Morgan SMS exit poll: 51-49 to Labor

I’m not ready to endorse the methodology being used here, but just out interest, let it be noted Morgan has produced an obviously premature SMS exit poll showing Labor on 38.5 per cent, the Coalition on 43 per cent and the Greens on 12 per cent, with Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred. Stay tuned this evening for live blogging and a CoverIt Live chat room featuring myself and other Crikey types.

At 1pm today a special sms Morgan ‘Exit’ Poll shows the primary vote is ALP 38.5% , L-NP 43%, Greens 12% and 6.5% Others and Independents. On a 2 Party Preferred basis this still translates to 51% ALP 49% L-NP as reported in the 7News Morgan Poll last night and this morning on Sunrise.

This 1pm update is based on 1,211 electors from The Roy Morgan Elector Panel who have texted their vote to the Morgan Poll once they had voted.

This is the first time that an sms vote on a controlled panel has been recorded through the election.

Because the original panel is controlled, and their previous voting intention and their vote at the last election is known it is possible to project from the sms ‘exit’ poll to an Australia-wide vote.

Gary Morgan says:

We are pleased with the response to this new sms ‘exit’ poll methodology.

Although this Morgan Poll uses sms technology, it is unlike typical sms voting systems that are open to all and therefore potentially open to interest groups ‘stacking’ the numbers. The sms Morgan ‘Exit’ Poll uses a controlled panel – The Roy Morgan Elector Panel.

UPDATE: Quick and dirty exit poll summary, with thanks to Scorpio in comments.

This all looks good so far. I like Possum’s comment.

KJBar RT @Pollytics Galaxy exit poll – ALP 52/48. All exit polls consistent. #ausvotes

SkyNewsAust Sky News exit poll 2PP LAB 51%, COA 49% – watch online here: http://bit.ly/ojmm3

Pollytics The Auspoll exit poll of 30 marginal seats going to Labor 51/49 simulates out as ~82 seats in Parliament #ausvotes

Pollytics The Auspoll shows only a half a percent swing on those 30 marginals #ausvotes

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

850 comments on “Morgan SMS exit poll: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 8 of 17
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  1. All the pessimism is rather humorous. Those predicting anything other than an ALP win are detached from reality..

    Pray tell where you acquired that crystal ball of yours.

  3. Why is ABC24 keeps repeating the same old news reel. It should hosting panels of discussion and analysis. If it keeps this up, it will never challenge Slynews.

  4. Just got back from the Greensborough end of Scullin. No “mood for change” here. Lots of disgruntlement though. One small observation is that I reckon there are more votes for Greens these days coming from non-anglosaxon ethnic minorities. Used to be more for ALP.

  5. [ Privy to a bit of inside info…

    In other words, I am makin’ stuff up. ]
    I have inside info on Tony Abbott’s Psych Report 😀

  7. @The Finnegans 351

    The only thing ABC24 is likely to challenge Sly News on is which station can be less objective.

    Funnily enough, on this measure I think ABC24 is ahead.

  8. can u honestyly say mysay that abbot should even be in a postiotion to be pm let alone parliament let alone
    a council

  9. There is no inside info that is not two days old, anyone who says they have some is guessing or being tols something by someone who is guessing.

  10. Why is ABC24 keeps repeating the same old news reel. It should hosting panels of discussion and analysis. If it keeps this up, it will never challenge Slynews.

    Well Finns, using the high standards that the ABC sets for judging others, ABC24 is a dismal failure. They make Sky look very good. Not that I can stand much of Sky mind you.

  13. blue / green thanks in other word p off lol

    gee not usuall for me to use this language
    there was aggresive young hvc person today where i was he was very young.
    liberal not 18 i realy felt intimidted by him

  14. ruawake

    I presume the partis don’t bother doing any more polling of their own once the two day mark is rached, since there is no opportunity to target any more advertising or mail outs?

  15. can u honestyly say mysay that abbot should even be in a postiotion to be pm let alone parliament let alone
    a council

    scott – are you pissed already ?

  16. All of this shows what a fool Rudd is. And still is. He has to get out of politics for good, win, lose or draw. Leaving the bulk of the ABC Board in place – appointing the likes of Costello to the Future Fund and Nelson, Vanstone, Fisher et al to govt posts. Keeping most public service heads in place. This dismal political judgment on Rudd’s behalf is why it it even close now.

    Then add his stupidly selfish decision to stay in Parliament after he lost the leadership shows even more what a dismal politician he is. Had he bowed out the day he lost (or after he had a few days to think about it), all of that negative junk in the early weeks would not have happened. I will never forgive Rudd – a selfish goon.

  17. I’ve been on the phone to all my contacts Labor and Liberal and they are all telling me exactly the same thing. This is the good oil from the horses mouths. This is as good as it gets. I’ll let you all in on the secret;

    They are telling me that the polls haven’t closed and there hasn’t been any counting yet and that anyone who says they know what the result will be is a dickhead. 😛

  20. well i am off to hine in the bedroom now get a take away, and glossy mag.

    and when we are in front just yell you can come out now.

  21. I’m hoping as much as anyone else that its overplayed, I’m in Melbourne and have close links with the party down here. The information is very current, hopefully the accuracy is not.

  24. [They are telling me that the polls haven’t closed and there hasn’t been any counting yet and that anyone who says they know what the result will be is a dickhead. ]

    Diog, let me repeat. you know NOTHING but say PLENTY 👿

  25. well off to hind.

    o mickey if you had read this site all week you be surpirsed at how many insiders are on this poll that actuly know things that are very positive

  26. [blue / green thanks in other word p off lol

    gee not usuall for me to use this language
    there was aggresive young hvc person today where i was he was very young.
    liberal not 18 i realy felt intimidted by him]

    My say,

    What I don’t like about this site is that as soon as some new people come on this site and say something unfavorable about the ALP they get called a Liberal troll.

    There are plenty of labor ‘loyalists’ here. There should be no reason why liberal loyalists cant express themselves here either.

  28. greens appear quitely confident of grabbing ACT senate seat, Abbotts proposed PS cuts must have bit.

    Booth workers said looks better than 2007 when they fell 2,000 votes short.

    I think they will fall short again, but would be goods if they didn’t.

    green straight into the senate would help labor legislation until new senate in July 2011 and would also impede any Abbott madness if he got in.

  33. Here’s some outside info: if the national 2PP stays 51-49 chances are the larger portion of ’50/50′ seats will fall to Labor.

  34. BBB, yes and if we want to talk stupidity and selfishness I raise your Kevin Rudd and give you Bob Brown (liberals for forests party).

  36. [Funny how there are so many “first time posters” popping up today!]

    Its election day. Of course there are new posters.

    Its like when people become temporarily interested in league on state of origin night.

  37. [how do u know that jen]

    Scott you need a sense of humour here. I was saying that with the same gravitas as those Sky twerps were saying it is a Lib win!

  38. BTW: Re 312, Barnaby & the Surat basin, Power Without Glory: Coal Gas: The fire in our food bowl is the cover story of today’s CM’s QWeekend There’s an allied story Organic farmers fear gas threat to Dalby property + some links on the CM’s web site.

    Mind you, those leases are old – many from the 1920s & more from the Bjelke Petersen era. They’ve been the (It’ll never happen) elephant in the room for decades.

    Don’t think it will force either Groom’s or Maranoa’s incumbents to preferences this election, though; but might affect LNP Senate figures.

  40. Itep

    [How many people who say they have inside information are just making it up?]

    If we excluded stuff people made up then there would be very few posts 😉

  41. Guys, I’m sorry if I annoyed you all with the post, that wasn’t the intention.

    I’ve had information given to me, hopefully its underplaying our vote. On the plus side, my 3 year old son is sitting here watching ‘ Finding Nemo” without a care in the world.

    If only he knew….

  42. Mumble is on Sky – very guarded in his opinions.

    Points out that even the latest polls date back to last Thursday – who knows what has impacted since.

  44. Well Finns, using the high standards that the ABC sets for judging others

    Dave, what high standards?

    Finns – probably a rhetorical question by your good self, but –

    eg referring to BER with under 3% complaint rate as being a failure, riddled with rorts etc – you get my drift. If 97% success rate is not a high enough standard for The AB f’ing C then their own efforts are even worse – IMO anyway.

  47. better better best

    Obviously we live in parallel universes and only the blogs cross over. How exactly would a by-election or a lost sitting member and possible lost seat have helped Labor in a contest this close?

  49. @blue_green 383

    Fair enough – but how come so many of them have the “inside dope” about the election result?

    If they’re that interested – or that well connected – surely they’d have been posted here before?

  50. Finnegans @ 351

    News 24 is so bad that they continue to run the ?footlines of past news even while they are running the update to it. Makes for very odd viewing.

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