Morning marginals madness

Morning my time, anyway. Polling action from overnight:

• Roy Morgan has targeted three widely spread electorates with small sample polls of about 300 respondents each, with margins of error approaching 6 per cent. These show the Liberals with a 3.1 per cent lead in Macquarie (a 3.2 per cent swing) and the Liberal National Party with a 2.5 per cent lead in Leichhardt (a 6.6 per cent swing), while in the long-forgotten Perth seat of Brand Labor retains a lead of 53-47, a swing against them of 3.1 per cent. The poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday evenings.

• Via Ross Hart in comments, we learn of a poll by Tasmanian outfit EMRS of that state’s marginal seats of Bass and Braddon which has both “safe” for Labor. Only figures from Bass are offered, which after exclusion of non-respondents are 43 per cent Labor, 34 per cent Liberal and 20 per cent Greens (who have a history of doing unduly well in EMRS polls), for a Labor two-party vote of 57 per cent and a swing in their favour of 6 per cent. UPDATE: More at the Launceston Examiner. Of Braddon we are told Labor is on 40 per cent and the Greens on 13 per cent, and I believe this is without distribution of the undecided.

• The Tweed Daily News/Northern Star has produced a poll of 400 respondents in the NSW north coast seat of Richmond, which appears to have been conducted in-house and should thus be treated with caution. Certainly it suffers a problem common to such polls: an undecided rate of 24 per cent, presumably resulting from a failure to twist respondents’ arms with a follow-up “leaning towards” question. For what it’s worth, the results show Labor in trouble: primary votes without exclusion of the undecided are 30 per cent for Labor incumbent Justine Elliot, 26 per cent for Liberal challenger Joan van Lieshout, 9 per cent for Nationals and 10 per cent for the Greens. If nothing else the poll suggests the Nationals are no longer competitive in the seat that was once home to the Anthony dynasty.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,378 comments on “Morning marginals madness”

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  3. In SA, Foley is trying incredibly hard to get himself sacked.

    [ DEPUTY Premier Kevin Foley has given a personal reference to dumped South Australian Jockey Club chief Steven Ploubidis in a bid to secure another top job for him in thoroughbred racing.

    The revelation is certain to increase speculation over Mr Foley’s political future with a member of Mr Foley’s own right wing faction saying his “backing” of Mr Ploubidis was “a misjudgment”.]

    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/foley-offers-reference-for-dumped-jockey-club-chief-steven-ploubidis/story-e6frea83-1225905588667

  6. grog 1274 – yes, I posted a few days ago that a last desperate attempt by the liberals would be to unpack the boat-people euphamism and let out the racist genie – boat people is a politically correct way of expressing a Hansonist point of view. Both sides are playing this card – but the libs might have to go feral on it.

  12. Sorry PseeFloss:

    [Mick, could I suggest that psephology and the English language are two things you should not get into arguments with me about without first checking your facts?

    http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/ineducable%5D

    I meant a real word not an American word. 😛

    They also say “write me”, “off of” and use word like “Instinctual” (instead of ‘instinctive’), Orientate (instead of ‘orient’) and, my personal favourite: “surveilling” (instead of ‘Surveying’) 🙂 🙂 🙂

    Sheeeeesh. You need to get off the computer and read those things with pages sometimes. Not everything on the internet is worth believing (or using), for example ALP policy. Sorry PBBBBBFT! I could not resist that one.

  19. Pedant @ 981 (continued)

    I heard it again. Latham said: “You can put it straight into the ballot box, totally blank”

    I must have confused it with my own wishes about what to do with Latham.

    Psephos @ 1205

    “On the other hand, your typical swinging voter may well be a low income worker, though more commonly white collar than blue, and not usually unionised.”

    This is only because there are more white collar workers than blue collar, and more non-unionists than unionists.

  22. Ok, so recently polls have favoured Labor 2+ points now they’re favouring the Liberals by 2 points. Doesn’t really make much sense to me. I suppose the polls were supposed to be close in 2004 and we know what happend there.

  26. 51-49
    Phhhhhhfb. Phhhbbb. bbbb.

    HAHHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAA! Oh, stop, that is priceless, I will wake my slumbering bairns!

    How do you feel guys???

    No, don’t tell me, shhhh. Shhhh. Can you hear that too.

    It sounds like Dawn French…. singing an Aria.. Can you believe it?

    Damn that evil empire the MSM. Which tragic Labor hero will save Australia now from the Coalition Drongo-beam???

  28. Mmm, interesting spelling in that last one of mine!

    What I meant was:

    “I think that earlier 51Lib -49 Lab is just an accidental overflow from someones guessing competition.”

  30. Mick Wilkinson@1326

    51-49
    Phhhhhhfb. Phhhbbb. bbbb.

    HAHHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAA! Oh, stop, that is priceless, I will wake my slumbering bairns!

    How do you feel guys???

    No, don’t tell me, shhhh. Shhhh. Can you hear that too.

    It sounds like Dawn French…. singing an Aria.. Can you believe it?

    Damn that evil empire the MSM. Which tragic Labor hero will save Australia now from the Coalition Drongo-beam???

    It ain’t over till the Ghost speaks. 🙂

  33. Pebbles

    [Mick, you’re boring. Go away]

    Look fluff-cortex, Mining companies are boring too.

    Would you like them to stop? 🙂

  35. Labor Party launch tomorrow needs to accentuate the positive. List the achievements in only 3 years. Consolidate the election promises and give a vision for the future. Brief reference to Rabbott who will destroy all of this and endanger Australia’s financial future with his ignorance of and disinterest in the economy.

  43. Why the keck didn’t Cassidy pick up on Abbott when he compared the cost of Australia’s NBN to South Korea & Japan – when he completely ignored the geographical differences?

    Why indeed?

    The *new version * of the minerals tax is estimated to bring in $11.5 B pa.

    Industry scources say the NBN will come in well under $43 B.
    Some are saying under $ 30 B tops.

    So… The cheque from the miners abbott has vowed to tear up would pay outright for the NBN in about 3 years.

    Why haven’t any of the lazy sods in the media asked abbott why he opposes such vital strategic infrastructure for our nation and why he would rip up such a huge ongoing cheque ?

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