Morgan has released its regular face-to-face poll from its normal weekend polling, and it is most unlike last week’s 57.5-42.5 result, showing Labor’s lead at 52-48 – Labor’s weakest result since Julia Gillard became leader. Labor’s primary vote is 40 per cent, down three points on last week, while the Coalition is up six to 43 per cent and the Greens down two to 13.5 per cent. Within being privy to any actual knowledge about Roy Morgan’s operations, I have to say this seems an odd time for this notoriously pro-Labor series to return to the pack. The sample for the poll is 1049, and the margin-of-error about 3 per cent.
UPDATE: Two local polls have emerged from New South Wales, telling very different stories. In Paterson, a Patterson Market Research survey of 400 voters conducted for the Newcastle Herald shows Labor challenger Jim Arneman taking a 51-49 lead over Liberal incumbent Bob Baldwin, which squares almost perfectly with the JSW Research poll conducted over the weekend. This makes doubly interesting Julia Gillard’s decision to take the time to visit the electorate just two days out from polling day. South of Sydney, we learn from Twitter of an Illawarra Mercury poll – presumably conducted by IRIS Research from a sample of 300 or 400 – confirms the picture of a similar poll earlier in the campaign, with Liberal member Joanna Gash enjoying a resounding 54 per cent to 32 per cent primary vote lead over Labor’s Neil Reilly.
Diogenes@43
The ALP had a fair crack at keeping the a whole lot of people out of poverty.
No thanks?
Hmm The Drum showing a Lib & ALP Attack ad – couldn’t this tecghnically be in breach of the Vlackout ?
I know I’m new here so is there a dictionary
I’m guessing MSM is main stream media but what is OO
AND WHAT IS THE TRUCE
@ 41,
so approximately 82.5 people were polled in each of those marginal electorates…?
SMH has reported that JG has distanced herself from Kenneally government. Mightn’t do much for this election but gives the Libs a good line for the NSW election.
I’m staring to think that I should never have found this place.
Earlier today I was calm, relaxed, and felt we’ll win and win quite well. I know a fair bit about betting, so understand that people wait for better odds before betting and also bet for emotional (or illogical) reasons.
That said, the ping pong polling and weird seat betting has me scared that my confidence is ill placed!
I am on the other side of the country, but from what I make out from here anyone with a pulse will beat Labor in NSW, so good lines are hardly required.
[Earlier today I was calm, relaxed, and felt we’ll win and win quite well. I know a fair bit about betting, so understand that people wait for better odds before betting and also bet for emotional (or illogical) reasons.]
Go with that instinct!
Public Servant, I have been for years and I have just learned what MSM is!! OO is the Opposition Organ aka The Australian. If the Libs win on Sat it will be referred to then as the GG – Government Gazette.
ty@48
Yes. Poss confirms it. 🙂
However, to be sure that there was no shenanigans you should really run the experiment again swapping Tony’s chicken onto Julia’s pic.
Since Tony’s pic doesn’t have a chicken the protocol allows us to swap in the actual Tony for this test…
Musrum
I think they were looking at people who were living in poverty, not poverty prevention. No-one ever gets thanked for stopping things from happening. Look at Global Warming, the Flu epdiemic, Y2K, airline safety etc etc.
WTF ?
[I’m guessing MSM is main stream media but what is OO
AND WHAT IS THE TRUCE]
MSM: mainstream media
OO: The Australian newspaper (opposition oracle)
The truce: a campaign halt to the usual PB flame wars between Greens and labor.
Facetiousness, Frank.
Julia on ACA!
my oh said on 7 we are going to loose is so which poll are they quoting
Psephy question
There is an adage that governments have their use-by date and people get sick of them and vote them out. Does the same happen for incumbent politicians or do they get safer and safer?
ALP has been very solid at 1.34 on Betfair over the last couple of days, which supports Morgan’s 52-48 result and is what I think will happen or maybe a touch worse. Reminder that at the last election the ALP was 1.31 and won 52.7-47.3. I just hope that the Greens don’t get the balance of power. It’s bad enough having the economic vandals we have there now without adding the ecofascists to the mix.
Frank at 41 – that’s all of 165 people per seat ffs.
jenauthor, mon amie.
This place is nervous because they are passionate and they are not wide eyed and delusional – unlike the other side who constantly send in 4 year olds to brag about inevitable victory, using the dumbest rationales.
Despite winning in 2007, we’re still scared of that Tory invisible hand, coming into play at the last minute to thrash the Australian people into submission. We were nervous in 2007 and the polls were narrowing. In the end, we’ll be fine this time.
And I disagree that you should never have found this place. We’re glad you did!
Nine news. NBN would destroy Toowoomba & the Darling Downs.
Frank you’ll give people heart attacks posting things like that 🙂
jenauthor: teh government will be returned. All of these sideshows are just the white noise. When you stand back however, you see a government cool, calm and on message, and an opposition hysterical, shrill and resorting to stunts.
Quite possibly an imaginary one, My Say – a Labor internal poll, which only they know the results of. It would make perfect sense for them to be misleading about this because they don’t want their supporters to be complacent.
Excuse my total ignorance, but what happens if Labor (+ any Greens win in Melb) gets exactly 75 seats?
What with? Death rays?
dee @ 72,
similar to when godzilla smashes tokyo?
A national poll this late in the game is totally useless. the organisation that commissioned the poll has wasted their money. A national poll means jack…
Only marginal seat polls have any value. The same goes to Antony Green’s National Pendulum calculator. Totally useless. How many are undecided? That is the only key question that a National poll is of some use.
[Excuse my total ignorance, but what happens if Labor (+ any Greens win in Melb) gets exactly 75 seats?]
Bob Katter becomes Speaker. 😀
[Stephen Spencer sspencer_63
@Pollytics I heard Batman was gone, and Blaxland could go to preferences. less than a minute ago via web in reply to Pollytics]
U heard that too. On the other hand, I hear the swing in Vic is so big, the Coalition will lose Murray and Mallee! 😉
rangasrule
Has Matthew Knights been sacked?
Dee @ 72
[Nine news. NBN would destroy Toowoomba & the Darling Downs.]
What! And did they say how exactly? Or was it just another piece of Ch 9 bollocks?
@ty/78,
You mean, smashed Australia? brought us back to the Stone age of Telecommunications?
[Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 6:26 pm | Permalink
I’m staring to think that I should never have found this place.
Earlier today I was calm, relaxed, and felt we’ll win and win quite well. I know a fair bit about betting, so understand that people wait for better odds before betting and also bet for emotional (or illogical) reasons.
That said, the ping pong polling and weird seat betting has me scared that my confidence is ill placed!]
yes some times i think that but then when william poss explain things i feel better its nice to know that that was proably a leaked poll
but oh doesn’t understand this place and he is yelling labor party let them get away with saying they where spending 1 million dollars a day i explained that was on running expenses for th country. Well why the hell dont tell us with add so on and son
and its hard to convince him about the press
any one else cop that with oh,
so is this indicitive of the country
Channel 7 shock.
They have leaked internal ALP polling that show 52-48 national for ALP but they will lose 13 marginal seats and government
At least 7 realises that they are being used
TSOP Yeah I heard Mallee is a goner. 😉
“Frank you’ll give people heart attacks posting things like that”
Sure as hell nearly gave me one!
Now lets see exactly what is the poll that is scaring us to bits and what is the leaked poll and is it true, its add odds with what insiders here have been saying this week
[Only marginal seat polls have any value.]
You run the risk of becoming obsessed with noise and missing the bigger picture, though.
Knights not sacked
http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/100674/default.aspx
If you’re worried
#69 Jack,
Happy with Fielding and the Lib’s are you?
Diogenes@62
Even those people living in poverty have been helped by the fact that all the exiting supports have not been over burdened by the unnecessary human misery that a coalition moo-cow response to the GFC would have caused.
I take your point though.
[@mumbletwits maybe …apparently it was 1650 voters in 10 marginals in nsw and 10 in qld. 1 minute ago via TweetDeck in reply to mumbletwits]
Is that a total of 1650people polled over 20 seats?
Patrick, the incumbent PM would have the option of (a) resigning immediately and leaving the opposition to try to form a government (bearing in mind that the governing party must provide a Speaker), or (b) meeting parliament and testing the confidence of the House. Either way, there would probably be a second election pretty soon.
[75 William Bowe
Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 6]
so is this the chanel 7 one my hubbie heard. so some one said they know they are being used how do they know this. and is it a normal thing that parties do did they do it last time
Rox
Thanks.