Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Labor

Morgan has released its regular face-to-face poll from its normal weekend polling, and it is most unlike last week’s 57.5-42.5 result, showing Labor’s lead at 52-48 – Labor’s weakest result since Julia Gillard became leader. Labor’s primary vote is 40 per cent, down three points on last week, while the Coalition is up six to 43 per cent and the Greens down two to 13.5 per cent. Within being privy to any actual knowledge about Roy Morgan’s operations, I have to say this seems an odd time for this notoriously pro-Labor series to return to the pack. The sample for the poll is 1049, and the margin-of-error about 3 per cent.

UPDATE: Two local polls have emerged from New South Wales, telling very different stories. In Paterson, a Patterson Market Research survey of 400 voters conducted for the Newcastle Herald shows Labor challenger Jim Arneman taking a 51-49 lead over Liberal incumbent Bob Baldwin, which squares almost perfectly with the JSW Research poll conducted over the weekend. This makes doubly interesting Julia Gillard’s decision to take the time to visit the electorate just two days out from polling day. South of Sydney, we learn from Twitter of an Illawarra Mercury poll – presumably conducted by IRIS Research from a sample of 300 or 400 – confirms the picture of a similar poll earlier in the campaign, with Liberal member Joanna Gash enjoying a resounding 54 per cent to 32 per cent primary vote lead over Labor’s Neil Reilly.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

904 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. [Thanks William. I can’t find how big the sample size for the Paterson poll released today was. I would assume around the usual 400?]

    I’m assuming so. But the JWS poll also had Labor ahead in Paterson, and doing well on the central coast generally, and the PM did of course visit today. I wouldn’t go so far as to say they’ll win, but it will at least be worth keeping an eye on.

  2. Grog , No

    internal pollin is leaked at THIS time “showing” poor result/under dog to win votes (irespective of wht internal polling says)

  3. Prepoll.

    Was at three prepoll centres today. All packed. This is becoming a new phenomena of Australian elections. People are working out they can vote in advance and get it out of the way. Does anyone have any national figures on prepoll voting 2004 v 2007? I can only find by electorate and, hey, I’m lazy. But my instinct tells me this will become a larger and larger slice of the vote, and an important facet to campaigning. DGaz hisself was handing out for the Libs at Struggletown today.

  4. While I was driving on the M4 this morning, I noticed 3 vehicles with Lib billboards parked in the breakdown lane on the M4. Is it legal to do that?

  5. #808 Jon

    I am not as interested in politics as I am of getting a descent policy that deals effectively with the problem of climate change.

    Well how’s that progressing then?

    There are positive noises from both Julia and Bob.

  6. I have done some checking on the betting 2 days before previous elections.

    The odds for the opposition leaders who failed to win the election were as follows:

    In 98 Beazley was at 2.90

    In 01 Beazley was at 3.90

    In 04 Latham was at 5.50

    Abbott right now is 3.65

    Somehow it feels just as close as 98.

  7. interesting last sentence though:

    More results will be published in The Australian tomorrow. And the results of the full Newspoll survey of 2500 voters will be published in The Weekend Australian on Saturday after another night of polling.

  8. That site someone pointed to

    on the side is new Nielsen poll 55% !!!

    If you follow the link, it’s dated June 25th.

  9. [That site someone pointed to

    on the side is new Nielsen poll 55% !!!]

    I got pretty excited about that as well … until I realised the date. 🙁

    Anyway, still a useful reminder that a few weeks back, Australia was ready to give a landslide win to Labor.

    Would Labor’s early campaign troubles have really affected people so much that they’re instead now ready to throw out the government ? I would say that any effect of the leaks would be purely temporary.

  10. “Thanks William. I can’t find how big the sample size for the Paterson poll released today was. I would assume around the usual 400?”

    No , i assumed a Gallaxy number of 200 seeing i could find no info , so ignored it in prdicts
    But if it is 400 then Labor has a 50/50 shot

  11. JV – have you rethought your Latham moment – the least you could do is give a formal HoR vote to Greens so they get the $2.34 or whatever to continue campaign for proportional representation?

  12. Musrum (#647)

    Triva Question:
    In what circumstances are you able to vote* in an electorate where you don’t live**?

    * voting for the candidates of that electorate.
    ** you have never moved.

    Section 94A of the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 allows you to vote in an electorate where you don’t live if:
    *you enrol on the basis that you have ceased to reside in Australia but would be eligible to enrol if you lived in Australia; and
    *you enrol in a subdivision for which your next of kin is/are enrolled or a subdivision with which you have the closest connection.

    I recall that some time back the Act allowed a Senator to transfer their enrolment to any electorate in the State they represent, but I cannot find this in the present law.

  13. Ron

    [Mike Wilkinson

    just so its on record in advance , you’ve blogged suport for EVERY combination of electon result , so that after you can select from your ’selections’ and say you were rite]

    I assume you meant ‘right’.

    No, unlike most in here, I was prepared to offer a range of probable outcomes. It’s not ‘my’ data so being right matters little, except to see the one or two cycloptic ostriches in here peel into hissy fits.

    What I have done is give the spread of events as I have processed them, very similar to Possum’s results but not as pretty, nor as skewed towards polls, since we have established here that they are of limited efficacy.

    Instead, I admit, I have used a model which is based 50% on seat polls over the last 10 days now, and seat betting (over six houses, not one as some choose to do here to talk up ALP chances). These results point to a situation of ALP:COAL:IND:GRN of 72:74:3:1 which is one of seven minority coalition government possible outcomes.

    Thus, yes, i have suggested that this is a likely outcome amongst a family of outcomes which, on implied probabilities is at a 95% confidence interval.

    I am not a mystic, so there will not be credit to me at all on the day if these outcomes eventuate, it is just what the numbers are saying.

    I should state that there is still exactly half of these 24 events which see the ALP returned, though I think outcomes where the ALP manages, 81,80,79 or 78 seats are quite unlikely, compared with events in the middle 12 (with the ALP 77-72 seats).

  14. Thanks again William.

    But if it is 400 then Labor has a 50/50 shot

    Yes it increasingly looks like Labor could be a chance here Ron.

  15. Hey guys, I’m putting together an article to be entitled “10 reasons why not to vote for Tony Abbott”. I’m open to suggestions, but basically I’m looking for ideas that aren’t established Labor party talking points. New things which might make people pay attention.

    – Tony Abbott showed total disregard for the final plea of a dying man to spare others from the same misery and add a new mesothelioma drug to the PBS, claiming that “just because someone is dying does not mean they are true of heart in all things” (or words to that effect, there’s a youtube video on it) (Bernie Banton),

    – Tony Abbott was charged with indecent assault, allegedly having touched the upper leg of a woman who was about to give a speech. He was acquitted, however questions still linger over what transpired.

    – He blocked the introduction of RU486

    – He was caught out lying by Tony Jones over whether or not he had met Cardinal Pell in the leadup to the 2004 election.

    – He thinks that climate change is “crap”

    – He feels “threatened” by gay men

    – Something more on his devout religious views perhaps?

    – He is against one of the most important pieces of infrastructure for our future, the NBN

    Extra points, or things to flesh this out welcome.

    Might be easier if you guys post ideas at the bottom of this post: (just so they don’t get mixed up with the ongoing conversation here).

  16. #819 Ron

    2 libs crossed floor to vote with Govt , if Greens 5 Senators also done so we’d hav an ETS now Instead Greens voted with Libs Minchin and Brnaby , even sat next to them

    Correction, we would have a crap ETS now.

    When the Lib’s cross the floor it is tokenism but at least the Libs CAN cross the floor, what about Labor? 😉

  17. For years I carted around the Herald Sun banner headline: HEWSON IN LANDSLIDE from their first edition. That was in ’93. Pinched it from the South Werribee shop. It’d be a collectors item now, but some bozo went mad at a party and burnt it. Musicians. Bah!

  18. Mithrandir@854

    While I was driving on the M4 this morning, I noticed 3 vehicles with Lib billboards parked in the breakdown lane on the M4. Is it legal to do that?

    No it’s a automatic disqualification of the party and all its candidates pursuant to Section 170 of the Electoral Act 1918. The election is now cancelled, or void if it proceeds. 😆

  19. [TSOP

    Isn’t Newspoll the one you feel is best?]

    Yes but,

    they’re not infallible. And this is the first time I have watched the polls as our side were running for re-election.

Comments are closed.

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