Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor leading 52-48, from primary votes of 38 per cent Labor (steady), 41 per cent Coalition (down one) and 14 per cent Greens (up one). There’s also that rare thing – an interesting finding on an attitudinal question, this being a plunge in the Coalition’s lead as “better to manage the economy” from 12 per cent to 1 per cent. Chief suspects: Labor’s Hewson-Costello ads and the Coalition’s costings confusion, much of which would have escaped the Sunday-to-Thursday time frame of the great Galaxy mega-poll.

UPDATE: Full results here. As in Nielsen, Julia Gillard’s personal ratings have improved: approval up one to 44 per cent and disapproval down three to 38 per cent, but Tony Abbott’s have as well, off the base of what was probably an unflattering result last week: approval up two to 43 per cent, disapproval down three to 46 per cent. Preferred prime minister is essentially unchanged, with both Gillard and Abbott up a point to 50 per cent and 35 per cent respectively. However, the poll confirms a general trend of the Labor vote being slightly “softer” than the Coalition. As well as closing the economy gap from 47-35 to 44-43, Labor has also pulled further ahead as best party to handle climate change, from 33-26 to 35-22, while the Coalition lead on asylum seekers has widened incrementally from 42-29 to 43-29.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,228 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Joffaboy
    [In Women’s Studies, this would be called a case of a male-identified woman… ]
    [Maybe this is why she goes all giggly and gooey when she is talking about Tone and Mal.]

    It would be interesting to keep on eye out for this. The most striking example was that mob a few years ago WWWW (Women Who Want to be Women) who were fighting for the right of women to be stay at home wives.

    Not that I knew of anyone stopping them. If I remember correctly, their president was a man, a priest or something. LOL (they are not worth the effort to google 😉 )

  2. [Crabb fits the new mold of journalist which is part journo part celebrity -its now all about me and how witty I can be. It detracts for the substance and integity in my view.]

    well said had not thought of that its to do with tv and woman who do talk shows perhaps

  3. [ Dee and Victoria – must be just we girls. ]

    No, I too have many other ways I could be productively spending time, if only I could drag myself away from PB.

  4. [In Women’s Studies, this would be called a case of a male-identified woman i.e. one who fights to preserve the status quo (and thus upholds the subjugation of the female) to preserve their own role in the structure and the benefits that accrue personally. ]

    PufftMD – actually that is exactly how I’ve always seen Annabel Crabbe. Thanks

  5. [No, I too have many other ways I could be productively spending time, if only I could drag myself away from PB]

    yes it will take a few days to come down wont it, but i think pb will go on with the
    the people who love to talk about politics one night i read with interest a chat with

    bk and glen regarding Churchill’s role in the second ww.

  6. Jeez, the poor bastard is losing it big time …

    [ But Mr Abbott, who is refusing to debate Ms Gillard on the economy at a community forum in Brisbane on Wednesday night, attacked Labor’s record.

    “I am happy to talk about the economy every minute between now and polling day,” Mr Abbott said. ]

    … just not with big scary Julia, obvioiusly!

  7. [The SMH was once a decent paper, with a moderate-right slant on the world, but it’s gone to the dogs now-although there are still people like Ross Gittins, Ian Verrender and Philip Coorey who are a good read.]

    ParramattaC – I used to love it and couldn’t wait to get my hands on every issue but no longer. I feel sad for the good journos you’ve mentioned but I think it lost its way when it tried to go a bit tabloidy a few years ago. It certainly went downhill when the former Liberal Party treasurer was Chairman (can’t remember his name now) but perhaps that was his intention so that Murdoch could be saved.

  8. On the issue of how Kevin Rudd was ‘dispatched’. I think it requires deeper scrutiny.

    I personally saw Kevin Rudd as somewhat ‘spooked’ towards the middle of the year. It was most noticeable in an interview with Kerry O’Brien, but also in his poor body language and general inarticulation when speaking publicly. He just looked burnt out. In that sense it was a blessing that his colleagues relieved him of having to face the pressure of an election.

    But here’s the underlying reality as I’ve seen it. It relates to an opposition who never accepted their loss in 2007, and the powerful forces that they represent.


    “Mr Abbott said his new line-up was a campaigning team who would give the Government the ‘fright of its life’… ‘Today I am announcing a new team that will be focused on criticising the Government rather than speculating about ourselves,’ he said.”


    “TONY ABBOTT has taken credit for the demise of Kevin Rudd, declaring it was proof the Coalition would have defeated Labor at the next election…And Mr Abbott revealed former prime minister John Howard called him on Wednesday night to congratulate him on the achievement.”


    “The factional chiefs of the ALP are elected members of parliament, who can be voted out of office if the electorate is unhappy with them…The same is not true for the mining chiefs who mobilised so effectively against the super-profits tax. They are not accountable to the electorate. They are the real “faceless men” who dispatched the Australian prime minister.”

    Add to that an obvious classic Murdoch media campaign (an unfortunate import from the U.S.) of ‘parry, deflect, finesse’ (per Bill Sammon, News Director of Fox News), and the meme of Labor disunity becomes less sustainable as an argument.

  9. apeman
    [I feel that the phrase ‘jumping the shark’ has jumped the shark.]

    Looks like, alas, that Abbott didn’t quite make it all the way, and there is a lot of blood and gore in the water…

  10. Robb again!

    He is obviously the only Liberal apart from Tone who is allowed to front the media. The coalition have no faith in their own front bench members.

  11. I see a frame-up coming on…

    Kieran Gilbert just telling us that Julia will probably “get over the line” if

    * there is not one more leak

    * no more ex-leaders putting in their two-bob’s worth

    * in general, no more surprises.

    Seeing as he is a member of the class of bottom dwellers who “decide” which leak is “important”, which ex-leader’s statement has any “credibility”, and what’s a “surprise”, it makes me wonder whether he or someone else mightn’t take him at his word and release a few more “bombshells”.

    Reminds me of a couple of months back when Shanahan and van Onselen were saying that the next Newspoll – whether the result was within MOE or not – would determine Rudd’s future. Or, maybe it’s been their propensity to have Latham along on their cruddy panel with his “bombshells”. I mean, there’s your automatic “surprise” right there. Get Latham to spout some nonsense and then call it for Phoney Tony.

    This would then give them an excuse to say, “Game Over, Julia”.

  12. Victoria – his wife has a career. In Sydney.

    Is she going to give up her job and move to Canberra; is she going to keep her job and stay in Sydney with the girls while hubby takes the gig in Canberra; or is she going to keep her job, stay in Sydney and move into Kirribilli with hubby and the girls?

    These are perfectly legitimate questions on a number of counts.

    Firstly, it goes to his attitudes to married women in the workforce. If he confirms that he is moving to Canberra, does that mean he is expecting his wife to sacrifice her career for his?

    Secondly, it goes to his being “family man”. Does the stability of his girls’ education not count for anything suddenly? Remember he remortgaged his house so they could remain in their nice expensive private school in Sydney. Moving them to Canberra means they will have to change schools … unless they stay in Sydney with Margie, in which case the Lodge will be more of a singles pad that it will with Julia living there.

    Thirdly, it goes to his “waste” rhetoric. How can he possibly argue that travelling to and from Sydney and Canberra to be anything but waste, particularly when he has a very clear option of living in Canberra in a taxpayer-funded residence?

    It’s the perfect wedge. He’s damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t. 😀

  13. A beautiful “audio problem” on Sky just had Robb endlessly repeating a syllable at a great rate of knots, as in , “lalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalaal…”

    It was hard to spot the difference.

  14. [Although I have been doing a bit of walking for the party, I have also been eating a lot and when I have had free time have spent pretty much all of it planted on here. Don’t think I have gone for a swim since the election was called.]

    I wonder if we can sue Crikey and William for ‘addiction’!!

    Autocrat – you will keep and you’re just lucky I can’t see whether you are telling me the truth about your bum size!

  15. One thing she did that slipped by the MSM was the recognition of the First Australians in the constitution. Has this come up in the past few days while I’ve been incommunicado or did it slip by me earlier in the campaign?

  16. Oh, and I’ve changed my mind about the “town hall debate”. After watching the Rabbott implode so badly last night and today, I don’t think she needs to turn up at all – I think she should stick to her guns – no debate on the economy, no town hall debate – especially not one hosted by ‘Sly TV’.

    However, in order not to deprive the good voters of Queensland a chance to see her in action (and question her directly) she should instead hold her own forum in Brisbane – hosted by the ABC. If the ABC insists in also inviting the Rabbott along for political balance, then that’s fine – ’cause he’d be afraid to turn up.

  17. Firstly, it goes to his attitudes to married women in the workforce. If he confirms that he is moving to Canberra, does that mean he is expecting his wife to sacrifice her career for his?

    The answer is “yes”.

    Therese Rein had to sell of millions of dollars worth of local businesses just to make sure she wasn’t seen to be potentially corrupt.

  18. wouldn’t abbott just cycle to work from sydney to canberra? maybe on the boatcycle (geez, this boat-stuff is getting old real quick)

  19. [so this has been out let able to talk about it and have friends that do, funny thing to use the word talk but u all know what i mean]

    my say,

    You’re spot on, Comrade! 🙂

  20. Andrew Robb just said what was wrong with Labor’s new health policy … and then said “well, there’s nothing wrong with it”.


  21. Oscar

    No more town hall meetings
    cunning rat like Abbotts love them as no pro Q’s and f/ups , which is why he ran away instead from an econamy only Debate where he had to stay on a sujbect for more than a 1 liner and thus be exposed

  22. [Robb again!

    He is obviously the only Liberal apart from Tone who is allowed to front the media. The coalition have no faith in their own front bench members.]

    I reckon Robb is doing Labor a favour – every time he turns up on tele or radio he is so miserable and negative about everything that one could thing ‘who’d want to be watching him day in and day out if Abbott wins’.

    He’s a right turnoff to everyone except died in the wool Liberals.

  23. the fact that Annabel has a crush on Tony actually disqualifies her I think!!

    She was also taken with turnbull to the extent that he could do no wrong. She did one of those quarterly review essay things and was *captured* by every thing he did and said from then on.

    I just see her as perpetual praising the liberals, any liberal, while holding labor in general, particularly rudd and gillard to a far far higher of accountability.

    Smart arsed crap she produces is just entertainment value not serious thoughtful analysis. But then again not many in the msm even look like producing it either.

  24. DT 84

    that was such a good reading on your part. Our son has been out of the country for some months now and cannot understand what went on i hope you do not mind but i have copied and pasted it to give it to him to read when he comes home on sunday

    hopefully to a joyous welcome and the beginning of a new time with our first female prime minister.

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