Newspoll: 50-50; Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor

Amid talk of Labor internal polling showing the situation for them souring in New South Wales, The Australian tells us a Newspoll survey conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday has the parties locked together on 50-50, after Labor led 52-48 at the poll conducted over the weekend. It appears Newspoll surveyed 800 people on both evenings and will do so again tonight, producing a 2500-sample poll that will be published in the Weekend Australian. More to follow …

UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes reports Galaxy has Labor 52-48 ahead. Miranda Devine of the Sydney Morning Herald tweets that the Coalition primary vote in Newspoll is up three points, which means 44 per cent.

UPDATE 2: Most excellent comments contributor Lukas relates the Galaxy primary votes are 38 per cent Labor, 41 per cent Coalition and 14 per cent Greens.

UPDATE 3: Herald Sun report on Galaxy here. The sample was 1200, bigger than the Galaxy norm. The report informs us that 38 per cent of voters in New South Wales and Queensland “say they are less likely to vote Labor because of toxic state ALP governments”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

805 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50; Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. [@TSOP

    I believe someone twittered that the Illawarra Mercury would be endorsing Labor]

    My money is on that happening. I’ll wait for some evidence though.

    Same with the Territory’s paper. If they’re not too busy talking about some huge crocodile that was photographed…

  3. What Bennelong would show is that the tories are holding their middle class base at the same time as we are losing the anglo blue collar vote.This spells big trouble in the longer term for Labor

  5. So, to clarify – in the camp of Gillard, we have:

    The Age : soft right paper
    The SMH : soft right paper
    The Adelaide Advertiser : hard right paper ( in a soft right town)

    in the camp of Abbott:
    The Australian : hard right paper
    The Daily Telgraph : hard right paper
    The Herald Sun : hard right paper
    The Courier Mail : hard right paper
    The West Australian : hard right paper

  7. I am interested in knowing if the distortion in the way the AEC count the Senate will effect the result. In 2007 the system potentially would have elected the Greens to the Senate not based on merit but due to the flaw in the way the Surplus Transfer value is counted. Giving the Greens a 7,000 vote unfair advantage at the cost of One Nation, DLP and Family First voters. IN Queensland the Greens were denied representation due to the system of segmentation and distribution of preferences from excluded candidates. Labour needs 42% primary to elect three Senators in Victoria. 0.3% more then it had in 2007 in order to overcome the flaw in the counting system, We will know in 48 hours I think.

  8. [ If you look at possum’s betting market results it appears that Labor is almost likely to win

    but the polls predict a tight result, what the hell is going on here…. ]

    Betting markets relate to winners/losers. If a horse wins by a nose, it is the same outcome as if it had won by 20 lengths.

    Polls are measuring exact finishing position and the horses distance from other runners (e.g. whether a horse wins by a nose or 20 lengths) and so is actually measuring a slightly different thing to the betting markets.

    CentreBet have entered the “margin” prediction field, with Coalition at $1.80 (? last time I looked) favourite with 6.5 seats start.

  9. [In 2007 the system potentially would have elected the Greens to the Senate not based on merit but due to the flaw in the way the Surplus Transfer value is counted.]

    Kill me.

  10. [I believe someone twittered that the Illawarra Mercury would be endorsing Labor]

    Oops! I thought that said the Tassie Mercury (who have a horrible website)

  14. Peter when pricing a horse race you use expected margins at the finish as the basis for calculating each horses probaility of winning.

  15. Who has ever voted on the basis of an editorial? Aren’t editorials simply there to provoke letters to the editor?

    I mainly read the SMH and Age online… obviously because of their wisdom (grins) …

  16. Shanahan:

    [Too many Labor people ignored the dire levels of Labor’s primary vote, which remained in the death zone below 40 per cent nationally and in the mid-30s in Queensland and NSW.]

    My God, he’s full of shit. Labor are in trouble because the swing against them is concentrated where the marginal seats are. The level of their primary vote has nothing to do with it.

  17. That is a really delusional article, Frank.

    While I accept I may have some bias and might see things a little too rosily, panic is definitely not the mood I would use to describe Labor’s mood. Somewhere between caution and quiet confidence is more the mark.

    Then again, Shanahan is a total hack and everybody knows it!

  18. To Speak of Pebbles@766

    That is a really delusional article, Frank.

    While I accept I may have some bias and might see things a little too rosily, panic is definitely not the mood I would use to describe Labor’s mood. Somewhere between caution and quiet confidence is more the mark.

    Then again, Shanahan is a total hack and everybody knows it!

    Yup, Signs of panic and desperation usually resort to all night campaiging in Police Stations.

  20. [Yup, Signs of panic and desperation usually resort to all night campaiging in Police Stations.]

    Couldn’t have said it better myself.

    Of course, the commentary will be of the tireless crusader who is fighting for this country (or the parts of it that will get him into power)

  21. Of course, Shanahan is entirely correct to say Labor is “panicking and desperately trying to frighten Labor voters away from protesting about the Rudd government’s record of broken promises and misadventures”. However, if you went through his commentary in October/November 2007 looking for acknowledgement that the Coalition was panicking and desperately trying to frighten Liberal voters away from protesting about the Howard government’s record of broken promises and misadventures, I doubt you’d have much luck.

  22. [ Peter when pricing a horse race you use expected margins at the finish as the basis for calculating each horses probaility of winning.
    ]

    True (using the Don Scott method). However, sometimes if the bookies offered those prices they would not do any business, so they have to offer prices to entice business (whilst at the same time balancing their books to account for the weight of money).

  23. Hi late night bludgers — 2007 lurker here returning to the fold.

    I’m in London — any advice on the best way to watch election night from here? ABC is apparently streaming their coverage without the geo-block. Has anyone used their streaming before? Is it reliable quality or should I head to a pub (I believe there’s one in High Holborn where ALPers will be hanging out).

  26. [William, just admit you’re voting Labor]

    “Are you now, or have you ever been, a voter of the Australian Labor Party?”

  27. [My God, he’s full of shit. Labor are in trouble because the swing against them is concentrated where the marginal seats are. The level of their primary vote has nothing to do with it.]

    Shanahan is lost now that Possum is hanging up his spurs (sort of).

  28. It has long been my view that Shanahan is a great asset for the ALP. He’s that big bore nobody can be bothered to argue with, but everyone endures and secretly contradicts whenever they get the chance.

  32. [Ben Morton of the WA Liberals said his first reaction was shock, followed by disbelief. He did not want to comment directly on the tweets until they were published today]

    Is he the same ben we had over here in the east

    if so,you can have him

  33. Hey Frank, I’m no tech head, but how do you do the whole “Frank Calabrese@777” (or whoever) link at the top of each quoted post? Is there a simple way to do it, or does it require me putting in a tonne of tags?

  34. #771

    On reflection what I probably should have said was:-
    a. Polls measure “reality”.
    b. Betting markets indicate the “opinion” of punters as determined by the weight of money.

    Where a. and b. are at substantial variance, betting opportunities exist. That is after-all how Don Scott made his living – only betting on horses whose real chance of winning was greater than the chance as reflected by the odds (irrespective of whether the horse was “the most likely” one to win the race or not).

  35. [And note that Crabbyannabel is still allowed to tweet sweet nothings about Tony.]

    At least Hutchison’s tweets are amusing.

  37. Gusface@781

    Ben Morton of the WA Liberals said his first reaction was shock, followed by disbelief. He did not want to comment directly on the tweets until they were published today

    Is he the same ben we had over here in the east

    if so,you can have him

    One and the same – he did a job swap with Mark Neeham who now runs the NSW Libs.

  48. [Marathon man Abbott admits to nap]

    So what is going to happen if the Navy needs to call him about a leaky boat spotted on the horizon and he is taking a nap?

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