The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor leading 52-48, from primary votes of 38 per cent Labor (steady), 41 per cent Coalition (down one) and 14 per cent Greens (up one). There’s also that rare thing – an interesting finding on an attitudinal question, this being a plunge in the Coalition’s lead as “better to manage the economy” from 12 per cent to 1 per cent. Chief suspects: Labor’s Hewson-Costello ads and the Coalition’s costings confusion, much of which would have escaped the Sunday-to-Thursday time frame of the great Galaxy mega-poll.
UPDATE: Full results here. As in Nielsen, Julia Gillard’s personal ratings have improved: approval up one to 44 per cent and disapproval down three to 38 per cent, but Tony Abbott’s have as well, off the base of what was probably an unflattering result last week: approval up two to 43 per cent, disapproval down three to 46 per cent. Preferred prime minister is essentially unchanged, with both Gillard and Abbott up a point to 50 per cent and 35 per cent respectively. However, the poll confirms a general trend of the Labor vote being slightly “softer” than the Coalition. As well as closing the economy gap from 47-35 to 44-43, Labor has also pulled further ahead as best party to handle climate change, from 33-26 to 35-22, while the Coalition lead on asylum seekers has widened incrementally from 42-29 to 43-29.
[Psephos anecdotal evidence doesn’t constitute fact. If that was the case then the Greens are a shoe-in. I believe the momentum is too strong for Labor to retain Melbourne. A lot of disgruntled former labor-lefties who are not happy about the filter and climate change policies.]
You berate Psephos for arguing anecdotally, then proceed to do so yourself…. ok
Guy, muchos gracias. Can you email it to adam@adam-carr.net? If it’s not too big to email.
getluv,
The greens only get a look-in if the Libs are excluded first AND if the libs preference greens in adequate numbers eg 80% plus.
Its always gonna be a long-shot for Bandt and smart money is looking for any good odds on a ALP victory. Any other view is romantic
Pseph,
send the direct link, I can’t navigate that site.
[2. It’s closer to 53 than 51.]
I suspect as much, but am just frustrated it isn’t coming through the polling.
[Psephos anecdotal evidence doesn’t constitute fact. ]
Since we have no facts, in the form of a local poll, anecdotal evidence will have to do. It’s not definitive, but it’s not worthless either.
[Abbott won’t be able to walk out on the National Press Club to avoid tricky questions, will he.]
Remember Howards last press club address? It was beautiful. Finally his dog whistling moral ambiguity came back and bit him on the arse. And who says there is no such thing as Karma?
confessions
[I suspect as much, but am just frustrated it isn’t coming through the polling.]
The way the last 4 weeks have gone, 52-48 is a very satisfying result on the last poll, for me anyway. All we have now is election day.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tp-cnbvlpEk
Look at Abbott’s body language.
[Poor Sloppy – has he seen his OWN Party’s ads lately ?
In another hotel room watching another ALP hate ad full of bile angst TA…what is their positive agenda for our country? 31 minutes ago via mobile web ]
Frank – just saw that from the last thread and cracked up! what a classic Joe is!
Andrew at 75,
My sources are better for Nielsen than Newspoll. My access to Nielsen is now very reliable.
fession
the trend is your friend
GWV
you da poll man
🙂
Yep Bandt was smart ot say he would do it – lets ALP voters feel ok about voting for him, because they reason it won’t really matter. It’s up to the ALP to convince the voters that it does.
[A lot of disgruntled former labor-lefties who are not happy about the filter and climate change policies.]
Of course that’s true. But the issue is, will there be enough of them? Bowtell is a good candidate and has been pitching to the left to win these votes back. She won’t win all of them, but she might win enough.
[Every poll taken before every election featuring the Greens has over-estimated the Green strength.
I already explained why this is. It’s just a floating protest vote from people who don’t like the major parties. They have no real commitment to the Greens. On election day, many of them will grumble and grouch but then they’ll vote for their usual party]
Psephos – I think that’s right. Any thoughts on whether the ALP or Libs might benefit most from that late drift from the greens?
The Greens get a look in in Melbourne if Labor’s vote drops. In 2007, Tanner had 49.51% at 1st preference stage.
The Greens and Liberals did not have more than him.
The Greens need a swing from the ALP to them.
The odds for Greens in Melbourne are very good – Greens would have won Melbourne last time based on the Senate voting but a very big personal vote for Tanner (about 5% from memory) plus perhaps some tendency to concentrate on Senate for protest votes saved him.
[The way the last 4 weeks have gone, 52-48 is a very satisfying result on the last poll, for me anyway. All we have now is election day.]
Newspoll will put something out closer to the election I would think…
GhostWhoVotes
We have appreciated your efforts throughout the campaign. Thanks
@10
[Yet the advertising geniuses on Gruen Nation thought the Hewson-Costello ad was “ineffective”.]
Shows what ivory-tower-advertising-executives know. I think Hewson’s reaction was more telling, even though he didn’t want to openly admit it, he knew that the ad would hit home – hence he didn’t scream to the media about it, and give it even more attention and free air time; shame about Costello.
[No ALP steady. Tories down 1 on primary.
If the Labor campaign has killed the Tories perception as good economic managers then what exactly is the reason for voting for them?
Oh wait, I know… boats.]
I think there might be a lag here – the adverts, on key message from the ALP and then the costings silliness by the LNP have caused this, but it is has only softened those swing voters who went LNP on the economy. The ALP needs to keep up the assault, with them questioning the LNP on the economy it wont take much to cause them to switch. Except a week of more attacks on the economic front, backed up with more NBN (and even maybe a return of workchoices?) from Labor. Their trump card remains the NBN, which clearly has proved to be far more useful to them then they originally thought – until the LNP broadband trainwreck, it was really a ‘something for the kids’ policy, but now I am sure it’ll take second place behind the economy at tomorrows launch.
gloryconsequence@158
Newspoll will release a poll late Friday Night – THAT is the one to watch.
Ghost-casper
The neilson 53-47 has turned out to have the best ALP figures for the last two weeks
Any goss on whether they think it was a bit overstated for ALP
Wakefield
I hope the greens do win melb
🙂
of course it will onlt be a one term hold
😉
OK – it’s in the ether to you Pseph. It’s 6mb as I said so may take a while to upload. Sadly no fibre to this home yet…
gusface
Hook me up, when should I tune in?
On another note, surely the most important result of this Newspoll is the loss of the libs’ advantage on superior economic management. I’m certain they perceive this as one of their great strengths, and must be completely devastated to entirely lose it as we approach voting day.
Expect to see serious panic from the opposition this week as they realize they have nothing left going for them at all.
So this last set of polls is pretty good.
Whats the schedule for poll releases in the last week leading up to the election?
Will we have to wait for Friday / Friday night for the final, pre-election, pollsters stake their reps on polls??
[Remember Howards last press club address? It was beautiful. Finally his dog whistling moral ambiguity came back and bit him on the arse. And who says there is no such thing as Karma?]
I also remember the young Liberals in the audience booed journalists as they asked Howard questions. It was a jaw dropping moment of the campaign.
Hello All
Back from Old Blighty to an election which seems unreal, even surreal: Cameron-Cleggs’ mobs’ latest PR disaster to Abbott’s fear of a fair fight with Gillard. Not with dying heroes and/or on his terms, he doesn’t want it – at least that seemed deja vous after his 2007 dummy spits.
Bit grim otherwise; but 8 Chemo-free weeks, though they won’t make much difference to the end result, weren’t going to make for an up-beat reintro to Oz. But they were worth every minute.
Can’t promise (?threaten) much interaction; but am reading.
Night all.
phew..turned the computer off for a while so i could actually do something other than wait for this poll to come out. Are their any more likely to come out between now and friday night? I am guessing galaxy would not want to show its face again after the super poll/rooty hill f’ups.
The Greens got 82% of Liberal preferences in Melbourne already.
What they need is 4000 of Tanner’s votes or about 8.6%.
[Whats the schedule for poll releases in the last week leading up to the election?]
I reckon there will be that many polls, many of them really dodgy, in the last week that William will be hard pressed keeping up.
Thanks Guy.
Greetings OzPol Tragic. All the best.
How ironic that the ALP, which has a 50 year history of buggering the Australian economy, and is doing so again as we comment away, is winning the economic argument.
As for Abbott not understanding economics I’m surprised that nobody has pointed out that he actually has a degree in economics. Doesn’t fit the narrative, I guess.
OPT
welcome back
the last act is about to unfold
the bard could not have dreamt of this midwinters nightmare
😉
OPT – hope the election provides a positive for your health.
[Remember Howards last press club address?]
No, I didn’t see it, but it sounds like it was a ripper!
It’ll be interesting to see whether that Greens vote drops off. I don’t think it will all that much this time. I’m hearing too much “both major parties are crap” talk. Plus the Greens really do seem to have positioned themselves as the only party serious on climate change. Those two factors alone will harden up the soft Green vote.
Just working with the rounded off primaries gives me something like 52.1 or 52.2 to Labor. It has to be something around there – though by the sound of it the Greens primaries are running higher than in 2007, so maybe it’s as high as 52.5. 80% Greens preferences to Labor has it as 52.7. But I guess a lot depends on how the ‘Others’ preferences split.
A 38 PV for Labor does look very low. But I guess it’s enough. Most of those primaries would have to be stolen back from the Greens anyway.
169 and 172
Final weekend Newspoll – sorry bout that.
tis better to suffer the sling and arrows……..
Ghost-casper
The neilson 53-47 has turned out to have the best ALP figures for the last two weeks
Any goss on whether they think it was a bit understated for ALP? 😉
William
[I don’t, quite. But my records of pre-election polling don’t support the idea that it happens systematically. I do think it tends to happen though when a minor party’s vote gets engorged by protest voters, who have a tendency to revert to type on polling day.]
How come people who vote Labor or Liberal are NEVER protest votes?
My father, a life long Labor voter and son of an ALP branch president, told me he once voted Liberal as a protest against the Labor leader he didn’t like (Arthur Calwell).
How come he would never be included as a protest vote?
And I agree the Green vote will drop due to their lesser organisation on the day and people who are not first time voters being nervous nellies.
The greens may win Melbourne but it depends on a number of things to happen:
1) Liberal vote not to consolidate or increase too much.
2) ALP to dip below 45%
3) Further demographic change
4) voter dissatisfaction on climate change to manifest
It requires a series of things to happen, but its quite plausible
[How ironic that the ALP, which has a 50 year history of buggering the Australian economy, and is doing so again as we comment away, is winning the economic argument.]
Yeah, cause the Australian economy in March 1983 was a real international dynamo.
THe Unhinged one is unhinged allright 🙂
And notice Young Mick has run away like a whimpering puppy once Newspoll came out ??
Jack L – if we had some economists running the economy who knows how bad the mess would be. I think most economists would happily ditch Abbott.
Cuppa
the NPC in nov 2007 was a classic
howie was lost and knew it
Guy, document received, thanks.
Why is that Greens look at Senate votes to see how they would do in the lower house – making the assumption that the difference is a personal vote.
I have often voted Green in the Senate – depending on the lead candidate – and even Green in the HOR – but the Senate is different. I want a house of review. i want the house of review created by Murphy, Faulkner (and even grudgingly minchin).