.ly/ojmm3 ]

    [Pollytics The Auspoll exit poll of 30 marginal seats going to Labor 51/49 simulates out as ~82 seats in Parliament #ausvotes ]

    [ Pollytics The Auspoll shows only a half a percent swing on those 30 marginals #ausvotes ]

    http://twitter.com/samanthamaiden

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