Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor leading 52-48, from primary votes of 38 per cent Labor (steady), 41 per cent Coalition (down one) and 14 per cent Greens (up one). There’s also that rare thing – an interesting finding on an attitudinal question, this being a plunge in the Coalition’s lead as “better to manage the economy” from 12 per cent to 1 per cent. Chief suspects: Labor’s Hewson-Costello ads and the Coalition’s costings confusion, much of which would have escaped the Sunday-to-Thursday time frame of the great Galaxy mega-poll.

UPDATE: Full results here. As in Nielsen, Julia Gillard’s personal ratings have improved: approval up one to 44 per cent and disapproval down three to 38 per cent, but Tony Abbott’s have as well, off the base of what was probably an unflattering result last week: approval up two to 43 per cent, disapproval down three to 46 per cent. Preferred prime minister is essentially unchanged, with both Gillard and Abbott up a point to 50 per cent and 35 per cent respectively. However, the poll confirms a general trend of the Labor vote being slightly “softer” than the Coalition. As well as closing the economy gap from 47-35 to 44-43, Labor has also pulled further ahead as best party to handle climate change, from 33-26 to 35-22, while the Coalition lead on asylum seekers has widened incrementally from 42-29 to 43-29.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,228 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  3. PEDRO, I believe governments but not oppositions have won enough seats whilst losing the 2PP. I dont think its ever happened the other way around

  5. [No, I’m looking forward to it. Crunching the numbers and making predictions is the most fun part of election coverage for me. (God, I’m pathetic)]

    Peb – for what it’s worth, I’ve been looking more forward to your seat predictions than any lame Newspoll 😉

  6. [I know nothing about elections really – could we get 52 2pp and still lose like the tories did in SA.]

    Not from a position of incumbency I wouldn’t have thought, its only ever happened to opposition parties.

  9. I would think that a significant proportion of the Green’s 14% would be disaffected Labor voters loding a protest over ETS and the refugee issue. If this is in fact the case there’s not a chance in hell that these people would preference the tories, so there would be a higher than normal flow of preferences to the ALP or perhaps even a first preference ALP vote on election day.

  11. [I know nothing about elections really – could we get 52 2pp and still lose like the tories did in SA.]

    The fact that the House of Reps has 150 seats compared with the SA House of Assembly’s 47 means it’s a lot less likely. But certainly Labor could lose from 51.

  12. Could someone who is a tech-whizz go to this site
    http://www.pjn.gov.ar/
    and try to open the document called
    Resultados del Escrutinio – Definitivo Elecciones 28 de Octubre 2007

    If it won’t open for you, why not?
    If it will open for you, can you download it and send it to me?

  14. See Grogs Gamut, he runs through scenario where the Alp gets 52 but loses.
    It is possible but unlikely, for example the Alp must win Sturt, but loses Eden Monaro.

  16. [We will wait and see]

    Mick S – not suggesting there won’t be a big increase in the Green Primary on the day 😉 I think it’ll drop down to 11.5% at the most (which is a great coup for the Greens).

  17. Mr Squiggle @ 83 – I think there may be more that is cringeworthy about Mr Abbott’s interview with the ABC than meets the eye. The problem is that for lots of viewers, broadband isn’t even thought of as “technology”: it’s just what they use. For modern people, the very fact that he classifies it as “technology” dates him. When I was learning to write, I didn’t think of biros as “technology”, though I still remember people who looked down on them, preferring fountain pens. Even as an 8 year old I recall thinking that their attitudes were laughable.

  19. [Psephos
    Posted Sunday, August 15, 2010 at 10:36 pm | Permalink

    I think they’ll pick up a couple of Senate seats, but not win Melbourne. My Vic sources tell me Cath Bowtell is proving a ripper candidate, and that the sisterhood is working flat out for her, which counts for a lot in Fitzroy and Brunswick. The fact that she has said she supports same-sex marriage has also helped a lot in the inner city areas.]

    I havent seen a word from the Melbourne Labor candidate. There’s lots of greens advertising out and about. The only flyer I’ve seen was from the Lib candidate, which says something about them, seeing as i have a No Junk Mail sticker on my mailbox. It’ll be a tight race, but i think the Greens might get over the line this election.

  24. With the high level of disatisfaction with both leaders its hard to see why the Greens vote wont hold up and also produce a very good Senate result.

  28. Guy #109
    Absolutely! Every poll taken before every election featuring the Greens has over-estimated the Green strength. BTW I don’t think it’s the polls fault. I think it’s more about the punters telling the pollsters one thing and then doing another in the booth (i.e voting for Labor).

  29. [Dont forget Q&A]

    I don’t rate this show as a significant vent.

    The significant events are 7.30 Report where I expect Abbott to stumble and the Press Club where I expect him to crash head first into several of the hurdles. It was this event (in the aftermath of the Lindsay leaflet scandal admittedly) when Howard was found most wanting. No, maybe I got that wrong, wasn’t Howard roasted and char grilled by Red Kerry in the last week in 2007?

    Hell, it was a very bad week for Liberals and I expect this week to be a repeat.

    I just wish Labor’s campaigning on the economy had started back in February.

  31. Green candidate said he will preference to Labor if Parliament is hung:

    Yes – if he didn’t the Greens vote would collapse to about 0.5%

    In my eg – Bandt doesn’t win (Antony’s calculator can’t do Greens winning Melb, unless I’m missing something).

  32. Swinging voters are just not that stupid.

    Hewson calling the nut innumerate, Cossie saying he’s a dope on economis and then not wanting to debate Julia on the economy.

    Also surely, regardless of which party you may slightly lean towards, you can’t NOT vote for the NBN.

  34. confessions

    [Having said that, I expected a 53-47 Newspoll tonight.]

    1. Don’t get greedy 😉

    2. It’s closer to 53 than 51.

  35. [Every poll taken before every election featuring the Greens has over-estimated the Green strength. ]

    I already explained why this is. It’s just a floating protest vote from people who don’t like the major parties. They have no real commitment to the Greens. On election day, many of them will grumble and grouch but then they’ll vote for their usual party.

  37. 121: Bit silly of Bandt to shatter the Green’s negotiating position in government formation talks in the case of a hung parliament.

  38. What is the National Press Club event? First time I heard of it?

    For me, there is Q&A, 7:30 report, and Abbott’s Town Hall BrisVegas Regardless that loom as events this week

  39. @Psephos anecdotal evidence doesn’t constitute fact. If that was the case then the Greens are a shoe-in. I believe the momentum is too strong for Labor to retain Melbourne. A lot of disgruntled former labor-lefties who are not happy about the filter and climate change policies.

    I think if the Greens can win Melbourne, a lot of other Labor metropolitan seats will be in sight for the Greens in future. Pilbersek should be on notice.

  40. [If Labor polls 52% of the 2PV, Labor will win. This is a rock-solid, iron-clad guarantee]

    I believe that’s a rock solid 52 too – no rounding up – if anything rounding down.

  41. [If Labor polls 52% of the 2PV, Labor will win. This is a rock-solid, iron-clad guarantee.]

    If Labor get 52% of the 2PP I don’t even think it will be close.

  42. Pseph, I have that document – it’s a PDF, 6mb so perhaps that’s why it wasn’t downloading for you (took a while). What do you want me to do with the file?

  43. [I’m predicting he will get the easiest of rides, similar to his friendly ‘reception’ at Rooted Hill.]

    Not if the couple of questions i sent in get asked the bugger wont!!!

  44. Thanks William – mmm – not much room for error here – I would have liked 53. Labor are still to short should be 1/2 no wonder the smart money crunched 1.60.

  48. Psephos

    I have the document open. Not sure what type it is and whether it can be saved tho.

    Shall i try the email on your site?

  49. [It’s hard to botch a QANDA style format coz you can’t keep digging a hole for very long.]

    Hard working, super fit bloke like Tone can dig pretty fast mate. 🙂

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