Morning marginals madness

Morning my time, anyway. Polling action from overnight:

• Roy Morgan has targeted three widely spread electorates with small sample polls of about 300 respondents each, with margins of error approaching 6 per cent. These show the Liberals with a 3.1 per cent lead in Macquarie (a 3.2 per cent swing) and the Liberal National Party with a 2.5 per cent lead in Leichhardt (a 6.6 per cent swing), while in the long-forgotten Perth seat of Brand Labor retains a lead of 53-47, a swing against them of 3.1 per cent. The poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday evenings.

• Via Ross Hart in comments, we learn of a poll by Tasmanian outfit EMRS of that state’s marginal seats of Bass and Braddon which has both “safe” for Labor. Only figures from Bass are offered, which after exclusion of non-respondents are 43 per cent Labor, 34 per cent Liberal and 20 per cent Greens (who have a history of doing unduly well in EMRS polls), for a Labor two-party vote of 57 per cent and a swing in their favour of 6 per cent. UPDATE: More at the Launceston Examiner. Of Braddon we are told Labor is on 40 per cent and the Greens on 13 per cent, and I believe this is without distribution of the undecided.

• The Tweed Daily News/Northern Star has produced a poll of 400 respondents in the NSW north coast seat of Richmond, which appears to have been conducted in-house and should thus be treated with caution. Certainly it suffers a problem common to such polls: an undecided rate of 24 per cent, presumably resulting from a failure to twist respondents’ arms with a follow-up “leaning towards” question. For what it’s worth, the results show Labor in trouble: primary votes without exclusion of the undecided are 30 per cent for Labor incumbent Justine Elliot, 26 per cent for Liberal challenger Joan van Lieshout, 9 per cent for Nationals and 10 per cent for the Greens. If nothing else the poll suggests the Nationals are no longer competitive in the seat that was once home to the Anthony dynasty.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,378 comments on “Morning marginals madness”

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  1. Scorpio

    The frustration I am feeling with all these conflicting polls, it would not be hard to resort to violence under the circumstances!

  2. [if Bob Ellis says it, it definitely isn’t true.]

    Bet me to it. I’d take everything Ellis says with a grain of salt.

    He thinks he’s helping the Labor cause but all he does is hinder it.

  4. [Sounds like a desperate stunt to me. This is the type of thing an Opposition Leader would do.]

    Could well be.

    I guess another angle could be that attacks on Abbott’s economic credibility are gaining traction & they’re trying to reinforce that in the late stages.

    With this election, its just too difficult to know!

  5. .

    [She also wants both leaders on stage at the same time while they are grilled by voters.

    ALP national secretary Karel Bitar has presented these conditions in an open letter to the Liberal campaign director.

    “That would end your candidate’s cowardly avoidance of the debate on the economy and allow for a fulsome discussion with Australians on the central issues of the campaign,” Mr Bitar wrot]

    love it

  6. @Dr Good 99

    Is there some way we can turn these into CDOs (Collateralized Debt Obligations) and all make our fortunes selling them to Liberal supporters?

    Or has Malcolm Turncoat already cornered the market?

  7. [Dee, there’s a lot of confusing information swirling around the ether at the moment, but of one thing you can always be sure: if Bob Ellis says it, it definitely isn’t true.]
    Is he a rolled gold liar William?

  8. Annabel Crabbe accurately sums up the reasons for the fluttering polls:

    Is there a consistent national theme that pulses through this election?

    Not really, apart from chronic fatigue, and the risk attached to both major parties.

    The risk that Julia Gillard might turn out to be a not-so-good prime minister, nauseously implicit in the weird East Timor shemozzle, the climate change people’s assembly idea (are you serious?) and the idea that this woman’s strength of character and personal conviction could be overwhelmed so readily by campaign advisers that she would behave like an automaton for two weeks just because they thought it would be a good idea.

    The risk, on the other hand, that Tony Abbott might be even worse: a man who changes his mind as regularly as he does his Speedos, who advocated Coalition support for the Government’s emissions trading scheme six months before he became personally responsible for blowing it up, who promised no new taxes but then announced a big new one he didn’t even mention to his shadow Cabinet because he knew what they’d say and in any event he believes it’s better to seek forgiveness than ask permission.

    Wow. It’s some choice.

    In these circumstances, the extraneous distractions of this campaign simply serve to exacerbate the rootlessness of the exercise.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/08/13/2982386.htm?site=thedrum

  10. [Bet me to it. I’d take everything Ellis says with a grain of salt.

    He thinks he’s helping the Labor cause but all he does is hinder it.]
    I thought you guys said he hated Gillard & was going to bring her down???

  12. [This is a desperate News Ltd hack attempt at creating a bandwagon effect for Tone. ]
    (Pebbles in the previous thread.)

    I had a look at the hard copy and would have to agree with that, and with Antony Green’s fisking of the conclusion, which should be 51-49 Labor. Briggs has got enough qualifiers -it assumes the swings in the various seats will be uniform when they won’t be – but he will have to tread very carefully to ensure his integrity is not compromised by what seems to be a misuse of the data. Rooty Hill was bad enough previously.

    I couldn’t find dating for the sample. If it was over several weeks and averaged, it is useless. It is clear Labor was in disarray after the leaks in week 2 and the media focusing on Rudd. That changed after Latham and after Rudd’s interview and appearance and Labor’s acceptance has been gradually rising since. Even a week back Labor’s support would have been better than week 2 but less than now.

    I think we’ll have to rely on the better-established polls and feedback from individuals (eg in NQ, Bud has told us Leichhardt is gone but Herbert is good.)

  13. How gutless is Tone on debating the economy?……….Tone piss off the budgie smugglers and buy yourself a yellow dotted bikini!

  14. Triffid
    [I guess another angle could be that attacks on Abbott’s economic credibility are gaining traction & they’re trying to reinforce that in the late stages.]
    Gillard was relentlessly on message with the Laurie Oakes on the economy

    Oakes: what are you having for lunch?
    Gillard: well Laurie, I am for a strong economy, I am for creating 200,000 jobs etc etc

    😉

  15. Scorpio

    Am I still wrong about Leichardt. Morgan poll above is a 6.6% swing against labor. LNP 2.5% lead or is this all wrong. Are you still feeling comfortable about telling these good folk to take the $2.60. After all as you pointed out we did say sorry.

    I advise you to match your wasted stake on Leichardt with a bet on Herbert with Centrebet at $2.20. It will swing towards ALP.

    Just saying

  18. ……………………anther tell tale sign that things are going bad for the Liberals and the Murdoch press is the treatment of the Galaxy results. This has to be the first time in my memory that any media outlet has deliberately misrepresented/misused poll figures from a reasonably reputable polling agency. I reckon the execs at Galaxy would be none too pleased with News Ltd’s treatment of such, especially when Australia’s much loved resident polling nerd Antony Green says so, too!

  21. Can anyone answer a couple of question for me please.

    Antony Green in a post on the previous thread said he had found a couple of bad errors in the methodology of the Galaxy poll and rejigged the TPP figure. Instead of 41.5- 48.5 to the Libs he came up with 51-49 to Labour.

    I am not clear whether the rejigged TPP figure applies only to the marginal seats that were polled or whether it applied more widely.

    I suspect it has to be the former because I seem to recall him saying you can’t extrapolate from a few marginal seat polls to a TPP for the whole electorate.

    If that is so, 51-49 to Labor on the marginals would be a bloody good result wouldn’t it, given that a few of them are swinging wildly against the government?

  22. Tone clearly can’t be PM after this. Where are his family values?

    [bennpackham Tony scoffs bacon roll. Dobell woman says: “I don’t approve of him eating and talking. It’s basic good manners. If he wants to be pm…” ]

  23. [I thought you guys said he hated Gillard & was going to bring her down???]

    He probably does.

    He’s a miserable has-been.

    I don’t know what his positions are on this election. I ignore his articles. The bastard is just a waste of Oxygen and probably a truckload of Merlot.

    Yes, I know I sound hateful of him but you would be too, if he (innocent as his motivation may have been) threw a big grenade in the middle of a close state election which just added to the image of the government being out of touch.

  24. @Blue_green/79

    I Disagree with Chris Joye on Broadband.

    Why should Broadband not get some money to fix the Industry? Remember, this isn’t just about Broadband itself, it’s also creating a much needed equal competing Industry.

    Whats the point of putting money on Houses where in this day in age, not many can BUY houses?

    Whats the point of putting money into Transport, when there is already money going into that sector?

    This is just silly nonsense, coming from people who think that Telecommunications and Broadband are not equally deserving compared to other Industries.

    Compared to most other Industries whether it’s Health, Education and Public Transport, Telecommunications and Broadband has got the least amount of money from The Government.

  27. Having actually watched both the Abbott interview and Gillard press conference the situation is thus at 11.44am Perth time:

    Abbott challenged Gillard to a second town hall style event but shied way when challenged by Cassidy on why not just have a second debate.

    In a smart move Gillard at her presser said she would be happy to do a town hall style event as long as it was preceded by a one-on-one debate on the economy. Gillard said she would be at Channel 7 at 6.30pm tonight and challenged Abbott to be there too. Asked if that was short notice she said she would be happy to meet on the same terms at any time before the election.

    Now Abbott has to accept those terms or at best be seen to be squirming all over the place to avoid an economic debate. Again.

    Gillard can rightly point out Sky has now moderated one debate and had exclusive rights to town haller. That means a network with at least some semblance of fairness will be involved.

    On the polling an froing, perhaps the best evidence came yesterday. The panicked reaction of Abbott about what the media should be asking and the attacks from within on how the Lib campaign had been run seemed to me to be unscripted.

    Gillard is using the latest polls to put the acid on people to vote in their own interest nationally and kick the states later – very sensible.

    My one word of caution, Watch WA, we are reactionary mob. Push the broadband hard here.

    Abbott on now.

  28. [Can anyone answer a couple of question for me please.]

    Darn you cant get a national polling number from a marginal seats poll. Its just not mathematically sensible.

    You could assume that the swings in marginal polls in each state match the overall swings in across all seats in each state. you then mulitple the likely swing for each state by the population of each state and then add it up to get a national swing.

    News just averaged the marginal 2pp from each state.

    Its pretty dodgy either way.

  30. Annabel Crabb says that Julia was weak on her Asylum Seeker East Timor issue and Citizens Assembly. This is true. But I doubt Julia she wanted to be strong on these issues. Labor just wanted to neutralise them somewhat.

    It is a wedge issue at the moment. Hardline on AS Labor loses, too soft Labor loses.
    Same with climate change policy. Going for ETS, Labor lose, not going for it at all, they lose also. Another wedge issue.

    Ultimately, I have always believed that it is the “Economy Stupid”. People are self interested. Jobs, Mortgage, groceries, utility bills, health and education are always more important than anything else. These areas are Labor’s strengths.

    Honestly from my viewpoint, I do not understand how the Asylum Seeker issue should have any effect in this day and age. It baffles me.

  31. blue_green@79

    A very smart Chris Joye on the Broadband

    Interestingly, both those on the centre and left of the political divide, who think that government should be leveraging up its balance-sheet and investing in much more infrastructure, which is a view I subscribe to, and those on the centre-right who question whether the NBN is, in fact, a ‘public good’ that deserves any government funding at all, should have questions about this project.

    For the centrists, many opportunity costs loom large. The best-case $43 billion price tag for the NBN could be invested in a range of much more tangible and certain projects that yield arguably higher benefits. For example, this capital could help address the public transport crisis by funding 230km of new metro railway lines—equivalent to 16.5 times the size of the Parramatta to Epping rail link—based on the latter’s costing. It could go a long way to resolving the hospitals crisis by delivering 14,600 new beds (or 43 major hospitals) based on the price of the latest Royal Childrens Hospital in Melbourne. Or it could eradicate homelessness by building 107,500 new homes worth $400,000 each to take the circa 105,000 people without shelter today off the streets.

    Socrates, how much energy investment could you lever with that much public money?

    Nice list. But you neglect to mention that the $43B can only do one of those things, with everything else (including the NBN) being an opportunity cost for that project.

    The difference with the NBN is that it provides benefits to the two areas mentioned:
    Transport: taking knowledge workers out of the public transport system.
    Health: e-heath etc.

    There is even an argument to be made that an NBN will improve housing affordability by widening the market of desirable addresses.

    There are probably some big enery savings in there as well.

    And of course, the government is going to to sell it off to private enterprise, so it’s an investment in every sense of the word.

  32. [JG “I will turn up for Channel 7 economic debate even if Tony doesn’t”]

    Shades of the Roxon/Abbott health debate from the 2007 election. 🙂

    Will be interesting to see Julia G on 7 tonight and how she plays it.

  33. Musrum

    That is the sort of analysis the Libs could have done. Labor should have also done it but its a politcal undoable now. (Like I thought the ETS was).

    We have so little debt the govt should be investing in 2-3 NBN size activities. Energy for one.

  35. @musrum 131

    Good response. If only the politicians we actualy PAY to do this could sum up the issue as sensibly as you do!

    Not to mention that the NBN actually MAKES money, rather than COSTS money. By the bucketloads, in fact.

  37. The “I’ll start the debate, even if my opponent doesn’t show up!” gambit is a popular one from US politics – a very effective one, I add.

  41. [125 William Bowe
    Posted Sunday, August 15, 2010 at 2:00 pm | Permalink
    “Setting out facts from commentary” table on the Newspoll and Galaxy marginal polls, from David Moore at The Next Level ]

    thank you for that make sure you all read it cuts out all the nonsence and is clear.

    it certainly is a good name . the next level

  45. [pebbles 123 – but he writes a lot better than you]

    You’ve read my works, have you?

    (Hastily typed replies on a blog comments section with no edit button don’t count)

  46. [The difference with the NBN is that it provides benefits to the two areas mentioned:
    Transport: taking knowledge workers out of the public transport system.
    Health: e-heath etc.

    There is even an argument to be made that an NBN will improve housing affordability by widening the market of desirable addresses.

    There are probably some big enery savings in there as well.]

    I get the feeling that current libs don’t know the difference between capital investment and everyday expenses. They certainly don’t understand social/environmental investment and the social benefits of good service provision. All part of their survival of the fittest philosophy.

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