Newspoll: 50-50; Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor

Amid talk of Labor internal polling showing the situation for them souring in New South Wales, The Australian tells us a Newspoll survey conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday has the parties locked together on 50-50, after Labor led 52-48 at the poll conducted over the weekend. It appears Newspoll surveyed 800 people on both evenings and will do so again tonight, producing a 2500-sample poll that will be published in the Weekend Australian. More to follow …

UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes reports Galaxy has Labor 52-48 ahead. Miranda Devine of the Sydney Morning Herald tweets that the Coalition primary vote in Newspoll is up three points, which means 44 per cent.

UPDATE 2: Most excellent comments contributor Lukas relates the Galaxy primary votes are 38 per cent Labor, 41 per cent Coalition and 14 per cent Greens.

UPDATE 3: Herald Sun report on Galaxy here. The sample was 1200, bigger than the Galaxy norm. The report informs us that 38 per cent of voters in New South Wales and Queensland “say they are less likely to vote Labor because of toxic state ALP governments”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

805 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50; Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. This election (in terms of polling) has remarkable similarities to 2004. In fact, if I recall correctly, the ALP were in front in the final poll, and Alan Ramsay triumphantly declared in his Saturday piece that Latham would be the next Prime Minister.

    I’ve said it all along, and I’ll say it again, Gillard will win. There are too many seats required to fall and the mood for change is one of curiosity. It will dissipate on election day.

  2. TSOP is right. This is to scare the nervous nellies thinking about voting Lib. Queenslanders did that to Goss, and woke up with the Borger government. Parties work hard now to claim underdog status – it plays really well with the vast majority of Australians that couldn’t give a fat rats clacker about politics.

  3. [I have been away from PB all day, did I miss any good comments about Abbott’s sleepless night?]

    He’s driving a cab around Sydney to stay awake

  4. So how does a part poll work, they publish what they had after Tuesday and Wednesday. Then for Saturday’s paper, they publish the full result. Can we compare this poll to the previous one if this is the case?

  5. The betting reads ALP 1.30 / LNP 3.65

    If ever we wanted to know which is the better predictor, well this is it:

    Betting v Polls

    Forever the loser hold your peace 😐

  6. GP: I’m mentally prepared for an Abbott victory.
    Sure I wouldn’t like it, but I lived through 13 years of the Howard Government and survived to tell the tale.
    I’ve learned to never underestimate the rank stupidity of the Australian community. 😉

  7. Listen Labor Hacks, moi included. Labor will win.

    But just in case, Nobody dies OK. The sun will still rise in the West and set in the East.

    Thousands and thousands are dying in the floods in Pakistan and China.

  8. Those people who use FB or Twitter might want to think about taking the opportunity to remind their fellow users if NBN is important to them.

  9. The big losers here are the Greens. A lot of their primary vote will drift naway as people get nervous and flock to the ALP. people will justify it by giving the Greens their number 2 vote – a wasted exercise as an ALP 1 vote will never get redistributed (well, outside the Independent held seats)

  10. No 9

    It’s going to be interesting. I’ll be at the four seasons watching it all unfold after a long day manning booths in Lindsay.

  11. re the markets… get into some of that $3.65 while you still can…. if you honestly think it will be as close as the polls are saying the price is ridiculous in a two horse race with the form saying it is a 50/50 outcome….. at least it can be a slight emotional hedge as well Saturday night

  12. 50:50 Sounds like game over for the ALP. Here’s why:

    If the ALP does not win ANY seats over the last result, the margin required by the coalition is substantially less.

    If Melbourne falls to GRN that is another 2 to find to claw back coaliton seats.

    Boothby and Sturt are about as likely to fall as the implied probability of a coalition win (Sturt 22% chance of win, Boothby 36% compared with 27% Coalition win). Now, as discussed at length, there is a broad disparity between TTP and seat markets, the latter giving a much closer chance of a coalition win.

    So, I think it is game over for the ALP.

  13. go back and read the article. they have only polled 1600 of a planned 2500. they are yet to poll a further 900. which demographic quota’s are they short in??
    saturdays final number for this poll will be 52:48. this one is purely for the papers. saturdays is for their own credibility.

  14. Posted this in the last thread, but I think it’s worth repeating here:

    Hey guys, I’m putting together an article to be entitled “10 reasons why not to vote for Tony Abbott”. I’m open to suggestions, but basically I’m looking for ideas that aren’t established Labor party talking points. New things which might make people pay attention.

    – Tony Abbott showed total disregard for the final plea of a dying man to spare others from the same misery and add a new mesothelioma drug to the PBS, claiming that “just because someone is dying does not mean they are true of heart in all things” (or words to that effect, there’s a youtube video on it) (Bernie Banton),

    – Tony Abbott was charged with indecent assault, allegedly having touched the upper leg of a woman who was about to give a speech. He was acquitted, however questions still linger over what transpired.

    – He blocked the introduction of RU486

    – He was caught out lying by Tony Jones over whether or not he had met Cardinal Pell in the leadup to the 2004 election.

    – He thinks that climate change is “crap”

    – He feels “threatened” by gay men

    – Something more on his devout religious views perhaps?

    – He is against one of the most important pieces of infrastructure for our future, the NBN

    Extra points, or things to flesh this out welcome.

    Might be easier if you guys post ideas at the bottom of this post: (just so they don’t get mixed up with the ongoing conversation here).

  15. This is fearing me into starting finding out the local people and start volunteering!!

    on another note, you guys are all oldies who don’t listen to triple J, but Julia is coming on to them tomorrow morning 🙂

  16. How sad that supposedly Western Sydney will vote Liberal all because of 3,000 boat people – that anti-Muslim dog whistling works a treat out Penrith way.

  17. Asked on previous thread aboput prepolkl numbers. Does anyone have any figures 2004 v 2007?

    Expecting a big jump as this has become a trendy way to vote.

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