Morning my time, anyway. Polling action from overnight:
• Roy Morgan has targeted three widely spread electorates with small sample polls of about 300 respondents each, with margins of error approaching 6 per cent. These show the Liberals with a 3.1 per cent lead in Macquarie (a 3.2 per cent swing) and the Liberal National Party with a 2.5 per cent lead in Leichhardt (a 6.6 per cent swing), while in the long-forgotten Perth seat of Brand Labor retains a lead of 53-47, a swing against them of 3.1 per cent. The poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday evenings.
• Via Ross Hart in comments, we learn of a poll by Tasmanian outfit EMRS of that state’s marginal seats of Bass and Braddon which has both “safe” for Labor. Only figures from Bass are offered, which after exclusion of non-respondents are 43 per cent Labor, 34 per cent Liberal and 20 per cent Greens (who have a history of doing unduly well in EMRS polls), for a Labor two-party vote of 57 per cent and a swing in their favour of 6 per cent. UPDATE: More at the Launceston Examiner. Of Braddon we are told Labor is on 40 per cent and the Greens on 13 per cent, and I believe this is without distribution of the undecided.
• The Tweed Daily News/Northern Star has produced a poll of 400 respondents in the NSW north coast seat of Richmond, which appears to have been conducted in-house and should thus be treated with caution. Certainly it suffers a problem common to such polls: an undecided rate of 24 per cent, presumably resulting from a failure to twist respondents’ arms with a follow-up “leaning towards” question. For what it’s worth, the results show Labor in trouble: primary votes without exclusion of the undecided are 30 per cent for Labor incumbent Justine Elliot, 26 per cent for Liberal challenger Joan van Lieshout, 9 per cent for Nationals and 10 per cent for the Greens. If nothing else the poll suggests the Nationals are no longer competitive in the seat that was once home to the Anthony dynasty.
pedro 1133 – yr right mate, unders is a betting term and the key to successful punting is getting the overs – I like the crush myself, but unfortunately sometimes the flucts can go against you
@scorpio,
I’m one of them 😀
Mick Wilkinson’s posts certainly indicate that there really is a great need for increasing the number and quality of maths teachers in schools!
Can’t think of much else to say about them. I couldn’t possibly suggest that it indicates the need for an increase in the one bit of the health system that the Mad Monk claims that he will give more money to, rather than cut.
Pedant @ 981 – Thanks for this clarification:
“That would be a silly thing for Mr Latham to have said, if he said it. It’s not illegal to cast an informal vote, and therefore it’s not illegal to advocate such a thing. Voters are, however, required to place their ballot papers in the ballot box (Electoral Act, section 233). Any voter who throws a ballot paper in the bin, or tries to take it out of a polling booth, is likely to find him(her)self in legal strife.”
Is it an offence, then, and not just silly, to advocate throwing a ballot paper in the bin?
The 60 minutes website says “Full transcript arrives Monday”.
‘socialists’ ? Name one. Clueless.
chinda
[The question is, what are the negatives in this approach for Julia?]
At best, she would like an Opposition Leader, at worst, like Mark Latham.
[we’ll I got to say it is an absolute myth about blue collar workers/swinging voters knowing nothing about politics. i have just watched an ad where a guy on a building site told me about the benefits of the stimulus package, trades training centres and the fact abbott is cranking up taxes. ]
But you’re assuming that “blue collar workers” and “swinging voters” are synonymous. No-one’s ever said that. Of course many blue collar workers are highly politically conscious – they’re called the trade union movement. But not many politically conscious blue collar workers are swinging voters. They’re mostly solid Labor. On the other hand, your typical swinging voter may well be a low income worker, though more commonly white collar than blue, and not usually unionised.
[Now you can call me cynical]
You’d be the most cynical Tory that has ever commented on PB. Squiggle.
Psephos@1179 “The things I do…”
There already is Saint Antony of the Split Booth, now we will have to find your martyr-name. Or are you a demon?
I dont think Latham said throw it in the bin
Lukas, Latham did not say to throw the ballot in the bin. He said to put your blank paper into the ballot box.
If newspoll comes in any worse than 52-48 all those punters that plunged Labor last week better start begging borrowing or stealing some money to lay off on Abbott.
Mr Squiggle at 1193
[You’d be the most cynical Tory that has ever commented on PB. Squiggle.]
I ought to take offence at that!
[I think some people will tell a pollster they are voting for Julia Gillard even though they intend voting for Tony Abbott.]
And their wives will do the reverse.
Steve Annabelle, then why were the polls largely accurate for Bligh and Redmond?
So, Abboott is going to do a Town Hall appearance on Wednesday night?
It could be a bit tacky for Julia to turn up unexpectedly i’ll admit as all we would get the next day would be “Poor Tony Ambushed” stories.
However, i wonder if anyone out there has given any thought to the look on Abbootts face if a convincing Julia Gillard look alike turned up??
The look, in the first seconds when ne notices her would be priceless i think. 🙂
[This may sound silly]
You’ll get no argument here Steve Annabelle.
🙂 🙂
Oooopps, are we allowed to laugh at ‘strange irrational’ people?
[Man did you REALLY bet $10 G like you said last night or are you chief shoveller of Horse Excrement with the Gillard campaign???]
Psephos at 1213
You might be right. However it will be an interesting election to see what the effect of having a female PM for the first time has on polling responses.
Steve Annabelle
I am voting for Albo in the privacy of my booth, cos I cant have Joe Hockadesian in the privacy of my boudoir.
I want to see how big the gender gap can get.
I am a devotee of St Godwin.
http://www.catholic.org/saints/saint.php?saint_id=3586
Whatever the political story tonight, it shall be drowned out amongst the bogan populace by Wirra abdicating from Dancing With the Stars
I ask again, why havent the betting markets moved today? A super-poll massive seat-haul to Abbott? Why not?
Even more interesting that news poll will be the media reports tomorrow. How they cover Abbotts pressers today and the whole debate/town hall back and forth.
Jules had a standing invite for a debate on the economy at anytime, all tone had to do was take it or leave it.
from twitter, a person was polled by Newspoll said the first question asked was
Do you think it is okay to kick out the pm (not those precise words)
Billy Bowe
[Gus
HAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHA!!
Mick, this is really immature.]
Yeah but the seratonin in my head feels reaaaaalllllly nice, eh? Hee Hee.
If that was meant as a slight, you might want to reconsider the open gates on religious vilification, condoning of sexually suggestive ACTU ads and the tolerance of sexist slurs against women (‘whining vagina’ = pebbles last night and ‘crying like a girl’ tonight).
Come now our transparently partisan Webmaster, you are not getting all moralistic on us now are you? 😛
..sorry, that was immature.
Will someone put the Mick troll down?
Barking
[One of the reasons this site is interesting is that there are people here who deserve to be read and spend years, yes years, talking about political theory.
Then there are fwits who blow in at election time.]
What about all of us who are always here and still know nothing?
‘I think some people will tell a pollster they are voting for Julia Gillard even though they intend voting for Tony Abbott.’
And what do you base this on? Women’s intuition?
Give yourself a break.
[It could be a bit tacky for Julia to turn up unexpectedly i’ll admit as all we would get the next day would be “Poor Tony Ambushed” stories.]
She’d be mad to do that.
Chinda63@1152
It looks desperate?
Really, the idea that Abbott can call the shots on debates and such in the position he’s in is ludicrous. The mere notion that Abbott could demand another Rooty Hill gets shot down straight away when it’s revealed that he’s too frightened to go face to face. Which was revealed almost immediately. All Gillard has to say in response is, “Well that wasn’t really a debate last week, was it? I’m open to a debate.” That’s plenty.
[and the Bradley effect showing.]
Gillard’s black?
Sportingbet and Centrbet bet did move a little- but they were giving the longest odds for the LNP
ltep, methinks the Lib leaners will have more second thoughts than Labor ones
[What about all of us who are always here and still know nothing?]
Some people are ineducable.
Imacca
I think pauline pantsdowne might be in brisbane on wednesday
who knows where she will end up
😉
I do wonder how many people actually watched Mark Latham on 60 minutes. My hunch is that most were watching Dancing with the Stars or Talking about my generation.
[from twitter, a person was polled by Newspoll said the first question asked was
Do you think it is okay to kick out the pm (not those precise words)]
Push poll?
DaveM
Wirra is gone – you ruined it for me.
grog, dont tell me newspoll is push polling
Come on Pebbles:
[rised to power ]
it is ‘rose’ for goodness sake. 🙁
[I am a devotee of St Godwin.]
The patron saint of invoking Hitler or the Nazis in a debate?
Well I woulnd’t say that.
Does Newspoll randomise the question order?
Psephos
Thank you – i am glad i have the internet thingie – so is Tone. Hopefully he will be able to find a saint at lightning speed with the NBN.
Re poll don’t get too excited here.
Remember as often as not you’ll cop a low end of the MOE as well – can even work in your favour.
Bring on the election.
I dont think I can handle any more of Tones’ semi-sedated “no, really, I’m quite sane” face on telly.
[I am a devotee of St Godwin.
The patron saint of invoking Hitler or the Nazis in a debate?]
No, no, St Godwin of the Miraculous Email.
[The patron saint of invoking Hitler or the Nazis in a debate?]
I thought it was St Godwin of Grech
I thought Grog they asked voting intention first?
Was the twitterer saying they were polled TONIGHT? That means no Newspoll until Tues