Morning marginals madness

Morning my time, anyway. Polling action from overnight:

Roy Morgan has targeted three widely spread electorates with small sample polls of about 300 respondents each, with margins of error approaching 6 per cent. These show the Liberals with a 3.1 per cent lead in Macquarie (a 3.2 per cent swing) and the Liberal National Party with a 2.5 per cent lead in Leichhardt (a 6.6 per cent swing), while in the long-forgotten Perth seat of Brand Labor retains a lead of 53-47, a swing against them of 3.1 per cent. The poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday evenings.

• Via Ross Hart in comments, we learn of a poll by Tasmanian outfit EMRS of that state’s marginal seats of Bass and Braddon which has both “safe” for Labor. Only figures from Bass are offered, which after exclusion of non-respondents are 43 per cent Labor, 34 per cent Liberal and 20 per cent Greens (who have a history of doing unduly well in EMRS polls), for a Labor two-party vote of 57 per cent and a swing in their favour of 6 per cent. UPDATE: More at the Launceston Examiner. Of Braddon we are told Labor is on 40 per cent and the Greens on 13 per cent, and I believe this is without distribution of the undecided.

• The Tweed Daily News/Northern Star has produced a poll of 400 respondents in the NSW north coast seat of Richmond, which appears to have been conducted in-house and should thus be treated with caution. Certainly it suffers a problem common to such polls: an undecided rate of 24 per cent, presumably resulting from a failure to twist respondents’ arms with a follow-up “leaning towards” question. For what it’s worth, the results show Labor in trouble: primary votes without exclusion of the undecided are 30 per cent for Labor incumbent Justine Elliot, 26 per cent for Liberal challenger Joan van Lieshout, 9 per cent for Nationals and 10 per cent for the Greens. If nothing else the poll suggests the Nationals are no longer competitive in the seat that was once home to the Anthony dynasty.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,378 comments on “Morning marginals madness”

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  1. Maybe Latham could go and do a “town haller’ with Tony on Sky? Or would that be too much of a meeting of like minds?

  2. [I think pauline pantsdowne might be in brisbane on wednesday

    who knows where she will end up]

    It would make Tone’s the Lone Ranger style appearance actually worth watching Gus.

    🙂 I shall live in hope of that, or maybe the Chaser??

  3. Psephos.. a lot of the guys that worry me, that vote Liberal even though they say they think about it. The kind of guys who unprovoked launch into an attack on boat people or who unthinkingly whinge about Labor.. a lot of them happen to be tradies.

  4. imacca,

    [However, i wonder if anyone out there has given any thought to the look on Abbootts face if a convincing Julia Gillard look alike turned up??]

    I heard that Mark Latham & Pauline Hansen will be turning up with a big Channel 9 film crew! 😉

  5. its tone’s position that he wont even do a JOINT town-haller? Or just not the economic debate?

    I would say stick to your guns Julia. Youre onto a winner when Abbott panics into an extra presser

  6. Drake
    [Mick,

    It’s serotonin, not seratonin.]

    Where’s my ‘for goodness sake’?

    Are you trying to rip me off???

  7. grog

    i was push polled yesterday by some mob called ask australia or someat

    same sort of push polling

    when it came to boats

    I said use truthy and his tinny

    the girl giggled

    I think it was a fib front meself

    🙁

  8. 1222 Polling indicates that about twice as many people think that Labor will win than the tories, the betting markets are just a representation of that – nothing more.

  9. [ yeah but the seratonin in my head feels reaaaaalllllly nice, eh? ]

    All that is happening Mick is that you are sounding like a fruit cake. Get some sleep, eat well and do some exercise, it will ease the mental diarrhoea. Failing that large doses of Xanax.

  10. Grog

    Your “short post tonight” was…

    pretty long

    A great read as usual. Why the keck didn’t Cassidy pick up on Abbott when he compared the cost of Australia’s NBN to South Korea & Japan – when he completely ignored the geographical differences? It should have been jumped on as soon as the words came out of his mouth

  11. [it is ‘rose’ for goodness sake.]

    Alas, that is the problem when there is no edit button – unnoticed typos stay.

  12. [Polling indicates that about twice as many people think that Labor will win than the tories, the betting markets are just a representation of that – nothing more.]

    Do seat-by-seat betting markets reflect that also?

  13. “Tradies” are not blue collar workers, they are small business people, and are part of the core constituency of the Liberal Party (along with tobacco companies and corporate lawyers). One of the long term trends working against Labor has been the transfer of much skilled work from waged to contract labour, which shifts people out of the unionised workforce and into the small business class. On the other hand, many employees who used to think of themselves as privileged professionals, such as teachers, nurses and public servants, have been increasingly “proletarianised” and vote much more heavily Labor than they used to. So it probably balances out.

  14. How’s that whistle sound?

    TONY Abbott says he will take a stand against an extreme Muslim group he describes as “peddlers of hate” who have defamed Australian values.

    In an exclusive interview with the Herald Sun, the Liberal leader revealed that if he won next Saturday’s federal election he would move to prosecute the radical Hizb ut-Tahrir.

     http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/special-reports/tony-abbotts-war-on-hardline-muslims/story-fn5ko0pw-1225905106475 

  15. It’s fun sitting on GWCV’s twitter page, refreshing, and watching his number of followers increase.

    It’s gone up 8 in the past 5 minutes. Is that you guys? 😀

  16. Oh and of course after the inital plunge on Labor last week the mug money followed making the betting markets position even more extreme than the general publics.

  17. Andrew
    [its tone’s position that he wont even do a JOINT]

    It’s no point mate, Julia said she doesn’t inhale. Waste of good skunk, he said.

  18. [But not many politically conscious blue collar workers are swinging voters. They’re mostly solid Labor.]

    Yes understand that however the chap in this ad states at the end “you have lost my vote mr abbott”” meaning he was considering voting for the coalition but due to the reasons he outlined in the ad he was now not going to. so he was politically well informed swinging voter in this commercial.

  19. So, there does exist a remote theoretical posibility that Pauline Pantsdowne, the Chaser Boys, Latham and Hansen may all converge on Tony in Brisvegas on WEdnesday night???

    What kind of magnetism does this boy have!!!!!!!

    No matter the actual likelyhood of such a happy event, i will take what pleasure i can in the though that it just might happen, and if it does it will be videoed for posterity.

  20. Diogenes,

    [What about all of us who are always here and still know nothing?]

    You’ve been watching too many re-runs of Hogan’s Heroes, Dio.

    All of us who are always here are psephological experts now, under the guidance of William, Possum, Ari, & Antony!

    I think! 😉

  21. [Why the keck didn’t Cassidy pick up on Abbott when he compared the cost of Australia’s NBN to South Korea & Japan – when he completely ignored the geographical differences? It should have been jumped on as soon as the words came out of his mouth]

    Just wait till you see the soft ride Abbott gets on their QandA tomorrow night.

  22. psephos 1273 – agree – we vote along class lines to some degree – also like our parents –
    then maybe a drift towards the conservative as we grow older

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