Newspoll: 50-50; Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor

Amid talk of Labor internal polling showing the situation for them souring in New South Wales, The Australian tells us a Newspoll survey conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday has the parties locked together on 50-50, after Labor led 52-48 at the poll conducted over the weekend. It appears Newspoll surveyed 800 people on both evenings and will do so again tonight, producing a 2500-sample poll that will be published in the Weekend Australian. More to follow …

UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes reports Galaxy has Labor 52-48 ahead. Miranda Devine of the Sydney Morning Herald tweets that the Coalition primary vote in Newspoll is up three points, which means 44 per cent.

UPDATE 2: Most excellent comments contributor Lukas relates the Galaxy primary votes are 38 per cent Labor, 41 per cent Coalition and 14 per cent Greens.

UPDATE 3: Herald Sun report on Galaxy here. The sample was 1200, bigger than the Galaxy norm. The report informs us that 38 per cent of voters in New South Wales and Queensland “say they are less likely to vote Labor because of toxic state ALP governments”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

805 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50; Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Does anyone know if any of the TV stations are streaming the election count on the internet? I was hoping that I could watch the Kerry and Antony show but I couldn’t find anything on ABC’s election site that says that they would be doing it.

  4. Scarpat. the abc will do it online. it’ll just pop up in the banner across the top of their news page, where they currently put any press conferences or speeches. once you download the link on to your desktop you can start it up whenever and see what they are currently streaming.

  6. [ The only benefit from We are behind strategy in this election is in clawing back primary green votes form disaffected greens. ]

    I personally have not encountered any hard evidence of that happening, or likely to happen. Quite the reverse.

  8. I think more likely 76-80 for ALP, but 75-71-4 would certainly be v interesting. I think would be a good thing for the ALP actually (keep them on their toes, and Abbott pulling such a good result as to warrant staying on)!

    76-80 should be enough of a slap to have a good think about the cancerous elements.

    83-85+ there is a danger of carrying on without changing anything

  9. The pendulum is useless unless you calibrate the reading. It might apply to the senate in a State breakdown but it should not be used to determine the outcome of the election. we could easily end up with the majority of representation not reflecting the majority of votes. Again the number of undecided is missing form the polls of late. Why is that?

  11. [Scarp, anything can happen in 18/36 months – the three yrs since 2007 have been the most wackaloon period in Ozpollytics that I can remember!]

    Expat, I know what you mean. It was quite a surprise to logon to find that Rudd was gone, it happened that fast.

  12. “And I have a sneaking suspicion that the the seven seats in NSW is derived by extrapolating a swing that is concentrated in Sydney marginals, which are clearly very ugly for the ALP, across the ENTIRE state”

    whilst that wuld be a false assumption , its almost equal true that using a set of marginal seat polls to say other Sydney marginals will go same way is some stretch as well

  13. If you look at possum’s betting market results it appears that Labor is almost likely to win

    but the polls predict a tight result, what the hell is going on here Bill Bowe?

  14. [Oh, and The West Australian backs the Coalition, but you probably could have guessed that.]

    Did its Sunday counterpart?

  15. gough1, #700

    Yes, the perception of a “tight election” will probably not help the Greens, but I’m not sure the ALP have any control over Newspoll.

  19. So yea guys, really where will Tony be campaigning between now and sunrise

    I hope he isn’t lying about the marathon. I expect him to doorknocking right now.

  20. [More results will be published in The Australian tomorrow. And the results of the full Newspoll survey of 2500 voters will be published in The Weekend Australian on Saturday after another night of polling.]

    I think there is merit in banning polls a week before the election. (I qould also ban betting on the outcome)

  21. DAW,

    The pendulum is only ever a conservatives friend.

    Off the top off my head I think basically all of the electoral wins where a majority TPP has resulted in a loss have been at the cost of Labor.

    Basically because of the old ‘crowding’ effect of very very safe labor seats.

    This crowding effect is less pronounced now than in the past.

    Therefore the national poll is more powerful as an indicator.

  23. would anyone else be prepared to trade ALP 75 with Maxine for ALP 80 but without her?

    both sides have some serious crap to shed – the focus group hacks on the ALP side, and the opus dei deadwood (Andrews, Bishop x 2, etc) on the Coalition side. We all would be better off for it…

  27. The pendulum was an interesting graphic tool but it can not and should be used as a compass or barometer. Its like Antony Greens Calculator a very rough means of measurement.

  30. i have this picture in my head of Tone and some deserted intersection in western sydney intoning… “tax the stops, boat the cuts, waste the deficit, spend the ending… guys? guys? where is everyone….??”

  31. [would anyone else be prepared to trade ALP 75 with Maxine for ALP 80 but without her?]

    Policy cannot be implemented from the Opposition bench.

  33. Someone up the thread asked about Grayndler.

    The Greens have run a very low-key campaign at my end – only one letterbox drop as opposed to four from Albo. He could get some grief at a couple of booths around Marrickville and Dulwich Hill, but Grayndler also acquired some Labor bits when Lowe was abolished so it’s swings and roundabouts.

    I think the Green vote will be more likely to come into play in the State election, where his missus might be in danger in her seat of Marrickville. The Greens candidate is from those parts.

  36. So, to clarify – in the camp of Gillard, we have:

    The Age
    The SMH
    The Adelaide Advertiser

    in the camp of Abbott:
    The Australian
    The Daily Telgraph
    The Herald Sun
    The Courier Mail
    The West Australian

    any others people want to add?

  39. [Off the top off my head I think basically all of the electoral wins where a majority TPP has resulted in a loss have been at the cost of Labor.]

    3/4 federally. Exception: 1990.

    SA state election recently was a stunning win by Labor with the 2PP against them.

    The more consistent pattern is that a party winning an outright majority while losing the 2PP is typically the government. The pendulum is the government’s friend – most of the time.

  44. [ When you think of exciting possibilities for this nation that could be debated and proposed as contentious, although winnable, policies, you just have to weep at the smallness of the ideas on offer.
    No word about a next-term republic referendum, same-sex marriage, bringing back to Australia all citizens serving jail sentences overseas, opening up the legal system to deregulation and international competition.
    Anyway, most likely it will all be down to the Greens as to what gets done, and they seem more open to interesting possibilities than big, old, tired drones from the political machines.
    ]

    Is that an endorsement of the Greens by Richard Ackland ?
    Waiter, there’s some fluff in my soup – at least I’ll get meat with the Greens

  45. Re the NBN: The pace of technological change is occurring at an ever increasing exponential rate (sorry about that old dears) so whoever wins the election will have to adopt it, or doom us to become a Business Backwater, or if you like a small, insignificant, branch office, (I suspect that’s the Libs Motto; “Oz we’re the branch office you ignore”) I suspect Malcolm Turnbull would do his utmost to undermine the rabid one, but even MT might not keep up with the pace, as it it is speeding up ever faster, and even I am scared a bit about what is to come)

  46. Bennelong is just such a bad result for us – this is the kind of seat that should really be immuned to the boatmania. The longterm ramifications of not being able to hold this seat are to lenghty to elaborate on at this hour of the morning but they are not good regardless of who wins the election.

  48. [The more consistent pattern is that a party winning an outright majority while losing the 2PP is typically the government.]

    Correct. With the exceptions of when old dodgy electoral systems such as the Playmander were in force, the only time I can cite (I am sure there are others but I cannot find) where the opposition lost the 2PP but went on to form government was in SA in 2002 – that was a minority government not a successfully targeted marginal campaign.

    However, politics is precedents.

  49. Scarps

    [Gus, and the ICC?]

    they wont take calls from aussies

    hyacinth kept ringing and asking for the chief nabob

    didnt go down well in delhi apparently

    🙁

  50. [Bennelong is just such a bad result for us – this is the kind of seat that should really be immuned to the boatmania.]

    PEDRO, from memory, someone posted that there is a considerable group of Tamils in the electorate that could have been alienated by the Government’s policy.

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