I’m not ready to endorse the methodology being used here, but just out interest, let it be noted Morgan has produced an obviously premature SMS exit poll showing Labor on 38.5 per cent, the Coalition on 43 per cent and the Greens on 12 per cent, with Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred. Stay tuned this evening for live blogging and a CoverIt Live chat room featuring myself and other Crikey types.
At 1pm today a special sms Morgan ‘Exit’ Poll shows the primary vote is ALP 38.5% , L-NP 43%, Greens 12% and 6.5% Others and Independents. On a 2 Party Preferred basis this still translates to 51% ALP 49% L-NP as reported in the 7News Morgan Poll last night and this morning on Sunrise.
This 1pm update is based on 1,211 electors from The Roy Morgan Elector Panel who have texted their vote to the Morgan Poll once they had voted.
This is the first time that an sms vote on a controlled panel has been recorded through the election.
Because the original panel is controlled, and their previous voting intention and their vote at the last election is known it is possible to project from the sms ‘exit’ poll to an Australia-wide vote.
Gary Morgan says:
We are pleased with the response to this new sms ‘exit’ poll methodology.
Although this Morgan Poll uses sms technology, it is unlike typical sms voting systems that are open to all and therefore potentially open to interest groups ‘stacking’ the numbers. The sms Morgan ‘Exit’ Poll uses a controlled panel – The Roy Morgan Elector Panel.
UPDATE: Quick and dirty exit poll summary, with thanks to Scorpio in comments.
This all looks good so far. I like Possum’s comment.
KJBar RT @Pollytics Galaxy exit poll – ALP 52/48. All exit polls consistent. #ausvotes
SkyNewsAust Sky News exit poll 2PP LAB 51%, COA 49% – watch online here: http://bit.ly/ojmm3
Pollytics The Auspoll exit poll of 30 marginal seats going to Labor 51/49 simulates out as ~82 seats in Parliament #ausvotes
Pollytics The Auspoll shows only a half a percent swing on those 30 marginals #ausvotes
What are these 40 marginals?
And barely any time for it to filter to the undecided
off to get some cognac
orange juice
champers
cognac
parts as per preferences
I hope this isn’t the robopoll :p
Mike Carlton called Labor by a short head in his SMH column this morning.
A more accurate call might be Gillard to win by a nose.
[Are those primaries in the marginals?]
Yep
exit poll in marginals 51 49
42% primary to ALP?
Abbott wont even come close if thats true.
Victoria
Thanks, I didn’t know that, but it is what you would expect. Given that, plus the fact that Oakshott, Windsor and Katter are all likely to win, and only one of those would vote for the coalition for certain, then the Libs still need to win 76 seats, and I think that will be tough.
Thanks ruawake… Very exciting! Must contain self… Remind self of inaccuracy of exit polls in other elections…
42, the meaning of life and a winning number. 😀
Er, why is a 45% Lib primary vote “great news” for Labor, guys? (Not being snide, I’m genuinely wondering.)
Re Melbourne: Assume the true result is ALP 40; Green 32; Libs 28. the Greens romp in on Lib preferences.
If 5% of ALP voters vote Liberal (with a preference the Labor), the you get ALP 35; Lib 33, Green 32 (they dont change) and Labor sh-ts it in.
[A more accurate call might be Gillard to win by a nose.]
That was precisely the headline prediction, and photo, in The Age front page today 🙂
435 – the Sky exit poll in 07 got the mood of those who voted on the day roughly right.
Idiot Gilbert looks like he is going to cry.
Sky news exit poll in marginals PV LAB 42% ; LIB/NAT 45% ; GRN 9%.
gives ALP 51% ; LIB/NAT 49% TPP.
(Truth test – GRN down to 9%, as expected)
Actually stating the marginals polled – comprehensive.
Weasel words – MoE to be considered.
are these figures coming through accurate, or guesswork. I don’t want to get ahead of myself
Itsthevibe, it’s also a primary of 42 for Labor and 9 Greens, and only a 0.5 swing to the Coaltion from 2007.
itsthevibe
Greens are polling 12%+ with 80% preferences to Labor. Family First are only 1-2%. If the Libs don’t get a high first vote, they will struggle after preferences.
They are on margins of 23.9%, 24.3% and 16.3% respectively.
NBN to save Labor for Marginal regions ?
Centrebet now $1.37/$2.95 Labor/LNP.
Victoria @392 – Disgruntled about having to choose is my guess.
Steve – Greens are always confident about getting a senator up in Qld. My guess is that it wont happen. This is unfortunate because I think Larissa Waters would make a good senator.
I suppose 51-49 is better than the other way round. Still, exit polls have margins of error.
I hadn’t seen that. 🙂
El Nino
I am in seat of Scullin. It is one of the safest Labor seats in the country. People generally think what is the point of voting. It is a foregone conclusion, would be my take on the voters attitude.
[I suppose 51-49 is better than the other way round. Still, exit polls have margins of error.]
Its just another bit of data showing Labor doing OK.
[ABC 24/7 reports exit poll swing against ALP (compared to recent poll average) is only 0.5%.]
I really believe the ABC 24 big noting wankers are on the turps already…there is more bullsh-t coming from that outfit than a paddock chocka with the beasts….when we get over the line I will be on the phone so fast to ABC TV to give them a serve, and looking forward to it
Yesterday a poster said that the ACT lives like Lindfield but votes like Cessnock.
Can anyone interpret for us foreigners outside NSW?
9% for the Greens in the marginals is actually a good result for the party.
Whatever happens we need a backstop by way of a GRN win over Humphries in the (ACT) Senate.
May there be much more of the same from the torys tonight 🙂
49% agree Abbott will hurt families and brfing back W/C
Issues
Health
Economy
Cost of Living
Abbott will bring back Workchoices 49%
confessions
is this a Sky Poll you are referring to?
Punna, they may be left leaning, but there’s also large percentages of private school attendance etc. I know a few people who were thinking of voting Green until they found out the Greens policies on private school funding.
Well, serve you hacks right for only paying 8c a day for the bloody ABC
Lindfield is rich, Cessnock is working class
Well off people who vote labor ??
Mr Rabbott its been fun (not really).
victoria: it’s the Sky exit poll
Looking at the top ten issues the dog whistle subjects did not rate in the top section.
victoria, I’m up the non-rusted-on end of the electorate which is about as close as we get to swingers in this part of the world.
“Abbott will bring back Workchoices 49%”
Masterstroke by JG
david, [wankers ] – in PB speak – it’s wangkers
itsthevibe
Apologies for my assumption of Greens 12%, whihc was basd on opinion polls, not marginal exit polls. Still the point is the same – the Libs won’t get many preferences.
This 51/49 exit poll actually simulates out as approx 82 Labor seats with a swing of only 0.5%
A 0.5% swing means ALP get 80 plus seats.
Broadband ranked 9th out of the 10 important issues.