The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor leading 52-48, from primary votes of 38 per cent Labor (steady), 41 per cent Coalition (down one) and 14 per cent Greens (up one). There’s also that rare thing – an interesting finding on an attitudinal question, this being a plunge in the Coalition’s lead as “better to manage the economy” from 12 per cent to 1 per cent. Chief suspects: Labor’s Hewson-Costello ads and the Coalition’s costings confusion, much of which would have escaped the Sunday-to-Thursday time frame of the great Galaxy mega-poll.
UPDATE: Full results here. As in Nielsen, Julia Gillard’s personal ratings have improved: approval up one to 44 per cent and disapproval down three to 38 per cent, but Tony Abbott’s have as well, off the base of what was probably an unflattering result last week: approval up two to 43 per cent, disapproval down three to 46 per cent. Preferred prime minister is essentially unchanged, with both Gillard and Abbott up a point to 50 per cent and 35 per cent respectively. However, the poll confirms a general trend of the Labor vote being slightly “softer” than the Coalition. As well as closing the economy gap from 47-35 to 44-43, Labor has also pulled further ahead as best party to handle climate change, from 33-26 to 35-22, while the Coalition lead on asylum seekers has widened incrementally from 42-29 to 43-29.
TSOP
Good then, because I too am interested in what you come up with.
Having said that, when some one posted 51/49 to LNP prior to the official poll, I nearly had heart failure!!
[William, is there any hard data to show average pre-election poll numbers for the Greens compared to actual election results from past elections? Do we expect that 14% to hold up?]
I don’t, quite. But my records of pre-election polling don’t support the idea that it happens systematically. I do think it tends to happen though when a minor party’s vote gets engorged by protest voters, who have a tendency to revert to type on polling day.
evan, latham was very bad but of no consequence to the campaign at this point
GO the Greens. 14% will hopefully translate to at least 12% on polling day, even though Newspoll underestimated the Greens in 2007.
You Laborites better hope the Greens can pick up that ACT senate seat. Then ALP won’t have to wait until July 1.
The last Newspoll had the Labor primary on 38% as well.
[Newspoll 6-8 August 2010* 42 38 13 7 ]
Cant help thinking that if the Libs had taken on the NBN they would be in a much better position
william, i’m willing to bet at least a few of the % of Greens PV will come back to Labor on the day. I wonder if Gillard will announce anything tomorrow to assist that process
Too many +’s and -‘s – 38 is steady.
[Why was everyone so worried about Rudd’s appearance on Channel 7 earlier tonight?]
It was merely worry that the report may be skewed to make Rudd look like the victim of Julia and play up the divided house meme.
[ Jules will murder Abbott in this last week ]
That would be one way to solve the problem, I would venture a bit extreme but no doubt extremely effective.
[This poll shows economic advertisements and announcements have been extremely effective.]
I think there is more to it than that. The opposition has landed some serious self-inflicted blows.
[HHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHA!]
Bilbo, i counted. There were 42 Haha..s . It’s time for moderation for Micky Mouse.
lwp
Swmbo reckon tone does all this eexercise cos TONE will personally turn around the boats
*picture a steamy timor sea, a rickety boat, jammed to the gunwhales whiff jibber-jabbers
when out of the blue, A-Tone appears in his speedos and speedily tows the dilaidated vessel back to indonesia and among their own kind
All in a nights work for the human tugboat*
🙁
It was the look on Costello’s face as he received the expected laugh that made that ad.
The smirk strikes again.
No one has yet considered the possibility that Labor could suffer a swing against it, yet pick up some seats, ala 1987.
The numbers at 52% to 48% TPP to the ALP are all to the good, but the really satisfying number is on the question of ‘better economic manager’ where the ALP has closed a 13 point gap 3 weeks ago down to a single point.
JG only needs to stay on message during the final 6 days – hammer the Coalition on the Economy, the uncosted policies, their opposition to the stimulus that saved the nation from the worst of the GFC, Health and Hospitals, Education and the NBN.
No other issues should be allowed to intrude, and the ALP is, if not yet home and hosed, at least in the dressing sheds and vigourously towelling themselves off.
…. and suck eggs, Mick Wilkinson!
[Having said that, when some one posted 51/49 to LNP prior to the official poll, I nearly had heart failure!!]
You and me both!
leftwingpinko
Whinging wally
I still pine for whinging wendy from 87
andrew
[pinko, his lost the economy. all he has is boats]
and batts…haven’t we heard about them quite enough already
I would like to know the exact figure, there is a world of difference between 51.6 and say 52.3 – yeh I know about the margin for error but I would still prefer the latter.
Will the lower than desired primary vote matter?
ltep, Andrew thanks 🙂
I was such a nervous nellie that I joined OH to watch Midsomer Murders and fell asleep. Was almost too scared to come back and check for a poll.
Wot a great feeling for Julia and we Laboristas for the launch tomorrow night.
Is it going to be on the ABC or just Sky?
[I would like to know the exact figure]
Pedro, it was 54-46 until Bilbo intervened.
Can we make a rule that we DONT post poll tweets other than GWV, although I note that his/her source let him/her down this time
If the Greens get 10% they will have done amazingly well. They got 7.79% on 07. 10% would be a 28% increase in their vote. That would be incredible – even given their “low” base
The ratings for tonight will be interesting: did Rudd on Channel 7 get more viewers than Latham on Channel 9, or vice versa? 😉
Good news about the latest News Poll – will the Liberals start imploding and Abbott will progressively shake off the restraints put on him by Minchin? 😆
Dont forget Q&A
This must mean that there are “big” swings on in different directions. League and the West vs AFL
Didn’t the Gruen guy on the right say it was an effective ad, and that the younger guy on the other side and the former Labor strategist were the ones who didn’t like it.
Now, WHY wont Abbott debate Gillard on the economy?
Yes I think the damage to the Liberals economic credentials has been largely self inflicted given their refusal to debate on the economy and the “dog ate my homework” excuses on not submitting their policies for costing. These have gotten a fair bit of run on the TV news.
[Cant help thinking that if the Libs had taken on the NBN they would be in a much better position]
I agree, I am a Liberal voter and the only two times I have seriously cringed this campaign have been
1) when the 170,000 net migration number was announced
2) when abbott couldn’t talk tech properly with Red Kerry
If the economy issue is even stevens, then its other issues putting the ALP in front
The Greens have now taken over from the Dems as the “default” opinion poll answer for people who don’t like either of the two major parties, of which there are a lot at present. This Green vote is very soft and a lot of it will go back to the majors on polling day. I still think the Greens will do well, but not this well.
I think they’ll pick up a couple of Senate seats, but not win Melbourne. My Vic sources tell me Cath Bowtell is proving a ripper candidate, and that the sisterhood is working flat out for her, which counts for a lot in Fitzroy and Brunswick. The fact that she has said she supports same-sex marriage has also helped a lot in the inner city areas.
[This poll shows economic advertisements and announcements have been extremely effective.
I think there is more to it than that. The opposition has landed some serious self-inflicted blows.]
Refusing to release your costings would have to be a seriously shifty, incompetent look – to that small percentage of voters who were aware.
The Liberals can’t win from 41% PV
‘All AButt has are his boats’
and a bathtub to play with them in.
pseph
the truce
With a good week of campaigning – on the economy and the NBN, the PV will be 40 on the day.
Night all,
[Having said that, when some one posted 51/49 to LNP prior to the official poll, I nearly had heart failure!!]
Yes it was like hearing the siren go and the opposition had kicked a goal after the siren only to realise it was a bad dream and you woke up to reality again.
The real question should be, who are the 48% who have found, ‘stop the boats, stop the waste…’ repeated ad nauseum with no policy substance whatsoever to be a persuasive argument?
If Abbott has pressure put on him tomorrow to answer why he refused to debate Julia on the economy, he will buckle and start to flounder.
Otherwise he will perform okay. It will all depend if he is subjected to any scrutiny.
What’s excellent with this Newspoll result is that the primaries are still moving in the right direction for Labor (+1). Barring leaks, etc. this week, Labor’s primary vote should be around 40% plus there’ll be around 2% shaved off the Green vote that will go to Labor on Saturday. Prediction: Labour with a primary vote of around 42% next Saturday
[That’s not good for the Libs.]
@Dio 7 Agreed.
1) It shows perhaps those ads are making an impact with voters and 2) Will it force Tony Abbott to a debate?
I know nothing about elections really – could we get 52 2pp and still lose like the tories did in SA.
Seriously though, Abbott’s only chance of winning is to win the economic argument. What has he got to lose by chancing it with an economic debate. he just needs to sloganise as he has done all campaign
If Libs are down 1 and Greens up 1 it would be a good guess that overall the 2PP has moved over 52?
Pheww!! That’s such a relief after that 51-49 to baddies rumours. Now hopefully Julia can SQUASH the Libs in the last week and win 55-45.
[The Liberals can’t win from 41% PV]
I wouldn’t think so, because Tory voters just about always vote Tory. The Tories therefore seldom pick up much by way of preferences.
Gus, I love my furry feral friends in the Greens deeply and sincerely. I report, you decide.