The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor leading 52-48, from primary votes of 38 per cent Labor (steady), 41 per cent Coalition (down one) and 14 per cent Greens (up one). There’s also that rare thing – an interesting finding on an attitudinal question, this being a plunge in the Coalition’s lead as “better to manage the economy” from 12 per cent to 1 per cent. Chief suspects: Labor’s Hewson-Costello ads and the Coalition’s costings confusion, much of which would have escaped the Sunday-to-Thursday time frame of the great Galaxy mega-poll.
UPDATE: Full results here. As in Nielsen, Julia Gillard’s personal ratings have improved: approval up one to 44 per cent and disapproval down three to 38 per cent, but Tony Abbott’s have as well, off the base of what was probably an unflattering result last week: approval up two to 43 per cent, disapproval down three to 46 per cent. Preferred prime minister is essentially unchanged, with both Gillard and Abbott up a point to 50 per cent and 35 per cent respectively. However, the poll confirms a general trend of the Labor vote being slightly “softer” than the Coalition. As well as closing the economy gap from 47-35 to 44-43, Labor has also pulled further ahead as best party to handle climate change, from 33-26 to 35-22, while the Coalition lead on asylum seekers has widened incrementally from 42-29 to 43-29.
Interesting headline: Labor attacks breach Tony Abbott’s defences
Labor has reduced better able to handle the economy margin from 12 to 1%
ha ha ha ha ha, only 5
This means down on primary for ALP ?
TSOP
The weelsh were and are considered the black sheep of the british isles
Its cos we have kulta
Damn. I was looking forward to another conspiracy night.
[TSOP
What time tomorrow will you have your new predictions?
No pressure!!!]
Victoria, probably tomorrow evening. Got a busy day ahead of me tomorrow.
That’s not good for the Libs.
[The latest Newspoll found that Labor had almost drawn level with the Coalition on the question of which party would manage the economy better, cutting the 12-percentage-point lead the Coalition held three weeks ago to just one point.]
Brisoz, no. It was 38 last week too.
primaries up one for Labor, down one for the coalition, up one for the Greens.
Be interesting to know if the 2PP is closer to 51.5 or 52.5!
Mithrandir from previous thread:
[“The latest Newspoll found that Labor had almost drawn level with the Coalition on the question of which party would manage the economy better, cutting the 12-percentage-point lead the Coalition held three weeks ago to just one point.”
Amazing what advertising can do.]
Yet the advertising geniuses on Gruen Nation thought the Hewson-Costello ad was “ineffective”.
Dennis Shanahan
[The Gillard government still holds a narrow lead in national polling – 52 to 48 per cent on two-party-preferred terms – enough to scrape home on Saturday.]
52-48 = Scrape home?
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/labor-attacks-breach-tony-abbotts-defences/story-fn59niix-1225905600144
Bo brisoz up 1, LNP down 1. No change in 2PP so on the good side of 52 I reckon
Such an enormous Green vote. My understanding is that the Green vote always shows higher in the polls than on polling day. William, is there any hard data to show average pre-election poll numbers for the Greens compared to actual election results from past elections? Do we expect that 14% to hold up?
[This means down on primary for ALP ?]
No ALP steady. Tories down 1 on primary.
If the Labor campaign has killed the Tories perception as good economic managers then what exactly is the reason for voting for them?
Oh wait, I know… boats.
[Labor has reduced better able to handle the economy margin from 12 to 1%]
Oh dear!
But what about the debt and the boats? 😉
Rod
closer to 54, I reckon
🙂
Newspoll Primary Votes: ALP 38 (+1) LNP 41 (-1) GRN 14 (+1) #ausvotes
Nate, 51/49 might be a ‘scrape home’ but 52/48 probably wouldn’t be. We’ll see though. Still a whole week to go (almost).
Labor primary ISQ
Lib down 1%
Green up 1%
[Yet the advertising geniuses on Gruen Nation thought the Hewson-Costello ad was “ineffective”.]
This was the strangest bit of commentary I have seen.
William, it was simply the best ad of the campaign. Given the economic management results here, they should give it priority in the next few days. Stuff the blue collar worker one
That primary vote is a bit of a worry.
TSOP
Seriously, if you are too busy don’t worry about it.
The sub 40 PV figure for ALP is still a bit of a worry. Has Newspoll distributed preferences on the sample’s expressed preferences or from last election?
The Fibs are stuck on at the absolute best primary of 42. That will fail to get them home.
According to the markets, 52/48 is rock solid 😉
[Yet the advertising geniuses on Gruen Nation thought the Hewson-Costello ad was “ineffective”.]
I refuse to allow you to use the word “genius”, even in sarcasm, to describe any group in which Todd Sampson falls.
wrong Dio its up 1%
But seriously though, if the libs have lost their edge on the economy, they are gorrne
[Such an enormous Green vote. My understanding is that the Green vote always shows higher in the polls than on polling day. William, is there any hard data to show average pre-election poll numbers for the Greens compared to actual election results from past elections? Do we expect that 14% to hold up?]
Guy, in fact the Green vote was underestimated in 2007. I believe Newspoll has changed their methodology now to ‘correct’ this.
ltep please maintain your stance that the libs will get up.
Hewson-Costello ad
Nothing quite as effective as getting shafted by your own side.
Isn’t the mastermind behind Kevin07 one of the Gruen panelists now? Him and Hewson (He’s funny these days!) are what I look forward to in the show
It must be my return. Jules will murder Abbott in this last week, I will make sure of that.
[William, it was simply the best ad of the campaign. Given the economic management results here, they should give it priority in the next few days. Stuff the blue collar worker one]
You aren’t a fan of Whinging Wally?
[TSOP
Seriously, if you are too busy don’t worry about it.]
No, I’m looking forward to it. Crunching the numbers and making predictions is the most fun part of election coverage for me. (God, I’m pathetic)
I cant see Abbott winning the lion’s share of undecideds to get over the line. If the economy is equal, why change , especially to Abbott??
New Monk ad: All about boats…
It is impossible for the Liberals to win with a PV stuck at 41%. Where can they pick up the preferences they need to achieve a majority? The facts are, they cannot.
Dave, it was my prediction and I’ll stick to it. No backing away now.
14% Greens? That will not hold on polling day.
Good news here.
NBN (very strong issue in trad conservative heartland), a belief in Climate change science (and other new fangled theories like evolution), the fact that the economy has been neutralised and made an issue more by Abuts inability to compete on this issue, Abuts colorful past, a sound economy with real plans for investment (mining tax), and a preferred PM rating, and a great candidate in the ranga queen, will see Labor consolidate a winning lead in the final week.
Why was everyone so worried about Rudd’s appearance on Channel 7 earlier tonight?
It was an interview about the benefits of organ donation, which Kevin was the beneficiary of some years ago.
All very advantageous to Labor and the Gillard campaign, I’d have thought. 😉
As for Latham – I didn’t watch, and I don’t care what that idiot had to say. 😀
pinko, his lost the economy. all he has is boats
This poll shows economic advertisements and announcements have been extremely effective.
I’ve got a feeling that both parties will ignore the 2 party preferred and look specifically at this economy figure.
Here’s some numbers for you Mick:
As I demonstrated the other night, in federal elections the seats fall fairly uniformly in accordance with the swing, with local anomalies cancelling out. In 2007 the Labor 2PV was 52.7% Now we have a poll putting it at 52% (rounded). So the swing is between zero and 1%. A 1% uniform swing would cost Labor 11 seats and leave us with 79. That is the UPPER limit of the swing on this poll. The probable actual result would be a net loss of maybe five or six.
In the end, it has always been, it’s the economy, stupid.
A least 2 more hurdles for Abbott
– 7.30 Report
– the National Press Club
[I cant see Abbott winning the lion’s share of undecideds to get over the line.]
Not the remotest possibility.
[No, I’m looking forward to it. Crunching the numbers and making predictions is the most fun part of election coverage for me. (God, I’m pathetic)]
No you’re not Pebbles – you’re a gem.
Night Bludgers.
And one would expect a drift to the govt effect in the final week of the campaign.
Thats all I ask 🙂