Morgan SMS exit poll: 51-49 to Labor

I’m not ready to endorse the methodology being used here, but just out interest, let it be noted Morgan has produced an obviously premature SMS exit poll showing Labor on 38.5 per cent, the Coalition on 43 per cent and the Greens on 12 per cent, with Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred. Stay tuned this evening for live blogging and a CoverIt Live chat room featuring myself and other Crikey types.

At 1pm today a special sms Morgan ‘Exit’ Poll shows the primary vote is ALP 38.5% , L-NP 43%, Greens 12% and 6.5% Others and Independents. On a 2 Party Preferred basis this still translates to 51% ALP 49% L-NP as reported in the 7News Morgan Poll last night and this morning on Sunrise.

This 1pm update is based on 1,211 electors from The Roy Morgan Elector Panel who have texted their vote to the Morgan Poll once they had voted.

This is the first time that an sms vote on a controlled panel has been recorded through the election.

Because the original panel is controlled, and their previous voting intention and their vote at the last election is known it is possible to project from the sms ‘exit’ poll to an Australia-wide vote.

Gary Morgan says:

We are pleased with the response to this new sms ‘exit’ poll methodology.

Although this Morgan Poll uses sms technology, it is unlike typical sms voting systems that are open to all and therefore potentially open to interest groups ‘stacking’ the numbers. The sms Morgan ‘Exit’ Poll uses a controlled panel – The Roy Morgan Elector Panel.

UPDATE: Quick and dirty exit poll summary, with thanks to Scorpio in comments.

This all looks good so far. I like Possum’s comment.

KJBar RT @Pollytics Galaxy exit poll – ALP 52/48. All exit polls consistent. #ausvotes

SkyNewsAust Sky News exit poll 2PP LAB 51%, COA 49% – watch online here: http://bit.ly/ojmm3

Pollytics The Auspoll exit poll of 30 marginal seats going to Labor 51/49 simulates out as ~82 seats in Parliament #ausvotes

Pollytics The Auspoll shows only a half a percent swing on those 30 marginals #ausvotes

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

850 comments on “Morgan SMS exit poll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. 484 – yes it is, Victoria.

    478 Puma – Lindfield = North SHore ory heartland (not that they have heart)

    Cessnock = coal mining town

  5. [9% for the Greens in the marginals is actually a good result for the party.]

    Absolutely., Bearing in mind we’re talking about ALP-Lib marginal seats – they’ve had the kitchen sink thrown at them by the majors.

    bodes extremely well for the overall Green vote.

  7. Punna 477 Come to Canberra and we’ll show you. Actually, John Howard said ‘looks like Woollahra [leafy, suburban, wealthy looking], votes like Cessnock ‘ [working class, battlers].

  12. “really believe the ABC 24 big noting wankers are on the turps already…there is more bullsh-t coming from that outfit than a paddock chocka with the beasts….when we get over the line I will be on the phone so fast to ABC TV to give them a serve, and looking forward to it”

    David

    For what its worth you can complain through their website. I’ve already done it, and so have quite a few regulars here.

  17. I love how some of the anti-Greens are already like “haha 9%”. It’s the marginals. In these marginals topics like “how badly should we treat boat people” is the topic of substance. Greens are more likely to poll well in safe Labor seats not marginals.

  25. victoria, actually I was at Greensborough Primary School across the road from Greensborough Plaza so its not a standard vote-where-you-live booth.

  27. I’d rather be on this side (labor) of that exit poll going into the count than on the libs side.

    We’ll see though.

  28. First final results of the day are in and I’m afraid Jeff Kennett is going to be very happy – Hawthorn 155 defeated Freemantle 39. I hope Dockers supporters take it out on the Liberal Party.

  30. So at least two exit polls give Labor a majority. That’s good news. Especially given that one of them is a poll in the marginals.

  31. Everybody,

    Thanks for your updates today and through the campaign.

    And special thanks to William and Crikey for a political blog that provides compulsory reading.

    Long may it continue!

  32. [Health
    Economy
    Cost of Living
    Abbott will bring back Workchoices 49%]

    Health, big negative for libs.
    Economy, 50/50, labor did well during GFC, but debt a concern.
    Cost of living, neither side do well, though on plus for labor interest rates and petrol are down, lower than when libs in.
    Workchoices- Of course he would bring it back, he’s Abbott.

    But what about the boats, nothing on the boats, boats baots batos botas bstoa, no-one mentioned the boats, boats not a concern?????????

    Must be all inland seats. I heard Bishop say if she looks out her window she can see the boats arriving every day, merrily sailing in with thank you labor painted on their sails.

  35. My partner just got home from work (and voting) and tells me that one of his employees who is voting for the first time, had had the HTV process explained to her by her mother, who said to her, inter alia, “you’ll be approached by various people with how to vote cards – just say thank you politely and accept them all.” At this point her father said, “Rubbish – you’ll just take the Liberal one.”

    I thought the story was both funny and sad at the same time. Hopefully when she got into the booth, she made up her own mind.

  36. Quote from a letter written in 1930’s by Australian WW1 Field Marshall John Monash –

    “Mark my words, the future of Australia lies with the ballot box and an educated electorate”.

    He was being pressured to take over as a miltiary dictator during the great depression.

  39. Pity for labor with Melbourne Ports – it was 7.1% in 2007.

    Will be a big win if the greens take it tonight.

    The Greens don’t have a chance in Melbourne ports. Michael Danby will win it easily.

  40. [Broadband ranked 9th out of the 10 important issues.]

    If Labor win broadband will be the new Black in 2013. People will love it and those who are still waiting will be really envious of those who are connected. No opposition will be able to oppose it although the OO will no doubt start a NBN waste report as they did with the BER waste reports.
    The good news stories (lives saved through critical medical data accessed via NBN to remote clinic) will abound. 🙂

  42. Australian WW1 Field Marshall John Monash

    A most capable soldier deserving of much praise, but did he make Field Marshall.

    I thought Blamey in WW2 was our first and only Field Marshall ?

    Monash – a full general ??

  45. [267
    A Good Lurk
    Even a close win will see a re-invigorated Federal Labor Party, a Party which will truely “bring home the bacon” in its second term. If only we can get over the line tonight.]

    Having a close shave this time may well turn out to be Labor’s saving for the next election. Sharpen up their survival instinct.

    ••••

    [And despite the good campaign Abbott has had, I don’t believe the Liberals have learned the lessons of their defeat three years ago.
    PVO]

    There are very good reasons not to return a party who have only had one term in opposition after a long run in government. This is a far more important -ve for the Coalition than many here have factored in, IMO.

    ••••

    [337
    scott from melbourne
    i am saying this as a long time labor voter who voted greens today, i have already conditioned myself that vile scumbag will be pm, due to selfishness and incompetency]

    Get your head out of it. Rudd’s toxic personal working style is just as much to blame. Guy needs to take some serious lessons in anger management and ego control.

    ••••

    [417
    nico
    Labor will win because Abbott is a nutter.]

    Hate to reduce it to something so simple. But there is a lot of truth in that. (Though I would describe him as an unpleasant nutter. But same end result.)

    ••••

    [490
    BK
    Looking at the top ten issues the dog whistle subjects did not rate in the top section.]

    Now that is very good news. 🙂

    ••••

    I am pretty comfortable with the way things are going for Labor right now, and sticking to my prediction of a win (I called 81 seats).

    I would have put the champers on ice already, except it is a bottle of Glenfiddich 12 year old single malt. 😀

  46. Then I hate to rain on the parade, but the Sky marginals exit poll in 2007 overstated Labor’s vote by 1.5%…

    Quiet you.

  47. @463

    I’ve been watching him for the entire campaign deliver blow after blow to Julia. Now he says: “this (exit poll of 30 marginal seats) looks like all those undecided voters have actually broken for Labor”.

    I’d just like to add my congratulations to William for the site. It’s been a great source of accurate and pertinent information over the last few weeks.

    To all the commenters. It’s been very reassuring to see the good will displayed here, amidst the hurly burly of the election, even towards someone like Mick 🙂 Thankyou for your wonderful efforts. 95% of you guys and gals would be younger than me and you and my daughter instil hope for the future of Oz in an old refugee from the Whitlam ‘It’s Time’ days. If this win materialises, I believe it will be as big an occasion as ’72, given the forces ranged against us (you can’t really get any bigger than ’72).

    Julia is such a trooper. So, so proud of her.

    Cheers!

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