Morning marginals madness

Morning my time, anyway. Polling action from overnight:

Roy Morgan has targeted three widely spread electorates with small sample polls of about 300 respondents each, with margins of error approaching 6 per cent. These show the Liberals with a 3.1 per cent lead in Macquarie (a 3.2 per cent swing) and the Liberal National Party with a 2.5 per cent lead in Leichhardt (a 6.6 per cent swing), while in the long-forgotten Perth seat of Brand Labor retains a lead of 53-47, a swing against them of 3.1 per cent. The poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday evenings.

• Via Ross Hart in comments, we learn of a poll by Tasmanian outfit EMRS of that state’s marginal seats of Bass and Braddon which has both “safe” for Labor. Only figures from Bass are offered, which after exclusion of non-respondents are 43 per cent Labor, 34 per cent Liberal and 20 per cent Greens (who have a history of doing unduly well in EMRS polls), for a Labor two-party vote of 57 per cent and a swing in their favour of 6 per cent. UPDATE: More at the Launceston Examiner. Of Braddon we are told Labor is on 40 per cent and the Greens on 13 per cent, and I believe this is without distribution of the undecided.

• The Tweed Daily News/Northern Star has produced a poll of 400 respondents in the NSW north coast seat of Richmond, which appears to have been conducted in-house and should thus be treated with caution. Certainly it suffers a problem common to such polls: an undecided rate of 24 per cent, presumably resulting from a failure to twist respondents’ arms with a follow-up “leaning towards” question. For what it’s worth, the results show Labor in trouble: primary votes without exclusion of the undecided are 30 per cent for Labor incumbent Justine Elliot, 26 per cent for Liberal challenger Joan van Lieshout, 9 per cent for Nationals and 10 per cent for the Greens. If nothing else the poll suggests the Nationals are no longer competitive in the seat that was once home to the Anthony dynasty.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,378 comments on “Morning marginals madness”

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  1. Oscar

    [You need to read their so called “endorsements” a little more closely]

    I can assure you I didn’t read a single word they wrote. I just looked at who bludgers had said was endorsed. Editorials are inevitably poorly written and badly reasoned. I doubt anyone reads them.

  2. The joke of the rooty hill gig is that rooty hill has and always will vote labor.

    It has a very high level of social disadvantage, high unemployment, high levels of ESL, very large numbers of extremely disadvantaged aboriginals and heaps of public housing.

    If JG gets a swing against her here then the Libs have wasted their campaign.

    But if you are ever down that way go to Maggies Lebanese Pizza in Old Mt Druitt. its tops.

  3. Well I don’t know what to make of this flurry of marginal polls – in aggregate they do suggest the coalition can get the swings they need to bag enough seats. However the national 2pp vote and general trend of the campain suggests the ALP will hold on.

    If the next Newspoll (tonight?) shows anything less that a 51/49 tpp split to the ALP I think the betting market will start to get a some money on Abbott.

  4. victoria,
    [blue-green

    I know that the forum was only shown through Sky Channel. The point I am trying to make is that it continues to have been more important to Sydneysiders than anyone else.]

    They made sure they got maximum value for it. They ran it about six times a day for two days on A-Pac.

  5. Abbott’s performance at the second town hall:

    Announcer: “Ladies and gentlemennnn. Give a big round of applause to the next Prime Minister of Australia, Tonnnnnnyyyyy ABbbbbbbbotttttt!”
    *”Get Ready for This” starts playing. There’s thunderous applause and standing ovation for minutes*
    Tony: “Hello everyone. I am here to serve you!!! I have bought ice creams for everyone! Tell me, my people, what’s on your minds?”
    *A person stands up, it is a young Liberal with a fake moustache*
    Audience member: “Mr Prime… oops Abbott (audience chuckles). You have vowed to stop the boats and stop wasteful spending and bring Australia back on track. How does it feel to know you’re just days away from being PM?”
    Tony: “Now, I haven’t won it yet. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves”
    Audience member: “Wow. So humble too!”
    *audience erupts into thunderous applause*

  6. William,

    On the tweed poll. I reckon many of those nat supporters in the poll would second preference the ALP over the Libs. Cow cockies cant stand those suited up Liberal twerps (or words to that effect).

  7. [Agree – that looks like a very risky move. Maybe confirmation that Labor’s internal policy is similar to Galaxy]

    Or maybe it’s to show that Gillard isn’t scared and doesn’t shy away from such things. Remember, it was Abbott who demanded it, she’s accepting and showing she is not gutless. Unlike Abbott who is too scared to have another debate!

  8. [Agree – that looks like a very risky move. Maybe confirmation that Labor’s internal policy is similar to Galaxy]

    Or maybe it’s to show that Gillard isn’t scared and doesn’t shy away from such things. Remember, it was Abbott who demanded it, she’s accepting and showing she is not gutless. Unlike Abbott who is too scared to have another debate!

  9. [Diogenes@268……..the Rooty Hill straw poll was: Julia 59 / Rabbott 71 / Undecided 70……Hardly a ringing endorsement of Rabbott…..]

    Don’t you people ever read before commenting!

    That’s exactly my point!! If Galaxy had rorted the “undecideds” to fill the Rooty hall with Lib voters, then it would have been a lot more in Abbott’s favor.

  10. Diogenes

    I think you are not getting the gist of what everyone is saying about rooted hill.
    That it was organised to get maximum positive feedback for Abbott. The reality of it all doesn’t matter, but the perception that the whole event projected a win for him.

  11. The fact about the first one is Abbott resorted to a gimmick was was reported as masterful. I know if Gillard had tried that it would’ve been framed as “gimmicky” and “desperate”

  12. I have put together the state-by-state swings and national swings of the four main
    polls this weekend along with some betting odds and compiled a table of
    all the seats in play.

    http://dr–good.blogspot.com/

    This shows about 25 seats which have conflicting predictions from these
    various sources.

    If you go with majority predictions from the 5 sources (bets plus four polls)
    then you give 79 seats to the ALP not including Melbourne.

  13. TSOP

    Abbott is gimmicky. Just look at his sloganeering, and acting as if he is a humble man.

    He is an arrogant so and so really. I am surprised that he can fool anyone really.

  14. [Don’t you people ever read before commenting!

    That’s exactly my point!! If Galaxy had rorted the “undecideds” to fill the Rooty hall with Lib voters, then it would have been a lot more in Abbott’s favor]

    And as I was saying, a swinging voter in rooty hill is most likely a rusted on Liberal voter who isnt yet settled on Tony.

    The 2PP result from the booths in rooty hill in the 2007 election

    [Rooty Hill East 64.95% ALP
    Rooty Hill North 71.90% ALP
    Rooty Hill South 71.09% ALP]

  15. Victoria,

    [What is the vibe in Qld today?]

    You’d hardly know there was a Federal election on. It’s the quietest one I can remember.

  16. Great move by Gillard on the RSL showdown.

    It says all the right things and gives a great contrast to Abbott’s debate refusal a couple of weeks ago.

  17. [I think you are not getting the gist of what everyone is saying about rooted hill.]

    If it was a great big conspiracy to make Abbott look great and the audience was all Libs planted by Galaxy asking biased questions, they would have voted far more in favor of Abbott than 71-59.

  18. Yeah I don’t think alot of people actually care about this election, until the day of the election I think.

    At least in QLD.

  19. [TSOP, And with a genuine live cross from ABC 24 – no hitches or glitches or delays. ]

    ABC 24 has been the biggest waste of money and bandwidth of all time IMO.

    A huge fail and probably just an experiment for the duration of the election campaign & aftermath to help out the Libs on behalf of the ABC Management & Board.

    A big fail!

  20. scorpio/brisoz

    In some ways that could be in Labor’s favour. If there really was a mood for change, there would be more activity around the place. Don’t you think?

  21. [He agreed to a town hall style meeting “on the condition the first half is a debate between the leaders on the economy, followed by questions from the audience in the second half, with both leaders on the stage at the same time”.

    “That would end your candidate’s cowardly avoidance of the debate on the economy ..,” Mr Bitar wrote.]

    Fighting words from Bitar at last

  22. [That’s exactly my point!! If Galaxy had rorted the “undecideds” to fill the Rooty hall with Lib voters, then it would have been a lot more in Abbott’s favor.]

    Fair enough.

    And it’s not just about the whole audience selection, it’s about the selection of questioners.

    *lunch*

  23. [It says all the right things and gives a great contrast to Abbott’s debate refusal a couple of weeks ago.]

    Yup. I certainly hope she hammers that one home. Abbott is gutless. He only likes playing where he’s comfortable. His refusal to be in uncomfortable situations (and his buckling under pressure) just demonstrates that he is not appropriate for the top job.

  24. Looks like it’s in BrisVegas.

    [SKY News and The Courier-Mail are offering to host a second town hall-style leaders’ forum in Brisbane.]

  25. TSOP#32

    So true.

    Isn’t Abbott the one who runs away from pressers as soon as the questions get a little difficult?

    Isn’t he the one who can’t manage questions from Red?

    Isn’t he the one who can’t manage questions from Neil Mitchell (3aw) (a liberal partisan hack)?

    How can he lead the country?

  26. Diogenes,

    [That’s exactly my point!! If Galaxy had rorted the “undecideds” to fill the Rooty hall with Lib voters, then it would have been a lot more in Abbott’s favor.]

    The 70 “ubdecideds” that didn’t vote were probably instructed by News Ltd & Sky not to vote so as to not skew the result to an unrealistic figure.

    Most of them left before Abbott came on, so something was fishy in regard to that 70!

  27. This time it will be fed onto free-to-air.

    [The forum was aired on Sky News, but the pay-TV broadcaster said today it would make its feed from a second forum available to free-to-air networks.]

    I still haven’t met a single person who watched the last one in SA (I’m not counting you sickos!)

  28. [How can he lead the country?]

    Imagine a situation where a foreign government is annoyed with us, and their FM is here and is using heated language. Do we really want someone who is likely to duck out of the room and hide in the toilet until the meeting is over?

  29. [Labor to provide an unbiased group of undecideds bused in from around Australia]

    I think the ‘undecideds’ would give a different results as opposed to the ‘couldnt give a sh-ts’.

    I think we are now dealing with the latter not the former.

  30. [SKY News and The Courier-Mail are offering to host a second town hall-style leaders’ forum in Brisbane.]

    The audience to be issued with boxing gloves upon entry to the venue! 😉

  31. [Labor to provide an unbiased group of undecideds bused in from around Australia.]
    Maybe Rudd can hand pick the audience.

  32. [Or maybe it’s to show that Gillard isn’t scared and doesn’t shy away from such things. Remember, it was Abbott who demanded it, she’s accepting and showing she is not gutless. Unlike Abbott who is too scared to have another debate!]

    TSOP, she would only entertain the idea if she thought Labor weren’t travelling all that well. Otherwise the risk wouldn’t be worth taking.

  33. [On debt etc.
    What are the govt assets at the moment. If JG says it like someone earning $100,000 a year borrowing $6000.
    Maybe its a better analogy if its like someone who owns a billion dollar estate and earns $100,000 per year borrowing $6,000.]

    What about someone on $127,000 a year borrowing $700,000, can’t even service the interest on the debt? Thats about 120 times what JG is talking about.

    What does that say about their grasp of finance and economics?

  34. Or alternative baseball bats! 😉

    Courtesy of The Courier Mail which had them as their front page feature yesterday! 😉

  35. [Lets all agree that rooted hill was rorted and leave it at that.]

    Everyone is missing the greater point that Rooty Hill is not in a marginal seat and there has hardly ever been swinging voters there anyway. They always vote Labor.

  36. [TSOP, she would only entertain the idea if she thought Labor weren’t travelling all that well. Otherwise the risk wouldn’t be worth taking.]

    I disagree. She caught a lot of crap for wanting a debate when her numbers were down, with people suggesting that if they go back up again, she’ll drop the idea. It had been suggested by many that if she took the lead she should definitely still push for a debate and accept any desperate challenge Abbott throws down.

    Also, it was Abbott who made the offer, not her.

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