Amid talk of Labor internal polling showing the situation for them souring in New South Wales, The Australian tells us a Newspoll survey conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday has the parties locked together on 50-50, after Labor led 52-48 at the poll conducted over the weekend. It appears Newspoll surveyed 800 people on both evenings and will do so again tonight, producing a 2500-sample poll that will be published in the Weekend Australian. More to follow …
UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes reports Galaxy has Labor 52-48 ahead. Miranda Devine of the Sydney Morning Herald tweets that the Coalition primary vote in Newspoll is up three points, which means 44 per cent.
UPDATE 2: Most excellent comments contributor Lukas relates the Galaxy primary votes are 38 per cent Labor, 41 per cent Coalition and 14 per cent Greens.
UPDATE 3: Herald Sun report on Galaxy here. The sample was 1200, bigger than the Galaxy norm. The report informs us that 38 per cent of voters in New South Wales and Queensland “say they are less likely to vote Labor because of toxic state ALP governments”.
Australia at the cross roads. We can expect a fresh election within 18 months. High inflation and Union unrest if Abbott is elected or the Greens hold balance of power.
@644
I disagree, national polls are very indicative of results in my opinion.
Swings and roundabouts in terms of seats, but national polls give a good idea of the end result in terms of seats.
To Speak of Pebbles@648
A Full Galaxy 🙂
[Although it raises the question: which is trusted more? A Galaxy or half a Newspoll?]
Depends on the party that one supports.
I would think the lowest Labor’s 2PP could go is 37% in this election. I think if Gillard/Greens are stable over the next 3 years, the Coalition will be in big trouble. If I was Labor I would implement an ‘effective’ ETS as soon as possible in this term of office to avoid any damage in 2013.
I also think Labor should be looking at extending the timeline between federal elections, from 3 to 4 years. Policies that are designed for the medium and long terms are always put on the backburner.
half a newspoll done in rooty hill lol
Work early tomorrow morning (and Saturday!) – must get some sleep to function!
EDIT: I meant Primary vote.
Poll Bludger ought to engage the services of a (volunteer) professional therapist.
No 655
I detest 4 year terms. They breed complacency and neglect.
[A Full Galaxy]
That’s my thought too.
Galaxy, in itself is already preferred by political analysts. However, to use an analogy, compare Galaxy with a pie and Newspoll with a hot dog. Even if you preferred hot dogs to pies, you’d still rather a whole pie for lunch than half a hot dog.
OK, not the best analogy. Somebody else come up with something better…
deflationite Some people think that reading tea leaves and watching Crocodile;’s feed is telling. The fact is you cannot apply a national poll to the pendulum. It is not one swinging ball but 150 swinging balls each one resonating at a different pitch.
State polls and marginal polls allo you to better recaibrate the poll. Again unless you know the extent of undecided the poll is not complete.
Good point re Cops stunt:
Although conspiracies are frowned upon I am with Bushfire Bill. The Newspoll release of incomplete poll results is there to rally the conservative troops and try to build a band wagon effect. I believe the much shouted and advocated “narrowing” may have shaved half a percent or more off labor in 2007. The saturday newspoll will be closer to the mark but ALP TPP may end up 51.5 rather than 52.5.
Also a bit uneasy about the amount of lib ads on line
Alias
it does
William is his name i think
😉
GP,
If you hate four year terms then you really should get rid of the republican elephant.
[Depends on the party that one supports.]
If you were deciding which party to wager your money on. Regardless of your political persuasion, you are betting serious dough and you want to bet on the party you think will win.
whats the difference between tony abbott and a bucket of shit?
the bucket.
[I detest 4 year terms. They breed complacency and neglect.]
GP, no need to worry. The way that people are posting the next Government, which ever party wins, won’t last 18 months.
[ Poll Bludger ought to engage the services of a (volunteer) professional therapist.
]
I’ll second that.
Oh…and also, I’ll have a half.
@GP – especially when a Bush at the helm.
Frank Calabrese@663
And I thought it was against the NSW Public Service Act for Public Servants to be used for Party Political purposes.
TSOP
sloppy would eat both and then go:
” what pie,what hot dog look there is a boat that spends labor waste dollars’\”
True
gough1, I am hoping the tories are trying to create a bandwagon effect. It means they’re behind.
As I said before, the ALP is trying to convince us the Coalition might win.
No word from the Coalition but if it’s cheerleaders are anything to go by, they are trying to generate momentum.
One of those is a tactic used by a party clearly in front, one is used by one behind. Guess which one is which.
[ And I thought it was against the NSW Public Service Act for Public Servants to be used for Party Political purposes.
]
TRUE
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/cruel-horrible-mp-apologises/story-fn59niix-1225907501069
Annabelle mentioned a gaffe by ALP candidate in Longman which I think is what this Oz article is referring to (candidate rebuffing a townhall question on Health services for a disabled kid by asking: “Why did you wait 2yrs to get help”. Ouch! Booed apparently.
Prob not enough to switch Longman to a loss but pretty stupid campaigning! Maybe he needs to get more sleep. Could Roy be the stunning result on Sat?
DAW,
I think the pendulum works and the swings and roundabaouts of individual seat results hold true for most elections.
Only time it might be a factor is in a race that it very close from the start, within 3 or 4 seats.
Otherwise the trend is your friend.
Centrebet has the following implied probabilities right now (1.15ish aest):
Labor seats losing from their original 83
66% chance or better (2/3) [8 total]: Bennelong, Lindsay, Macquarie, Robertson, Dawson, Flynn, Leichhardt & Melbourne
66% – 55% (2/3 – 11/20): Hasluck
55% – 45% (11/20 – 9/20): Solomon
45% – 33% (9/20 – 1/3) [4 total]: Petrie, Forde, Bonner, Corangamite
Liberal seats going:
66% chance or better (2/3): McEwan
66% – 55% (2/3 – 11/20): –
55% – 45% (11/20 – 9/20): Latrobe
45% – 33% (9/20 – 1/3): –
Only Solomon and Latrobe are really in the 1.80 / 1.90 coin toss zone now, which has moved a lot from mid week.
Peter Young@675
Well the Libs are in deep doo doo.
TSOP, that i exactly what Shanahans purpose for releasing a partly finished poll is. the man has oodles of form.
Galaxy is simply a better fit with the campaign. So I trust it.
Also, Nespoll is getting 3 bights at the “most accurate” cherry. The “half” poll, the “final” poll, or the “composite” poll… whichever fits best.
[TSOP
sloppy would eat both and then go:
” what pie,what hot dog look there is a boat that spends labor waste dollars’\”
True]
At the “costings” announcement the other day.
ROBB: Our costings are all in order, if you’ll just look at this pie chart I have prep… Joe, where’s the pie chart?
HOCKEY: (with full mouth) I dunno. Some unionists came in and took it.
ROBB: Bloody unionists! Scumbags. I swear in my day… (10 minutes of unhinged old man ranting)
OO are ramping up the BS Meter:
[I am surprised William you have not addressed this issue]
Not sure why you would be – no one ever addresses anything you consider an issue.
The West Australian reports that as well as showing Labor losing seven seats in NSW and six in Queensland, that much-touted internal polling also shows two gains in Victoria. And I have a sneaking suspicion that the the seven seats in NSW is derived by extrapolating a swing that is concentrated in Sydney marginals, which are clearly very ugly for the ALP, across the entire state. This would chalk up a few regional losses they probably won’t actually suffer – i.e. Eden-Monaro and Page – though conversely, it may indicate they’re in trouble in Greenway as well as Lindsay and Bennelong (which I’m beginning to regret tipping for Labor, although they remain the official predictions I ask to be judged against).
As i said Frank, most copies of the Oz sit on reception room tables and are ignore in offices across the country.
[ Australia at the cross roads. We can expect a fresh election within 18 months. High inflation and Union unrest if Abbott is elected or the Greens hold balance of power. ]
“or” I think you mean the greens WILL hold the balance of power so most of the rabid rabbotts agenda that requires senate approval will not get past unless it is very constructive. My prognosis is the rabid rabbott will go feral => will require myxomatosis or the calicivirus 😀
If the Oz was made in 2-ply it would sell a lot more copies.
William
[though conversely, it may indicate they’re in trouble in Greenway as well as Lindsay and Bennelong (which I’m beginning to regret tipping for Labor, although they remain the official predictions I ask to be judged against).]
you liberal plant you
😉
about 6 months of my offices untouched Australians were used to cover the bottom of my garden beds to supress weeds, and then they compost with the lucerne and compost i add on top. a very fitting end.
William, looks like the Adelaide Advertiser is (unsurprisingly) backing Gillard
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/opinion/editorial-vote-for-a-call-to-action/story-e6freabl-1225907483591
[If the Oz was made in 2-ply it would sell a lot more copies.]
It applies more than it takes off
🙁
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Do_you_know_where_your_children_are
It’s 1:30am, do you know where your Tone is?
middle man@685
But it is used as gospel by Their ABC and vaarious Shock Jocks and TV Stations to set the news agenda.
Scarp, anything can happen in 18/36 months – the three yrs since 2007 have been the most wackaloon period in Ozpollytics that I can remember!
Gilliard will prob just get over the line because it is Abbott (fanciful, but if you cut Tone and pasted Howie/Costello/Turnbull and the Libs would win on Sat). She & the ALP better appreciate that this is why they will get over the line (as opposed to some kind of vindication)… a good analogy is Howie over Latham in 2004: what they gonna do? If more of the same, better pray its Abbott/Hockey or some other loser again next time – coz anyone remotely credible and they’ll lose big. Once Howie went workchoices and ALP fronted Rudd (ie someone credible relative to Crean/Latham) he was irretrievably toast.
Which party will William be voting for on Saturday?
Imagine how boring the last day of the campaign would have been BUT for the Newspoll 50:50 half poll.
That’s entertainment folks…….
and that is a weird weird phenomonem Frank.
Gus,
I dips me lid, very funny!
GP, i’d probably say thats none of your or anyone’s business but Williams. Learn some manners.
TSOP
The republican playbook swears by the ‘momentum’ method and redefining the contestants via a compliant media into winners and losers; Ie Vietnam Hero Kerry is a flip flopper and ’embellisher’ while Viet snoozer Bush is decisive and a ‘war president’.
Even the toe cutters of the labor right are just pussies compared to the combined nastiness of the ‘entitled right’.
Murdoch. Miners and minions are calling the tune.
The only benefit from We are behind strategy in this election is in clawing back primary green votes form disaffected greens. Its the 2 -3 percent totally unengaged that the right is working on with “heroic” polls .
Dont kid yourself the ALP are not in charge of the agenda here.