Morgan has released its regular face-to-face poll from its normal weekend polling, and it is most unlike last week’s 57.5-42.5 result, showing Labor’s lead at 52-48 – Labor’s weakest result since Julia Gillard became leader. Labor’s primary vote is 40 per cent, down three points on last week, while the Coalition is up six to 43 per cent and the Greens down two to 13.5 per cent. Within being privy to any actual knowledge about Roy Morgan’s operations, I have to say this seems an odd time for this notoriously pro-Labor series to return to the pack. The sample for the poll is 1049, and the margin-of-error about 3 per cent.
UPDATE: Two local polls have emerged from New South Wales, telling very different stories. In Paterson, a Patterson Market Research survey of 400 voters conducted for the Newcastle Herald shows Labor challenger Jim Arneman taking a 51-49 lead over Liberal incumbent Bob Baldwin, which squares almost perfectly with the JSW Research poll conducted over the weekend. This makes doubly interesting Julia Gillard’s decision to take the time to visit the electorate just two days out from polling day. South of Sydney, we learn from Twitter of an Illawarra Mercury poll – presumably conducted by IRIS Research from a sample of 300 or 400 – confirms the picture of a similar poll earlier in the campaign, with Liberal member Joanna Gash enjoying a resounding 54 per cent to 32 per cent primary vote lead over Labor’s Neil Reilly.
40…..need to be at 41, darn
Yeah, well they just did a “snap” poll with a crocodile in Darwin and it selected Jules, so I’m fine with that.
ru
[ Gillard has said it hundreds of times in the past 4 weeks. Yes.]
When and how much? And what are the targets?
Psephos told us the ETS was deader than the White Australia policy.
So william what do you think of this. margin for errorr ect.
From the other thread:
Interesting poll. First one who makes arbitrary subtractions because of “ALP bias” gets smacked!
Anyway, I do not trust Face to Faces, they’re always so wild.
William, didn’t another phone poll Morgan put it at 50/50 earlier in the campaign? If so, this isn’t the weakest.
george
[Yeah, well they just did a “snap” poll with a crocodile in Darwin and it selected Jules, so I’m fine with that.]
Evidently it took 5 minutes for the crocodile to chomp on the Gillard chicken. Sounds like he was pretty undecided.
Within being privy to any actual knowledge about Roy Morgan’s operations, I have to say this seems an odd poll fullstop.
Ah sorry, of course this is a F2F.
Don’t know what to make of it, My Say. Ignore it and wait for phone polls would be my advice.
so was his taken last week end
Anthony Llewellyn, if you’re still lurking.. what’s your thoughts on the mood in Paterson?
Frank
[Seven quotes ALP internal polling showing Labor up 52-48 but losing it in the marginals]
All parties leak fake internal polls to stop the protest vote.
From NSW Opp Leader – re ALP Internal poll:
C2C (Croc to Chook) polls are notoriously unreliable. I wasn’t surprised the croc found Tony Abbott unpalatable.
@11, are there any other polls known or expected at this stage?
Yeah, don’t put too much stock in the leaked internals. Could be true or it is just as likely to be false.
Laurie Oakes mentioned Labor internal polling showing they would lose. Sounds like the usual pre election gambit.
[Channel 7 Adelaide is leading their news with a story of a candidate who has had to withdraw from candidacy due to having been found to have “an extensive criminal history”.
Anyone know who?
I am guessing it must be a Senate candidate otherwise the relevant electorate’s election would be considered having failed – and that would be massive news.]
There’s no such thing as withdrawing a candidacy. Once nominations have closed, you’re a candidate until election day unless you die. Your party can repudiate you, of course, or you can repudiate your party, but you’re still a candidate.
[C2C (Croc to Chook) polls are notoriously unreliable. I wasn’t surprised the croc found Tony Abbott unpalatable.]
Maybe the croc thought the picture of the emaciated reptile (TA) was his mother or something?
[From NSW Opp Leader – re ALP Internal poll:]
That would certainly make perfect sense – it sends a message that people shouldn’t necessarily believe late polls they are clearly expecting will have them ahead.
[All parties leak fake internal polls to stop the protest vote.]
Source or sauce?
Put 52-48 into Antony’s Calculator and Factored in th Retiring Member factor and the ALP have 83 seats 🙂
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/calculator/?swing=national&national=-0.7000015258789063&nsw=0&vic=0&qld=0&wa=0&sa=0&tas=0&act=0&nt=0&retiringfactor=1
I’m happy with that 🙂
May I just say right now: don’t trust a bloody thing you hear leaked in the next 36 hours!
Would Laurie Oakes be likely to be suckered into false claims about internal polling?
Look, if Labor was that worried, JG wouldn’t be swanning (pun intended) to WA 3 days out and having a crack at Canning. Nor would she be heading to Paterson. If it was that bad she’d be shoring up the ALP marginals as best she could.
She seems incredibly calm and confident about things, without being arrogant. Compare that with the shrillness of the opposition honchos.
It isn’t just what they say, it’s as often where they say it.
Gary Morgan is a long time political player. He’s playing the game for his old masters, as they wish. His F2F is simply a ploy to garner traction for the Libs.Always has been.
The last time Morgan did a phone poll very close to a face to face poll was at the beginning of August.
On July 27/28, the phone poll showed Labor 53, Coalition 48 . Then on July 31/ August 1, the face to face showed exactly the same: Labor 53, Coalition 48 .
So, I would argue that the face to face is not necessarily pro-Labor & in fact is closely replicating the face to face poll of the same date which showed Labor 51, Coalition 49.
frank
heretic
😉
[Put 52-48 into Antony’s Calculator and Factored in th Retiring Member factor and the ALP have 83 seats :-)]
I linked to that in the last thread – plugging in Morgan’s state by state figures still gives an ALP win.
@Frank, if this is the case, also happy with anything over 80, but just to be safe, I’m still holding 80 as a prediction.
In your calculations Frank, what would 48 mean for the Coalition ?
wb @ 22,
what if a poll came out claiming that the nsw labor government was similarly losing it in marginals..?
CH7 Melbourne was weird, Mark Riley (goose generally) said, maybe more threatened that if these polls were right, Abbut’s next residence would be the lodge,
It seemed like editorializing ie. Be careful what you wish for.
[C2C (Croc to Chook) polls are notoriously unreliable. I wasn’t surprised the croc found Tony Abbott unpalatable.]
I wasn’t necessarily convinced that the crocodile eating a chicken with Gillards photo on it should count as a Labor win either. Those croc bites aren’t much fun.
I assume Neilsen on Saturday – along with Newspoll.
Also Galaxy al paster.
From a purely mathematical point of view the poll says that the ALS 2PP is between 49 and 55 – it is no mor elikely to be 52 than 50 or indeed 54.
So the poll has a consistent overlap with all recent oolls and the overlap is in a labour majority.
Gos@16
I’ve just checked with Possum’s poll cruncher and a Sample size of 1 (one Croc) with a result of 100% (One chook swallowed whole) has a 0.00% MOE.
Looks pretty accurate to me…
If any of the polls show a “narrowing” you can expect them to be leaked on Friday afternoon as they were last time :p
More on this “Leaked Polling”
I wonder who will win the pollster cred award on Sat. Nielsen git it badly wrong last election and has suffered for 3 years.
Who will get the wooden spoon this election?
A few church organisations aren’t happy with either party’s lack of policy re poverty.
[Anglicare Australia and the Salvation Army have teamed up with other charitable religious organisations to call for the next federal government to develop a 10 year national plan aimed at tackling poverty and disadvantage in the community.
They said on Thursday that this year’s election campaign had ignored the issue of poverty, and in some cases, even entrenched the disadvantage]
Well the trouble is also that conservative parties usually get a small late swing to them in all/most Aus elections. And Mathew Knights has been sacked.
[I wonder who will win the pollster cred award on Sat. Nielsen git it badly wrong last election and has suffered for 3 years.
Who will get the wooden spoon this election?]
It would be nice if Nielsen got vindicated and its 53-47 poll turned out to be the correct one.
Stay calm, prepare wet weather gear, ‘lock and load’ htv cards and get ready for a long day on the front line.
At this stage all that is left is to trust that sufficient of our fellow Aussies understand the importance of things like the NBN – the modern (fibre optic) ‘Light on the Hill’.
Whatever the outcome, in so many respects ‘the fight has just begun’ – e.g. holding the MSM, [I]and especially THEIR ABC,[/I] to account!
Contra Mundum!
(Hope I got the italics right.)
musrum @ 39,
therefore, one can safely conclude that the crocodile consumed a chicken…?
Italics ‘NOT’ 🙁
Well, based on the advice I have received today I think I shall pop a wager on the coalition to win as the bookies seem keen to give me at least 3-1 even though they are making that lot the favorites.
I have never been to a racetrack where the horse you can get the best odds on is the one the bookies really reckon will win, so it is payback time.