Amid talk of Labor internal polling showing the situation for them souring in New South Wales, The Australian tells us a Newspoll survey conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday has the parties locked together on 50-50, after Labor led 52-48 at the poll conducted over the weekend. It appears Newspoll surveyed 800 people on both evenings and will do so again tonight, producing a 2500-sample poll that will be published in the Weekend Australian. More to follow …
UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes reports Galaxy has Labor 52-48 ahead. Miranda Devine of the Sydney Morning Herald tweets that the Coalition primary vote in Newspoll is up three points, which means 44 per cent.
UPDATE 2: Most excellent comments contributor Lukas relates the Galaxy primary votes are 38 per cent Labor, 41 per cent Coalition and 14 per cent Greens.
UPDATE 3: Herald Sun report on Galaxy here. The sample was 1200, bigger than the Galaxy norm. The report informs us that 38 per cent of voters in New South Wales and Queensland “say they are less likely to vote Labor because of toxic state ALP governments”.
WE’RE COMING BACK
Wasn’t the final Newspoll in 2004 50-50?
It could be over.
THis could be the biggest setback in the countries history.
GP
whatever floats your boat
but what about the poll?
Enough evidence now to show that there has been a genuine swing away from Labor in the past week or so. Why would this be?
it’s interesting that Coalition haven’t really gained ground at all.
[Wasn’t the final Newspoll in 2004 50-50?]
yes.
Too funny GP.
Yeah not good. All that can be done now is just to watch the results and see how the seats fall.
I’m still confident of a comfortable ALP victory. No problem
Steady as she goes comrades, nothing to worry about here.
GP @ 1:
Yeah, right. Let’s see if you’ll show your face on Saturday night. I doubt it.
In the end, it will be qualitative, not the quantitative, that decides the election.
I have been away from PB all day, did I miss any good comments about Abbott’s sleepless night?
6-BOATS
The final newspoll in 2007 was 50/50? Are you sure?
bugger
This election (in terms of polling) has remarkable similarities to 2004. In fact, if I recall correctly, the ALP were in front in the final poll, and Alan Ramsay triumphantly declared in his Saturday piece that Latham would be the next Prime Minister.
I’ve said it all along, and I’ll say it again, Gillard will win. There are too many seats required to fall and the mood for change is one of curiosity. It will dissipate on election day.
TSOP is right. This is to scare the nervous nellies thinking about voting Lib. Queenslanders did that to Goss, and woke up with the Borger government. Parties work hard now to claim underdog status – it plays really well with the vast majority of Australians that couldn’t give a fat rats clacker about politics.
Is it too late to start volunteering?
At least now the ALP can stop leaking bad internal polls 😛
[I have been away from PB all day, did I miss any good comments about Abbott’s sleepless night?]
He’s driving a cab around Sydney to stay awake
So how does a part poll work, they publish what they had after Tuesday and Wednesday. Then for Saturday’s paper, they publish the full result. Can we compare this poll to the previous one if this is the case?
The betting reads ALP 1.30 / LNP 3.65
If ever we wanted to know which is the better predictor, well this is it:
Betting v Polls
Forever the loser hold your peace 😐
GP: I’m mentally prepared for an Abbott victory.
Sure I wouldn’t like it, but I lived through 13 years of the Howard Government and survived to tell the tale.
I’ve learned to never underestimate the rank stupidity of the Australian community. 😉
Listen Labor Hacks, moi included. Labor will win.
But just in case, Nobody dies OK. The sun will still rise in the West and set in the East.
Thousands and thousands are dying in the floods in Pakistan and China.
Those people who use FB or Twitter might want to think about taking the opportunity to remind their fellow users if NBN is important to them.
RangasRule #16
2004 not 2007
Rangas, no it was 52/48. Keep in mind this isn’t the last Newspoll. There’ll still be one more. It could potentially be 51/49.
The big losers here are the Greens. A lot of their primary vote will drift naway as people get nervous and flock to the ALP. people will justify it by giving the Greens their number 2 vote – a wasted exercise as an ALP 1 vote will never get redistributed (well, outside the Independent held seats)
The ALP havent rigged the Newspoll, get a grip, this is not good.
No 9
It’s going to be interesting. I’ll be at the four seasons watching it all unfold after a long day manning booths in Lindsay.
The last Newspoll in 2007 was 52/48 to the ALP.
Finnigans – so a complete reversal of normality?
Finns
i want to see GP’s back
re the markets… get into some of that $3.65 while you still can…. if you honestly think it will be as close as the polls are saying the price is ridiculous in a two horse race with the form saying it is a 50/50 outcome….. at least it can be a slight emotional hedge as well Saturday night
I’m not switching from ALP 78 seats to LNP 69 seats
Taking this out of the prediction threadL
Mithrandir@145 on Election predictions thread – The Poll Bludger
Is there any pi left Joe?
Are you miserable lot looking forward to opposition?
50:50 Sounds like game over for the ALP. Here’s why:
If the ALP does not win ANY seats over the last result, the margin required by the coalition is substantially less.
If Melbourne falls to GRN that is another 2 to find to claw back coaliton seats.
Boothby and Sturt are about as likely to fall as the implied probability of a coalition win (Sturt 22% chance of win, Boothby 36% compared with 27% Coalition win). Now, as discussed at length, there is a broad disparity between TTP and seat markets, the latter giving a much closer chance of a coalition win.
So, I think it is game over for the ALP.
So depending on the polling tonight, this poll could end up 52-48 to either side? This is just a big tease
go back and read the article. they have only polled 1600 of a planned 2500. they are yet to poll a further 900. which demographic quota’s are they short in??
saturdays final number for this poll will be 52:48. this one is purely for the papers. saturdays is for their own credibility.
Posted this in the last thread, but I think it’s worth repeating here:
Hey guys, I’m putting together an article to be entitled “10 reasons why not to vote for Tony Abbott”. I’m open to suggestions, but basically I’m looking for ideas that aren’t established Labor party talking points. New things which might make people pay attention.
– Tony Abbott showed total disregard for the final plea of a dying man to spare others from the same misery and add a new mesothelioma drug to the PBS, claiming that “just because someone is dying does not mean they are true of heart in all things” (or words to that effect, there’s a youtube video on it) (Bernie Banton),
– Tony Abbott was charged with indecent assault, allegedly having touched the upper leg of a woman who was about to give a speech. He was acquitted, however questions still linger over what transpired. http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/07/17/1089694611809.html
– He blocked the introduction of RU486
– He was caught out lying by Tony Jones over whether or not he had met Cardinal Pell in the leadup to the 2004 election.
– He thinks that climate change is “crap”
– He feels “threatened” by gay men
– Something more on his devout religious views perhaps?
– He is against one of the most important pieces of infrastructure for our future, the NBN
Extra points, or things to flesh this out welcome.
Might be easier if you guys post ideas at the bottom of this post: http://dailybludge.com.au/2010/08/the-end-is-nigh/ (just so they don’t get mixed up with the ongoing conversation here).
This is fearing me into starting finding out the local people and start volunteering!!
on another note, you guys are all oldies who don’t listen to triple J, but Julia is coming on to them tomorrow morning 🙂
How sad that supposedly Western Sydney will vote Liberal all because of 3,000 boat people – that anti-Muslim dog whistling works a treat out Penrith way.
Asked on previous thread aboput prepolkl numbers. Does anyone have any figures 2004 v 2007?
Expecting a big jump as this has become a trendy way to vote.
Mick, you do realise that Melbourne has no bearing on the outcome as far as government is concerned, as it is clear Adam Bandt would support Labor.
Why would the OO release half the poll and not wait until it is completed?
TSOP
Are you still confident?
And with that, I’m off to bed.
Big day tomorrow.