Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Labor

Morgan has released its regular face-to-face poll from its normal weekend polling, and it is most unlike last week’s 57.5-42.5 result, showing Labor’s lead at 52-48 – Labor’s weakest result since Julia Gillard became leader. Labor’s primary vote is 40 per cent, down three points on last week, while the Coalition is up six to 43 per cent and the Greens down two to 13.5 per cent. Within being privy to any actual knowledge about Roy Morgan’s operations, I have to say this seems an odd time for this notoriously pro-Labor series to return to the pack. The sample for the poll is 1049, and the margin-of-error about 3 per cent.

UPDATE: Two local polls have emerged from New South Wales, telling very different stories. In Paterson, a Patterson Market Research survey of 400 voters conducted for the Newcastle Herald shows Labor challenger Jim Arneman taking a 51-49 lead over Liberal incumbent Bob Baldwin, which squares almost perfectly with the JSW Research poll conducted over the weekend. This makes doubly interesting Julia Gillard’s decision to take the time to visit the electorate just two days out from polling day. South of Sydney, we learn from Twitter of an Illawarra Mercury poll – presumably conducted by IRIS Research from a sample of 300 or 400 – confirms the picture of a similar poll earlier in the campaign, with Liberal member Joanna Gash enjoying a resounding 54 per cent to 32 per cent primary vote lead over Labor’s Neil Reilly.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

904 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. G
    One of my bros in law has just had the rebore. Horror story. Childbirth a cinch next to the agony, apparently. Four weeks after the op he was having a few coronas and some clots blocked the pipe. His bladder filled fit to burst. He was in agony. Collapsed. Ambulance. Very, very late, slow ambulance. Catheters, etc, etc…
    The specialist told him that some guys return four or five times after the op to get the clots and stuff out…And in about 10 years he will have to return for a rebore of the rebore…
    Hope this helps…

  2. [I’m guessing you’re either from Melbourne and are the type who hates soccer with a passion or you’re from Adelaide or Sydney and a fan of soccer. Lol.]

    Adelaide and imagining mean things about Victory!

  3. Rugby League was the no.1 footy code in Australia before Rupe’s cronies got their grubby hands on our game.

    It is disgraceful that now the womens (AFL) are paid more, is better administered and is more popular than the mens (League).

  4. If Samantha Maiden is hinting of some big poll movement towards the Liberals, it’s not as yet being reflected in the betting markets.

    You really need to not over read what she tweets.

  5. Pica

    On a serious note, I think Mick Malthouse has done a fabulous job this year with the Collingwood team. I rate him Coach of the year.

  6. The things that come up in an election

    [Democrats candidate admits to child sex offence

    Posted 10 minutes ago

    Posters for an Australian Democrats candidate in the federal election are being taken down across the Adelaide seat of Sturt after he admitted to attempting to procure a child for sex.

    Darren Andrews has stood down from the campaign less than two days before voters go to the polls on Saturday.

    Mr Andrews told Channel 7 News that he made plans over the internet to meet who he thought was a 15-year old boy, but the “boy” turned out to be a police officer.

    Democrats’ lead Senate candidate Jeanie Walker says Mr Andrews lied to the party about not having a criminal record.

    “Unfortunately the party found out when the media contacted us, so we’ve only just known basically just before it went to air on Channel 7,” she said.

    “We’ve started pulling down the posters and ceasing campaigning in Sturt as soon as we were contacted by the media.”]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/08/19/2988107.htm?section=justin

  7. [Woo they are broadcasting the “exclusive” Kevin Rudd to Chinese Media interview on right now on TVBJ (The local Chinese TV service… my family is asian so we have it, I suspect many other chinese famileis would too. )]

    You have to hand it to Kev. He is doing his bit to help his Party and for that I am very appreciative. I want the history books to be kind to him. I guess people like Marr and Ellis will be hanging around to write an ‘inside’ story of what went wrong except that they’ve been on the outside for awhile.

  8. Haha good point Pica!! 😉

    I don’t want to think about Collingwood. This year, unlike any other year, I can see them taking home the silverware.

  9. Billy Bowe
    [ Within being privy to any actual knowledge about Roy Morgan’s operations, I have to say this seems an odd time for this notoriously pro-Labor series to return to the pack.]

    Yes, Morgan is known for overstating ALP voting intention. So this result is not what anyone pro-ALP would like to be seeing.

    It is interesting to see Antony Green on the 7:30 reporting several important things that I have been slammed for suggesting here:
    1. That in this election, National Swings are almost useless in predicting outcomes
    2. Even state polling is likely to be unreliable for predicting seats in parliament.
    3. Many more seats seem to be in play for the coalition that thought at the beginning of the campaign.
    4. A coalition victory is a possibility, as is an ALP narrow win or a hung parliament.

    Now Mumble played down the hung parliament scenario on Tuesday, though, as I have suggested many times this week, in 24 events from ALP:COAL:IND:GRN at 80:67:3:0 to 70:77:3:0 & 79:67:3:1 to 69:77:3:1, the outcomes are:

    ALP outright win: 11
    Coalition outright win: 4
    Coalition minority: 7
    ALP minority: 1
    Pure Hung Parliament:1

    Events with the ALP at 80 seem as unlikely as the coalition with anything over 75, so the most likely outcome is some kind of minority government. Only 1 event gives this for the ALP for sure (74:72:3:1) though this is not to say that at least one independent would not break ranks to form an ALP minority, they are after all, independent.

    However, it seems most likely that a minority coalition government will form since a broader number of net seat outcomes are available for that outcome to eventuate.

  10. [In momentary defence of Tony Abbott, a shandy is a maligned but very refreshing drink, especially for someone intending to stay up for 36 hours straight, who would probably slump in a heap if he were to have a full-strength drink]

    I’d stick to the red bulls, myself.

  11. Tom Hawkins – the news story went in to even more detail. He said – and I quote – “I wasn’t interested in much, just touching, none of the other stuff”.

    How a bloke like that gets his name on a ballott is mind boggling.

  12. [I rate him Coach of the year.]

    Couldn’t agree more Vic, he almost pinched us one against brizzy, but this time he might be in charge of the real deal…

    Go Pies! Go Ranga!

  13. To Speak of Pebbles@752

    Lol. I don’t blame you. The second Grand Final showdown should have gone to you guys and I say that as a Victory fan. And as a Heart fan (I just cant choose!) I also say enjoy 3 points on us tomorrow night. 😉

  14. Updates from Rudd’s Twitter site!
    He was in Forde on Tuesday, helping out Brett Raguse.
    On Wednesday, he was back in Bennelong with Maxine.
    Today, he campaigned with Cath Bowtell in the seat of Melbourne.
    The Ruddster is doing his bit for the cause! 🙂

  15. Victoria
    [On a serious note, I think Mick Malthouse has done a fabulous job this year with the Collingwood team. I rate him Coach of the year.]

    I am, by no means a Collingwood fan but Mick Malthouse is a coaching legend. The pies are an incredible unit at the present. An absolute machine.

  16. [Are Pattersons Market Research the mob that Mumbles reckons are a Mickey Mouse outfit?]

    The only thing wrong with Patterson as far as I can tell is that their samples – usually 400 – are too small. When they occasionally do a big sample poll, as they sometimes do for The West Australian, they seem to do perfectly okay.

  17. [Updates from Rudd’s Twitter site!
    He was in Forde on Tuesday, helping out Brett Raguse.
    On Wednesday, he was back in Bennelong with Maxine.
    Today, he campaigned with Cath Bowtell in the seat of Melbourne.
    The Ruddster is doing his bit for the cause!]

    A champion.

  18. #547 ITEP

    Mick S, I don’t agree with you. Neither does Tim Flannery by the way. He thinks the Greens should’ve passed the CPRS and that they should do so at the next available opportunity.

    The Greens had no influence in whether the ETS passed or failed, that was the Coalition, Fielding and Xenephon.

    The conservatives didn’t vote for the ETS because they live in the stone age, they don’t believe in AGW. The Greens didn’t vote for the legislation because it sucked.

    Why do so many Laborites on this blog get so worked up about this, look to the future, in the next 12 months there will be a centre-left senate and we can get some real legislation through not just comprimised crap.

  19. [
    The second Grand Final showdown should have gone to you guys
    ]

    Bah, no win should ever go to Adelaide. It’s produced Alexander Downer, Christopher Pyne and Nick Minchin. Maintain the rage 🙂

  20. For all other Bludgers except Psephos, I offer the following observations about Lindsay.

    Lindsay was a Howard battlers seat with an ever increasing % of McMansions and a high % of bogus one-person trade “contractors” who benefitted from Howard’s reversing the ATO’s decision.

    Penrithians look down their noses at the “Westies” of the adjacent, significantly lower income suburbs like Blacktown and Mt. Druitt.

    Lib princess, Jackie Kelly, reigned virtually unchallenged throughout the entire Howard government. Her last two comfortable victories were against current Labor incumbent (and former Mayor of Penrith) David Bradbury.

    Bradbury has never been a good campaigner or public speaker. He comes across a lot better on tv or radio, fortunately. My opinion is based on working for both his campaigns as well as attending his official Mayoral functions like citizenship ceremonies.

    The fake pamphlet scandal greatly inflated Bradbury’s margin of victory to 6.3% in ’07. At best, the demographics of this electorate would make this line-ball for Bradbury to retain. And that’s before factoring in any “punish-the-state-government” impact.

    The Lib candidate, Fiona Scott, is a marketing consultant. I don’t know if she has a bit of the “Jackie Kelly magic” going for her, but on the plus side for Labor, Scott is on bottom of the ballot and Bradbury drew #1 position.

  21. [ He was in Forde on Tuesday, helping out Brett Raguse. ]

    Now there is a quality individual…..not. Having worked closely with him prior to his political career I was gob smacked when he got elected.

  22. [Why do so many Laborites on this blog get so worked up about this, look to the future, in the next 12 months there will be a centre-left senate and we can get some real legislation through not just comprimised crap.]

    1. I’m not a “Laborite”
    2. The Senate balance matters not a jot if the House is controlled by the Denialists Party

  23. Grog – great post today. Don’t know how to get into your comments but the Catherine Zeta Jones reference is because she is Welsh. My Welsh git OH has a thing for CZJ as well!! except he’s now so old if he tried to catch her he’d trip over. lol

    Gee I hope he doesn’t read that tomorrow.

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