Morning marginals madness

Morning my time, anyway. Polling action from overnight:

• Roy Morgan has targeted three widely spread electorates with small sample polls of about 300 respondents each, with margins of error approaching 6 per cent. These show the Liberals with a 3.1 per cent lead in Macquarie (a 3.2 per cent swing) and the Liberal National Party with a 2.5 per cent lead in Leichhardt (a 6.6 per cent swing), while in the long-forgotten Perth seat of Brand Labor retains a lead of 53-47, a swing against them of 3.1 per cent. The poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday evenings.

• Via Ross Hart in comments, we learn of a poll by Tasmanian outfit EMRS of that state’s marginal seats of Bass and Braddon which has both “safe” for Labor. Only figures from Bass are offered, which after exclusion of non-respondents are 43 per cent Labor, 34 per cent Liberal and 20 per cent Greens (who have a history of doing unduly well in EMRS polls), for a Labor two-party vote of 57 per cent and a swing in their favour of 6 per cent. UPDATE: More at the Launceston Examiner. Of Braddon we are told Labor is on 40 per cent and the Greens on 13 per cent, and I believe this is without distribution of the undecided.

• The Tweed Daily News/Northern Star has produced a poll of 400 respondents in the NSW north coast seat of Richmond, which appears to have been conducted in-house and should thus be treated with caution. Certainly it suffers a problem common to such polls: an undecided rate of 24 per cent, presumably resulting from a failure to twist respondents’ arms with a follow-up “leaning towards” question. For what it’s worth, the results show Labor in trouble: primary votes without exclusion of the undecided are 30 per cent for Labor incumbent Justine Elliot, 26 per cent for Liberal challenger Joan van Lieshout, 9 per cent for Nationals and 10 per cent for the Greens. If nothing else the poll suggests the Nationals are no longer competitive in the seat that was once home to the Anthony dynasty.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,378 comments on “Morning marginals madness”

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  1. internal policy is similar to Galaxy

    [Or maybe it’s to show that Gillard isn’t scared and doesn’t shy away from such things. Remember, it was Abbott who demanded it, she’s accepting and showing she is not gutless. Unlike Abbott who is too scared to have another debate!]

    i think woman think on their feet, she is not going to be put off by his antics
    this time it will be by the rules. and isnt there other media involved
    ]

  2. From one sicko to another sicko 😉

    Jules is said to want the debate to eb held with both leaders on stage at the same time and with the first part focussed on the economy.

    People seem to forget that Jules is at her best when she needs to defend her position.

    We could have this in Werribee or maybe Melton now that could be hairy.

  3. [What about someone on $127,000 a year borrowing $700,000, can’t even service the interest on the debt? Thats about 120 times what JG is talking about.

    What does that say about their grasp of finance and economics?]

    Poor Tone, living hand to mouth.

  5. Just saw the new ALP TV ad again. Stimulus that kept my blokes in work. Nah Mr Abbott you wont get my vote.

    Best this campaign.

  6. SKY News and The Courier-Mail are offering to host a second town hall-style leaders’ forum in Brisbane.

    Why does it always have to be a News Ltd gig? Where’s the ABC when they’re needed?

    A dual Q&A would be ideal.

  9. @Diogenes 25,

    Not really – the Libs obviously couldn’t rort it to the extent that it became simply laughable.

    About as far as they could go would be to set up unflattering lighting and stagecraft for Gillard, make Gillard go fist and then give Abbott a preview of her answers, and stack the audience by including a few young libs to ask Gillard tough questions, and ask Abbott “dorothy dixers”.

    All of these they did, and all of these things were picked up and commented on by many independent commentators (as well as us biased bloggers).

    I watched most (not all) of both of them, and Gillards answers to hostile questions were polite and coherent, while Abbotts answers to insipid questions were incoherent waffle. I guess Abbott realized very few would actually watch the show itself – most people would rely on the media reporting to see how things went.

    Even so Gillard came out surprisingly well. In a real debate, with all the lead-up argy-bargy ensuring that lots of people watched, and broadcast in prime time on a real station, Abbott would fold up like an origami rabbit.

  11. …”Don’t you people ever read before commenting!…..

    That’s exactly my point!! If Galaxy had rorted the “undecideds” to fill the Rooty hall with Lib voters, then it would have been a lot more in Abbott’s favor…….”

    I got you’re point, Diogenes@13……..but you are not getting mine, buddy…

    The true result shows that Rabbott can’t even win over his own Lib leaning undecided voters…….bring on a re-match. Julia will wipe the floor with him….

  13. [Also, it was Abbott who made the offer, not her.]

    Exactly my point TSOP. Why do you think he’s making the offer? If the format is similar to the last, he thinks he will score points.

  14. Sydney Morning Herald headline: Labor backs poll showing coalition win.

    It’s only a headline, William. It doesn’t mean it’s true.

  15. [I say decide it in a boxing ring; Abbott vs Gillard. The undecideds can do the point scoring.]

    That’d be an obvious mismatch …

    Maybe a pillow-fight, instead ?

  16. BB
    [Why does it always have to be a News Ltd gig? Where’s the ABC when they’re needed?]
    Exactly

    National broadcaster?! Hummph

  17. [KY News and The Courier-Mail are offering to host a second town hall-style leaders’ forum in Brisbane.]

    It should be the ABC or nothing. Murdoch mob can’t be trusted to run anything fairly.

  18. [Posted Sunday, August 15, 2010 at 1:33 pm | Permalink
    Juia says she will be at Ch7 at 6.30 today, to debate the econom

    dont you remember kochie wanted this weeks ago so is this with tone

  19. From Williams Article:

    [Mr Catsaras, a strategic marketing consultant and polling analyst, described the findings as “a bit misleading”.

    The Newspoll of marginal seats, published in The Australian newspaper on Saturday, was far more instructive of what was happening in the electorate, he said.

    That poll showed Labor losing three or four seats in Queensland and about the same in NSW.

    “That sounds more realistic than what’s being reported this morning,” Mr Catsaras said.]

    Just the perfect headline for JG. Using an old poll to scare the horses against a protest vote.

  21. [Exactly my point TSOP. Why do you think he’s making the offer? If the format is similar to the last, he thinks he will score points.]

    Something he would not need to do if he were leading.

    Also, it sets Gillard up as the underdog.

  22. @William 54

    I love this bit …
    [ The coalition has used a Treasury leak as the excuse for not meeting last’s Friday deadline.

    Instead it will have its promises costed by a “respected, reputable, well-known” accounting firm that had been “very carefully” chosen, Mr Abbott said. ]

    If the Libs need help on “very carefully” choosing their accounting firm, perhaps Galaxy would be willing to lend them a hand?

    Or they could abide by their own “charter of budget honesty” and use the Treasury. After all, even if Treasury leak the results – isn’t that kind of the point?

  23. I think from the behaviour of both sides their internal polling shows that it’s too close to call. If either side were clearly in front these risks wouldn’t be being taken.

  24. victoria,

    [scorpio/brisoz

    In some ways that could be in Labor’s favour. If there really was a mood for change, there would be more activity around the place. Don’t you think? ]

    To be honest I have absolutely no idea except to think that the media here especially, as well as Labor & the LNP, has not worked out how to deal with the overthrow of the local born & bred ex PM.

    It’s had a numbing effect right across the spectrum here & neither of the Parties or media know how to counter it or how any attempt to cash in on & benefit/reduce the effect, will play out so are leaving it well alone and just barely going through the minimum expected activity of a campaign.

  26. [Just the perfect headline for JG. Using an old poll to scare the horses against a protest vote.]

    Well the fact that Labor are bumping it suggests to me that’s probably true.

    Though part of me worries about the Bandwagon effect.

    Either way, this mornings headlines gave the Libs that gasp of oxygen they desperately needed to stay alive in the last week.

  27. [Something he would not need to do if he were leading.

    Also, it sets Gillard up as the underdog.]

    I don’t agree in this instance. I think he sees this as a fairly low risk format for him and will serve to solidify his standing as an alternative PM.

  28. [Most of them left before Abbott came on, so something was fishy in regard to that 70!]
    Perhaps they were only required for the first half because they had been traditional Labor voters in the past. Remember Bob Ellis said that some were disqualified from participating on the grounds they had been traditional ALP.

  29. A very smart Chris Joye on the Broadband

    [Interestingly, both those on the centre and left of the political divide, who think that government should be leveraging up its balance-sheet and investing in much more infrastructure, which is a view I subscribe to, and those on the centre-right who question whether the NBN is, in fact, a ‘public good’ that deserves any government funding at all, should have questions about this project.

    For the centrists, many opportunity costs loom large. The best-case $43 billion price tag for the NBN could be invested in a range of much more tangible and certain projects that yield arguably higher benefits. For example, this capital could help address the public transport crisis by funding 230km of new metro railway lines—equivalent to 16.5 times the size of the Parramatta to Epping rail link—based on the latter’s costing. It could go a long way to resolving the hospitals crisis by delivering 14,600 new beds (or 43 major hospitals) based on the price of the latest Royal Childrens Hospital in Melbourne. Or it could eradicate homelessness by building 107,500 new homes worth $400,000 each to take the circa 105,000 people without shelter today off the streets.]

    Socrates, how much energy investment could you lever with that much public money?

  30. [I think from the behaviour of both sides their internal polling shows that it’s too close to call. If either side were clearly in front these risks wouldn’t be being taken.]

    Correct.

  32. Aaaaah……………………I love this stuff! Labor know they’ve got it in the bag. The Libs know that Labor have got it in the bag, too.

    So, Labor’s focus this week is not to lose the fish as they’re reeling it in. hence the SMH story quoting that Labor agrees that if this poll (Galaxy) was played out next Saturday, Tony’s PM. Pure gold! Keet it up Labor. Love ya work!

  33. [I think from the behaviour of both sides their internal polling shows that it’s too close to call. If either side were clearly in front these risks wouldn’t be being taken.]

    ltep, agree with you there. It really does feel like it could go either way, perhaps based on a stuff-up from either side in the last week.

  34. [Remember Bob Ellis said that some were disqualified from participating on the grounds they had been traditional ALP.]

    Well as I have been saying, that only leaves the remainder 30% Lib voters.

  35. Julia is a *conviction politician* who never backs down from a fight, so matter how difficult!

    Cmon, you know you want to believe “teh narrative”. 🙂

  37. Tony Abbott is gutless. He cannot take pressure. He believes in running and hiding. He would make a disgraceful PM.

    Australia would be a total joke under him. We’d be forced to sit at the kids’ table in international affairs (which is ok because daddy America and mummy Commonwealth make the decisions.) At least the PM will be close with the President of Nauru.

    He will fail at everything he does and his yes men will use and assortment of scapegoats and whipping boys to make sure he never sees the pressure of scrutiny.

  38. [Georgie
    Posted Sunday, August 15, 2010 at 1:40 pm | Permalink
    Aaaaah……………………I love this stuff! Labor know they’ve got it in the bag. The Libs know that Labor have got it in the bag, too.

    So, Labor’s focus this w]

    thanks for bring a new perspective on things yes goon on ya Julia your terms this time abbott will not know what hit him re economics.

  39. An interesting thought on ‘moving forward’.

    ‘Move America Forward’ is a pro-troops, conservative (ie reactionary) lobby group in the US. They are an anti-anti-war group.

  40. [@ruawake 60

    Are you serious?]

    Yep Julia just said so in her presser. “I will be at the Ch7 Brisbane studio at 6.30 tonight to debate the economy”. Then called on Tone to join her.

  42. “[I will be at the Ch7 Brisbane studio at 6.30 tonight to debate the economy”. Then called on Tone to join her.]

    so its not rooty hill then go Julia

  45. [Remember Bob Ellis said that some were disqualified from participating on the grounds they had been traditional ALP.]

    Dee, there’s a lot of confusing information swirling around the ether at the moment, but of one thing you can always be sure: if Bob Ellis says it, it definitely isn’t true.

  48. Diogenes<

    [scorps

    I say decide it in a boxing ring; Abbott vs Gillard. The undecideds can do the point scoring. ]

    The Abbott would have to make sure he had a "box" inside his budgie smugglers though.

    A good solid kick in that region by Julia with her RM Williams shod foot, would be the end of the debate & poor old Tone! 😉

  49. Hey, if anyone believes Galaxy is on to anything apart from Murdoch papers and ALP spinners then they can make a lot of money on the betting markets:

    Here are odds you can get now for the Coalition candidates in seats which Galaxy is saying are all going to go their way. Assume you bet $100 on each of them.

    Bennelong $225
    Brisbane $305
    Petrie $275
    Longman $265
    Bonner $270
    Eden-Monaro $350

    Return, if Galaxy is right, is $1690 for an outlay of $600.

    That’s a 180% clear profit in one week, equivalent to an
    annual interest rate of millions.

    (Beware, this is not investment advice)

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