Morning marginals madness

Morning my time, anyway. Polling action from overnight:

Roy Morgan has targeted three widely spread electorates with small sample polls of about 300 respondents each, with margins of error approaching 6 per cent. These show the Liberals with a 3.1 per cent lead in Macquarie (a 3.2 per cent swing) and the Liberal National Party with a 2.5 per cent lead in Leichhardt (a 6.6 per cent swing), while in the long-forgotten Perth seat of Brand Labor retains a lead of 53-47, a swing against them of 3.1 per cent. The poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday evenings.

• Via Ross Hart in comments, we learn of a poll by Tasmanian outfit EMRS of that state’s marginal seats of Bass and Braddon which has both “safe” for Labor. Only figures from Bass are offered, which after exclusion of non-respondents are 43 per cent Labor, 34 per cent Liberal and 20 per cent Greens (who have a history of doing unduly well in EMRS polls), for a Labor two-party vote of 57 per cent and a swing in their favour of 6 per cent. UPDATE: More at the Launceston Examiner. Of Braddon we are told Labor is on 40 per cent and the Greens on 13 per cent, and I believe this is without distribution of the undecided.

• The Tweed Daily News/Northern Star has produced a poll of 400 respondents in the NSW north coast seat of Richmond, which appears to have been conducted in-house and should thus be treated with caution. Certainly it suffers a problem common to such polls: an undecided rate of 24 per cent, presumably resulting from a failure to twist respondents’ arms with a follow-up “leaning towards” question. For what it’s worth, the results show Labor in trouble: primary votes without exclusion of the undecided are 30 per cent for Labor incumbent Justine Elliot, 26 per cent for Liberal challenger Joan van Lieshout, 9 per cent for Nationals and 10 per cent for the Greens. If nothing else the poll suggests the Nationals are no longer competitive in the seat that was once home to the Anthony dynasty.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,378 comments on “Morning marginals madness”

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  1. [I’m grateful to Mick for confirming my view that all Liberals, with the exception of my immediate relatives, are obnoxious pricks.]

    You don’t have to be a prick to be a Liberal, but it bloody helps.

  2. The latest Newspoll survey, taken exclusively for The Australian from Friday to Sunday, was unchanged on a two-party-preferred basis, with Labor four points ahead.

    The primary vote was virtually unchanged as well, with Labor trailing the Coalition 38 per cent to 41 per cent, while the Greens were on 14 per cent.

  3. The latest Newspoll found that Labor had almost drawn level with the Coalition on the question of which party would manage the economy better, cutting the 12-percentage-point lead the Coalition held three weeks ago to just one point.

  4. 1277 Most of it rubbish.Betting is a very accurate guide to the probability of an event occuring if you crunch the numbers over thousands of events – but the further away from the event the less accurate it becomes.By next Saturday the market on this election may look vastly different to the current one.
    Secondly the market is not saying Abbott can’t win only that he is much less likely to do so than Labor.The fact that no short price favourite has lost a federal election before means nothing eventually it will happen.

  5. Yeah, no, you are right. My posts are trite, boring and very troll-like. Other posts have been great, groovy and accurately reflecting the Zeitgeist in here.

    I would behave if I could get some numbers..

  6. [It has succeeded in wiping out the Coalition’s election lead on economic management as Julia Gillard prepares to launch a last-week assault on the Liberal leader over the economy]

    the most crtical line – It is the economy stupid.

  7. Looks like Gillard’s campaigning on the economy has been cutting through then. Will sour Mick Wilkinson’s milk just that little bit more.

  8. [Don’t forget the Bradley (female) effect]

    I would like to see some evidence that there is a “female bradley effect” before I include it as a factor.

  9. [The latest Newspoll found that Labor had almost drawn level with the Coalition on the question of which party would manage the economy better, cutting the 12-percentage-point lead the Coalition held three weeks ago to just one point.]

    Amazing what advertising can do.

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