Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Labor

Morgan has released its regular face-to-face poll from its normal weekend polling, and it is most unlike last week’s 57.5-42.5 result, showing Labor’s lead at 52-48 – Labor’s weakest result since Julia Gillard became leader. Labor’s primary vote is 40 per cent, down three points on last week, while the Coalition is up six to 43 per cent and the Greens down two to 13.5 per cent. Within being privy to any actual knowledge about Roy Morgan’s operations, I have to say this seems an odd time for this notoriously pro-Labor series to return to the pack. The sample for the poll is 1049, and the margin-of-error about 3 per cent.

UPDATE: Two local polls have emerged from New South Wales, telling very different stories. In Paterson, a Patterson Market Research survey of 400 voters conducted for the Newcastle Herald shows Labor challenger Jim Arneman taking a 51-49 lead over Liberal incumbent Bob Baldwin, which squares almost perfectly with the JSW Research poll conducted over the weekend. This makes doubly interesting Julia Gillard’s decision to take the time to visit the electorate just two days out from polling day. South of Sydney, we learn from Twitter of an Illawarra Mercury poll – presumably conducted by IRIS Research from a sample of 300 or 400 – confirms the picture of a similar poll earlier in the campaign, with Liberal member Joanna Gash enjoying a resounding 54 per cent to 32 per cent primary vote lead over Labor’s Neil Reilly.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

904 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Labor”

  1. [I assume you meant ‘right’.

    No, unlike most in here, I was prepared to offer a range of probable outcomes.]

    Mick, first you correct Ron’s spelling, then you say something contradictory like “a range of probable outcomes”. There can be no such thing. “Possible” outcomes is what you meant.

    Night Bludgers

  2. canberra boy@880

    Musrum (#647)

    Triva Question:
    In what circumstances are you able to vote* in an electorate where you don’t live**?
    * voting for the candidates of that electorate.
    ** you have never moved.

    Section 94A of the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 allows you to vote in an electorate where you don’t live if:
    *you enrol on the basis that you have ceased to reside in Australia but would be eligible to enrol if you lived in Australia; and
    *you enrol in a subdivision for which your next of kin is/are enrolled or a subdivision with which you have the closest connection.

    I recall that some time back the Act allowed a Senator to transfer their enrolment to any electorate in the State they represent, but I cannot find this in the present law.

    The Senator answer is the closest to the one I was looking for:
    If you are a sitting member and a redistribution places your home outside your electorate, you get the option to vote in your old electorate.

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