Patricia Karvelas in The Australian:
Liberal strategists believe they are in line to easily win at least seven Labor seats and retain their own most marginal ones – but concede they are still falling short of being able to take Government. A senior Liberal strategist said the Queensland seats of Leichhardt and Longman are as “good as gone” to Labor and that Health spokesman Peter Dutton would easily retain the seat of Dickson – which has become notionally Labor because of a redistribution. The Liberals also believe they are in line to take Dawson on a 2.4 per cent margin from Labor. In NSW they say they will easily keep their seats of Gilmore, and Macarthur, but are not as confident about the battleground seat of Lindsay in western Sydney. But they believe they can pick up Robertson and Macquarie. In WA, the Liberals believe they could pick up Hasluck and keep Swan.
Mark Simpkin on ABC Television:
Labor MPs are calling Mark Latham all sorts of things, of which the most polite is “unwelcome distraction”. One minister told the ABC the government would have lost if the election had been held in the second or third weeks of the campaign, but it’s slowly clawing its way back, making a distraction-free final week crucial.
Simon Canning in The Australian:
THE Australian Labor Party has spent nearly $5 million advertising on metropolitan television and radio, and in newspapers in the first three weeks of the election campaign, outspending the Liberals by more than $1.3m. In the first concrete ad spending figures for the election compiled by the Nielsen Company, the ALP spent $4.86m on ads until August 7, as it worked to gain an early advantage over the Liberals. The ACTU, running a campaign against the possibility of a Liberal government reintroducing Work Choices, has emerged as the third biggest spender during the first three weeks, investing $2.13m. Spending by all three groups is believed to be significantly higher than Nielsen reports with subscription TV, regional radio and regional newspapers not yet accounted for … Labor looks unlikely to match the massive spend of the Liberals during the 2007 campaign, when they invested $14.4m during the course of the campaign.
Further to the last item, Wednesday’s Gruen Nation aired results from market research company Xtreme on the volume of party television advertising. They found that from the day the election was called until last weekend, the Liberals aired 736 ads to Labor’s 635. Over half of the deficit was accounted for by Perth, where a Liberal Party engorged by mining donations has been able to blitz Labor by 151 ads to 83. The market hardest hit by both parties was Brisbane with 197 ads for Labor and 188 Coalition ads. In Sydney the score was 188 Labor and 153 Liberal; in Melbourne, 128 Coalition and 83 Labor; in Adelaide, 116 Coalition and 84 Labor.
Labor not out of the woods in Leichhardt Entsch will be saved by Greens preferences
So last night we’re told the Coalition are “just in front where it counts” and now we’re told they will fall short?
Blogosphere has failed miserable in providing a new age journo challenge to MSN , and Fulvio’s post annoyed me (agin to think of fighting MSN back)
Blogosphere has failed to expose MSN merrily daily ignoring a 8 billion black hole , Abbots daily refuse to answer Q’s , a horse & bugy Internet vs NBN , 28 billion in Treasury uncosted promises , a Lib CC polisy that Abbott says CC is crap , a large Debt scare when our 6% to GP is lowest in th West , a Co tax increase hitting grocerys etc , foregoing a Supa Profits tax , mythicaly claiming boats & more boats wont keep coming , cares for Hospitals but gorged a billion from them as Minister , a 97% success rate on a 16 billion BER in 9500 schools oz -wide , 1.4 million homes actualy is insulated , blocking any co2 mitigation Bill being intro in oz ,had 12 yrs to fix our Murray River and so ons to almost infinities
And I DO keep think of journo’s reaction of self presevation & professionel ego when Grog story blogged on disabilitiys hit Journo’s twitter tweets
Rather than one only Grog blog soon to be history stuff , why not a dedicated Net Site solely BUT very concise , for clear defined MSN distortions/ommissions with pollys statments sourced quoted proper & dated VS MSN actual words & dated for comparison…a la Media Watch Perhaps ‘left’ fight back , by shaming by name public (or is it instead too much efforts & just keep taking MSN slants denyin oz Public of info to make a objective decision)
my sensne of public disclosure of my list non/distorted disclosures wuldbe an ALP 21/8 2 PPT of min of 54/46 and a landslide But then MSN cannt be minimised by random criticol MSN Blogoshere posts and TV adds sure too expensive
Look it’s 8.30pm here in England on the evening of August 12th and whilst I am far away modern technology has meant it is easy being able to keep in touch with the Australian election (Abbott the luddite needs to wise up on the joys on the interweb).
I will predict now that the government will be returned with an increased majority. I am now convinced that the MSM are totally disconnected from the populous (a global phenomenon), contrast the ALP with the Coalition – and the Coalition is just not fit to govern, they are talentless. Only Turnbull is capable of being PM from their side and they are too ideologically riven to understand
The 5.00 ABC radio news in Melbourne led with this poll.
People throw the term “rogue” around when a poll like this comes up without explaining in any detail what they think went wrong. If the methodology is reasonable then the probablity of a given result decreases the further the result from the chosen sample departs from the population (i.e., if you could poll everyone). Unless they did something very wrong or fabricated it, you can’t just discard it as meaningless. Perhaps the resident marsupial can give us an analysis of what can cause a rogue poll.
Or in summary and this has ever been the case…..Abbott is unelectable as PM. Ignore all commentary that says oterwise….you know it makes sense….Abbott is unelectable. Beleive it or not Australians just aren’t that stupid as to elect Abbott.
Triton
#5
morgan 57.5/42.5 is moe 3% making possible Morgan at 54.5%/45.5%
then less morgan norm face to face slant of up to 3% could =a Newspoll of 51.5/48.5 , Pollsters moe is true , but is still a grat get out of jail card as well Trends more vip
There has been a lot of money invested in the Liberal party by vested interests. They are going to be so disappointed that Abbott is basically unelectable.
stan speaker
I agree, said on day 1 of the campaign 80+ to labor, and they had just made their job harder by dumping Rudd, but in the end Abbott is unelectable. Hayden’s drovers dog could beat him, and JG is a bit classier than the Hayden’s dog.
Stan, wonderful technology this Overland Telegraph thingy that allows you to keep in touch with the colonies eh what? Thank ggoodness for the LNP!
Oh Dear, The Nats and Libs are at war in Durack 🙂
http://www.watoday.com.au/federal-election/labor-liberal-doubleteam-riles-nats-20100811-11zm9.html
Our own Aristotile will be on ABC News Breakfast shortly 🙂
What is going on with Radio National Breakfast these days? The Morgan poll led the news at 6.00 am but Fran Kelly hasn’t said a word about it. In fact she just said something like “could there be a hung parliament?”
Yesterday she said something about how Gillard’s brisk campaigning ‘smacked of desperation’, she ran the Scalzi thing from Rooty Hill in full without saying a word of him being a young liberal. It’s all very strange.
$3
You’re on to something there, Ron. Something the equivalent of Wikileaks on media misrepresentation on the one hand, and political policy/truth by parties and politicians on the other.
Online is changing things so rapidly that the options should soon be there for the average punter, not just the politically informed, to know the truth.
It really was a disgrace that the home insulation program and the BER were treated as scandals and waste when they were not only valuable programs and helpful in fending off GFC slumps but a big investment in the future. Of course there was waste and stuffups in both, but fairly small in relation to the speed of implementing.
ABC RN might be coming around to some sort of balance,they are giving listener feedback 8:49 am
They are talking about listener response after rooty hill
And old Joel.
Sorry I meant 6:49. Now they are talking up a hung parliament. Did any one here email RN re rooty hill? At least for the abc a lot of emails may make a difference.
RN now talking hung parliaments….it will not happen. If it does god help us, Katter wants subsidies for farmers FFS!
And where do the independents come from, that’s ex National party members, now they hate party politics, hypocrities. Another prediction, greens won’t win Melbourne.
So libs spent almost same amount of time in advertising in Perth as they did in Sydney!?
Whats going on Frank.
WA is Howards bastion, they love his protege Tone.
People worried Tone will expand ABCC powers to bring the mining and gas workers under control.
Re Joel and ABC brekky.
In my e-mail of complaint to them I mentioned that the blogosphere and Tweeter were alive with reports the previous night to their broadcast that Joel was a self confessed Liberal.
One presumes major journos and news organisations keep up with Tweets etc.
Listening to the program just now I considered it shameful that they evaded their responsibility by simply quoting the Galaxy line that Joel had “slipped through”
and ignored two questions that relate to the responsibility of the ABC.
Firstly that they failed to be informed as to the Tweets which identified Joel.
Well, I presume they were unaware of the Tweets.
Secondly they did not address the issue of why they chose to play on air an outrageously blatant pro-Liberal Q and A between Joel and Tony whilst also playing, for ‘balance’ one presumes, a question that was a negative for Julia
.
The time given to the two questions may have been the same, time seems to be the criterion of choice for measuring balance by the ABC, but the impact was a negative for the ALP
and a positive for the Libs
.
That is not balance.
castle@18
Twiggy & Gina R have alienated the workers.
Tone and Howard need to hit WA as a dual act.
Remind voters of their legacy. Follow up with QLD.
Nah, couldn’t be. I saw Twiggy in fluro vest and no tie.
Those two are just ordinary folk struggling to make a living like the rest of us.
Ari coming up on ABC News 24 Breakfast.
Can’t get ABC24, need a set top, let us know what he says thanks Frank.
castle@24
Well he TOTALLY ignored Morgan, and was saying Labor can win on 51.5% 🙂
I wish. Still, I do believe Howard doing a bit of campaigning in WA should be helpful to Labor. Somebody mentioned that he was doing his bit in Qld now. That should help out very nicely.
Most ignored Morgan, except for some labor bloggers who it cheered and lib bloggers who sunk into deep depression.
Interesting to see how it affected Mick and Ryan.
Mick went from cheery condescending to abusive sarcasm.
Ryan went from Tone moves in for the kill to I think Abbott will go OK.
Tone did move in for the kill.
Trouble is he moved and swiveled so fast he ended up biting his own left butt cheek.
This enraged him so much he then swiveled again and bit his right butt cheek resulting in further howls.
Chrissy went to calm him with the result Tone bit his butt cheek proving squeals of delight from Chrissy which caused Tone to flee.
End result, Tone last seen fleeing with Chrissy in hot pursuit pleading bite me again Tone, bite me again Tone.
Sometimes when you go shopping for groceries and your hungry you end up buying more, ….uhm Castle have you had your breakfast yet? 😉
The turning point in this campaign will be proved to be the exact moment when Latham ambushed Gillard. Nine’s Gyngall messaged to his ‘troops’ (via his apology) that they had to raise their act. Since then, slightly clearer air has been given to the ALP. The swing back occurred immediately from that moment. While I never doubted that ALP would win this election, it’s now quite obvious that they will be returned, probably with a slightly increased majority. I base this prediction on 2 facts.
First, the body language coming from both camps. Anyone seeing Robb and Smith’s shambolic performance at the NBN presser would know that they were dripping sweat beads of anxiety. Abbott’s running to a beer hall stacked with vociferous supporters was that of a coward reaching for his comfort blanket.
The second reason is that the NBN has exploded as the dominant issue in the election. I invite anyone interested to check out Turnour’s online forum on Wednesday in Cairns (google Cairns Post) where the questions were coming in 3 to 1 on the NBN issue. The moderator had to appeal to questioners to ask questions on another topic. Entsch will lose that seat, as will a few other coalition members in regional Qld.
I’m predicting the NBN issue will mostly affect outer metrop and regional seats, as they’re the ones receiving slow internet access at the moment.
The MSM have been clueless on this issue. Kudos to Conroy who planted it in 2007 as ‘fibre to the node’, with 2010 in mind.
Interesting the seeming difference between Gruen figures (Libs have more TV ads) and the released financial data (Labor has spent more?). It almost makes me wonder if Channel Nine charges both sides the same cost per ad?
I may sound cynical but years ago I was in a Democrats branch and we tried to get an ad in the local (Quest Brisbane) paper but the sub editor didn’t put it on the page we paid for; much further back. The election before he had said there was no space left in the crucial pre-election edition. They would always offer a refund or follow up in the next edition but by then the damage was done. Ever since I have wondered about the biases of the individuals who actually control the ad spaces.
I’m surprised not more is being made about the fact that Abbott promised to have all announced policies in costing by today. Usually politicians wait until they get into government before they begin breaking promises. Abbott cannot even go two days.
The ABC reports that Robb will submit the Liberals promises for costing to an “independant” agency.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/08/12/2981532.htm
Who is the agency, the IPA? Ex-staff from Anderson’s Consulting? Will we get to see the wording of how they are asked to cost them? Any economic modelling? Labor is guilty of starting this last time, with their delayed submission, but the race to the bottom continues.
If we want an independnet blogosphere commentary here is one: the “Charter of Budget Honesty” or whatever its called, is useless. Unclear rules, no umpire, no consequences for failure.
Castle
Set top boxes are realy cheap. You can pick one up for under $50.00. It is worth having.
Sorry “really”
Socrates
Numbers alone are insufficient. We need to also see the assumptions.
Just watched 10 mins of ABC24
More than enough. All negatives to the government.
The plan announced a month ago is for King Rat to be in WA in the last week.
Annabel Crabb has a more honest write up of the Rooty Hill charade, including identifying the Young Liberal, Joel Scalzi, who asked Abbott a question.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/08/12/2980566.htm?site=thedrum
Ooops poor Telstra. 😉
BK
Precisely, that is why I said “Will we get to see the wording of what they are asked”. Of course it is garbage. Just by picking your favourite brand of economic rationalist, you can get whatever answer you want.
Kroger on Channel 9 this morning when asked if Abbott can win:
“Look… uhhh… er… there is every chance we could have a hung parliament”
First time I’ve ever heard him not say “The Coalition are heading to victory”.
dedalus
I would agree that when Latham jumped the shark ambushing Julia, the media were forced to get their act together.
Abbott has now said wtte that Latham reflects Labor’s poor judgment, because only a few election cycles ago, they had put him up as their Leader. Labor can’t be trusted.
The NBN has been the sleeper of this election, and is really the big difference between the parties.
….
is there a link to the on line chat with the member above to discussed is there text some where would be so interesting
This is not necessarily a good thing, but a cargo ship of Sri Lankan asylum seekers is headed for Canada, after changing course fmor Australia:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/08/12/2981551.htm
So Gillard has stopped the boats, or just changed their course? The only way to stop the boats, is to stop the wars that motivate their occupants.
yes abc 24 presnters look a bit this cannot be so looks
Thanks Victoria, iwas thinking of getting one so I could watch One HD for the sport, but a bit of a klutz when it comes to wiring.
One of the more hubristic comments made was from Bishop when she said coalition would let Kim stay as ambassador to USA.
Maybe she was trying to show magnanimity but may of reminded voters of Howards sacking of anyone and everyone with the remotest link to labor when he got in.
Spoke of an attitude we will spare this one because we know you like him.
And I had some crook salmon last dogma.
That’s because they are obsessing over these ‘leaks’. It started with Red Kerry last night, and Fran Kelly was still obsessing about it in her interview with Swan this morning. Meanwhile, there’s no attention given to the coalition just getting away with costings scrutiny. I have no idea what the commercials are doing, but I do expect better from a public broadcaster.
Great, Abbott and Latham are twins separated at birth, Abbott attacking Latham is Abbott attacking Abbott.
In the Herald Sun on the inside double page spread of Julia in Tasmania with tradies at a Trade Training Centre, with the header $1,700 extra to be given to apprentices.
There is a picture of her with couple of young tradies in background and one next to her planting a thank you kiss on the cheek. Very positive indeed.
I keep saying Labor will do well in VIC.