Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Labor

Morgan has released its regular face-to-face poll from its normal weekend polling, and it is most unlike last week’s 57.5-42.5 result, showing Labor’s lead at 52-48 – Labor’s weakest result since Julia Gillard became leader. Labor’s primary vote is 40 per cent, down three points on last week, while the Coalition is up six to 43 per cent and the Greens down two to 13.5 per cent. Within being privy to any actual knowledge about Roy Morgan’s operations, I have to say this seems an odd time for this notoriously pro-Labor series to return to the pack. The sample for the poll is 1049, and the margin-of-error about 3 per cent.

UPDATE: Two local polls have emerged from New South Wales, telling very different stories. In Paterson, a Patterson Market Research survey of 400 voters conducted for the Newcastle Herald shows Labor challenger Jim Arneman taking a 51-49 lead over Liberal incumbent Bob Baldwin, which squares almost perfectly with the JSW Research poll conducted over the weekend. This makes doubly interesting Julia Gillard’s decision to take the time to visit the electorate just two days out from polling day. South of Sydney, we learn from Twitter of an Illawarra Mercury poll – presumably conducted by IRIS Research from a sample of 300 or 400 – confirms the picture of a similar poll earlier in the campaign, with Liberal member Joanna Gash enjoying a resounding 54 per cent to 32 per cent primary vote lead over Labor’s Neil Reilly.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

904 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Also…

    Many Laborites are upset about the failure of the so called ETS because of politics, it made Labor look bad. I am not as interested in politics as I am of getting a descent policy that deals effectively with the problem of climate change.

  2. Thanks to the federal govt spending our taxes on private schools some of these pentecostal joints have even got their own schools my partner has just informed me.

  3. Given the football thread …

    Sign on Manly church notice board about twenty years ago …..

    “What would you do if Jesus came to Manly?”

    Some wag wrote underneath ‘ “move Brannigan to the wing, but leave Fulton at inside centre”.

    Apologies to those who do not know the true heroes of AFL.

  4. [ I am not as interested in politics as I am of getting a descent policy that deals effectively with the problem of climate change. ]
    Well how’s that progressing then?

  5. Brisoz
    [Mike, you keep saying Coalition will win, now you saying minority coalition gov…

    Do you change what you say every night?]

    Firstly, I am not sure you have been on every night. Secondly, my position for about a week now has been that some kind of coalition victory, somewhat surprisingly, seems to be a distinct possibility.

    On Tuesday I ran a series of outcomes for the make up of parliament and compared with Possum’s CLT graphs after Mumble suggested that a hung parliament was unlikely.

    I am trying to be (small c) conservative here and suggest that, yes, a likely result will be a coalition minority government with a green BOP in the senate. It is a chance that the coalition may govern in its own right though I am not prepared to predict that at present. Unlike many here, I do modify predictions on the basis of the fullest and latest evidence, not hum “Workers of the state unite” whilst racking up predictions of 100 seats for Labor on the basis of a crocodile, a ‘vibe’, the sure feeling that “Australians can’t be that stupid” or taking a beautiful set of the best ALP polls for the last three years and averaging those….

    I trust that makes some sense…

  6. Thanks William. I can’t find how big the sample size for the Paterson poll released today was. I would assume around the usual 400?

  7. This is true. Witnessed it myself:

    The Liberals appear to have conceded the bellwether NSW seat of Eden-Monaro.

    Liberal candidate David Gazard has spent the last two days on his own handing out how-to-vote cards outside the Queanbeyan pre-polling booths.

    Sources within the campaign of Labor candidate Dr Mike Kelly have described this strategy as “lazy.” The electorate has significant votes along the South Coast where Mr Gazard has done no campaigning in the last two days on the eve of the election.

    Labor sources are perplexed by Mr Gazard’s tactics. When questioned, the Liberal candidate said the result would be close, 2-4 percent either way.

    He said it had been a very good election campaign that had been noticeable free of trouble.

    http://theangle.org/2010/08/19/election-2010-have-liberals-conceded-eden-monaro/

  8. Mick S
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 10:01 pm | Permalink

    #547 ITEP

    “The Greens had no influence in whether the ETS passed or failed, that was the Coalition, Fielding and Xenephon. ”

    FALSE
    2 libs crossed floor to vote with Govt , if Greens 5 Senators also done so we’d hav an ETS now Instead Greens voted with Libs Minchin and Brnaby , even sat next to them

  9. That is the success rate of the Australian’s support in elections.

    Remember Rupert only backs winners. His other rags can say what it likes, but I’m assuming Rupert’s true opinion comes through the Australian..

  10. [not hum “Workers of the state unite” whilst racking up predictions of 100 seats for Labor on the basis of a crocodile, a ‘vibe’, the sure feeling that “Australians can’t be that stupid” or taking a beautiful set of the best ALP polls]

    *waves*++btw since i am the only one who has predicted 100 seats ,man up and name me

    otherwise there is a bridge underpass with your name on it

  11. gloryconsequence
    I will record the coverage on abc 7 and nine and if at 7:30, 7:45 Anthony Green Says ” there is a swing but the swing seems to be Labor and Half an Hour later says Labor will romp home then I will Watch them over and over. I think the result will be a comfortable win for Labor.
    Don’t believe that Blue Collar Men will vote for Libs. not what I,m hearing.
    I will make copies of recordings and let You and anyone else that would like copy when they ready and give William my Address I will also make them available as torrents so you may download them.
    If Libs win I won’t watch them and will delete them once I have mad a copy.
    Best wishes to you all and may the next 48 hours be a great and enjoyable experiance

  12. Mike Wilkinson

    just so its on record in advance , you’ve blogged suport for EVERY combination of electon result , so that after you can select from your ‘selections’ and say you were rite

  13. [How long until the OO endorses Gillard?]
    Maybe neither…both sides have disappointed the people of this great country…sort of thing

  14. [That site someone pointed to

    electionpredict.com/aus

    on the side is new Nielsen poll 55% !!!]

    But when you open the link it’s referring to the Neilsen of 25 June.

  15. @Mike/809,

    Mike, I don’t think Many of us here actually think that Labor will pick up 100 Seats, now off the high horse please.

    Alot of us think around ~80-~90 seats max.

    So calm down dude, Coalition need to learn their lessons as well as Labor.

  16. Peter Hartcher earlier on ABC Radio in Sydney(Richard Glover’s show) was predicting a very narrow Labor win, and he thinks the difference might be that people have more confidence in Julia’s ability to lead.
    Focus groups apparently are voicing a little disquiet about Abbott! 🙂

  17. #694 George and Cuppa

    Pure Bile Cuppa. Simply a horrible thing to say about any human being whether you support him or not.

    You do the realise which Abbott we’re talking about right? The same guy who would shit on the underprivileged, the low-paid and the desperate asylum seekers. But carry on with your high moral ground…

    If the debate is about abusing those you disagree with it is a pretty piss poor debate. I think your unconditional love for your party is making you two spout some absolute venom.

  18. Mick S@801

    Also…

    Many Laborites are upset about the failure of the so called ETS because of politics, it made Labor look bad. I am not as interested in politics as I am of getting a descent policy that deals effectively with the problem of climate change.

    Yes indeed. The convoluted unnecessary weaving done by Labor on the ETS since 12 months ago is enough to have resulted in a nice Persian carpet – but with no apparent design.

    The b/s blame of everyone but the party of government despite the opportunities wasted is empty hand-wringing by party operatives, as we see here every time it is brought up.

    However, given Gusface’s truce – even though I am not a Green – I do not wish to inflame things as to history.

    The future is the thing, and Julia better get Professor Garnaut back in the tent and go with his model. I saw him on Lateline the other night and he just said it as it is – brilliant and measured. If Labor win, as I expect, the worst thing they could do as take that as an endorsement of the travesty of the last 6-8 months of alleged government, and continue with NSW right followship.

  19. [In momentary defence of Tony Abbott, a shandy is a maligned but very refreshing drink, especially for someone intending to stay up for 36 hours straight, who would probably slump in a heap if he were to have a full-strength drink]

    Sure but why bother

  20. As a purely pragmatic political position it made sense for the greens to block it,as it made the greens look like they took the issue seriously and Labor didn’t, winning over Labor voters who are passionate about the issue.If the greens had passed it they would currently be polling their usual 6-8%. Brown is not dumb.

  21. sorry – i am too tired !!! July 18!!!

    Sincerest apologies – not into twitter

    Too many late nights – sleep deprivation IS very bad for you!

    Need a “Ringtone” CatNap, will be back later

    ps – *now in running for most annoying post

  22. [Peter Hartcher earlier on ABC Radio in Sydney(Richard Glover’s show) was predicting a very narrow Labor win]

    That’s what all the recent polls say.

  23. Is it at all possible Labor leaked their internal polling after finding out the Nielsen/Newspoll would show a great result for Labor?

    That’s an interesting theory – one which matches mine that the internal polling was leaked to make sure voters don’t take the election for granted despite what the polls are saying.

    We’ll see I guess.

  24. [If the debate is about abusing those you disagree with it is a pretty piss poor debate. I think your unconditional love for your party is making you two spout some absolute venom.]

    Mike, I could care less what you think. In all seriousness

Comments are closed.

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