Morgan SMS exit poll: 51-49 to Labor

I’m not ready to endorse the methodology being used here, but just out interest, let it be noted Morgan has produced an obviously premature SMS exit poll showing Labor on 38.5 per cent, the Coalition on 43 per cent and the Greens on 12 per cent, with Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred. Stay tuned this evening for live blogging and a CoverIt Live chat room featuring myself and other Crikey types.

At 1pm today a special sms Morgan ‘Exit’ Poll shows the primary vote is ALP 38.5% , L-NP 43%, Greens 12% and 6.5% Others and Independents. On a 2 Party Preferred basis this still translates to 51% ALP 49% L-NP as reported in the 7News Morgan Poll last night and this morning on Sunrise.

This 1pm update is based on 1,211 electors from The Roy Morgan Elector Panel who have texted their vote to the Morgan Poll once they had voted.

This is the first time that an sms vote on a controlled panel has been recorded through the election.

Because the original panel is controlled, and their previous voting intention and their vote at the last election is known it is possible to project from the sms ‘exit’ poll to an Australia-wide vote.

Gary Morgan says:

We are pleased with the response to this new sms ‘exit’ poll methodology.

Although this Morgan Poll uses sms technology, it is unlike typical sms voting systems that are open to all and therefore potentially open to interest groups ‘stacking’ the numbers. The sms Morgan ‘Exit’ Poll uses a controlled panel – The Roy Morgan Elector Panel.

UPDATE: Quick and dirty exit poll summary, with thanks to Scorpio in comments.

This all looks good so far. I like Possum’s comment.

KJBar RT @Pollytics Galaxy exit poll – ALP 52/48. All exit polls consistent. #ausvotes

SkyNewsAust Sky News exit poll 2PP LAB 51%, COA 49% – watch online here: http://bit.ly/ojmm3

Pollytics The Auspoll exit poll of 30 marginal seats going to Labor 51/49 simulates out as ~82 seats in Parliament #ausvotes

Pollytics The Auspoll shows only a half a percent swing on those 30 marginals #ausvotes

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

850 comments on “Morgan SMS exit poll: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 9 of 17
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  2. [If they’re that interested – or that well connected – surely they’d have been posted here before?]

    Oscar,

    the whole country is full of rumours and whispers today.

  4. ruawake

    you are so right. Booth workers aren’t privy to peoples’ voting intentions. In fact, I find that voters like to keep their voting intention to themselves.

  6. El Nino @ 379 “greens appear quitely confident of grabbing ACT senate seat”
    I heard that from an ALP guy on my booth today.

    Me too, here in Canberra. I know they have been saying it for years, election after election – but the Greens have been increasing their Senate vote every election too. Maybe this will be the one where their vote finally tips over the quota, and bumps that &*^%$ Humphries off?

    I can dream, can’t I?

  10. The vibe when I voted this morning in McEwan was that not many people were taking HTVs because it was cold & we all wanted to keep our hands in our pockets.
    & the sausage sizzle was not ready when we came out the other side…

  11. Inside information says Labor will lose….oh hang on……no, sorry a slight win. Hang on more insider info – nope, Labor has definitely lost – whoa hang on, got a call from a Labor mate in Qld and he says everything’s alright…..oops, no sorry got that wrong – it’s looking really bad for Labor in Qld. Bennelong will remain Labor – uh oh, just got some some insider info – it’s a goner to the Libs…..

    This has been Pollbludger all day – ups and downs, like a bloody rollercoaster!.

    If you’re sure of a Labor win, let me know why – and no “gut instinct” nonsense.

  12. PVO running th eline on Sy, asking whether this “too close to call” meme is an ALP tactic to stop a protest vote.

    Meanwhile, the Taiwanese give the animated treatment to the Australian election. Watch it, it’s brilliant.

    http://bit.ly/azsMWn

  17. A new candidate would have been found and contested the poll today – no bye election…. I doubt they would lose it at 10%+

  18. [I’m hoping as much as anyone else that its overplayed, I’m in Melbourne and have close links with the party down here. The information is very current, hopefully the accuracy is not.]

    Let’s face it — when the difference can be a handful of votes in each NOBODY has any inside info.

  19. [Jeez – why would it take him so long? Is he taking a two hour coffe break or something?]

    Antony is suffering from self doubt. He normally calls it at 7:30pm. But Red Kerry wouldnt budge.

    ABC24 just reported that the swing at the marginals is only 0.5%

  22. Labor voters in Melbourne should have voted Liberal so that they finish ahead of Greens…. and preference Labor just in case

  24. I gave my first preference on my senate vote to the greens in the hope they make the quota. Garry Humphries is a leech on Canberra’s backside.

  25. My sources tell me that booths will close in 1.5 hours in the east. Apparently booths in SA and WA will close later. In fact there is talk about booths closing 3.5 hours later in WA.

    Will keep you guys informed if I get more intel.

  27. ABC 24/7 reports exit poll swing against ALP (compared to recent poll average) is only 0.5%.

    Phoney *might* get home: but chances are he’s going to fall short.

    Coaltion definitely up against it to win today: Gillard hanging on is the greater chance.

  33. Luke in Qld

    I am not sure! But my prediction of a Labor minority govt (win by default?) is based on two things:
    – first see Poss’s monte carlo simulation of the latest polls average:
    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2010/08/21/election-day-mega-simulation/

    – second, when you look at the numbers, it is actually quite hard for the Libs to get to a majority in their own right, because of the 3 independents. Add a possible Green in Melbourne Ports and, although Labor will lose seats, it is not clear that they will lose enough for the Libs to form a government. I can’t imagine a Green member for Melbourne Ports will support a Tony “Climate Change is Crap” Abbott government.

  39. [ABC 24/7 reports exit poll swing against ALP (compared to recent poll average) is only 0.5%.]

    What the hell is that supposed to mean? What recent poll average?

  42. Socrates

    Seat of Melbourne Greens candidate Adam Bandt has already confirmed that if he wins this seat, he will support the Labor Govt. if needed.

  48. I’ll put my bib in – if Julia loses today, they ought to keep her on because she has the backing of the current caucus and is a negotiator. There is plenty of time before the next election to find a strong leader with a good narrative. She’s a good administrator and would make a good caretaker.
    I atill hope she wins – we win.

  49. mickeyf

    Trying to keep hope and options open, bad news is just speculation at this stage. Plus seeing the kindest person on this blog, fire up made me laugh. I needed it.

    Cheers

  50. has anyone heard of the source of the exit polls from this bloke on abc24 saying that marginal swing was only .5 % away from Labor ?

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