Patricia Karvelas in The Australian:
Liberal strategists believe they are in line to easily win at least seven Labor seats and retain their own most marginal ones – but concede they are still falling short of being able to take Government. A senior Liberal strategist said the Queensland seats of Leichhardt and Longman are as “good as gone” to Labor and that Health spokesman Peter Dutton would easily retain the seat of Dickson – which has become notionally Labor because of a redistribution. The Liberals also believe they are in line to take Dawson on a 2.4 per cent margin from Labor. In NSW they say they will easily keep their seats of Gilmore, and Macarthur, but are not as confident about the battleground seat of Lindsay in western Sydney. But they believe they can pick up Robertson and Macquarie. In WA, the Liberals believe they could pick up Hasluck and keep Swan.
Mark Simpkin on ABC Television:
Labor MPs are calling Mark Latham all sorts of things, of which the most polite is “unwelcome distraction”. One minister told the ABC the government would have lost if the election had been held in the second or third weeks of the campaign, but it’s slowly clawing its way back, making a distraction-free final week crucial.
Simon Canning in The Australian:
THE Australian Labor Party has spent nearly $5 million advertising on metropolitan television and radio, and in newspapers in the first three weeks of the election campaign, outspending the Liberals by more than $1.3m. In the first concrete ad spending figures for the election compiled by the Nielsen Company, the ALP spent $4.86m on ads until August 7, as it worked to gain an early advantage over the Liberals. The ACTU, running a campaign against the possibility of a Liberal government reintroducing Work Choices, has emerged as the third biggest spender during the first three weeks, investing $2.13m. Spending by all three groups is believed to be significantly higher than Nielsen reports with subscription TV, regional radio and regional newspapers not yet accounted for … Labor looks unlikely to match the massive spend of the Liberals during the 2007 campaign, when they invested $14.4m during the course of the campaign.
Further to the last item, Wednesday’s Gruen Nation aired results from market research company Xtreme on the volume of party television advertising. They found that from the day the election was called until last weekend, the Liberals aired 736 ads to Labor’s 635. Over half of the deficit was accounted for by Perth, where a Liberal Party engorged by mining donations has been able to blitz Labor by 151 ads to 83. The market hardest hit by both parties was Brisbane with 197 ads for Labor and 188 Coalition ads. In Sydney the score was 188 Labor and 153 Liberal; in Melbourne, 128 Coalition and 83 Labor; in Adelaide, 116 Coalition and 84 Labor.
My thought regarding Weatherill is that he is clearly canvassing for the job and selling his virtues. If Labor are knocked into opposition, Don might be tempted to do a deal with Jay, similar to the one with Rann (ie. you are a left-wing progressive, but you’ll lead a right wing Labor govt.)
So, Dio.. which seats do you feel you have good internal knowledge of.. and is there much indication of the trend?
I think Port Adelaide is ready to fall. Mark Butler is clearly a lousy candidate! 😉 😛
[My Say,
He is definitely a man, a doctor at RHH.
I am still wondering if Denison can be thrown into the hung parliament mix. Sydney may also be an outside, outside, outside chance for the Greens but no more than that.]
yes i had franklin in mind when you ask me the second time as i had sent all the names of candidates to our son by email he is overseas. I have never heard of this gentleman before but Jonathan Jackson is the son of a previous attorney general in the labor for many years and she was quite well respected i beleive, so his name is out there.
[The NSW Govt were on the nose in 2007 as well and we all know what happened there :-)]
Yeah, the Liberals put up Peter Debnam.
[William – I know they are only text so don’t take up much room, but how many comments in total do you think Crikey are storing for you?
554,64 ]
so is everything here that is written stored in crickey computers some how.
[Yeah, the Liberals put up Peter Debnam.]
Hmmm, if only there was a federal equivalent of Peter Debnam… oh wait! There is…
budgie smugglers… conservative philosophy… a little bit of hard Christian adherence…
It’s clear Peter Debnam is the same as…. Julia Gillard! 😛
http://randomactofblogness.blogspot.com/2010/05/anti-tony-abbott-facebook-groups.html
[It’s also good to see that this sanitary napkin has more friends than Tony Abbott]
Howard is campaigning in Perth tomorrow so Abbott is also going, sigh!! father and son together and will meet mommy, the chill machine, Bishop the boring…a family reunion… so disgusting
Pebbles,
If you think the Don will do a deal with Wetherill for the leadership, then you must be a very optimistic Bolkus lefty.
Whatever the so’called independent outfit finds in regard to the the Lib’s costings the Treasury will tear then apart after the election.
.
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Everytime-you-vote-for-Tony-Abbott-god-kills-a-kitten/115381868478475
Yep.. Yep…
Well Hawk isn’t cowering to a bunch of bogans, “we are all bloody boat people”. What in the hell happened to the Labor party.
[If you think the Don will do a deal with Wetherill for the leadership, then you must be a very optimistic Bolkus lefty.]
No. Of course, I’m not. I just like entertaining possibilities.
Rudd on his Twitter site talking about campaigning in Flynn with Chris Trevor and promoting the NBN!
I told ya all that the Ruddster would be Julia’s secret weapon. 😉
[Hmmm, if only there was a federal equivalent of Peter Debnam… oh wait! There is…
budgie smugglers… conservative philosophy… a little bit of hard Christian adherence…
It’s clear Peter Debnam is the same as…. Julia Gillard! 😛 ]
The thing that annoys me about NSW politics is that if the Tories were half decent, they would have won in 2007. Everyone knew the Government was on the nose, it was stuffing up etc. There were a mountain of reasons to boot them out.
And then the Liberals turned up with Debnam, who said he’d hand over IR powers to Canberra and then essentially gave up with a week to go. It was pathetic.
[so is everything here that is written stored in crickey computers some how.]
I expect it’s all kept on a server in Belarus or somewhere. Not really a tech-head.
[Whatever the so’called independent outfit finds in regard to the the Lib’s costings the Treasury will tear then apart after the election.]
We want their dodgy analysis known before the election.
[Well Hawk isn’t cowering to a bunch of bogans, “we are all bloody boat people”. What in the hell happened to the Labor party.]
Well Alex Hawke certainly has changed his stance! 😆
Seriously though, it’s easy to make commentary on the political scene from the comfort of being a former PM from 20 years ago. He never had to run a political party post-Howard counter-revolution
[I expect it’s all kept on a server in Belarus or somewhere. Not really a tech-head.]
Thats Okay, you aren’t running for PM (yet)
[here that is written stored in crickey computers some how.
I expect it’s all kept on a server in Belarus or somewhere. Not really a tech-head]
o thank god for that i thought my kids may google me.
seems a touch desperate to get Howard on the campaign trail
another observation is that Abbott not only does not understand technology and its role in the nation’s future, but he does not care. that’s the telling point – he has not taken the effort to even learn some sensible “yes, but our policy is…….” lines. saying he is not bill gates, or julia is the same, or whatever is off-the-cuff laziness
So is there a Nielsen due out tonight? Anyone heard from dah GhostwhoVotes??
i have actully lost sleep over that william
[imacca
Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 7:45 pm | Permalink
So is there a Nielsen due out]
some said here they delayed it till sunday
[I expect it’s all kept on a server in Belarus or somewhere. Not really a tech-head.]
Awaits boerwar to do a string of new “I am not a tech head, but…” lines 😆
If Jesus, Buddah or Mohammed were alive they would vote Labor or democrat. Why are the right wing nut jobs the ones that claim to be religious. They are the pharasies of todays world. God will surely punish them for their lack of respect for an egalitarian, fair and decent society.
William may be you could write a book about the technical age of computer twitter
face book and bloggs or even for a doctorate?
from all the stored information.
This channel 9 promo for election coverage is really quite odd…combining Jerry Bruckheimer trivialisation with, as someone earlier noted, rather inappropriate cut and paste endorsement from Gillard
I am not confident that there is intended irony
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVbZBWauAh0
i should of added to regarding elections in the modern age
Buddha would’ve voted for Senator Online, thank you! 😛
[I am not confident that there is intended irony]
how strange i will not be watching that covourage is that what they are talking about the dramatic music is enough to put me off
I hate sound and words that really belong in movie
[ I expect it’s all kept on a server in Belarus or somewhere. Not really a tech-head.
Awaits boerwar to do a string of new “I am not a tech head, but…” lines 😆 ]
I’m still chuckling from last night…
Now back to election
I have NSW- gilmore, macquarie, robertson lib gain (+ good chance in Lindsay)
QU- Dawson, Herbert, Leichardt lib gain (good chane in Forde)
WA- Swan gain
NT- Solomon gain
Lab- Mckewan gain with good chance in Hughes, Macarthur, and Latrobe
Greens- gain Melb
So ALP -8, -7 to libs, -1 to Greens
remarkably, the other sleeper bunch of voters who will (truly) benefit from the NBN in the short term are gamers. These people live on the net, play massively parallel games such as World of Warcraft and its clones – speed, reliability, no latency to the big servers in the USA are critical. they don’t watch TV, but the blogsphere is abuzz with 1 gigabits per second vs the horse and buggy of the libs
the filter is a problem however, and Julia should gracefully say “we have listened and decided to can it………..” straight after canning the Citizens Climate Change Forum
[he has not taken the effort to even learn some sensible “yes, but our policy is…….” lines.]
Thats the bit i found most freaky about his 7:30land appearance. It was like he hadnt even been briefed on ANYTHING about the 6 billion dollar policy they had launched that day. Surley they should have at least given him some scripted lines to regurgitate that were half way plausible??
[William may be you could write a book about the technical age of computer twitter
face book and blogs or even for a doctorate?
from all the stored information.]
Which was sort of my point in the original question – the archives of all this sort of stuff may well interest people years from now.
ps – that is, if there is still an internet, and Labor are not throwing money at something that is about to disappear!
boerwar – you should put the entire bluey saga together so his fans can read them all
sprocket_@987
But as Mark Newton on Twitter said- with 1Gig NBN the effect of a filter would only be a reduction of 0.8 of the speed 🙂
[William may be you could write a book about the technical age of computer twitter
face book and blogs or even for a doctorate?
from all the stored informatio]
one proviso he must dedicate the book to all here and list the on line names. lol
lol lol
IT
[Wetherill will only win if the Right faction fall over which will happen over Don Farrell’s dead body. Now, there’s an interesting factional thought.]
I saw Farrell in a photo (I’ve forgotten his face already). He looked surprisingly young and fit. For some reason I thought of him as more of a father figure (perhaps it’s the Godfather nickname). He looks like he’ll be around for quite a while.
Would the other sleeper voters be the young ones who live in share homes, university
dormitories and flats apartments and only have mobile phones
But as Mark Newton on Twitter said- with 1Gig NBN the effect of a filter would only be a reduction of 0.8 of the speed 🙂
-it’s the principle
– the internet is free and unconstrained and we are all adults
gotta go guys, but great discussion on this site
Just seen my first only Pyne ad – voiced by SA Lib leader Isobel Redmond, and not by Pyne which makes a lot of sense really. Starting on the Murray and water then progressing onto the Campbelltown Leisure Centre then and Gorge and Fosters Road upgrades! I can’t ever recall any capital city ad going THAT local before. Extraordinary.
Pyne is worried as the demographics have changed. Gilles Plains has been almost fully redeveloped and the ex-Housing Trust homes now have three times more people in the area than before, and they are either Trust, refugees or from other low socio-economic backgrounds – not Pyne fans. In the East of his electorate, younger Italian families are more Labor than Liberal and in the south, the blue rinse set have been passing away.
As I posted here before, his polling showed it 50-50, and I am betting things have not changed so hence the panic buttons have been pushed.
If the State Labor government were clever they could announce upgrades to Gorge and Fosters Roads themselves and cut Pyne’s rug from under him.
Moved too far to the right.
As I noted yesterday, here in the urban part of McEwan (made roads, concrete gutters to lie in) we’ve received twice as many handouts from the Libs than Labor. A drive into the more rustic parts during the week found most power poles sporting a Cain (Lib) poster. It’s less intense than we had thought it would be. Usually we get ex-PMs carrying our shoppiong and so forth.
The only real fun has been the Lib how to vote that forgot to add anyone elses’ party, so if you followed it you wouldn’t know you had voted FFirst. Their (FF) candidate is a local councillor previously suspected of being a Liberal.
Succumbed to Vote-a-matic!
Labor 42, Green 37, Donkey 15, Liberal 5
I am actually surprised by this (would have predicted Libs much higher in fact!), but reading that Labor is on 40, Greens 35, Libs 17 makes me think that it probably has some inherent bias against the Libs.
Or else my inner “Shy Tory” was a bit too shy!
Those who have not yet decided will make up their minds progressively from Wed/Thurs/Fri – and many on polling day. Newspoll on election day will be different to Newspoll this weekend. They generally get it very right at the end. J needs a strong week starting with the “launch”. Tony will campaign flat out – I predict he will go the last 48 hours non-stop (ala the US Presidential races) visiting night shifts etc. J will need to match him. Its called momentum.
IT and TSOP
[If you think the Don will do a deal with Wetherill for the leadership, then you must be a very optimistic Bolkus lefty.]
I’m told that it wouldn’t happen over Don’s dead body. Literally. There would need to be quite a few more dead bodies before Weatherill got the job.
cc
The only seats in SA that are of any interest are Sturt and Boothby. They say Boothby will go before Sturt but Labor aren’t confident of either ATM. Evidently the polling is all over the place. The Libs are putting plenty into Sturt esp and Boothby.
God am I sick of seeing Pyne ads. I have seen three already today. All in prime time.
@996, yep by the look of it Pyne is looking in trouble.