Morning marginals madness

Morning my time, anyway. Polling action from overnight:

• Roy Morgan has targeted three widely spread electorates with small sample polls of about 300 respondents each, with margins of error approaching 6 per cent. These show the Liberals with a 3.1 per cent lead in Macquarie (a 3.2 per cent swing) and the Liberal National Party with a 2.5 per cent lead in Leichhardt (a 6.6 per cent swing), while in the long-forgotten Perth seat of Brand Labor retains a lead of 53-47, a swing against them of 3.1 per cent. The poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday evenings.

• Via Ross Hart in comments, we learn of a poll by Tasmanian outfit EMRS of that state’s marginal seats of Bass and Braddon which has both “safe” for Labor. Only figures from Bass are offered, which after exclusion of non-respondents are 43 per cent Labor, 34 per cent Liberal and 20 per cent Greens (who have a history of doing unduly well in EMRS polls), for a Labor two-party vote of 57 per cent and a swing in their favour of 6 per cent. UPDATE: More at the Launceston Examiner. Of Braddon we are told Labor is on 40 per cent and the Greens on 13 per cent, and I believe this is without distribution of the undecided.

• The Tweed Daily News/Northern Star has produced a poll of 400 respondents in the NSW north coast seat of Richmond, which appears to have been conducted in-house and should thus be treated with caution. Certainly it suffers a problem common to such polls: an undecided rate of 24 per cent, presumably resulting from a failure to twist respondents’ arms with a follow-up “leaning towards” question. For what it’s worth, the results show Labor in trouble: primary votes without exclusion of the undecided are 30 per cent for Labor incumbent Justine Elliot, 26 per cent for Liberal challenger Joan van Lieshout, 9 per cent for Nationals and 10 per cent for the Greens. If nothing else the poll suggests the Nationals are no longer competitive in the seat that was once home to the Anthony dynasty.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,378 comments on “Morning marginals madness”

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  5. My say
    Ellis on the Drum after the Rooted Hill fiasco wrote an article about how the whole forum was set up to make the Rabbott shine.
    He spoke of audience polling, named a guy who had been rejected on his previous voting history & the use of the cameras to enhance the Rabbott’s statue at the forum.

    William alludes to him being a liar as does a few others on here. Point is a week or two ago PB’s on here were stating that he hates Gillard & is, will revenge Rudd’s leadership challenge. There has been a few others in the blogosphere commenting about the camera work & lighting tricks to enhance the speaker.
    I just thought he was mirroring what we had already thought according to comments on PB after the Rooted Hill event.

  6. Musrum

    Your devotion to the NBN is touching but there are a few holes in your argument:

    – taking knowledge workers out of PT: you seem to ignore the social aspect of work and gathering in the workplace. In my own company, we constantly bemoan the inefficiency of home workers compared to office workers (nothing to do with broadband speed) because the home workers are siloed and don’t have informal means of broadening their skills. Also all communication is so formalised.
    – the e health benefits are well understood but can be achieved by connecting hospitals, clinics etc.
    – widening the market housing affordability – we live in one of the most centralised countries int the world. Unfortunately that is why our housing market is stuffed, and to get people to move, it will take a lot more than braodband connections – other jobs, schools, health care, culture. etc.

    And will the government ever get a 43 billion investment back. Probably not but you can bet everything that any potential buyer will have done a business plan.

  9. I actually wish we had gotten Malcolm Turnbull the entrepeneur, rather than Malcolm Turnbull the pandering to the backbenchers on ‘debt=bad’.

    MT as an entrepenuerial leader could have delivered some serious investment into Aus.

    It would have blown the Australian political process apart.

  11. Boy at Longman gets a run: Q: Should the boy discipline the campaign worker

    Then Abbott brings up Dawson!

    (Could you imagine the boy taking on that angry campaign worker???? Just shows he is a boy…not a good look)

  12. Abbott ignores fact JG has offered economic debate AND town hall forum.

    Super squirmy. Heads off early amid cat calls from reporters about being afraid to answer questions.

  14. As Abbott walks out, a journo shouts out a few times…”12 minute press conference”

    “Wil you submit yourself to questions every day for rest of campaign”

  18. Abbott is in trouble. The journo’s are giving him a good going over and he’s a bit confused looking.

    Abbotts cowardice writ large. Julia G prepared to do another forum, provided it includes a debate on the economy, Abbott not prepared to Julia under any circumstances.

  19. From the delightful Latike on tones presser
    [latikambourke oh dear, that didn’t go so well. #ausvotes ]

    has their been a single article written about tony’s storming off? He seem sto do it all the time. I am really surprised the journalists can tolerate that level of rudeness.

  21. blackburnpseph/156

    I have a disappointment for you.

    1. If the NBN comes to businesses it will increase productivity, because businesses rely on fast stable connection especially when those companies produces files to their clients.

    2. Mike Quigley said NBN is doing it’s own business case.

  22. [Abbott is in trouble. The journo’s are giving him a good going over and he’s a bit confused looking.]

    A bit of that Geo W Bush confused look actually

  23. Some people on this blog suggested that Labor do an ad showing Abbott leave presser’s as soon as questions get a bit tough. Time is running out obviously, but it would be very effective.

  26. I am actually sick of all the cyncial stunts in this campaign. Maybe should ask Julia is she is being a) arrogant or b) cynical in making $26 billion worth of promises that don’t even start until 2014 – so does she assume she wins 2013 as well as 2010? The coalition have $6 billion in this category.

    Also, the ALP should be asked why theyare paying for an extra 8 days more of campaigning from the public purse than the Libs, and 14 or 21 longer than the Greens? How much will this cost the taxpayer?

    There needs to be some serious reforms after this election – no promises for anything that does not start in the coming term AND taxpayers campaign trough should stop when the writs are issued.

  27. more grumpy journos

    [bennpackham Abbott does 12min presser, doesn’t answer the main question – why won’t he debate Gillard? Pathetic #ausvotes ]

    Are they going to run it as a story or are the just as pathetic?

  29. Right, where’s the article from the journos stating that Abbott is blatantly avoiding the spotlight? Let’s see it. They wonder why pollies are so lame these days. Make them accountable, you idiots.

  32. Victoria

    Some people shoudl point out to Julia Gillard that she is much more effective when she actually answers the question and doesn’t waffle on with what she wants to answer. Last Monday, on Q&A, Tony Jones was pulling her up at the beginning for not answering the question (one of her standard techniques) but she did swing in and answer the questions after that and was very effective. Same, as the previous weekend with the famous Mark Latham presser, she was direct and no waffle.

  35. [Abbott: Better for pollies to get questions from public
    Journo: Why are you cancelling community cabinets?]
    LOL LOL 😀
    I Love it!

  36. blackburnpseph 182

    Very good point.

    Same with on the 7PM Project, she started obfuscating at one point and it made her look bad but then she got back on the straight and narrow.

  37. Maybe everyone has missed it but on inciters this morning when they were talking about how poor tone was and was living day to day, week to week etc, the cameras cut to Maggie and the voice over said that Maggie said she was in charge of the household budget.
    That must be her endorsement that is clearly saying he is an idiot with money in his hands.
    If he can not control his household budget how can he control Australias budget.

  38. [b_g

    Short poppy

    Wimps dont get elected.]

    You know that if he had stepped in, it would have catapulted the story further up the news bulletins.

    I actually think he is pretty gutsy for having a crack. I just dont think it is wise judgement by the pre-seleectors. We just haven’t seen the alternatives. So I cant really compare though.

  39. Brisoz @ 171

    In answer to your points

    1. Really, how very enlightening, speed helps. Of course it does, but if you are dealing with overseas it only works if ther is speed at both ends. And business will pay for speed.
    2. So what happens if the NBN business case is a fizzer? Sorry Julia, sorry Steve its a turkey and all the money is going down the drain or the costs to the consumer are going to be huge and unsustainable – what happens then?

  43. [And will the government ever get a 43 billion investment back. Probably not but you can bet everything that any potential buyer will have done a business plan.]
    $43 billion has been put up as worse case scenario. Industry costings have come in at $26 billion. Tassie NBN connect has come in 10% less predicted costs.
    Check out Lavartus they also had some costings which blow the $43 billion scenario right out of the water. It really does scale it down considerably even on business industry costs.

  44. Has anybody considered the possibility that JG and the Govt know they have it in the bag and like most here, want the Opposition crushed. Calling Abbotts bluff on a “rooted hill” debate, with at least fair rules, leaves him isolated whichever way he goes. He’ll lose an intelligent reasoned debate, with every chance of exploding when he can’t walk away from hard questions. If he does refuse the debate….equally as bad. I reckon his minders will be pondering the wisdom of both moves. They seem to have,,once again, wedged themselves. JG has called their bluff and they, the opposition, are like the dog…….well, I’ve caught the car. Now what the f@#^k do I do with it!

    FWIW….my call
    Labor 95 seats. no analysis, no research….just a feeling in my water.

  46. [2. So what happens if the NBN business case is a fizzer? Sorry Julia, sorry Steve its a turkey and all the money is going down the drain or the costs to the consumer are going to be huge and unsustainable – what happens then?]
    How will the NBN be a fizzer when Telstra says it will eventually put all its phone customers on the NBN and shut down its copper network, because the copper will be more valuable sold on the world copper market than being used to transmit internet and phone calls?

  47. I distinctly heard a male jurno voice say “walking out again”..Abbott looked stunned at the general reaction….so now the media, if they are as peed off as they sounded, print it.

  48. It sounds like the journos will be waiting with baseball bats

    another grumpy twitter on tones presser

    [PatsKarvelas Can’t wait to make Abbott answer more questions #ausvotes ]

  50. I know it’s cliche but I am going to be so glad to see this election be over, next week.

    I swear my hairline has receded an inch since the election begun!

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