Newspoll: 50-50; Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor

Amid talk of Labor internal polling showing the situation for them souring in New South Wales, The Australian tells us a Newspoll survey conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday has the parties locked together on 50-50, after Labor led 52-48 at the poll conducted over the weekend. It appears Newspoll surveyed 800 people on both evenings and will do so again tonight, producing a 2500-sample poll that will be published in the Weekend Australian. More to follow …

UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes reports Galaxy has Labor 52-48 ahead. Miranda Devine of the Sydney Morning Herald tweets that the Coalition primary vote in Newspoll is up three points, which means 44 per cent.

UPDATE 2: Most excellent comments contributor Lukas relates the Galaxy primary votes are 38 per cent Labor, 41 per cent Coalition and 14 per cent Greens.

UPDATE 3: Herald Sun report on Galaxy here. The sample was 1200, bigger than the Galaxy norm. The report informs us that 38 per cent of voters in New South Wales and Queensland “say they are less likely to vote Labor because of toxic state ALP governments”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

805 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50; Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 17
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  2. It’s really spooky to see how people who support the Coalition this year are sounding like the people who supported the ALP in 2004.

  3. I’m serious, jokes and partisanship aside, a Luddite Liberal win with their luddite policies could eb the biggest setback in the country’s history, making the late Howard era look like the Renaissance.

  5. In 2004 the polls were trending to Howard this time they are driftind away from us first Morgan now newspoll it looks the ghost of white Australia still haunts large parts of this country.

  6. [How sad that supposedly Western Sydney will vote Liberal all because of 3,000 boat people]

    Of which almost all of them will be found to be legitimate refugees/asylum seekers.

  8. Mick , you contradict yourself inside ½ hour !!

    Mick S
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 10:01 pm | Permalink

    “The Greens had no influence in whether the ETS passed or failed, that was the Coalition, Fielding and Xenephon. ”

    Ron :
    #819 “FALSE
    2 libs crossed floor to vote with Govt , if Greens 5 Senators also done so we’d hav an ETS now Instead Greens voted with Libs Minchin and Brnaby , even sat next to them”

    Mick S
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 10:28 pm | Permalink

    “Ron 819 Correction, we would have a crap ETS now.”

    for hevans sake , pick one position or th other

  9. The Finnigans@26

    Listen Labor Hacks, moi included. Labor will win.

    But just in case, Nobody dies OK. The sun will still rise in the West and set in the East.

    OK, I’ll practice getting with the program:
    Black is White; White is Black.
    We have always been at war with Europa…

  15. So the question is, is there a late swing to Abbott and if so why, and if so why isnt Labor spending the last few days hammering the liberals on costings? perplexed

  20. [How sad that supposedly Western Sydney will vote Liberal all because of 3,000 boat people – that anti-Muslim dog whistling works a treat out Penrith way.]

    When the bogans get their wages and conditions cut, see their interest rates rise time after time after time, see their kids dismissed without cause, and see wealthy couples taking six months off to have a baby at thousands of dollars a week, even they will wake up that they have been taken for a ride by unscrupulous snake oil charlattans.

  21. evan – stanbding for two hours a day on a crowded train works a treat as well. The gist is this: “Federal Labor is just a few ytears away from becoming NSW Labor”. These people have switched off. The lack of a grassroots ALP party that engages its community west of Duck Creek has some bearing on this too mate! And no, I’m not a conservative voter, just callin it how it is.

  22. [- Tony Abbott was charged with indecent assault, allegedly having touched the upper leg of a woman who was about to give a speech. He was acquitted, however questions still linger over what transpired. http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/07/17/1089694611809.html

    – He blocked the introduction of RU486

    …

    – He thinks that climate change is “crap”

    – He feels “threatened” by gay men

    – Something more on his devout religious views perhaps?]

    The brutal truth is that, in the eyes of much of the voting public, these are reasons they should vote for Abbott.

  29. 50-50? it shouldn’t be anywhere *near* that close. how on earth could labor screw things up that tony abbott as pm is a realistic probability? it’s unbelievable. you cannot govern from a defensive crouch and you cannot campaign from one either.

  32. For Dawkins’ sake, you are all psephologists, why does an independent have to tell you to look at the jolly polling over time. It doesn’t change that much in a few days without a disaster. There is no way the vote has collapsed to the extent being speculated about tonight.

    What punters should be doing is looking for good odds about Labor tomorrow. This alleged internal poll stuff is excellent for better odds. Whack it on they won’t lose.

  33. [Coalition – 149
    ALP – 1]

    I like your spirit, GP – good luck in Lindsay on Saturday!!

    Maybe just edge up your life insurance a little bit before leaving the house saturday morning

  34. For those asking about 2004; The election was held on October 9, the equivalent Newspoll to this one held on Oct 6-7 did show 50-50 on TPP. I guess the major difference here is that the 2004 poll had the Government on 45% primaries, and opposition on 39%. The government is not likely to be in the same position on the primary vote here.

  35. 60 – No they will not the media will swing in behind them the cock ups swept under the carpet – look forward to ten years of Howard on steroids.

  37. Sorry Newspoll – but I dont buy it. Not with NBN and the economy front and centre.

    Mark my words: this poll will be proven an outlier inside 48 hours. Possibly earlier by the next newspoll.

  39. # 68

    No. I’m looking forward to the worst government since WWII getting uncerimoniously booted from office. Two miserable PM’s deposed in one term. FANTASTIC!

  40. I’m mentally prepared for an Abbott victory.
    Sure I wouldn’t like it, but I lived through 13 years of the Howard Government and survived to tell the tale.

    That’s where I’m at now. If it were to happen – and I still doubt it very much – we’ll be seeing the worst prepared Australian government in living memory. They’re nowhere near ready. Not only have they not articulated a vision of any description for this country’s future, I doubt it’s even occurred to them that they need one at this stage. They’ve spent the entire year devising negative tactics to keep them competitive in polls.

    Their first job will be to go back and figure out exactly what they’ve promised. Then they’ll have to go back and get it all properly costed. Then they’ll have to figure out a way to weasel out of half of it.

    Anyway, that’s if it happens. And I doubt it will.

  42. No 83

    Hehe, I’ll be doing a marathon in Lindsay. Setting up booths from 4pm Friday, then staying to guard them overnight from union bosses trying to cut them down.

  43. I’m sticking with a Labor loss of government, despite a majority of the 2PP vote.

    Sad but true, folx.

    Stock up on the booze and ganja for Saturday night. It won’t be pretty.

  45. Gus & Mus, in the Quantum world, the sun (the nucleus) does rise in the west and set in the east. It’s perfectly normal 👿

  46. also the next person to whinge, from a defensive crouch of course, that ‘teh greens ruined the ets!!111!one’ should explain clearly why the government did not then call a double dissolution election and refresh its mandate. more terrified gutlessness, that’s why. the tories will die in a ditch for the least of their many idiotic policies while labor will flee in terror from anything that might actually win them votes outside of bankstown.

  47. Guys

    I realise this looks bad, but it still within the MOE of last weekend’s results. The ALP internal poll leaked tonight was taken over the same nights and reflected a national 52-48 figure.We are all poll chasing at the moment, waiitng for the right result to make us feel better.

    Let us see what Morgan, Nielsen, Galaxy and Newspoll say tomorrow and Saturday.

  48. At 50:50

    1. Vic & SA make no dents on Coalition, down 1 if Greens win Melbourne.
    2. Coalition gains 10 seats + holds notionals (as supported by seat markets)
    3. Coalition on 74 seats on all current data.
    4. Coaliton needs 76 to govern in own right (with a green seat or 77 without) and this gives them 7 seats from which to find these, the worst odds of these: currently Eden Monaro at 1.25:3.5 (27%), the best of these roughies, probably Corangamite on 42% chance of a win.

    Will the ALP keep Julia (i hope so, she is a great politician)? Or will Shorten/Arbib/Combet/Swan turn it into an Ultimate Fighting Championship after the fall?

  49. ALP in a canter. And those clowns Arboib and Shorten will think they are heroes. Poor fella my country. Hope the Greens get a big vote. Most sensible party by a country mile. The only one not infested with marketing hacks and ladder climbers. As I have remarked elsewhere:

    In a bygone and vanished era, a parliamentarian would have a social problem brought to their attention by a constituent. The parliamentarian would inform the Minister. The relevant Minister would, in turn, seek advice from the proferssional bureaucrats from the Department who would offer a range of costed solutions. The Minister would then take the issue to Cabinet to get permission for Government to embark on the solution and spend money it.

    The eminent Leslie Cannold points to how, under what I will call The New Policy Development Framework, what happens is as follows: The Government wants to get elected. They identify a group in the community that needs to be won over (in this case, God botherers), so they send some spotty faced kid over to the Department and tell them to find a project that will make the identified group in the community love the government. If then chaps and chapettes in the Department value their limited tenure contract, they’ll bloody well find something quick, and cheap.

    Under The New Policy Development Framework the outcomes for people who the Government doesn’t perceive need to be won over (and it’s a long list; blackfellas, the poor, the unemployed, wogs, poofters, towelheads, rastafarian bottle collectors from Traralgon, the eccentric, the homeless, the educated, greenies, the mad and the disabled) are of no consequence – except in how these people interact with those who do need to be won over. And the general consensus there is “out of sight – out of mind”. Animals, the environment, future generations and/or life is also on this policy “do not bother” register.

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